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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Looks like a good website for those investing in overseas stocks.  I'm linking to the page about foreign stocks held in ISAs and SIPPs as this is particularity important.  I'm currently checking (to my surprise) that there is zero US witholding tax on US dividends from US stocks held in a SIPP but there is (although reduced with a W-8BEN form) in an ISA, which is not recoverable.  Apparently such (again possibly reduced) withholding tax is recoverable for such stocks held in a normal trading account, providing you have a large enough UK income tax liability to set it against.  Talking individual stocks here, not ETFs, etc.

https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/holding-foreign-stocks-isa-sipp

Thanks for sharing, it's exactly the kind of information I've been looking for.  It has been not that important so far because pm shares dividends were tiny but hopefully that will change soon.

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Well, well.  I mentioned my concern earlier about the amount of intangible assets being carried by many UK companies these days as a percentage of total assets.  Maybe valid for some companies with IP, etc but quite often just goodwill which is of questionable value, especially when being valued on a going concern basis.  Well it seems you can add this to debt as part of the Thomas Cook case study/exemplar.  Intangibles apparently about 50% of total assets and most of this is goodwill.  I pulled this from the Morningstar website for Thomas Cook on the Frankfurt exchange as the LSE entry (I assume they were listed here) has gone.  Odd.

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

I'm currently checking (to my surprise) that there is zero US witholding tax on US dividends from US stocks held in a SIPP

Seems to be SIPP provider dependent.

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Seems to be SIPP provider dependent.

Is it zero tax with HL Harley in a SIPP,always thought it was?.Im sure they reclaim it.Il check though to be sure.Its very interesting though and a big bonus,simply hold the US stocks in the SIPP and the others in and ISA.The 15% in the ISA is a big difference to the 30% as well.

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont think we will go down that road in the UK yet as vaping is pushed by the government.We might follow the US though later and regulate it more.Its interesting because big tobacco needs vaping,yet would be happy to see it regulated hard.It doesnt suit them at all that you can buy vape for £1 in poundland etc.They could do with that doing away with and only regulated ones on the market.

I have a few friends and family members who work in respiratory medicine - studies are starting to come out linking vaping to lung conditions. A consensus is building in respiratory medicine that vaping isn't good for you, and its starting to be linked to specific conditions. I can try and find the specific studies if people are interested. I suppose the issue is, is it less dangerous than smoking?

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7 minutes ago, Durabo said:

I have a few friends and family members who work in respiratory medicine - studies are starting to come out linking vaping to lung conditions. A consensus is building in respiratory medicine that vaping isn't good for you, and its starting to be linked to specific conditions. I can try and find the specific studies if people are interested. I suppose the issue is, is it less dangerous than smoking?

Yes i think that will be the thing,Is it less damaging.Whats certain though is like you say if these studies show a link,then they will regulate so only certain ones can be on the market.It suits big tobacco to have that done.It slows down the move away from fags and keeps margins higher in the alternatives.Iv got a friend who works for himself ex Rothmans fitter,he goes around the world putting in fag machines for BAT mostly.He reckons they have huge business in South America and Asia.Pakistan was where he was last.He said the chance of smoking going away in those places within 20 years was zero,and the room to increase prices really large as they are really cheap at the moment.India is another huge market and vaping already banned there.

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1 hour ago, Durabo said:

I have a few friends and family members who work in respiratory medicine - studies are starting to come out linking vaping to lung conditions. A consensus is building in respiratory medicine that vaping isn't good for you, and its starting to be linked to specific conditions. I can try and find the specific studies if people are interested. I suppose the issue is, is it less dangerous than smoking?

Its oil particles, in the knock off back of container from CHhina cheap flavoured vape liquids.

https://casereports.bmj.com/content/2018/bcr-2018-224350.full

 

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4 hours ago, Harley said:

Looks like a good website for those investing in overseas stocks.  I'm linking to the page about foreign stocks held in ISAs and SIPPs as this is particularity important.  I'm currently checking (to my surprise) that there is zero US witholding tax on US dividends from US stocks held in a SIPP but there is (although reduced with a W-8BEN form) in an ISA, which is not recoverable.  Apparently such (again possibly reduced) withholding tax is recoverable for such stocks held in a normal trading account, providing you have a large enough UK income tax liability to set it against.  Talking individual stocks here, not ETFs, etc.

https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/holding-foreign-stocks-isa-sipp

Careful please, some of the pages haven't been updated for a while.

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Is this the start?

 

Steen Jakobsen Retweeted
 

Getting ugly in tech fantasy-land. WeSpend's(WeWork) private valuation collapse (taking other unicorns with it), Tesla under duress, Netflix sinking like as stone since early July (-125 pts, -33%), cloud software faves rolling over, AMZN 270 pts off since July top. Trouble ahead?

 
 
 
 
 
 
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39 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Its oil particles, in the knock off back of container from CHhina cheap flavoured vape liquids.

https://casereports.bmj.com/content/2018/bcr-2018-224350.full

 

Quote

Despite our advice to quit vaping, she continued to use EC with different flavours and there is not much improvement in her clinical and spirometric parameters.

¬¬

6 minutes ago, janch said:

Is this the start?

 

 
 
 

Or just false dawn #9999...:(

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19 minutes ago, janch said:

Is this the start?

 

Steen Jakobsen Retweeted
 

Getting ugly in tech fantasy-land. WeSpend's(WeWork) private valuation collapse (taking other unicorns with it), Tesla under duress, Netflix sinking like as stone since early July (-125 pts, -33%), cloud software faves rolling over, AMZN 270 pts off since July top. Trouble ahead?

 
 
 
 
 
 

WeWoprk is a low margin scam.

Netflix is just a bit over valued. Its cash stream is v valuable.

 

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7 hours ago, Harley said:

Looks like a good website for those investing in overseas stocks.  I'm linking to the page about foreign stocks held in ISAs and SIPPs as this is particularity important.  I'm currently checking (to my surprise) that there is zero US witholding tax on US dividends from US stocks held in a SIPP but there is (although reduced with a W-8BEN form) in an ISA, which is not recoverable.  Apparently such (again possibly reduced) withholding tax is recoverable for such stocks held in a normal trading account, providing you have a large enough UK income tax liability to set it against.  Talking individual stocks here, not ETFs, etc.

https://the-international-investor.com/investment-faq/holding-foreign-stocks-isa-sipp

This makes sense... the USA does not recognise ISAs as a tax free account because they have nothing similar to that. When I moved there I closed my ISAs after the first year as I had to declare the interest as income on my taxes.

But they do recognise SIPPs/DC pensions as tax deferred retirement accounts like an IRA or 401k.

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Hargreaves Lansdown sent me this today:
 

Quote

 

Suddenly we’re into a spiral of forced sellers – people whose rental income no longer covers the cost of the property or who are uneasy with the turbulent political environment.

Is BTL dead?

 

Obviously touting for more shares business but nice anyway. 

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10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hargreaves Lansdown sent me this today:
 

Obviously touting for more shares business but nice anyway. 

I clicked on this hoping for a picture of a pen. :)

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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hargreaves Lansdown sent me this today:
 

Obviously touting for more shares business but nice anyway. 

Its both.

Any io btl loon, badic rate tax, more tgan 2 io btl in last 15 years will be losing cash.

Any glance at where wind blowing and theyll be shitting bricks, literally.

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UN Trade body - "Recession a serious risk for 2020"

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/25/global-recession-a-serious-danger-in-2020-says-un

Article on the dollar/liquidity shortage that DB talks about, although they dont quite talk about it like that

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-09-25/why-i-m-worried-about-the-repo-market?__twitter_impression=true

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2 hours ago, Errol said:

Comex options expiry day today. Ignore the gold moves - they are entirely normal in the current absurd system.

Interesting Errol thanks wouldn’t have known to think of that.

just thought I was once again looking upwards as I slid a bit down the Slope of Hope... 

hopefully I will hold on and glide up the Wall of Worry ahead.

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On 25/09/2019 at 01:21, Castlevania said:

I remember chatting to a Kiwi fellow a few years back. Former smoker who’d turned to vaping before giving up for a bit and returning to smoking. 

Vaping he reckons almost killed him. The vape turned the tar in his lungs into sludge which peeled off and collected at the bottom of his lungs.

I’m not sure if a) what he told me makes any sense or b) it could actually happen, but he was convinced it was the vaping.

So the Vape shops on your high street that will mix you a liquid concoction will need to be regulated? So it’s the death of that, and if you do vape you’ll have to buy a Juul or a Blu or any one of the big tobacco patented devices?

To be fair, this could have occurred even without the vaping, as the body's first instinct is always to clear any gunk from the lungs. Usually just gets coughed up though, never heard of it collecting in the bottom of the lungs.

Wouldn't this be drained off into the lymphatic system (apologies to any proper doctors on here, last studied physiology about 25 years ago!)? 

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19 hours ago, Durabo said:

I have a few friends and family members who work in respiratory medicine - studies are starting to come out linking vaping to lung conditions. A consensus is building in respiratory medicine that vaping isn't good for you, and its starting to be linked to specific conditions. I can try and find the specific studies if people are interested. I suppose the issue is, is it less dangerous than smoking?

I would be interested to see the science/research...another issue is, is it any worse for passive smokers, especially children of smoking parents.

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I think the effects of vaping would have no real issue in terms of passive smoking as it's only water vapour that's created,  Nothing is combusting. I work within the NHS and the view currently is that it's much safer than smoking. Long term effects unknown. But I guess this would be true even of meds cleared via clinical trials.

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20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes i think that will be the thing,Is it less damaging.Whats certain though is like you say if these studies show a link,then they will regulate so only certain ones can be on the market.It suits big tobacco to have that done.It slows down the move away from fags and keeps margins higher in the alternatives.Iv got a friend who works for himself ex Rothmans fitter,he goes around the world putting in fag machines for BAT mostly.He reckons they have huge business in South America and Asia.Pakistan was where he was last.He said the chance of smoking going away in those places within 20 years was zero,and the room to increase prices really large as they are really cheap at the moment.India is another huge market and vaping already banned there.

How do I go long those countries future tax on fags?

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