Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bricks & Mortar]

12 minutes ago, JMD said:

what do others think of it in terms of their own locality

It doesn't seem to cover Scotland, (we have our own land registry).  I did a quick google search for something similar, but came up blank.

EDIT TO ADD - I found it has data on asking prices in my area.  Not the same as selling prices, especially as there was a period where many went for between 10 and 50% over the asking price.
I do, however, broadly agree with their findings on asking price.

[JMD]

1 minute ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

It doesn't seem to cover Scotland, (we have our own land registry).  I did a quick google search for something similar, but came up blank.

 

thanks Bricksandmortar, I think i'll use the site for my own relocation if it is accurate. I'm planning to move somewhere north or south of Newcastle, to achieve good train transport links of under an hour into the city. Are there any recommendations for cheap property areas around Newcastle area? I'm also seriously thinking of investing in a property that will 'double-up' for use for lodgers/or holiday let potential. This is all part of my financial strategy for the next cycle so any recommendations for suitable locations would be greatly received.     

[spygirl]

20 minutes ago, JMD said:

Spygirl, thanks for the great link to the house-price data site.

I tested it for my area and it looks accurate for what i remember for house prices here between year 2000 and now. I know its based on land registry sales data so should be accurate but its not always the case. I wonder, what do others think of it in terms of their own locality in regards to what they know happened to house prices for them (or just their own property perhaps)? 

Theres two traits that are very common in the northern - inc. Stoke - towns I look at.

You look at the volume, and its still on its arse to the late 90s, still getting over the fall out from the late 80s HPC, whcih started about 4 years later (94) inthe North) compared to the South.

Price ramp up stupid 2000ish->2004ish, then stop.

Then theres a huge increase in sales from 2002ish  -> 2008ish.

Then - wham - brickwall - and sales go back so below what they were 92ish to 98ish. ie.. fuck all.

Then theres a recovery from 2012 ish which Id guess is 2nd wave of IO BTL idiots piling.

 

 

boro:

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=middlesbrough&startmonth=01&startyear=1995&endmonth=07&endyear=2019

scabby

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=scarborough&startmonth=01&startyear=1995&endmonth=07&endyear=2019

Ull

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=hull&startmonth=01&startyear=1995&endmonth=07&endyear=2019

[Agent ZigZag]

There really is a North/South divide. The North never really recovered from de-industrialisation with bugger all sustainable job/industry creation since. Successive governments have papered over the cracks regarding the North. In fact they have left it to rot. 

Since the 1980s job creation has been southern dominated, that would partly explain house price growth.

 

On another matter been quietly adding to my miners after their consolidation a few weeks back. Anybody else adding for a final flurry in this sector

[Loki]

I didn't make a bean from New Gold, still 50% down in fact so no, but I haven't capitulated and sold! 

[spygirl]

37 minutes ago, JMD said:

thanks Bricksandmortar, I think i'll use the site for my own relocation if it is accurate. I'm planning to move somewhere north or south of Newcastle, to achieve good train transport links of under an hour into the city. Are there any recommendations for cheap property areas around Newcastle area? I'm also seriously thinking of investing in a property that will 'double-up' for use for lodgers/or holiday let potential. This is all part of my financial strategy for the next cycle so any recommendations for suitable locations would be greatly received.     

Its accurate.

You can get a grasp of individual houses using

https://houseprices.io/

But home.co.uk is great for putting lots of data into one easy to grasp chart.

Id suggest any chat with an Ea when buying goes along the lines of

Oh, what have houses done over the last 10 years?

Then show them the chart.

Then, on specific areas print out sales showing any price fall.

One thing with EAs they really do believe their own BS.

 

 

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

 

17 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Anybody else adding for a final flurry in this sector

I'm still holding all of mine.  Down about 15% since DB told us he'd sold his last, but still up almost 10% on the sum I put in.
Have Endeavour, Fresnillo, Hochschild, First Majestic, Yamana, and GDXJ.  No funds for more at this time, unfortunately.

[JMD]

23 hours ago, Moominpapa said:

unfortunately it did not come with figures just relative volume...

thanks Moominpapa, the graph was useful, and I am always on the outlook for 'good ideas' for selecting the correct asset allocation strategy, particularly in order to help fully exploit the next cycle.

In fact I think its mostly the reason for my earlier reference to those reflation divi equities as being bond proxies (though I admit I should have said 'alternatives'), I realise bonds/equities function in different ways, its just that the forum consensus seems to be that selecting a broad spread of good reflation utility/infrastructure stocks - ones that can be argued as becoming the 'bed-rock' of the next cycle - is as secure as buying bonds (I think the idea is the bond coupon remains intact but its capitol value is eaten by inflation; i think you were talking specifically of linkers, but aren't these always time limited?, in which case renewing them would be a problem). I guess I look at the pending performance divergence between the majority of stocks that are massively over-valued and will get cheaper over time (with/without a market crash), and the reflation type stocks that will mostly outperform, as being kinda analogous to two different asset classes, not in the long term of course (as everything reverts to the mean over time), but for approx. the next 10 years.  

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Spygirl, thanks for the great link to the house-price data site.

I tested it for my area and it looks accurate for what i remember for house prices here between year 2000 and now. I know its based on land registry sales data so should be accurate but its not always the case. I wonder, what do others think of it in terms of their own locality in regards to what they know happened to house prices for them (or just their own property perhaps)? 

That site is 100% accurate to my area,my house went up 130% from 96 to 2004 and is the same price now as 2004 (down slightly),just as the graph shows for semis in my area.Over 25 years gone up 101%.I havent the inflation figures to hand,but that must be close to simply inflation.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

thanks Bricksandmortar, I think i'll use the site for my own relocation if it is accurate. I'm planning to move somewhere north or south of Newcastle, to achieve good train transport links of under an hour into the city. Are there any recommendations for cheap property areas around Newcastle area? I'm also seriously thinking of investing in a property that will 'double-up' for use for lodgers/or holiday let potential. This is all part of my financial strategy for the next cycle so any recommendations for suitable locations would be greatly received.     

Darlington or Durham.Darlington cheap and east coast mainline in middle of town.30 minutes to Newcastle 2hr10 to Kings Cross.Durham about 15 minutes to Newcastle,but station more out of way from where youd probably buy.Darlington also 10 minutes away from Teeside airport and 35 minutes from Newcastle airport.

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49960817

You always need to know the way the winds blowing.

Green energy needs around 15% backup that can be fired quickly until we have enough battery storage,probably 40 years away.

Next cycle will be all about the above,governments doing whatever to ensure energy security and investment.

[spygirl]

50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That site is 100% accurate to my area,my house went up 130% from 96 to 2004 and is the same price now as 2004 (down slightly),just as the graph shows for semis in my area.Over 25 years gone up 101%.I havent the inflation figures to hand,but that must be close to simply inflation.

That was the building societies demuting and discovering the wholesale funding markets.

Then, after 2004, because they ran out of customer , due to lending too much money on houses, hey discovered IO BTL which is nothing more than non amortising commercial bridging loans.

Then in 2007/8 they discovered they were a bunch of patsies.

And that is pretty much where (northern) UK housing has been stuck.

London/Southern housing is going all the way back down too, just later.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49960817

You always need to know the way the winds blowing.

Green energy needs around 15% backup that can be fired quickly until we have enough battery storage,probably 40 years away.

Next cycle will be all about the above,governments doing whatever to ensure energy security and investment.

Big hydrodams, with a big of gas back up.

Kielder is the closest in the UK.

I guess you could do something in the Lakes and Wales too.

Im really really interested to see how the East coast windymills pan out. I think these have legs. And, of intrestt to my, I can see the bases providing a reef and increasing fish population.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, spygirl said:

Big hydrodams, with a big of gas back up.

Kielder is the closest in the UK.

I guess you could do something in the Lakes and Wales too.

Im really really interested to see how the East coast windymills pan out. I think these have legs. And, of intrestt to my, I can see the bases providing a reef and increasing fish population.

 

Yep exactly Spy.Drax made a great move buying the pumped storage assets in Scotland.Wales most likely i think to see some new projects in that area.Gas prices will go up a lot in the next cycle and that might be tricky for Drax,but im sure they will be hedging and the capacity market payments are index linked to RPI i think.The pumped storage was going to be expanded,but Drax might not bother as that means the government will need the Selby plant on gas even more then as backup.

Uk in a really strong position energy wise if we play our cards right.

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep exactly Spy.Drax made a great move buying the pumped storage assets in Scotland.Wales most likely i think to see some new projects in that area.Gas prices will go up a lot in the next cycle and that might be tricky for Drax,but im sure they will be hedging and the capacity market payments are index linked to RPI i think.The pumped storage was going to be expanded,but Drax might not bother as that means the government will need the Selby plant on gas even more then as backup.

Uk in a really strong position energy wise if we play our cards right.

Drax, as was is basically dead. Coals staying put till they find a better way to burn it.

Wood and that crap is bollox.

However ..... its in an ideal location to have a gas station to plug right into the national grid.

The gas pipes come ashore at Hornsea, which is only about ~20 miles of unpopulated wolds.

he windy mills will also come in t various places between Kilnsea n Brid - it makes snese to have a lot more than 3 seperate powerl ines coming in.

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

It doesn't seem to cover Scotland, (we have our own land registry).  I did a quick google search for something similar, but came up blank.

EDIT TO ADD - I found it has data on asking prices in my area.  Not the same as selling prices, especially as there was a period where many went for between 10 and 50% over the asking price.
I do, however, broadly agree with their findings on asking price.

When I lived up there I used this for sold prices of individual properties by postcode.  

http://www.housepricescotland.com/

[DurhamBorn]

Once margins fall and profits cant cover the interest bill.Debt deflation.The question is do the companies survive or not,the debt holders are stuffed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49957551

"its operating profits were more than offset by high interest payments on its £1.1bn debt pile."

[headrow]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Drax, as was is basically dead. Coals staying put till they find a better way to burn it.

Wood and that crap is bollox.

However ..... its in an ideal location to have a gas station to plug right into the national grid.

The gas pipes come ashore at Hornsea, which is only about ~20 miles of unpopulated wolds.

he windy mills will also come in t various places between Kilnsea n Brid - it makes snese to have a lot more than 3 seperate powerl ines coming in.

 

20 miles from Hornsea to Drax?

 

I know you like to exaggerate but i reckon it's about 50.

[spygirl]

56 minutes ago, headrow said:

20 miles from Hornsea to Drax?

 

I know you like to exaggerate but i reckon it's about 50.

Alright, out a bit on this.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

 

 

On 06/10/2019 at 14:42, Moominpapa said:

unfortunately it did not come with figures just relative volume...

thanks Moominpapa, the graph was useful, and I am always on the outlook for 'good ideas' for selecting the correct asset allocation strategy, particularly in order to help fully exploit the next cycle.

In fact I think its mostly the reason for my earlier reference to those reflation divi equities as being bond proxies (though I admit I should have said 'alternatives'), I realise bonds/equities function in different ways, its just that the forum consensus seems that selecting a broad spread of good reflation utility/infrastructure stocks - ones that can be argued as becoming the 'bed-rock' of the next cycle - is as secure as buying bond ('like instruments', the idea is though bond coupons remains intact, bond capitol values are eaten away by high inflation; although i think you were specifically speaking of linkers, i believe these are still time limited?, so problematic when renewing). Personally, I perhaps rather 'simplistically' see the pending performance divergences between most stocks which are themselves massively over-valued and will get cheaper over time (with/without market crash), and when comparing them to reflation type stocks that will mostly outperform, as being kinda analogous to two different asset classes - not in the long term of course, as everything reverts to the mean over time, but for say the next 10 years or so. 

 

...Excuse this double-posting, but after rereading my original (very rushed and clumsy) post i noticed it didn't make to much sense. So attempted to edit the original, but instead system created this new post.  

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Darlington or Durham.Darlington cheap and east coast mainline in middle of town.30 minutes to Newcastle 2hr10 to Kings Cross.Durham about 15 minutes to Newcastle,but station more out of way from where youd probably buy.Darlington also 10 minutes away from Teeside airport and 35 minutes from Newcastle airport.

thanks DB, I was looking at Hartlepool also because of its coastal holiday market potential, but it looks like it is 45 mins to Newcastle.

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, JMD said:

thanks DB, I was looking at Hartlepool also because of its coastal holiday market potential, but it looks like it is 45 mins to Newcastle.

Avoid Hartlepool.I go there a lot etc and to Seaton Carew,great fish and chips etc,but i wouldnt buy a house there.You would be able to rent a house out easy in Durham for holiday lets,or in the Durham dales like Weardale (Wolsingham,Stanhope etc).Hartlepool has some very bad areas around it.Marina etc is really nice and the coast along there is great,just better to live 25 minute drive away instead of living there.

Years ago i used to go to a pub there on a Thursday,drink as much as you want for £10.Pulled a woman and turned out she was living in the womans refuge there and ran away from her crazy hubby.I made my excuses on that one.

2 hours ago, headrow said:

20 miles from Hornsea to Drax?

 

I know you like to exaggerate but i reckon it's about 50.

20 miles after global warming hits,we future proofing

[Bear Hug]

On 04/10/2019 at 16:12, DurhamBorn said:

I bought across 4 accounts i run yesterday,im only half in for myself though so would rather they kept going down to get two more ladders.15% of the market where Drax plays is the most interesting in the next cycle.

BBC: Drax: Block on power station development overruled

Quote

Four new gas-fired turbines at Drax power station have been approved by the UK government – against a ruling from its Planning Inspectorate.

The turbines are to replace coal-fired units, but the inspectorate said they should be blocked because of their impact on climate change.

Environmentalists argued that emissions from the turbines would contribute to breaching climate targets.

But the government said fossil fuel generation will still be needed.

It said the planning system shouldn’t make decisions on the issue.

More good news for you I guess.  I was actually looking at the share price around lunch on Fri and watched it run on my screen.  Probably too late now given today's news as well.

Might still get some cheap Royal Mail!  Before or after 15 Oct strike ballot results announcement, that's the question

[Barnsey]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

thanks DB, I was looking at Hartlepool also because of its coastal holiday market potential, but it looks like it is 45 mins to Newcastle.

I'm probably stating the obvious here but have you considered Morpeth?

[Sugarlips]

This list of countries to invest in for green energy is from Bloomberg, quite insightful from an economic standpoint