Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

Does anyone know of a good watchlist app and website, that has live updates?

 

Great question.

Perhaps someone knows of an App/Website where you can set buy prices (ladders), and will then send text alerts when hit, would be good. 

One that does this for all stock markets, not just the ftse, and for etf's and funds would be great. Is anyone on here using a site that does this?

I, probably like many others, hold stocks on several platforms, one for isa, one for sipp, etc. This is clumsy for monitoring, so a single central app/website that does things well would be extremely useful.

 

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"GOLD will be Explosive, unlike anything we’ve EVER seen says Canada’s Billionaire Frank Giustra"

 

 

Well worth a watch for us folks on this thread, love some of the comments below the video, i reckon our very own @Errol has been posting there...

"if gold will be explosive, silver will be atomic."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnTHFGS58iE

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting, excellent content and interviewer, contrary to some others she actually let him talking and shown a big respect!  

[Castlevania]

9 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

It worse than that as the developers put an extra 20% markup on the price. £600,000, 2 bed Help to Buy flats here in London are worth no more than £500,000

There was a development near me. Tower block on a busy road in inner London that Baratt built. To be fair from the outside it looked reasonable - they’d given it a nice brick facade and the pictures of the flats made them look nice enough. Anyhow pre help to buy they had a big banner outside advertising two beds from £250k. Within a month or two of help to buy being announced it was suddenly two beds from £320k. By the following year (early 2014) when the market had gone nuts (people were desperately trying to buy before the MMR review came out) it was two beds from £400k. 

Now they could have just sold all of the cheap smaller flats with views of a busy road on the lower floors, but somehow I doubt that.

[Hardhat]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

it was two beds from £400k. 

 Now it's one beds for 400k in Hackney. And they are tiny. 

I went to look at a few help to buy places in the area a few years back. Most expensive was a one bed in a new build "luxury" block for 500k. It was nice enough, but Jesus Christ.

The only way they can sell these places is shared ownership combined with HTB. You only initially buy 25-50% of the flat and rent the rest, and then you can buy the rest in stages. And if I remember correctly you can get a HTB deposit loan as well to buy your 50%... I did the sums and walked away. 

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

This is bad, right?

 

8 hours ago, dgul said:

It suggests that there is a shortage of dollars.  Left alone to get worse this could end up with a massive deflationary episode.  But, the inference is that the Fed will print to add the liquidity (ie print dollars).

I'd note that the dollar shortage is actually linked to the melt-up in oil yesterday, so that it might be a short-term thing.  But, the fact that it has happened suggests that the entire market is on a knife edge, and that the slightest thing could set it off.

The theories of DB and others would suggest that they will print (imminently), but that it is actually too late and the damage was done 18 months ago.

So that would mean we'd have a melt-up in everything (Fed printing) but then we'd have the massive deflationary episode anyway some time down the line.

Fab summary.

The only thing I would add to it is that the overnight rate should really be within the bands of the fed rate (2-2.5%?), for it to be blowing out to 10% even briefly indicates that something is going wrong with the market plumbing.  If the market, for whatever reason, starts to chin off the fed funds rate it can (and should IMO) put the fear of god into the fed that they are losing control like 2008.  If changing interest rates has no effect on the market its QE or bust.

[Loki]

10 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

"if gold will be explosive, silver will be atomic."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnTHFGS58iE

 

 

 

 

Great vid, thanks

[Democorruptcy]

"The New Agenda" FT website is free

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

12 hours ago, BearyBear said:

Thanks for posting, excellent content and interviewer, contrary to some others she actually let him talking and shown a big respect!  

 

I think its one of the best Kitco interviews in a long time,  Frank Giustra is very credible, well spoken and really interesting to listen to ...

 

AND ...Yeah Daniella is a great interviewer, wish she lost a bit of weight I like seeing her legs clad in black nylons ...OH sorry to be OFF TOPIC again!...that's just me being a bit of an old perv!

 

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

"The New Agenda" FT website is free

Yes heard this from the FT tart on LBC lastnight...

AND whats this... the Canadian dipsh*t IS actually going to leave?! HOORAY!

 

EVERY single one of us on this thread could do a BETTER job than that Canadian dipsh*t!

 

BUT...there is a certain criteria to get this job PAYING: £480K PA

 

WANTED: ONLY candidates with a PONCEY POSH tone who can TALK SH*T need to apply!

 

 

[JMD]

Hopefully i'm not being pedantic (anal!) here. Anyway, happy for my thinking to be corrected if these questions are not in reality that relevant in terms of investment strategy.

  

When buying a stock traded on several different exchanges, which (for UK residents) is the 'best' exchange to choose?

Firstly, I am assuming that if a stock is traded on the FTSE, then probably always best to use the FTSE, so that currency risk is eliminated? e.g. if New Gold could be bought on FTSE, would it be generally better to buy it on FTSE rather than say its Canadian stock exchange?

But, as New Gold for example, is in fact traded on Canadian/US/Germany exchanges, which exchange would you go for? I'm assuming that as New Gold is a Canadian company, then the Canada exchange would be the better option?

 

A related question is how important is it to have an informed view on future relative strength/weakness of currencies (along with having an anticipated sell time frame). For example over next 20 years the pound will probably strengthen more so against the Euro, so all things being equal, it would probably be best to buy a particular stock using a US exchange rather than a European exchange. I believe most investors say just keep it simple as these things 'average out' - but given the vital next cycle/macro themes explored on this thread - would it be wise to factor in future relative currency strengths... so for example if/when given the choice, perhaps always buy US stock over Euro stock?    

 

  

[kibuc]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

Hopefully i'm not being pedantic (anal!) here. Anyway, happy for my thinking to be corrected if these questions are not in reality that relevant in terms of investment strategy.

  

When buying a stock traded on several different exchanges, which (for UK residents) is the 'best' exchange to choose?

Firstly, I am assuming that if a stock is traded on the FTSE, then probably always best to use the FTSE, so that currency risk is eliminated? e.g. if New Gold could be bought on FTSE, would it be generally better to buy it on FTSE rather than say its Canadian stock exchange?

But, as New Gold for example, is in fact traded on Canadian/US/Germany exchanges, which exchange would you go for? I'm assuming that as New Gold is a Canadian company, then the Canada exchange would be the better option?

 

A related question is how important is it to have an informed view on future relative strength/weakness of currencies (along with having an anticipated sell time frame). For example over next 20 years the pound will probably strengthen more so against the Euro, so all things being equal, it would probably be best to buy a particular stock using a US exchange rather than a European exchange. I believe most investors say just keep it simple as these things 'average out' - but given the vital next cycle/macro themes explored on this thread - would it be wise to factor in future relative currency strengths... so for example if/when given the choice, perhaps always buy US stock over Euro stock?    

 

  

Ah, the curse of having too many options available.

I shop with HL and most the miners I'm interested in are only available throught their Canadian listings, even though most of them are listed in US as well. If I had a choice I'd probably go with Toronto anyway, but I kind of like the fact that I have one less decision to make and can focus on picking the right stocks instead.

What irks me is that many of smaller-cap miners are not available at all with HL  

Which broker do you use that gives you the option to pick the exchange?

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

WANTED: ONLY candidates with a PONCEY POSH tone who can TALK SH*T need to apply!

 

 

Goldman Sachs experience essential.

[dgul]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Hopefully i'm not being pedantic (anal!) here. Anyway, happy for my thinking to be corrected if these questions are not in reality that relevant in terms of investment strategy.

  

When buying a stock traded on several different exchanges, which (for UK residents) is the 'best' exchange to choose?

Firstly, I am assuming that if a stock is traded on the FTSE, then probably always best to use the FTSE, so that currency risk is eliminated? e.g. if New Gold could be bought on FTSE, would it be generally better to buy it on FTSE rather than say its Canadian stock exchange?

But, as New Gold for example, is in fact traded on Canadian/US/Germany exchanges, which exchange would you go for? I'm assuming that as New Gold is a Canadian company, then the Canada exchange would be the better option?

  

Pretty much always go for the most liquid exchange.  This'll be indicated both by daily volumes (higher is best) and in the spread (lower is best).

Currency risk is minimal -- if there's a currency difference someone will take the arbitrage and run with it until it doesn't exist any more.

[Loki]

I'm surprised that this thread has been so quiet today. Has all that need be said, been said?  

Just when things are getting good, no one wants to talk...

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stunning-consensus-emerges-fed-may-announce-launch-qe-just-few-hours

[King Penda]

It's not a surprise if they do so it's like a race to the bottom between the yanks Europe and china or is my analysis fucked up has it devalues currency hence helps exports

[dgul]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

I'm surprised that this thread has been so quiet today. Has all that need be said, been said?  

Just when things are getting good, no one wants to talk...

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stunning-consensus-emerges-fed-may-announce-launch-qe-just-few-hours

It is completely mad.  There's tremendous forces pulling each way, and no-one knows how it will pan out.  Whatever happens in an hour, something will happen...

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, dgul said:

It is completely mad.  There's tremendous forces pulling each way, and no-one knows how it will pan out.  Whatever happens in an hour, something will happen...

I'm gonna break out the sippin' whisky and get comfy

[dgul]

17 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm gonna break out the sippin' whisky and get comfy

I think we'll get one reaction at 7 with the formal announcement, and then another one (not necessarily in the same direction) at 7:30 with the press-conference.

[Loki]

Just now, dgul said:

I think we'll get one reaction at 7 with the formal announcement, and then another one (not necessarily in the same direction) at 7:30 with the press-conference.

I enjoy the chat more than the technical stuff in this thread - I can understand it! Like the way durhamborn explains it as "money will go into infrastructure as consumer is spent out" rather than "fund XYZ will cause sector ABC to boom, something something sub-prime, debt, CDOs, BBQs, BLTs"

[dgul]

1 minute ago, sam1994 said:

25bps cut as expected 

Market has reacted negatively.

I can't believe that 50bps was priced in.  Perhaps there's something in the detail.

I always find the immediate reaction to these announcements a bit weird.

 

[dgul]

9 minutes ago, sam1994 said:

We are barely off all time highs

fedex earnings probably driving down things a bit 

Well, yes.  But recent history suggests that anything other than 'markets higher!' is a failure for them...

[Democorruptcy]

14 minutes ago, dgul said:

Market has reacted negatively.

I can't believe that 50bps was priced in.  Perhaps there's something in the detail.

I always find the immediate reaction to these announcements a bit weird.

 

Markets want QE/Extra liquidity etc, no mention of it in the statement maybe later on?

[dgul]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

Markets want QE/Extra liquidity etc, no mention of it in the statement maybe later on?

I'm sure the question will be asked in the conference.

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, Majorpain said:

 

Fab summary.

The only thing I would add to it is that the overnight rate should really be within the bands of the fed rate (2-2.5%?), for it to be blowing out to 10% even briefly indicates that something is going wrong with the market plumbing.  If the market, for whatever reason, starts to chin off the fed funds rate it can (and should IMO) put the fear of god into the fed that they are losing control like 2008.  If changing interest rates has no effect on the market its QE or bust.

Where are you getting that 10% from? Do you mean up 10bps?

[kibuc]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Where are you getting that 10% from? Do you mean up 10bps?

Nope, it really went up to 9.75% or so yesterday, before Fed intervened.

[dgul]

2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Nope, it really went up to 9.75% or so yesterday, before Fed intervened.

That's the repo rate.  it isn't an interest rate.