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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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5 minutes ago, dgul said:

Just so long as you only extract the heat from inside a well insulated box, but put the heat outside the box.  That would work.

Masterful, would you like to join my team at the Bank of England

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

I used to work for a company where i got moved to my own office due to my habits of just working in a shirt with the window open in winter.

I'm sure that was the only reason...

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-reveals-5bn-broadband-bonanza/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-will-spend-13bn-build-40-new-hospitals/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49872190

Fourteen major roads in England will be upgraded at a cost of £25bn under plans to improve infrastructure, the chancellor is to announce.

A national bus strategy and £5bn for ultrafast broadband internet across the UK will also be outlined by Sajid Javid at the Conservative Party conference.

https://www.go-ahead.com/media/blog/go-ahead-calls-national-bus-strategy-benefit-economy-and-society

 

 

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43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-reveals-5bn-broadband-bonanza/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-will-spend-13bn-build-40-new-hospitals/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49872190

Fourteen major roads in England will be upgraded at a cost of £25bn under plans to improve infrastructure, the chancellor is to announce.

A national bus strategy and £5bn for ultrafast broadband internet across the UK will also be outlined by Sajid Javid at the Conservative Party conference.

https://www.go-ahead.com/media/blog/go-ahead-calls-national-bus-strategy-benefit-economy-and-society

 

 

nice hit.

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I definitely thought "bullseye, @DurhamBorn!" when I heard that this morning. The only slight quibble is that apparently at the conservative conference, more than £50 billion of spending promises have been made, including on the police, nhs and schools. Those three don't count as infrastructure spending to my mind, unless there are some details I've missed. Still, there could be a lot of b.b.c. spin in the reporting, and I don't want to detract for one minute from DB's hugely prescient logic over the last years. Things seem to be playing out very much as he has described, both here and across the Atlantic. 

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-reveals-5bn-broadband-bonanza/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-will-spend-13bn-build-40-new-hospitals/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49872190

Fourteen major roads in England will be upgraded at a cost of £25bn under plans to improve infrastructure, the chancellor is to announce.

A national bus strategy and £5bn for ultrafast broadband internet across the UK will also be outlined by Sajid Javid at the Conservative Party conference.

https://www.go-ahead.com/media/blog/go-ahead-calls-national-bus-strategy-benefit-economy-and-society

 

 

Well, I would like to know where the money is coming from then...unless of course we scrap our Foreign Aid budget so that India can no longer send rockets to the moon!?

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1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Well, I would like to know where the money is coming from then...unless of course we scrap our Foreign Aid budget so that India can no longer send rockets to the moon!?

Take the money that being poured into the likes ogf booze busters and kebab houses. And put it into infrastructure.

Benefit reforms, thats where the money is.

Followed by public sector reform.

Deny benefits to all no Brits and charge the ones who want to stay the full cost of their public services. Youll get billions.

 

 

 

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UnconventionalWisdom
3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-reveals-5bn-broadband-bonanza/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-will-spend-13bn-build-40-new-hospitals/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49872190

Fourteen major roads in England will be upgraded at a cost of £25bn under plans to improve infrastructure, the chancellor is to announce.

A national bus strategy and £5bn for ultrafast broadband internet across the UK will also be outlined by Sajid Javid at the Conservative Party conference.

https://www.go-ahead.com/media/blog/go-ahead-calls-national-bus-strategy-benefit-economy-and-society

 

 

Love reading these stories and thinking about the 3 year heads-up from this thread. Like seeing into the future.

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UnconventionalWisdom
2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Well, I would like to know where the money is coming from then...unless of course we scrap our Foreign Aid budget so that India can no longer send rockets to the moon!?

Magic money tree. Money is created much faster than that we can create from actual printing. Just 1's and 0's

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UnconventionalWisdom
12 hours ago, dgul said:

 

[I happen to think that it is important for the human animal to feel the seasons.  I think that our increasing isolation from the seasons has a negative impact on human mental and physical health.]

I lived in South Korea for a year. They heated buildings and buses etc so much in the winter I would need to remove my coat and whacked the aircon on too cold in summer that I'd need a jumper. Sure it wasnt good for anyone 

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10 hours ago, Innkeeper said:

I have a ground source heat pump and know several others who have them nearby (West Country).  All are very happy with them and our one copes easily with a 500 year old cob built house.  We get a 1kw to 3kw output on hot water and 1to 4 on heating so no contest with oil costs. 

500 year old would be considered a newish build around here!  Why do you think some work and some don't?  Cob v stone?  Oversized rads, underfloor heating?  Those COP values average or what?  COP in winter?  Install costs recovery (air to air was the same install price as an oil boiler and tank but ground would be more expensive)?

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2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Well, I would like to know where the money is coming from t

From us via taxes but also by effectively devaluing the money you have (printing money above the real economic growth rate means existing money gets devalued).

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Centrica in the news
 

Quote

 

Centrica, the owner of British Gas, plans to use its customers’ hot water tanks to create a virtual power plant which could help National Grid prevent future blackouts.

...

Mixergy, the tech company behind the smart hot water tanks, said the technology will help consumers use less energy.

The tank uses artificial intelligence to learn how much hot water a household uses, and at which times of day, to make sure that it doesn’t waste energy when hot water is unlikely to be needed.

Pete Armstrong of Mixergy said the technology could pave the way for new energy tariffs, which would “reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by storing excess renewable energy on the grid”.

“At the same time, we reduce bills for householders by only heating the amount of hot water they require,” he added.

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/9/30/centrica-to-use-customers-hot-water-tanks-to-stop-blackouts

 

I'm not sure about reducing consumption and bills but if it means they can reduce prices it could bring more customers back? 

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30 minutes ago, Harley said:

500 year old would be considered a newish build around here!  Why do you think some work and some don't?  Cob v stone?  Oversized rads, underfloor heating?  Those COP values average or what?  COP in winter?  Install costs recovery (air to air was the same install price as an oil boiler and tank but ground would be more expensive)?

That was for ground source -- these are great but require a fair bit of land and are expensive to install*.

There is this fundamental problem with heat pumps, in that as the requirement for heating goes up, the air temperature outside goes down (duh!).  This isn't a problem with ground source as the ground give a fairly stable 'source of heat' to use all year round -- all that changes is the requirement for heat when colder days come.

However, for air source heat pumps it is a double whammy -- the requirement for additional heat comes at exactly the same time as there is less heat available in the outside air.  This results in the main problem with air source -- they just fail spectacularly on those few really cold nights to maintain temperature.  I believe this is the source of most of the issues people have with heat pumps.

There are two ways around this:

  • You can use 'resistive heating' on the cold nights.  This is expensive but does work.  However, I'd note that it wouldn't readily work on a 'country wide scale' as the power generation infrastructure couldn't cope with absolutely everyone switching to 'old fashioned electric heating'.
  • You can be relatively cold (but not that cold -- the house would feel cold, but it would be relatively warm compared with outside temperatures).

I'd actually suggest that the solution for heating in the UK is for the majority to use ASHP and merely suffer a colder house on those really cold nights.  Maintaining a warm house would be limited to houses with the very young or very old who do suffer from health risks when the temperature drops.  However, this might not be easy to sell to those that currently just bump up their burny gas consumption when it gets cold...

[* if you've got land they shouldn't be expensive to install -- if you just hire a digger and do the 'hard work' bit yourself the costs would be similar to air source.  However, most people just hire a contractor to do it all, and as GSHP = rich customer, the prices go up]

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37 minutes ago, Harley said:

500 year old would be considered a newish build around here!  Why do you think some work and some don't?  Cob v stone?  Oversized rads, underfloor heating?  Those COP values average or what?  COP in winter?  Install costs recovery (air to air was the same install price as an oil boiler and tank but ground would be more expensive)?

Ground source pumps are a tricky install with multiple facets to consider to get it right e.g. ground loop length and size, pump capacity, water storage (ideally separate heating and hot water).  System balancing is key or acceptable COP simply won't be achieved.  My figures quoted are total since the system was installed ( 18 months).   We used the old pipe work flushed through and put in new rads -  underfloor would be more efficient but not realistic in my situation.  We also run the pump via solar panels giving even greater savings.

The best thing is the entire costs of equipment and installation are repaid over seven years through the government Renewable Heat Incentive scheme ( I even managed to squeeze the solar panels into the total cost to be repaid 👍) The government has switched its green emphasis away from PV into ground and air source so well worth investigating.  Install costs are far higher than conventional heating so without government support most people wouldn't consider the move.

 

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3 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I definitely thought "bullseye, @DurhamBorn!" when I heard that this morning. The only slight quibble is that apparently at the conservative conference, more than £50 billion of spending promises have been made, including on the police, nhs and schools. Those three don't count as infrastructure spending to my mind, unless there are some details I've missed. Still, there could be a lot of b.b.c. spin in the reporting, and I don't want to detract for one minute from DB's hugely prescient logic over the last years. Things seem to be playing out very much as he has described, both here and across the Atlantic. 

It made me think that it won't go to frontline grunts but the upper management will have the money to buy even more holiday homes and price locals out.

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A national bus strategy and £5bn for ultrafast broadband internet across the UK will also be outlined by Sajid Javid at the Conservative Party conference.

https://www.go-ahead.com/media/blog/go-ahead-calls-national-bus-strategy-benefit-economy-and-society

That would be good for SGC as well?

There's a huge difference in GOG and SGC share prices in recent years. I suppose GOG is international and being UK based SGC has been beaten down. 

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14 hours ago, dgul said:

Part of the problem is acclimatisation.  People have their houses, cars and offices set at a warm temperature all year round -- they then can't cope with any deviation from that temperature as it is considered uncomfortable.  If you're the sort that moves with the seasons you'll then find that sort of house uncomfortably hot in winter.

[I happen to think that it is important for the human animal to feel the seasons.  I think that our increasing isolation from the seasons has a negative impact on human mental and physical health.]

What I really hate is trying to type with ice-cold hands.

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years ago people used to heat their shacks by having the animals on the ground floor and the heat would rise to the living accomodation above. Could something like a compost heap be used as a heat source for a heat pump as they produce heat as the matter decays ?

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6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-reveals-5bn-broadband-bonanza/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/28/boris-johnson-will-spend-13bn-build-40-new-hospitals/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49872190

Fourteen major roads in England will be upgraded at a cost of £25bn under plans to improve infrastructure, the chancellor is to announce.

A national bus strategy and £5bn for ultrafast broadband internet across the UK will also be outlined by Sajid Javid at the Conservative Party conference.

https://www.go-ahead.com/media/blog/go-ahead-calls-national-bus-strategy-benefit-economy-and-society

 

 

Any suggestions for investments on this news durhamborn?  It can't be long till they announce national grid upgrades...

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29 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

years ago people used to heat their shacks by having the animals on the ground floor and the heat would rise to the living accomodation above. Could something like a compost heap be used as a heat source for a heat pump as they produce heat as the matter decays ?

Well, there are two problems:

  • The sheer quantity of heat required.  You'd need lots of poo (etc).  All fossil fuels are deceptive from this point of view -- they are really quite energy dense.
  • The heat is an important element of the decomposition process -- as soon as you actively cool the 'compost heap' you slow down the decomposition and thus produce less heat.  Then it would freeze solid and all decomposition would cease.
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29 minutes ago, dgul said:

Well, there are two problems:

  • The sheer quantity of heat required.  You'd need lots of poo (etc).  All fossil fuels are deceptive from this point of view -- they are really quite energy dense.
  • The heat is an important element of the decomposition process -- as soon as you actively cool the 'compost heap' you slow down the decomposition and thus produce less heat.  Then it would freeze solid and all decomposition would cease.

Theres the whole hot beds thing.

Without plants to suck up the carbon dioxide created during composting, it probably not that green.

However ....

Given a large enough pile of rotting whatnot, a greenhouse to suck up the carbon dioxide and carefully instructed pipe grid and control system to just pull enough heat out ... then its a goer.

Not suitbale for the average 3 bed semi though.

 

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reformed nice guy

https://solarimmersion.co.uk/

I installed this after a recommendation on this site at the start of the month. When my solar panels are generating more than I am using, it is diverting the excess to an immersion heater. I use kerosene and a wood/coal burner so I wont know the savings until I need to top up my tank again, but it has been keeping my 275l tank at least luke warm. If you have a solar panel then this really is a must have

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