Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

6 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Yes I did, and I still own a solid amount. I went through a similar excersise selling my Great Panther holding - looking for a junior silver miner that actually mines silver as its dominant metal and isn't a steaming pile of shit. Have to say picking are very, very slim. I own Alexco (top quality team), Endeavour (jury still out) and Impact (perpared to be royally fucked on Q3 report, insider selling in that period doesn't exactly fill me with confidence). Briefly looked into the likes of Fortuna Silver and Santacruz, hard pass. First Majestic offers decent leverage but it seems a bit expensive and the management has shaky record... then again, I was saying the same thing about Sibanye at $2.75 so what do I know.

thanks kibuc, I appreciate your reply - especially given this day of bad news... I've heard that the Canadian miners are generally a pretty sloppy bunch in terms of being 'economic with the truth', whereas Australian mining companies have higher standards enforced through greater regulatory control. I don't know whether this is true or not, but would be ironic don't you think, after aren't the Canadians meant to be the most virtuous nation on earth?  

    

  

[Sasquatch]

Any of you chaps use Selftrade? I'm stuck with them as part of my James Hay SIPP. Only recently transferred over to James Hay and I've just starting buying some stocks for the first time this afternoon. Placed three trades this afternoon but two others failed and up popped a  note saying 'Send To Dealer'. Rang them up to be told it should work but they didn't know why (after speaking to someone on the trading floor). Never had any problems with Hargreaves Lansdown. The whole Selftrade platform is pretty clunky in any case and this hasn't exactly improved my confidence in their procedures. I ended up with James Hay because of my desire to buy some gold bullion. Not many SIPP providers allow this form of investment. 

I really don't want to go through the hassle of moving to another SIPP provider. Am I being over sensitive with the performance of Selftrade versus HL? Perhaps the biggest worry would be wanting to sell in a volatile market but unable to do this online.

[Ellandback]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Ellandback, thanks for recommendation... GoldSilver.Be are lot cheaper at moment than CoinInvest, £1.75p per Britannia cheaper in fact which is mad! I don't remember seeing anything like this disparity before when I've checked in the past.

Do you have to pay in euros to get round having to pay the vat at GoldSilver.Be?  Or can you also just pay in £'s? 

You're welcome. You can avoid VAT using £'s, I just assumed I'd get stiffed using the exchange rate offered. Although I didn't do the maths so I may be overly cynical! Worth checking.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

£95 for summat fa kitchen, ee by gum tha must be made a brass.

I could buy 50+ Aldi pizzas for that.

Honest im as tight as they come,but best thing i ever bought.When family are around for a night i can feed 10 people for about £10 including chips and extras and they all love it.Plus if you check the ingredients on shop pizza they are stuffed with nasties,make your own and pizzas are actually really healthy.

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Honest im as tight as they come,but best thing i ever bought.When family are around for a night i can feed 10 people for about £10 including chips and extras and they all love it.Plus if you check the ingredients on shop pizza they are stuffed with nasties,make your own and pizzas are actually really healthy.

You could make some awesome ciabatta style bread in that as well with no more ingredients than flour, water, yeast and salt. Yummy.

I have also decided to open a SIPP, if ive got the sums on the tax relief correct.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats great info,il order some from there.How much of the live yeast do you use per pizza?,say how much per 200g of flour (i tend to use 200g per pizza)

This is what I love about this site...people go off at a tangent `Fanny Craddock stylee` (youngsters ask your Gran) for a second, the recipes are interspersed with PM buying suggestions, nobody gets upset, and after a few posts it is `business as usual`...:-)

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

This is what I love about this site...people go off at a tangent `Fanny Craddock stylee` (youngsters ask your Gran) for a second, the recipes are interspersed with PM buying suggestions, nobody gets upset, and after a few posts it is `business as usual`...:-)

Exactly,i love living frugal but as healthy as possible.Being frugal though iv bought a tin of the Pizza Express passata and have bought similar crushed tomato cira brand from BandM,looks very good quality and x2 as much.Iv bought some Basil to add as per the Pizza Express one and salt and pepper.Il compare the two and if very close il use the half price one in future.Im going to push the boat out and get some of that flour though.I use Sainsbury 00 pasta flour and thats very good,the Italian pizza one put up is 80% more,but might be worth it so il compare them both.Iv noticed my partner putting a chicken carcass in the bin with lots of chicken still on it underneath,thighs etc.From now on that will be getting stripped for pizzas toppings the next night.Im also going to try out some healthy cheap toppings,mushroom and leek being one 

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Its the red one you need ... but the blue one also does a job. Its what the pros use and is cheap compared to prices elsewhere.

That £6 delivery charge is putting me off.Il need to sleep on it a bit

[leonardratso]

weevils might get at it before you do.

[Viceroy]

On 31/10/2019 at 04:20, sancho panza said:

Viceroy,thanks for the heads up on this.I had a deeper look and it looks confusing at best,at worst you might be filling in a US tax return.

Given there are  alternatives available in these sectors around the market cap/coma scale scores of these LP companies,it makes sense to avoid and take the path of least resistance.

Like I said thank you.

You're welcome  - glad I could shine a light!

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, leonardratso said:

weevils might get at it before you do.

If they do they will be getting eaten with the pizzas 

[CVG]

10 hours ago, leonardratso said:

weevils might get at it before you do.

Dont be daft. Db will preserve it in one of his 11 freezers

[feed]

On 30/10/2019 at 20:01, DurhamBorn said:

 

Frugal can mean living much better.I bought the pizza oven below after an Italian friend told me about them.Saved a fortune since.Makes incredible pizza in 4 minutes.00 pasta flour from Sainsbury £1.10 will get you 5 pizzas,tomato puree from Lidl 33p mixed with water and oregano,grated cheese (never pre-grated as its mostly potato starch) and toppings i get in the reduced counter and freeze from cooked chicken ,ham,salami etc.I often make them to use up the last bits of a cooked chicken strip the underneath,legs etc.Usually works out about £1 a pizza and top quality.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/i/251558202672?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=710-134428-41853-0&mkcid=2&itemid=251558202672&targetid=595627790153&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=1006526&poi=&campaignid=6619151969&mkgroupid=84510980848&rlsatarget=aud-629407025185:pla-595627790153&abcId=1140496&merchantid=7286014&gclid=Cj0KCQjw6eTtBRDdARIsANZWjYZhBJD3QQj3PQRpOw-7bvxSumuOdJrM6EZe_TIeF4PlCrawpdejICAaAvwiEALw_wcB

 

If anyone was thinking about getting one. eBay have a 10% off £100+ purchases today (max £50 discount).

They're £99.99 at amazon. 

[Cosmic]

On 30/10/2019 at 20:01, DurhamBorn said:

 

Frugal can mean living much better.I bought the pizza oven below after an Italian friend told me about them.Saved a fortune since.Makes incredible pizza in 4 minutes.00 pasta flour from Sainsbury £1.10 will get you 5 pizzas,tomato puree from Lidl 33p mixed with water and oregano,grated cheese (never pre-grated as its mostly potato starch) and toppings i get in the reduced counter and freeze from cooked chicken ,ham,salami etc.I often make them to use up the last bits of a cooked chicken strip the underneath,legs etc.Usually works out about £1 a pizza and top quality.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/i/251558202672?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=710-134428-41853-0&mkcid=2&itemid=251558202672&targetid=595627790153&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=1006526&poi=&campaignid=6619151969&mkgroupid=84510980848&rlsatarget=aud-629407025185:pla-595627790153&abcId=1140496&merchantid=7286014&gclid=Cj0KCQjw6eTtBRDdARIsANZWjYZhBJD3QQj3PQRpOw-7bvxSumuOdJrM6EZe_TIeF4PlCrawpdejICAaAvwiEALw_wcB

That's Christmas for the GF sorted then! Doesn't quite top last years fancy vac* but can't win them all!

 

* For the record she asked for it and is over the moon about it... I think its a bit naff and prefer my Miele so we now have his'n'hers.

[Craig]

Glad everyone's enjoying their pizza ovens. I'm taking full credit for exposiing the DOSBODS masses to that. Ordered some of that flour, looking forward to seeing how much of a difference it makes, and going to seek out some Pizza Express passata over the weekend.

Will report back with findings.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

Is anyone holding off buying dollar denominated shares/commodities until after the election, on the basis Boris probably wins ... gets his surrender treaty through and then the pound rises? Thus a rise to 1.5 is not beyond the realms of fantasy.

That would be some rise from here I thought it might go to 1.4 be a top bonus if it went to 1.5

[Talking Monkey]

10 minutes ago, Tdog said:

It was over 1.5 though falling in the year prior to the referendum. Are you holding off in the case it rises to 1.4?

In terms of buying for the long haul in the SIPP and ISA for the bulk of it I am holding off till the big drops in the stock market rather than an optimal exchange rate

[JMD]

DB, not sure if this has been mentioned regarding Telford Homes? You mentioned this builder a little while back and I was looking to buy some if reasonable.

However, it has recently been bought out by CBRE - an American commercial real estate services/commercial real estate investment firm. Looks a peculiar fit but I expect CBRE had lots of money sloshing around. Also thought it a bit strange as Telford Homes had a 'social remit focus' (don't they all!) to build low cost homes - then again, perhaps they could see the writing on the wall for London property and were made an offer they couldn't refuse? 

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, not sure if this has been mentioned regarding Telford Homes? You mentioned this builder a little while back and I was looking to buy some if reasonable.

However, it has recently been bought out by CBRE - an American commercial real estate services/commercial real estate investment firm. Looks a peculiar fit but I expect CBRE had lots of money sloshing around. Also thought it a bit strange as Telford Homes had a 'social remit focus' (don't they all!) to build low cost homes - then again, perhaps they could see the writing on the wall for London property and were made an offer they couldn't refuse? 

Builders will be slaughtered in we get a 2009 style crash you could easily get tw. At sub 50p and I suspect tw has a larger land bank and readys in the bank than tef saying that tw did have an American arm and Spanish one that hamstrung it somewhat but I think they have off loaded both even so it's often said that builders are often the first into a recesion and the first to recover coming out of one

[JMD]

39 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Builders will be slaughtered in we get a 2009 style crash you could easily get tw. At sub 50p and I suspect tw has a larger land bank and readys in the bank than tef saying that tw did have an American arm and Spanish one that hamstrung it somewhat but I think they have off loaded both even so it's often said that builders are often the first into a recesion and the first to recover coming out of one

I agree, builders are not a buy at moment, but I think the idea for Telford Homes was that after any future house price correction, etc, TH have experience of building low-cost London homes and if Government then decided to splurge/subsidise the housing sector in order to please voters, builders like TH would be ideally placed. Perhaps this is why CBRE bought them, but as they are an American commercial-property focused operation I just thought it a strange marriage.     

[King Penda]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree, builders are not a buy at moment, but I think the idea for Telford Homes was that after any future house price correction, etc, TH have experience of building low-cost London homes and if Government then decided to splurge/subsidise the housing sector in order to please voters, builders like TH would be ideally placed. Perhaps this is why CBRE bought them, but as they are an American commercial-property focused operation I just thought it a strange marriage.     

Yes tef are London centric but I’ve no idea how much of a landbank there they have the bigger builders could easily move into there patch but there has been much talk in the past about new market towns comutable to London but the time to buy is not now if we are convinced a crash is in the pipeline

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Craig said:

Glad everyone's enjoying their pizza ovens. I'm taking full credit for exposiing the DOSBODS masses to that. Ordered some of that flour, looking forward to seeing how much of a difference it makes, and going to seek out some Pizza Express passata over the weekend.

Will report back with findings.

I used the Pizza Express passata tonight and it was superb.Tight wad that i am it will be getting  used every time.Iv ordered £20 of that flour as well from Amazon for 10 1kg bags.I had my 3 kids around tonight + partners and i cooked 4 pizzas,chips,garlic mushrooms etc,whole lot cost £9 for everyone and they were bloody lovely.Live yeast arrived today as well so broke it all into 25g bits,perfect for 1kg of flour,400g block for £5.90 and got enough for 16 x 4 pizzas.

12 hours ago, CVG said:

Dont be daft. Db will preserve it in one of his 11 freezers

Iv only got 3,though iv my eye on a chest one for the garage 

[sancho panza]

On 30/10/2019 at 19:58, Errol said:

Another vote for Sandstorm gold here. I am also a holder.

Starngely,I was having a chat with a family member saying we should buy more,came back from a night shift and they'd shot up 10%.I think the sub $6 USD days are gone.If they come back we'll get more

Worth noting VIX is plumbing annual lows.

On 30/10/2019 at 20:09, kibuc said:

Guyana Goldfields reported Q3 production and financials a few minutes ago. I only got to the "$1882 AISC" part and stopped reading, I might continue tomorrow but I think I already know all I need. It sucks to be right sometimes. 

Great Panther should report in the next half an hour or so. 

Also, Wesdome provided an absolutely stunning Eagle River exploration update yesterday and is flying today, +10% and touching all time highs. Q3 financials still to come next week. Yum yum. 

Thanks for all the updates kibuc.Always apreciate the wry humour you inject in your analysis.

We hold some guyana as part of our fourth line of our PM holdings.Similar weighting to Rio2/Integra/Alexco/Harmony(sadly never got more on)/Sibanye(same) around the 0.3% portfolio level.I suspect the winners are currently balancing the losers

At this stage of the bull first tier holdings are standing still-Newmont/Barrick/Fres,second tier are doing really well across the board-Sandstorm/Kinross/Goldfields/Anglogold etc

As IKN has suggested,it's the second tier where the institutional money will flow first,then later on the juniors should get a lift and that's where the multi baggers will come I hope.I think we'll hold Guyana/Superior from here.Have to accept some losers will occur through this.

On 30/10/2019 at 20:52, BearyBear said:

Sibanye Gold +7.26% today, +236% since I bought them.

One of our best perfomers having trebled.Balances the 50% losses on Superior/Guyana

On 31/10/2019 at 14:14, kibuc said:

Guyana - 27% at the open, Pretium -22%. 

PVG gets roundly slated by quite a few people,not sure I'll be buying that dip.We did get a few Osisko when they recently dropped around the $12 level.

[BearyBear]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

One of our best perfomers having trebled.Balances the 50% losses on Superior/Guyana

My biggest losses are New Gold and Great Panther, both -40%. The rest are green big style or break even.

btw. Gold has recently shown some strength with the highest daily/weekly close in a month. Still trapped in 1480-1520 range though…

[Errol]

I'm still buying with the sole focus on what share prices will be when gold is $5000 an ounce or more.

Gold's story is really only just beginning.