Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Unaffordable for whom?   If talking affordability, you need also recognise the fall in the value of the currency it's priced in.   For foreign investment capital, UK property looks pretty affordable compared to the last ten years or so.   

 

And surely this is entirely the point of this thread.  Wealth preservation. 

So don't save in GBP and don't, if you can help it, get paid in GBP.    

 

1 hour ago, feed said:

Unaffordable for whom?   If talking affordability, you need also recognise the fall in the value of the currency it's priced in.   For foreign investment capital, UK property looks pretty affordable compared to the last ten years or so.   

 

And surely this is entirely the point of this thread.  Wealth preservation. 

So don't save in GBP and don't, if you can help it, get paid in GBP.    

 

For the average British person.

Many people have little in the way of wealth to preserve. Most people live month to month on a salary paid in GBP. For these people life will get harder and harder without wage inflation which Governments of all colours seem hell bent on preventing.

For those of us fortunate enough to have a house and some wealth to preserve we have to take all sorts of risks and spend a lot of time just to make sure we can buy the same amount of potatoes in ten years as we can today.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Starsend said:

For the average British person.

Many people have little in the way of wealth to preserve. Most people live month to month on a salary paid in GBP. For these people life will get harder and harder without wage inflation which Governments of all colours seem hell bent on preventing.

For those of us fortunate enough to have a house and some wealth to preserve we have to take all sorts of risks and spend a lot of time just to make sure we can buy the same amount of potatoes in ten years as we can today.

 

 

 

Mmmmm potatoes

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Paulie said:

What ladder strategy do people use?

Was thinking of buy limits at successive lows, to average at more advantageous prices. 

Danger with this is if the first hit was the low then you only end up with a fraction of your wants.....

Place subsequent higher buy limits and although price trend is confirmed you miss out on having bought at a better deal. 

Any other strategies? 

It depends on sector and starting price from the buy.If a company is already down 60% i tend to buy in roughly 6% ladders and tend to have it so i buy 4 or 5.I dont usually get them all.In the PM miners i used 8%.That helped me tag the bottom in most i bought including Harmony at the exact bottom.

I have no concerns of not getting everything invested as there are more than enough sectors and companies out there.I find ladders reduce the emotion and stop you trying to pick a bottom.It also changes your mindset.Im glad when stocks i own go down unless all ladders are bought.My road maps are my concern and where they point.I can wait for the share prices to respond.

I never set ladders as shares are going up.Im a contrarian and buy when sentiment is low,or terrible.

[Sugarlips]

Korea GDP: 0.00

https://mobile.twitter.com/sunchartist/status/1168682999048630272

India in some sort of recession:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-03/india-may-have-entered-quasi-recession-as-gdp-growth-plummets?srnd=premium-asia

this is a proper global slowdown

[Funn3r]

17 hours ago, CVG said:

Yeah, Marcus look best at the moment at 1.5%

For anyone who already has an account with Marcus and is coming towards the end of their 1.5% for 1st year - login and click on Renew and it will keep the same rate going for another 12 months. Otherwise it drops to something very poor, I guess they hope people won't notice. 

[DoINeedOne]

Silver Just went $19.01 (£15.77)

[DownwardSpiral]

13 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Silver Just went $19.01 (£15.77)

Silver up 15% from August 1st, 2019.

[kibuc]

4 minutes ago, DownwardSpiral said:

Silver up 15% from August 1st, 2019.

In the same time span:

Impact Silver - flat

Great Panther - down 4%

My two larges silver holdings. Luckily Alexco and Endeavour more than make up for it. Endeavour acts exactly as I'd expect from a speculative play on silver.

It's fascinating that we got here with DXY at 99.

[DownwardSpiral]

And I think XAG/GBP has now passed the 3 year high.

[Agent ZigZag]

Alexco I never had as one of my holdings. With silver in my opinion undervalued I took a punt beginning of the week to ride the wave hoping for a quick profit if and when silver gets towards $26. Bit of a gamble for me as I am not a trader.

[Noallegiance]

20 minutes ago, kibuc said:

 

It's fascinating that we got here with DXY at 99.

Isn't it just.

I saw the move this avo and went straight to currencies to check it.

Dollar flat, £ recovering, PMs up up up.

[BearyBear]

15 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Alexco I never had as one of my holdings. With silver in my opinion undervalued I took a punt beginning of the week to ride the wave hoping for a quick profit if and when silver gets towards $26. Bit of a gamble for me as I am not a trader.

There is a very high probability of getting there in less than 6 months. Obviously not a trading advice just an opinion.

[Barnsey]

8 hours ago, Paulie said:

What ladder strategy do people use?

Was thinking of buy limits at successive lows, to average at more advantageous prices. 

Danger with this is if the first hit was the low then you only end up with a fraction of your wants.....

Place subsequent higher buy limits and although price trend is confirmed you miss out on having bought at a better deal. 

Any other strategies? 

I'm very simplistic, I do regular investing through ii, 99p per deal per month. I just buy whichever 8 of my 16 holdings are most beaten up (I have 10 others set up in my price alerts if they fall to my initial buy targets), reviewing them the day before ii action them every month. Can't do market timing so don't have much control but find I sleep well at night knowing I'm basically picking up shares on sale, obviously reviewing every so often that I'm not buying too much of a select few.

[Barnsey]

US Manufacturing shocked all to the core today (partly why we're seeing PMs rocket in expectation of greater easing from Fed this month), well below estimates.

[Bobthebuilder]

42 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I'm very simplistic, I do regular investing through ii, 99p per deal per month. I just buy whichever 8 of my 16 holdings are most beaten up (I have 10 others set up in my price alerts if they fall to my initial buy targets), reviewing them the day before ii action them every month. Can't do market timing so don't have much control but find I sleep well at night knowing I'm basically picking up shares on sale, obviously reviewing every so often that I'm not buying too much of a select few.

I do a similar, Drip feed monthly, never going above 5% in any one stock. I have been doing this for years not just since i started posting on this thread. Ive learnt a few things like dont keep buying a stock as it gains, best to drip into the falls etc. I dont know what the monthly limit is per trade, i will have to look it up.

PM miners i bought and sold in chunks, silver at $28 would be nice.

[Agent ZigZag]

On 01/09/2019 at 09:03, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been going through the US steel stocks and wow they have been really smashed down.AKS Steel ,US Steel etc.They usually run hard (200%+) just before a crash as CBs go loose.Im really tempted to take a small contrarian punt on a couple,even though the timescale may be tight.

Out of the need to learn and understand why will steel stocks go up DB

[Dogtania]

Just seen the price of silver showing over 3% up on the day, wow.  Don't know if I have witnessed a break up like that in 24 hours before.

Thanks @DurhamBorn for a few of the silvers you listed a while back.  I bought into alexco, coeur, great panther and endevour.   Think my timing was pretty unlucky on a couple buying around Feb when they had previously spiked.  Alexco seemed a bit of a dog, until it wasn't.  

I'm still holding on at the moment but should probably be looking into realising a bit of profit now.  My actual silver holding in the physical I'm not really worried about any pull back ... Keeping for the longer term.  I'm not losing anything by holding in way of fees etc either.  The actual miners though I'm not sure whether to hold some for the longer term or diversify say into an etf which I need to get to grips with too.

As ever thanks to all the posters for the intelligent discussion!!  I would like to try to understand more rather than just throwing the dart (which I tell myself is just as effective long term 🤔😛). Got an old tome of a book gifted a few years ago by FT about investing should dig into.  Likewise a much more manageable book I did read and enjoy a while back was "the long and the short of it" which I'll probably start with.

[Hardhat]

 

6 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

or diversify say into an etf which I need to get to grips with too

If you mean a miners ETF, GDX / GDXJ are good for broad exposure. However if you already hold a handful of miners you may be doubling up on some by buying the ETF, so check the holdings and weighting.

[Barnsey]

Re: HSBC and Standard Chartered

 

[reformed nice guy]

29 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Just seen the price of silver showing over 3% up on the day, wow.  Don't know if I have witnessed a break up like that in 24 hours before.

Thanks @DurhamBorn for a few of the silvers you listed a while back.  I bought into alexco, coeur, great panther and endevour.   Think my timing was pretty unlucky on a couple buying around Feb when they had previously spiked.  Alexco seemed a bit of a dog, until it wasn't.  

 

I want to thank DurhamBorn as well. Endeavour silver was up 15.38% today alone!

[BearyBear]

56 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Just seen the price of silver showing over 3% up on the day, wow.  Don't know if I have witnessed a break up like that in 24 hours before.

Silver went mad today, it shows over 4% up! I was expecting a breakout today but not of that size... and it's still moving..! With that momentum maybe we'll get to $26 earlier than I anticipated.

GBPUSD has a nice bullish daily pinbar, I don't trade FX anymore but that looks like a good buying opportunity and a potential reversal from here.

[Paulie]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It depends on sector and starting price from the buy.If a company is already down 60% i tend to buy in roughly 6% ladders and tend to have it so i buy 4 or 5.I dont usually get them all.In the PM miners i used 8%.That helped me tag the bottom in most i bought including Harmony at the exact bottom.

I have no concerns of not getting everything invested as there are more than enough sectors and companies out there.I find ladders reduce the emotion and stop you trying to pick a bottom.It also changes your mindset.Im glad when stocks i own go down unless all ladders are bought.My road maps are my concern and where they point.I can wait for the share prices to respond.

I never set ladders as shares are going up.Im a contrarian and buy when sentiment is low,or terrible.

Seems like a very rational method. Best to keep emotion and sentiment in check by adhering to a pre-arranged plan.

Mind you, it's hard not to chase AXU after today :-(

[Barnsey]

On 02/09/2019 at 23:17, sancho panza said:

Interesting to hear this Barnsey,any particualr areas of the Mids or are you talking genereally?

Mainly West Mids Sancho, areas surrounding Birmingham. More affluent bits like Sutton Coldfield down even more, 7-9% for Semis and detached.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Out of the need to learn and understand why will steel stocks go up DB

Because usually just before a crash is when inflation starts to run up,and CBs tighten policy ,however this time the Fed has been far too tight already,thats why the US is slowing down and people are so shocked.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I want to thank DurhamBorn as well. Endeavour silver was up 15.38% today alone!

Not bad eh.My rubber band stocks have delivered amazing results.They have massive energy when the complex turns.However you need to really focus on when that turn will be or they keep handing out pain.The miners have now made me a really big return and very very happy.Iv still got most of my silver miners,though most gold miners have gone now.

It was quite strange today sitting in the company brief seeing what they expect for the next year,knowing they were in for a huge shock.Its almost like living in a secret world you cant talk about.

The miners were actually easy,it gets harder going forward,everything points to a reflation cycle alongside a distribution cycle.That will hammer most portfolios.

[Majorpain]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It was quite strange today sitting in the company brief seeing what they expect for the next year,knowing they were in for a huge shock.Its almost like living in a secret world you cant talk about.

They probably do know from future sales forecasts, but workers at the bottom don't tend to work particularly hard if they know they are going to get made redundant regardless in the near future!