Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

Just now, Shamone said:

It could be worse. We could be drossers.

Until yesterday I had no idea they were both the same thing!  Apparently I should also demand that the company I occasionally sub for should just find me jobs, and give them to me, for free, because otherwise they're just something something blah blah backs of honest labour

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Shamone said:

It could be worse. We could be drossers.

My self esteem can only carry so much praise before I get embarrassed.

[spygirl]

25 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Not saying that this is not the case, but you got figures to support such a statement?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-56624799

The reports said there had been a "very slight decrease in the number of absences due to mental health in January", but added: "Although with a recorded absence rate of 28.8 per cent, mental health continues to dominate the primary reason for absences across the trust.

That number has been managed down, tru figures are getting towards 40%.

The abuse of staff is a straw grasping exercise, using the normal drunjs in AnE to try and justify those awful numbers.

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

16 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I would say that has a while to go yet, parabolically, I mean.

I agree, but i think we're getting there now. 

 

Not quite ready for one of those "I'M CALLING IT: BLACK MONDAY!!!" posts yet though. 😂

[Loki]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I agree, but i think we're getting there now. 

 

Not quite ready for one of those "I'M CALLING IT: BLACK MONDAY!!!" posts yet though. 😂

Not quite, but it feels close.  The parabolic event itself doesn't concern me as much as what will really kick it off.

Baring in mind the markets seem to love bad news.

[leonardratso]

i held swerso for ages in the red, it seemed it would never go up, but i kept adding and adding regularly every month, then on the last gold bull run it broke even and accelerated away like crazy, made me lots after i sold it down to get my stake back, but i left a lot in and kept adding again, its been red for a while now, im just waiting for rinse+repeat, ive got time.

swerso=SMITH WILLIAMSON SVS SANLAM GBL GOLD RES B

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Apparently not, we're all spivs.

Vultures!

Anyway I'll have to go, these wings won't flap on their own.

[DurhamBorn]

We dont need oil anymore said Helen Dean CEO of NEST so she sold NMW workers pension holdings in BP around £2 a share.

She was then awarded a CBE for services to pension saving 

https://corporate-adviser.com/new-years-honour-for-nest-ceo/

Tonight the government suspended competition law for the oil industry so they can collude on where to send supplies.

Systemic you see.

Helen Dean,you are a fraud,useless,a thief of ordinary workers saved Labour and a perfect example of all that is wrong with the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58701620

 

[DurhamBorn]

Workers already fleeced by government for tax to pay bennies and public sector workers retiring early on fat pensions decide they have had enough when employers decide to treat them even more like shit.20% sickness rate is the result.My partners care responder service is suffering very similar sickness rates and most of them are simply fleecing the 6 months full pay and have no intention of returning.BOE says inflation isnt a problem unless wages increase.Hmm 20% wage increases inbound.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10030329/Heathrow-bedlam-blamed-nightmare-new-rota-forcing-border-staff-work-12-hour-shifts.html

[macca]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Not saying that this is not the case, but you got figures to support such a statement?

40'000 less nurses working in the NHS since the Tories took over 11 years ago.. The wages and the cost of becoming a nurse after the Tories stopped the bursary are the biggest problem..

Well to be honest the Tories are the problem with everything,, they have fucked it all to death! And stolen all the money!

[Barnsey]

Shit, just remembered the hospitality VAT cut ends this month, back up to 12.5% from current 5%. The gut punches just keep coming. 

[macca]

My friend down the road drives petrol tankers,, He said during the scamdemic (BP sub contract out to his company)  they got rid of 20% of their drivers because people were using less fuel.

They are now asking them to come back, but drivers are refusing after being treated badly..

Wage incentive inbound!

[Barnsey]

https://corporate.nordea.com/article/67853/fx-weekly-green-new-deal-stagflation

Chart 7. Electricity prices are usually uncorrelated to the credit/economic cycle. The recent surge is politically driven

The worst case is that the ECB and BoE react to the current supply driven price increases with a tighter policy. Christine Lagarde has so far rejected that the ECB can influence energy prices (she is right), while the BoE sounds more and more hawkish in response to bizarre supply side effects on wages and prices in the UK.

What can central banks do if supply side driven inflation continues to surpass the nominal wage growth (that is more linked to demand driven inflation)? The answer is very little within the current toolbox.

The medium-to-long-term answer could be for central banks to exploit the possibility of doing true People’s QE rather than asset-swap QE. Asset-swap QE is almost per definition structurally disinflationary as it leads to a slowing velocity of the money base. The ultimate receiver of the (non-reserve currency) deposit in asset-swap QE is a financial counterpart of banks with access to the central bank. A pension fund deposit is almost per definition a “zero velocity” deposit. This could change with a true People’s QE program. When CBDCs are ultimately launched, it will also deliver the infrastructure needed for central banks to perpetually “lend out” digital fiat-reserves to each and every holder of a digital wallet at the central bank every month (read, everyone). It sounds far-fetched yes, but when you allow a central bank a new weapon in the armoury, they tend to utilize it!

We will exploit these differences in depth in a thematic next week. Stay tuned!

Chart 8. From asset swap QE to People’s QE.. A story on velocity

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Shit, just remembered the hospitality VAT cut ends this month, back up to 12.5% from current 5%. The gut punches just keep coming. 

Chinese buffer i use regular in Durham increased prices last week from £7.80 to £9.40,,il still use it but will not order a free water instead of a coffee so lowering my cost.I tend to use it round 3pm as parking is free after 2pm so its quite quiet,but last week it was quieter than usual ,lovely food,but only 8 customers while i was there.

Im going out on the town the next few weekends so it will be interesting to see if its busy and the prices etc compaired to spoons.

[Noallegiance]

In over a decade of learning about this stuff and listening to opinions that I have learned are way wide of the mark and tainted with ideology rather than practicality, I have committed to addressing further comment in person with regard to current situations in all fields of life as follows:

Shit be fucked up.

[King of Fools]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

In over a decade of learning about this stuff and listening to opinions that I have learned are way wide of the mark and tainted with ideology rather than practicality, I have committed to addressing further comment in person with regard to current situations in all fields of life as follows:

Shit be fucked up.

Fuck it, innit?

Thats my philosophy.

[leonardratso]

ooot on the toon, my god those dividends must be too high, such extravagance.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ooot on the toon, my god those dividends must be too high, such extravagance.

What? You mean chilli sauce as extra on the kebab? (disclaimer. I love kebab, especially Doner wraps).

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Shit, just remembered the hospitality VAT cut ends this month, back up to 12.5% from current 5%. The gut punches just keep coming. 

That means a pint will be even more expensive. 

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

DB lays out his roadmap years ago, executes through ups and downs, probably doubles his net worth ... and finally goes mental! Watch out, Durham, it's going to get messy (but he probably has home brew stuffed down his socks).

Ha i got some lovely Reiss trousers and a Ted Baker shirt 2nd hand on Ebay though ,14% of new cost and as good as new.Noticed lots of quality stuff being sold at the moment so its time to splash out and stock up.Only problem being a contrarian il probably walk in the cocktail bar strutting like a peacock but it will be empty as none of the birds fixed their energy deals and are skint,or worse il get tapped up by a Thunberg T shirt wearing student.If so il tell her im retired,made my money in tobacco and lately oil,oh and chopping down Louisiana forests after taking a big stake in DRAX

[wherebee]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ha i got some lovely Reiss trousers and a Ted Baker shirt 2nd hand on Ebay though ,14% of new cost and as good as new.Noticed lots of quality stuff being sold at the moment so its time to splash out and stock up.Only problem being a contrarian il probably walk in the cocktail bar strutting like a peacock but it will be empty as none of the birds fixed their energy deals and are skint,or worse il get tapped up by a Thunberg T shirt wearing student.If so il tell her im retired,made my money in tobacco and lately oil,oh and chopping down Louisiana forests after taking a big stake in DRAX

i follow FB mnarketplace and a couple of other local sale groups to see what people are selling, in what condition, and how much off RRP.  It's a great indicator of sentiment and desperation.  One of the best bellweathers is people selling shit clothing obviously from the back of the wardrobe, for pennies, to try to raise cash.  Another is work/small business vans and trucks.  Over the pandemic there have been ebbs and flows - currently an uptick in what I see.

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Chinese buffer i use regular in Durham increased prices last week from £7.80 to £9.40,,il still use it but will not order a free water instead of a coffee so lowering my cost

Legend.

[Transistor Man]

15 hours ago, JMD said:

Is anyone buying Rolls Royce, now gone up to approx £1.33 and looking like it will only rise from here, especially with government - now about to embrace? - small modular nuclear. I bought some last year when it was much cheaper but those prices will surely not return now that nuclear appears to be firmly on more and more governments agenda.

I’m tempted. But, I’m convinced - personal opinion only - that a grid connected SMR is a very long way in the future. They will likely get funding for a demonstrator in North Wales. It’s all going to take a long time though, in my view. ..... Could still be a good buy. Not sure.

[jamtomorrow]

8 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I’m tempted. But, I’m convinced - personal opinion only - that a grid connected SMR is a very long way in the future. They will likely get funding for a demonstrator in North Wales. It’s all going to take a long time though, in my view. ..... Could still be a good buy. Not sure.

My bet: now Government have seen the whites of the eyes of the coming energy crisis, it's a matter of time before every fiscal weapon they can lay their hands on is firing at it.

Think "national emergency" level funding for SMR *and* whatever sweeteners it takes for a new fleet of GW class plants *and* direct funding for a new fast breeder programme *and* acceleration funding for fusion.

And of course, oil and gas is the only show in town until that fiscal wave shows up as on-grid generating capacity. 

[Barnsey]

7 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That means a pint will be even more expensive. 

Exactly when folks are going to have cut back on discretionary spend, and Sunak will be reluctant to repeat his help out to catch out scheme, especially going into Autumn.

Certainly feels like a stagflationary course we're on, with tapering/tightening into a rolling over economy, not good, although I'm sure the S&P will keep going up until investors feel their money is best placed elsewhere. 

This fuel crisis, albeit temporary, is a real reminder of just how reliant we are on energy. No doubt it'll accelerate resilience plans, but it's funny how road use was getting insane lately yet buses and trains still fairly quiet during the week, then this comes along. Life is just one giant see-saw isn't it? Like the madness of bigger and bigger cruise ships being fully booked years out, until covid hit.