Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

On 30/10/2019 at 09:00, Democorruptcy said:

Re Telcos not sure I've seen Telia mentioned on here? They cropped up in a BT note this week:
 

 

thanks Democorruptcy for tip.

Has anyone looked into this telco? It looks interesting and price seems reasonable.

With my limited knowledge of interpreting financials company looks quiet healthy. They do have debt, but not sure if its high for sector. They were paying this down but it spiked back up 2 years ago - however, think this was due to acquisitions. They own a range of other european/us carrriers, e.g. 25% of Turkcell. 

[StrugglingMillennial]

Can i ask a cheeky question.

With metals prices moving can anyone point me to a good website i can buy the shares for the foriegn companies as i have no experience of buying foriegn stuff. Saved a previous comment but i cant find it now 🤔

[harp]

4 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Can i ask a cheeky question.

With metals prices moving can anyone point me to a good website i can buy the shares for the foriegn companies as i have no experience of buying foriegn stuff. Saved a previous comment but i cant find it now 🤔

Hargreaves Lansdown is the one I use for all my shares including miners.

[MvR]

19 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Can i ask a cheeky question.

With metals prices moving can anyone point me to a good website i can buy the shares for the foriegn companies as i have no experience of buying foriegn stuff. Saved a previous comment but i cant find it now 🤔

Most brokers offer foreign shares, though some cover more foreign markets than others. Interactive Investor ( www.ii.co.uk ) seems to be the retail broker offering the widest range of markets. They also allow you to keep multiple currencies in the one account, so if you're buying and selling US shares for example, you don't end up paying the FX conversion each time.

Edit: I just noticed there's costly monthly charge though, if you're not trading at least once or twice a month, and/or have a small account.

[Talking Monkey]

21 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

 

I was in Afghan 2012/13.Everything ran on USD there and the rate for cable was $1.64 or something mental fixed and supported by Uncle Sam.I filled my boots.My mates were asking my why I was buying dollars and diamonds.............never look a gift horse.

Agreed Stokie,I know I've been shorting builders on and off for a year so I'm slightly biased but why anyone's buying them jsut before the banking system deleverages,I don't really know.

And I think you're right on them being a great recovery play.Look at BDEV psot 2008.I got that worng

 

Looking at my own experiences of the opast two years since we started buying the goldies ,the actuion thus far has been in the $1bn + market.

I've set it up in lines but basically looking to have  a last line of invemsnets that are very smal but that's where all the pontential 50 baggers are going to be.Bet on 10,gold goes to $2500 and one of thems a winner.You only need one.

I think it's well worth having a few well placed small/high risk reward bets.We're on some Barrick,reality is that they''ll likely go nowhere.Reality is a small holding in sibanye has alredy done more than chunky Barrick/Newmont holdings

Post 08 I have been blown over at what some stocks have done that were properly on the ropes during the crises I guess that's QE for you

SP on the miners high risk rewards list would you have any recommendations or is it more place across the long list posted here by folks in the past

[Thorn]

31 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Post 08 I have been blown over at what some stocks have done that were properly on the ropes during the crises I guess that's QE for you

SP on the miners high risk rewards list would you have any recommendations or is it more place across the long list posted here by folks in the past

DYOR etc but here’s a wee list of some in this particular portfolio I came across- if you fancy having a butchers at them Talking Monkey.

Decl- I am long several including First Majestic who are even starting to talk about giving out divis soon. 

[Thorn]

And here anybody been watching Future? They publish Practical Caravan and Airgun Shooter...

DB what do you think of this stock they have had a heck of a year... although they seem to get lots of online shopping clicks.

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Post 08 I have been blown over at what some stocks have done that were properly on the ropes during the crises I guess that's QE for you

SP on the miners high risk rewards list would you have any recommendations or is it more place across the long list posted here by folks in the past

I'm the worst market timer on this thread.And I'm that bad at stock picking that I spray n pray.

Which explains why I aim to spread our high risk allowance, across a range of small stocks,even stakes.

Watching the interhcange between CP and MP as per below,I jsut think,these are the sorts of shares where you take some profit from soemwhere else and let it run.

Edit to add,we already own some smaller stocks that are high risk eg Integra/Guyana/Alexco etc.I'm talking about genuine lottery punts.................................hereafter

I've got my disclaimer in but I got the following two from a tipsheet I get

 

Amarillo-I sold a while back but am tempted to put a lot less back in and leave it.

Cartier Resources

and then I'd have a nibble at Ariana Resources because I like the name.Which is about the level you're at with these sorts of punts..... :-)

And of course I'll have a nibble at Northern as I like th imagery of all the salmon and the bears

 

On 02/11/2019 at 12:18, Cattle Prod said:

@kibuc or any other miner folks, have you ever looked at Northern Dynasty Minerals? The geology of Pebble Mine looks astonishing. I was in the area recently looking at a project, and it came to my attention when they said there was a big mining project nearby that would need gas.

I understand the problems with sanctioning it (its a stunning area, full of bears and salmon etc) but I can't see how such a resource will not be sanctioned when gold/silver/copper truly start to move in the next few years - they can gold plate the environmental standards needed. Tempted with a small position.

Question I have is - why are the big guys not interested?

WOuld be nice to hear if anyone else has any?And by that I mean high odds bets.No more,no less.I'll see if I can dig a few more out.

 

As above @Majorpain  @kibuc

[StrugglingMillennial]

Thankyou harp & MvR for the share info 🙏

Changing the subject i see Mothercare looks like its about to go bust, to be honest i thought it had shut up shop years ago.

[BadAlchemy]

6 hours ago, Thorn said:

And here anybody been watching Future? They publish Practical Caravan and Airgun Shooter...

DB what do you think of this stock they have had a heck of a year... although they seem to get lots of online shopping clicks.

 

I bought their Guitar Techniques mag for many, many years. Best mag out there. £6 a pop though. Very first thing I cut out when I decided to go all frugal a couple of years ago... keep the hobby but cut back on the related non-essentials. Would it therefore not be a 'deflationary stock' in that case?

Having said that they were making moves into online presence a few years ago so perhaps ahead of the curve compared to competitors?

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Can i ask a cheeky question.

With metals prices moving can anyone point me to a good website i can buy the shares for the foriegn companies as i have no experience of buying foriegn stuff. Saved a previous comment but i cant find it now 🤔

If you are doing US shares:

W-8BEN

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50283719

Putting that there.

"Government spending is likely to head back towards 1970s levels "

Macro work is about spotting those facts two years ago,actually 7 or 8 years ago.Like iv said many times we are heading for a 70s style reflation.Where people are wrong though is its not going to be tax paying for it all,it will be inflation.The economy cannot support the claims on it.Too much is being given to too many and when that happens inflation isnt far behind.Gilts could go from 0.9% on the 15 year to 8% or even more by the end of the next cycle.Thats going to make a huge hole in pensions of people in draw down using a 40% bond portfolio.

I should add it wont be shares picking up the slack,at least not the broad market,the inflation etc and money coming out of bonds etc will be going into commods.Most people including almost all on Wall St and the City have forgot real assets can soak up the money in a distribution cycle.

[BearyBear]

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: What’s Behind the Fed’s Bailout of the Repo Market?

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/11/03/the-wolf-street-report-whats-behind-the-feds-bailout-of-the-repo-market/

 

[Talking Monkey]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm the worst market timer on this thread.And I'm that bad at stock picking that I spray n pray.

Which explains why I aim to spread our high risk allowance, across a range of small stocks,even stakes.

Watching the interhcange between CP and MP as per below,I jsut think,these are the sorts of shares where you take some profit from soemwhere else and let it run.

Edit to add,we already own some smaller stocks that are high risk eg Integra/Guyana/Alexco etc.I'm talking about genuine lottery punts.................................hereafter

I've got my disclaimer in but I got the following two from a tipsheet I get

 

Amarillo-I sold a while back but am tempted to put a lot less back in and leave it.

Cartier Resources

and then I'd have a nibble at Ariana Resources because I like the name.Which is about the level you're at with these sorts of punts..... :-)

And of course I'll have a nibble at Northern as I like th imagery of all the salmon and the bears

 

WOuld be nice to hear if anyone else has any?And by that I mean high odds bets.No more,no less.I'll see if I can dig a few more out.

 

As above @Majorpain  @kibuc

Thank you SP, makes sense on having even stakes across a lot

[sleepwello'nights]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Gilts could go from 0.9% on the 15 year to 8% or even more by the end of the next cycle.Thats going to make a huge hole in pensions of people in draw down using a 40% bond portfolio.

I should add it wont be shares picking up the slack,at least not the broad market,the inflation etc and money coming out of bonds etc will be going into commods.Most people including almost all on Wall St and the City have forgot real assets can soak up the money in a distribution cycle.

Yet again you make me concerned over the Gilt holdings I've purchased. They're mainly index linked so as I understand they should be protected from the high inflation outlook you foresee. 

Also can you give some of your thoughts on commodities, apart from Precious metals and miners that are well covered in these threads.

[Sugarlips]

Random but if you’ve got kids/grandkids and you want them to get into collecting silver you could do worse than this ‘free’ silver thruppence from the London Mint, they normal retail for £8.50 but for now you can just pay £2.50 postage:

 

https://www.londonmintoffice.org/freegeorgevsilverthreepence?utm_source=LMO_HF&utm_medium=Email_MonarchsPress&utm_campaign=92011974&activity=92011974

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Yet again you make me concerned over the Gilt holdings I've purchased. They're mainly index linked so as I understand they should be protected from the high inflation outlook you foresee. 

Also can you give some of your thoughts on commodities, apart from Precious metals and miners that are well covered in these threads.

Linkers will be good investments and likely hard to get hold of down the road.Commods will all be much higher by 2027,but there could be gut churning falls first.

[Majorpain]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

WOuld be nice to hear if anyone else has any?And by that I mean high odds bets.No more,no less.I'll see if I can dig a few more out.

Silver bull Resources on TSX, as always DYOR as its currently illiquid as F**k.  No recommendation from me as its high risk of 100% loss.

[DurhamBorn]

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE,DYOR etc,but il throw one in for a high odds bet,could go belly up or 20x,, Mirasol Resources Ltd .They have rights to what might be fantastic silver prospects in Argentina among others.$20 million of cash,$30million market cap.Insiders own 28% of the stock and found some of Goldcorps big deposits.

I bought some with some profits when i sold my gold miners and am happy to lose the lot in them.They are the sort of stock that would treble in a silver bull on fundamentals,then 5x again as they become a hyped darling.Or go bust before any of that.

[DurhamBorn]

More boom times in the EU .When you can borrow for free everyone expands up until there is no margin left,then who survives is who has the least debt mostly,or the best repayment profile.Debt deflation ongoing will clear out a lot of companies and the QE ahead will feed direct into inflation.Set up is the classic deflation/inflation .

Another largely dire German manufacturing PMI as index only edged up to 42.1 in October from September's 123-month low of 41.7, still indicates deep contraction. Output & orders (at 4-month high) declines still sharp despite some slowdown. Job losses most for nearly 10 years.

More weak news on Italy as purchasing managers report manufacturing activity contracted at fastest rate since March & for 13th month running in October. PMI down to 47.7 (47.8 in September). Output contracted most since January; new orders fell again.

 

[BearyBear]

2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Random but if you’ve got kids/grandkids and you want them to get into collecting silver you could do worse than this ‘free’ silver thruppence from the London Mint, they normal retail for £8.50 but for now you can just pay £2.50 postage:

 

https://www.londonmintoffice.org/freegeorgevsilverthreepence?utm_source=LMO_HF&utm_medium=Email_MonarchsPress&utm_campaign=92011974&activity=92011974

Looks like they can be bought on ebay in large quantities for less than £2 each including postage...

[janch]

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Ariana Resources because I like the name.

I've got a bet on this one too and it was up a fair bit today last time I looked

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Silver bull Resources on TSX, as always DYOR as its currently illiquid as F**k.  No recommendation from me as its high risk of 100% loss.

Worth noting Wesdome has 20 bagged since 2013 low.Kirkland lake has 89 bagged since 2013 low.

I'm making a list below

 

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE,DYOR etc,but il throw one in for a high odds bet,could go belly up or 20x,, Mirasol Resources Ltd .They have rights to what might be fantastic silver prospects in Argentina among others.$20 million of cash,$30million market cap.Insiders own 28% of the stock and found some of Goldcorps big deposits.

I bought some with some profits when i sold my gold miners and am happy to lose the lot in them.They are the sort of stock that would treble in a silver bull on fundamentals,then 5x again as they become a hyped darling.Or go bust before any of that.

Small cap gambles

Silver Bull Res MC CAD $17mn-MP

Amarillo MC CAD  $ 36mn-SP

Cartier Resources MC CAD $26mn-SP

Mirasol Res MC CAD $29.7mn-DB

Compass Gold MC CAD $16mn-Pamplona Trader

 

Mid Cap gambles

Northern Dynasty MC CAD $287mn-CP

 

Nice name gambles

Ariana Res  GBP £ 23mn-SP/Janch

 

Please feel free to add some names if you have any.

 

5 hours ago, BearyBear said:

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: What’s Behind the Fed’s Bailout of the Repo Market?

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/11/03/the-wolf-street-report-whats-behind-the-feds-bailout-of-the-repo-market/

 

A really excellent listen.It's quite unreal what Wolf reveals about some of the main beneficiaries of the Feds largesse.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

More boom times in the EU .When you can borrow for free everyone expands up until there is no margin left,then who survives is who has the least debt mostly,or the best repayment profile.Debt deflation ongoing will clear out a lot of companies and the QE ahead will feed direct into inflation.Set up is the classic deflation/inflation .

Another largely dire German manufacturing PMI as index only edged up to 42.1 in October from September's 123-month low of 41.7, still indicates deep contraction. Output & orders (at 4-month high) declines still sharp despite some slowdown. Job losses most for nearly 10 years.

More weak news on Italy as purchasing managers report manufacturing activity contracted at fastest rate since March & for 13th month running in October. PMI down to 47.7 (47.8 in September). Output contracted most since January; new orders fell again.

 

Markets on a tear today across the globe.'Trade wars off ' trading day.

I jsut cannot see what buyers of Eurozone stocks are looking at today........

Oil and oil services trundling up on the back of it.

 

 

[Sasquatch]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE,DYOR etc,but il throw one in for a high odds bet,could go belly up or 20x,, Mirasol Resources Ltd .They have rights to what might be fantastic silver prospects in Argentina among others.$20 million of cash,$30million market cap.Insiders own 28% of the stock and found some of Goldcorps big deposits.

I bought some with some profits when i sold my gold miners and am happy to lose the lot in them.They are the sort of stock that would treble in a silver bull on fundamentals,then 5x again as they become a hyped darling.Or go bust before any of that.

I had a punt on Mirasol a month or so ago. Currently down 14% but it's a long term bet (long term meaning at least 5 years) 

Recently bought £500 worth of Jubilee Metals (JLP). Checked just now and currently 50% up! A good reminder of the volatility of these penny stocks. Again, this is a long term acquisition.

I'm fortunate to have some spare cash and, with the approval of Mrs S, I've thrown about £10,000 at approx 15 no. PM miners, some in the penny stock category. Mrs S is dreaming of a country retreat in retirement. Whether it's a one bed shack or a Yorkshire Dales farmhouse remains to be seen