Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, kibuc said:

I'm afraid I cannot help you with that as I know just as little as the next man about royalty companies. However, a few people whose opinion I learned to value seem to be positive about Sandstorm, for whatever it's worth.

Personally, I find the roller-coaster of investing directly in a few selected juniors much more exciting :)

thanks kibuc, I only recently appreciated the function of royalty co's. I will continue investigating them. I do hold junior miners also, both directly via shareholdings and by using etf's, and was looking for other ways to hold - but also to balance the risk of owning these mini (manic!) minors.       

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

UK cyclicals mostly up strongly again.MSM will play the brexit card but its all about sterling strength that nobody expected (accept us).Its tricky to say where sterling will end up with so much noise,but it might be better to look at the dollar.Dollar road map is looking at around 88 maybe lower and cross market says sterling might see the $1.41/44 range.Some very large gains in some of these stocks and will top slice some probably if sterling hits around $1.37.

Likely the big foreign earning stocks in the FTSE will take a bath over the next few months as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

UK cyclicals mostly up strongly again.MSM will play the brexit card but its all about sterling strength that nobody expected (accept us).Its tricky to say where sterling will end up with so much noise,but it might be better to look at the dollar.Dollar road map is looking at around 88 maybe lower and cross market says sterling might see the $1.41/44 range.Some very large gains in some of these stocks and will top slice some probably if sterling hits around $1.37.

Likely the big foreign earning stocks in the FTSE will take a bath over the next few months as well.

Would sterling be back down strongly in the bust DB to its recent lows

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
On 19/10/2019 at 21:16, DurhamBorn said:

About 16 months after the printing begins above debt liquidation.I would expect mid 2021 for the US,we might get some token increases before that.As ever the first increases will be small,as will the inflation increases.The thing is though the rates will always be behind and playing catch up.Im seeing inflation 8% to 16% by 28.Rates might see double figures .A lot depends on the scale of printing.

THANKS for that @DurhamBorn, much appreciated!

Just one more question this will be the last question for a month or so as i'm busy moving...and will be checking out all the new places for REDUCTIONS!xD

Whats your thoughs on this: BT is plotting a return to the High Street!?

Personally i think this decision is CRAZY and will be disastrous for BT's share price!

 

12 hours ago, Barnsey said:

UK property asking prices show weakest October rise since 2008 - Rightmove

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-houseprices/uk-property-asking-prices-show-weakest-october-rise-since-2008-rightmove-idUKKBN1WZ0RY

Quite the headline. I know it's asking prices only, but this is the first mention I've seen of "worst since 2008", more to come.

Anyone else noticed the recent barrage of TV ads from Halifax and Barclays pushing parental guarantor mortgages?

https://www.barclays.co.uk/mortgages/family-springboard-mortgage/

Family Springboard mortgage? More like diving board xD

YEAH I did say i always bought at the TOP!

Last week i was checking the area where I've bought in the Cotswold's, and F**** my old boots, a 3 bedroom detached bungalow, with land came up ...reduced to £250K, i  rang the agent and he informed me the family had it on the market at 300K however now wanted a quick sale! (its gone now!)
 
SO its a BUYERS market and any House going for £250/300K...YOU should be able to get it REDUCED by a WHOPPING 30/50K!:D
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

UK cyclicals mostly up strongly again.MSM will play the brexit card but its all about sterling strength that nobody expected (accept us).Its tricky to say where sterling will end up with so much noise,but it might be better to look at the dollar.Dollar road map is looking at around 88 maybe lower and cross market says sterling might see the $1.41/44 range.Some very large gains in some of these stocks and will top slice some probably if sterling hits around $1.37.

Likely the big foreign earning stocks in the FTSE will take a bath over the next few months as well.

Sterling strength or weakness is tough to call so I made one for myself and took all profits made on my miners leaving my original outlay to sit in Sterling cash for now. I am going to sit on this healthy profit and wait for the oil stocks to turn down as I want the largest percentage of my portfolio to be in this sector. I must stay patient for this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Would sterling be back down strongly in the bust DB to its recent lows

Im really not sure,but it wont matter as i think all Fiat will be being de-valued against assets.If the dollar loses 80% and sterling 85% over the cycle i doubt we will care.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

THANKS for that @DurhamBorn, much appreciated!

Just one more question this will be the last question for a month or so as i'm busy moving...and will be checking out all the new places for REDUCTIONS!xD

Whats your thoughs on this: BT is plotting a return to the High Street!?

Personally i think this decision is CRAZY and will be disastrous for BT's share price!

 

YEAH I did say i always bought at the TOP!

Last week i was checking the area where I've bought in the Cotswold's, and F**** my old boots, a 3 bedroom detached bungalow, with land came up ...reduced to £250K, i  rang the agent and he informed me the family had it on the market at 300K however now wanted a quick sale! (its gone now!)
 
SO its a BUYERS market and any House going for £250/300K...YOU should be able to get it REDUCED by a WHOPPING 30/50K!:D
 

BT is up 25% from my last ladder buy.A few shops on the high street will have zero affect on the shares.I doubt the shops are about sales,more image and getting out there.They will have £10 billion EBIT later in the cycle i expect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder

Really happy with my DOSBODDERS portfolio, lots of green except the usual suspects.

Can really see the advantage of laddering over drip feeding now, but only with hindsight.

Quite amazed how things have run so far.

Thanks DB and everyone else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

The Canadian subsidiary was supposedly set up largely to handle the Trans Mountain project that they later sold. The share price is probably static because they have cash but not many projects in the pipeline as suggested in the second link.

thanks again Democorruptcy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SanchoPanza,  did you buy  CK Hutchison holdings  in the end? Or did the Hong-Kong political situation perhaps put you off?

Its a telecoms, along with energy and infrastructure businesses. Although its HQ is in Hong-Kong, its operations are mostly outside Hong-Kong. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

BT is up 25% from my last ladder buy.A few shops on the high street will have zero affect on the shares.I doubt the shops are about sales,more image and getting out there.They will have £10 billion EBIT later in the cycle i expect.

THANKS Mate, will be keeping an eye on BT ...its unreal the amount of internet firms that are piggybacking off BT's infrastructure!

I rekon ya sell soon as ya up quite a lot ?... especially so if we have an end-of-year rally MELT-UP... final ZOOM! :D

BTW, will report on Aldi, as there is one near my village where i'm moving to, so will be there at opening to check out the reductions, no doubt will see some foxy YUMMY-MUMMIES in thier country wear!xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
5 hours ago, JMD said:

SanchoPanza,  did you buy  CK Hutchison holdings  in the end? Or did the Hong-Kong political situation perhaps put you off?

Its a telecoms, along with energy and infrastructure businesses. Although its HQ is in Hong-Kong, its operations are mostly outside Hong-Kong. 

I'll butt in...

It's not a bad list of assets in the context of the thread?

 

Quote

 

CK Hutchison Holdings Limited is a Cayman Islands–registered multinational conglomerate headquartered in Hong Kong. The company was formed in March 2015 through the merger of Cheung Kong Holdings and its main associate company Hutchison Whampoa.[2] It is renowned for its five core businesses ‐ ports and related services, retail, infrastructure, energy and telecommunications, which operates in over 50 countries

Holdings[edit]

The company owns substantial holdings in businesses across a number of industries. Several subsidiaries also own holdings in their sister companies.[4]

Telecoms[edit]

Infrastructure[edit]

Ports[edit]

Retail[edit]

Energy[edit]

Other[edit]

 

Does it being a Cayman Islands holding company with a myriad of firms put anyone off?

HL chart is downwards.... currently.

Disclosure: I don't own any.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 20/10/2019 at 01:01, DurhamBorn said:

All we can do is try to navigate the outcomes and protect and grow our families wealth

Or `Buck the system` by paying as little tax as possible via wise use of tax breaks and reduced (or reduced price) consumerism.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What does this mean, "Transfer out" does that just mean he is transferring shares to ??  

 

For StageCoach received it as an alert for any director dealings

1954515699_Screenshot2019-10-22at09_47_35.png.f9094e324ac00ab60168b653f098bdde.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
On ‎20‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 00:32, Democorruptcy said:

 That's a sobering thought after reading something like this:

http://danielamerman.com/course/a/qdSEVENTEENbc.html

Fascinating read, the scale of the reduction in wealth of savers is eyewatering. It definitely points to catastrophe down the road, either you have a very impoverished population and the working folks (blue and white collar) completely destroyed or you have governments collapse under huge debt. The article helps understand the tipping point expected in 8-10 years

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Amid gloomy outlook for manufacturers, investment plans hit post-financial crisis low - CBI Industrial Trends

Quote

Headcounts

  • Numbers employed fell in the quarter to October (-9% from -8% in July) at their fastest rate since April 2010.
  • Firms expect employment to fall at an even faster pace next quarter (-22%), constituting the weakest expectations for headcounts since the financial crisis (Oct 2009).

https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/amid-gloomy-outlook-for-manufacturers-investment-plans-hit-post-financial-crisis-low-cbi-industrial-trends/

And also today:

BoE reform needed to boost firepower for downturns, think tank says

Quote

Positive Money said the BoE and government should create a new credit policy unit so the BoE can influence lending, and the central bank should also be able to outline its expectations for the government’s fiscal policy.

Currently, the BoE avoids commenting on fiscal policy, and it has only bought nominal quantities of corporate debt, to avoid steering lending towards particular businesses or sectors.

The BoE is currently accountable to parliament through the Treasury Committee of politicians. Citizens should also be able to have direct input, the report said, and there should also be periodic debates in parliament over the BoE’s mandate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/britain-boe-reform/boe-reform-needed-to-boost-firepower-for-downturns-think-tank-says-idUSL5N2765HA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's what we need. More Central Bankerism.

Problems solved.

Conclusions never seem to reach the wisdom that we may need less of something rather than more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm about to buy some Silver Britannias from CoinInvest to hopefully flog in a few years time, is it recommended I pay the premium for 2019 coins or will mixed years suffice when it comes to the resale value?

Thanks in advance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Ellandback said:

I'm about to buy some Silver Britannias from CoinInvest to hopefully flog in a few years time, is it recommended I pay the premium for 2019 coins or will mixed years suffice when it comes to the resale value?

Thanks in advance.

I have mixed years.  I don't think there is anything special about 2019 coins

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not strictly deflation related, but anyone know how would I go about finding out about investment opportunities in South American and African agriculture?  Any good resources that are understandable to the average man?

North America got absolutely smashed this year with floods, worst grain harvest on record I believe. #noplant19

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's not a bad list of assets in the context of the thread?

Does it being a Cayman Islands holding company with a myriad of firms put anyone off?

Democorruptcy, I agree re. CK Hutchinson Holdings, it looks good company and cheap at moment - just hope its not too good to be true! The 'Caymen Islands' could be hiding debts or other things I suppose?

Does anyone else own this telecom/energy/infrastructure conglomerate? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Loki said:

Not strictly deflation related, but anyone know how would I go about finding out about investment opportunities in South American and African agriculture?  Any good resources that are understandable to the average man?

North America got absolutely smashed this year with floods, worst grain harvest on record I believe. #noplant19

Just had a quick search and number 1 in the 11 biggest agricultural companies in the world is Adecoagro SA. On HL it seems to be this one 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...