Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

MacroVoices #192 Keith McCullough : Inflation Accelerating

https://www.macrovoices.com/736-macrovoices-192-keith-mccullough-inflation-accelerating

  • Q4 2019 Macro themesWhat is next? 
  • Inflation or stagflation – is time to own gold?
  • What is next for the Chinese economy?
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Equity markets – FOMO vs. deteriorating earnings expectations
  • Perspective on the market melt up
  • Labor share of income and corporate margins
  • Long short pairs trade in software industry
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
7 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I think the political situation (and whom is wrong/right/bad/good) in my lifetime comes down to two questions and a single statement:

1. Why do we still have such great disparity in wealth?

2. Why is there such little incentive/reward for people to better themselves through hard work?

...perhaps these continually fail to be addressed by any political party/politician as they themselves benefit massively whilst they remain unanswered.

Nicely put. Whilst not being addressed as you say it does seem like it's also rising on some kind of agenda / zeitgeist with for example the FT covering there paper with the question is the system broken.  Then people like ray dalio and our own dB forecasting pretty turbulent times coming, oh dear

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
20 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I'll have a go.

Cash is my plan for the deflation.  I'm holding on to pm stocks for the moment.  But looking to sell and go into cash over the next few months, (as and when I think investments have run their course, or at the first sight of a dramatic drop if I time it wrong).  I'm holding on in the short-term, for the possibilities of QE, or a commodities led melt-up, or the China trade deal going bad - any of which might lead to a last hurrah for the metals.
I think cash will be a great place to be in the deflation, while anything and everything else might be going downward.
Not a problem of mine, but if you have more than £85,000, spread it around in multiple banks, for the government guarantee.
I don't particularly like the idea of being all-cash, for all the reasons you stated.  I'll spread mine around in a variety of places, including under the mattress, buying a USD ETF, some in my HL account, bank account, business bank account, or in my Royal Mint account.
Will look at the TLT ETF (US government bonds), and possibly put some in that, as the only non-cash thing I'd be holding - depending on if it looks cheap at the time.

Timing the start and end of the deflationary period is of course, the tricky bit.

Why bother with banks? 

NS&I is 100% guaranteed and no FSCS limit. Though this account is £1m max deposit but this is £2m for any overspill!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

King of Fools
22 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Suicide actually took 3 of them.One of them through probably too much drinking and smoking over the years.He worked etc,his diet was very poor as well.The suicides all due to women in one way or another,though not the womens fault.One simply had an argument with his wife and snapped,one never got over his wife leaving him and he ended up an alco smack head living with a woman the same.Ropes those two.The other was having an affair and it all came out.Blew his brains out in his shed.A few of the lasses from our group back then have died as well,cancer mostly,and a few have been very ill.

The irony is the lads were as tough as youd meet.They would jump in a scrap with 20 lads and crawl home laughing with broken bones,yet some scars go too deep i guess.

For all our towns been rough ,The Smiths were the most popular band at the time.Some of the most romantic moments in life often happen in the most melancholy of places.

 

There is a light that never goes out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chewing Grass
5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Only the So-Called BBC can come up with shit that boils my blood this much:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50306994

I ask myself what the point of this article is.

Anyone could have been selected at random for that truly empty piece, as usual there is no journalistic tag to the article so it could have been written by a bot.

Strangely the So-Called BBC has a game show called pointless as well which does sort of sum up the whole outfit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Tdog said:

@DurhamBorn

One thing i'm not getting is you're seeing the price of PM's to fall in the coming months ..... but this is the time the central banks are going to start printing, hence people will see the dollar, yen, Euro as the toilet paper CB's are turning them into .... so would logic not suggest in this scenario PM's would rise?

Now i do get it that when the "bust" happens people sell PM's to pay off debts ..... at which point CB's stick the printing press on full whack and along with infrastructure spending faith in fiat currency is depleted so PM's go to the moon.

But why in the coming months and in the lead up to the bust do you see them taking a significant fall?

My crude understanding, for what it's worth...
I don't know if anyone cares about the currencies being toilet paper any more... it seems to be the new normal.
However, with the CBs printing again, many will read that as a sign that the plates will be kept spinning... the zombie consumer economy will continue some more ( the theory here though is that it's all too late to stop the bust coming anyway). So people stay in their traditional investment patterns, and/or cash. There is downward effect on PM prices. Possibly there is a stock market melt up stage here too.

When the bust does come, it will force financially 'distressed' people (cashflow problems)  to sell assets in the immediate aftermath, and that will include those who hold PMs. Prices go down... Great buying opportunity.

Then, people who survive the immediate bust and that have wealth to protect will seek refuge in PMs. Prices rise. Theory here is that government spending on infrastructure then follows...industrial demand for precious metals increases from this and so prices rise even more.

As well as PMs, I understand there is a window of opportunity to seek refuge in (and make gains from) US treasuries (TLT / IBTL etc). Again my crude understanding, for what it's worth, is that the price of US treasuries is heading down currently for the same reason i.e. the US turning on the printing press... keeping the plates spinning (they think). When the bust/liquidity crisis/whatever you call it increasingly looks likely, people with wealth to protect will also seek refuge in US treasuries. The price goes up. However, unlike PMs, as soon as governments begin massive spending on infrastructure that would be the time to leave the safety of treasuries... immediate financial crisis has been averted.. US treasury prices head down.. head for PMs and reflation stocks. Fill your boots !
That is the crude understanding/model I have in my head anyway... hope you don't mind me chipping in. Someone do correct me if that's all wrong! O.o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 07/11/2019 at 18:05, JMD said:

Thank you SP for your earlier reply to me regarding De Grey/Silver Mines. I will have to think about this because, even with holding Silver Lake Resources, my personal risk/reward strategy is not working out quiet as I had calculated/hoped.

For example, amongst the junior PM miners, I was looking at Brixton Metals and Pure Gold Mining, as I noticed Sprott (billionaire gold bull) had big stakes in these. BTW, I do use other criteria(!) but thought this fact interesting.

You mention that you have done your SCS's for GDXJ and other indexes, would you be able to share these at all? I am still buying the miners and know it would help me greatly to judge more appropriately in terms of risk. My intention is to buy a diversified spread of these juniors (I am mostly happy with my large-cap miner portfolio) for buy-and-hold into the next cycle whilst they are still cheap.     

 

Please don't mlaugh but most of my SCS records are pen on paper.I work a lot of paper.Rough notes with portfolio holdings.When one of the kids gets to my study and scrwawls al over my papers I keep saying I need to start working on a PC but using paper helps me organiose my thoughts.Our 3 year old doesnt care and anythign thats needed for setting up his doctors surgeries and shops get used and destroyed .....It takes me a lot of time to upload them onto the thread.I may have time wed but I may not.

On 07/11/2019 at 20:48, DoINeedOne said:

Eldorado Gold had a fun day i see -15.2%

Yeah,I was dip buying Kinross in my short term account fri but I still wouldn't touch Eldorado having sold in sept.Was glad to be out having held since 2017

On 09/11/2019 at 08:27, MrXxxx said:

Any one else like to give their perspective on this, as mine is a similar scenario?

Note, as always I reserve the right to completely ignore your `financial advice` and lose what little money I have ! :-)

@Clueless Imbecile as well.I think the answer lies in buying sectors that are eesentail to daily life and trade plsu some PM's imho.

What CI talks about is the risk of buying the FTSE 100 ETF when he shoudl be looking for sectoral exposure.The essemtials of life are food,oil,gas,electricity.Theyre the places that will find it easiest to hedge inflation.things funded with credit eg hosuing may stuggle although a mortgage -if you can get one-in an inflationary envronement is a good option.even if the price doesn't move with inflation the debt will decline relative to the uderlying if wages keep abreast of it ir even if they lag some.

currency debasement can gather pace at 6%/7%.

On 09/11/2019 at 10:43, DurhamBorn said:

Mine is 12.5% cap,but my partners is 2.5%.

 

I can remember being very poor when i was a kid in the 70s and when i left school in the 80s it was brutal,everything had shut.We used to go over the landfill and dig up all the dumped reject ciggies from the Rothmans factory and sell the baccy (after we took our own).They used to dump porn mags there as well and we used to get the ones that werent mush and sell them to fellas coming out of the workmans club.A few of the lads in our group from back then are dead now and im not even 50.

I came out of school in Leicester in 87.Huge unempklyoement ad the facotires that had employed tens of thosuansds of people in textiles and engineering had gone.

 

Companies like Bentleys(knitting machien maker),Woodalls(carpentry machines),Corahs(textiles),Co Op Shoe factory,Ricard Roberts(textiles)..............was very hard looking for a job.People remember the coal mining decline because of the strike but places like Leicester lost loads of jobs.ANd good paying skilled jobs too.

Theyve never come back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 09/11/2019 at 13:02, Talking Monkey said:

Being raised in the north I was a kid in the 80s  we were poor but it didn't seem like it as all the kids I went to school with were all from similar backgrounds so we didn't realise we didn't have anything, we didn't realise we were poor. I got lucky as I pissed about in education long enough to avoid coming out to no work although I grafted in factories and warehouses during the summers. In the years since that northern simple living has stayed with me to a certain extent, if I get booted back to poverty (some times I run thought experiments in my mind) I know I have the hustle and grit to grind through and that is what my northern upbringing instilled in me. The years of plenty post education where I got to do some fantastic things will be pleasant memories I'll get to keep. I won't be scared to go back to graft hard again for little money.

Some of the lads a couple of years older than me who came out of education to no work developed a despondency that never left them, they aged at an unbelievable rate and were old men by 40. Some of them had great potential but that setback early on derailed them for life. There were probably thousands of young people who were derailed in the 80s, thousands more in 2008/9 and there will be thousands more young people who will be derailed in the next couple of years, their lives taking a completely different trajectory to what they had hoped for.

There were huge strutural problems with the British economy in the 80's that needed resolving.1 was the inefficiency of the public utilities 2 public sector unions that bled the economy of productive capacity 3 structural unemployment resulting from sterling strength psot north sea oil 4 entrepreneurial failure..

There was always going to be a painful transition as these were dealt with and got resolved.If you were mobile your chances were better but in Leicester we lost a lot of jobs that used to be considered jobs for life

4a few anecdotes-mates dad spoke to one of the directors at Woodalls and suggested making a couple of new products.Director told him,'at woodalls we make it and the consumer buys it.'Mates dad decided to get out as he could see the end from that.

grandads mate worked in the pits near Barnsley.He used to tell me as a kid how inefficient the pits were.Lot of miners got paid mega redundancy incl him but most didn't use it wisely.

In each generation that faces a big recession,despondency is an issue.We felt it in the 80's but new opportunities did come along and always will do.

I see a lot of people who blame all their ills on someone/somethign else and whislt they may have a point,you have to be proportionate in dsipensing blame.

On 09/11/2019 at 20:54, Dogtania said:

Anyway to the point and why I'm writing is just curious your take on Thatcher and the 80s.  I thought the Tories in the 80s hollowed out the North, not sure if there was any other option or maybe just it was being in wrong place wrong time (ie like say being born in poor village in Nepal or whatever)

 

My Mrs was born and raised in south africa.She often points out that a lot of our problems are what might be called first world problems.Quite right too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

under the 'what bubble ' series.its important to note that the revolving credit figures excludes people like myself who pay of cc every mpnth.add car/studetn/cc/non krotgage debt and that's a fair chunk of US gdp-nearly $5trn stcok

 

one of Wolfs best

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/11/08/the-state-of-the-american-debt-slaves-q3-2019-paying-the-university-corporate-financial-complex/

Paying the University-Corporate-Financial Complex and the big bifurcation.

Student-loan balances jumped by 5.1% in the third quarter compared to Q3 last year, or by $80 billion, to a new horrifying record of $1.64 trillion, having skyrocketed by 120% in the 10 years since Q3 2009, according to Federal Reserve data released Thursday afternoon. Over the same 10-year period, when student loans soared 120%, the Consumer Price Index has increased 19%. Student loan balances are 7.6% the size of GDP, up from 5.1% in 2009.

US-consumer-credit-student-loans-2019-Q3

But the explosion of student debt is not because there is an explosion in enrollment in higher education. On the contrary: According to the latest data from the National Center for Education Statistics, enrollment fell by 7% between 2010 and 2017. But those fewer and fewer students are borrowing more and more to pay for tuition, transportation, electronic devices, and other things that the University-Corporate-Financial Complex gets rich off.

This includes “student housing,” which has become a hugely hyped asset class with its own student-housing Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities where delinquency rates are now spiking.

Everyone is trying to make money off the proceeds from these government-guaranteed loans. The students are just the money-conduit from the taxpayer to:

  • Universities trying to grow their empires
  • Corporations such as Apple selling their products to students
  • Textbook publishers with monopolistic rip-off strategies.
  • Landlords seeking a high yield on their investment, and Wall Street seeking fees on securitizing it all.
  • Ticket vendors, grocery stores, bars, restaurants, car dealers, airlines, and others.

Auto loans and leases.

Total auto loans and leases outstanding for new and used vehicles in the third quarter rose 4.3% from a year ago, by $50 billion, to a record of $1.19 trillion:

Over the past 10 years, since Q3 2009, auto loan balances have surged 62%, compared to the increase in the Consumer Price Index of 19% and population growth of 8%. So, on an inflation-adjusted per-capita basis, the burden of these loans has increased. In terms of the size of the overall economy, auto-loan balances have ticked up from 5.1% of GDP in 2009 to 5.6% of GDP currently.

US-consumer-credit-auto-2019-Q3.png

This 4.3% rise in auto loan balances outstanding has occurred despite new-vehicle unit sales that declined by 1.6% so far this year and despite lackluster used-vehicle unit sales. It’s the result of numerous factors, including:

Credit cards and other Revolving credit

Outstanding balances on credit cards and other revolving credit, such as personal lines of credit – but not credit secured by housing, such as HELOCs – rose 3.6% in Q3 compared to Q3 last year, to $1.04 trillion (not seasonally adjusted). This was a record for a third quarter, and was the second highest quarter ever, below only the borrow-till-you-drop holiday frenzy of Q4 last year.

But in overall terms, as a national average, consumers have been fairly prudent by American standards, compared to the era before the Great Recession, to the consternation of lenders that milks enormous profits from credit-card debt where interest rates can exceed 20%.

Over the past 11 years since Q3 2008, just before it all fell apart, credit card balances edged up only 5.8%. Over these 11 years, the Consumer Price Index rose 22% and the population grew about 9%. So adjusted for inflation and per-capita, consumers have shed credit card debt.

In terms of the size of the economy: In Q3 2008, revolving credit amounted to 6.8% of GDP. Today, it’s down to 4.8% of GDP. So, in terms of credit cards, consumers overall as a national average have become more prudent.

US-consumer-credit-cards-2019-Q3.png

The big bifurcation.

On one side are consumers who use their credit cards only as payment system and to get cash-back, miles, and whatever loyalty rewards, but they pay their cards off every month and carry no balances and pay no interest or fees. Since they have no interest-bearing credit card debt, their activities are not included in consumer credit.

On the other side are consumers with maxed-out credit cards or with large balances, and they have personal loans, payday loans, etc. They’re sitting ducks for the lending industry because they cannot pay off the loans but pay interest and fees out of their nose, wobble from paycheck to paycheck, and if something goes wrong, become delinquent. It’s these people who owe the lion’s share of that $1.04 trillion in revolving credit – which is why credit card debt sours so fast during a downturn.

Total Non-Housing consumer credit.

Student loans, auto loans, and revolving credit combined into total consumer credit — which excludes housing related credit such as mortgages — jumped by $193 billion in Q3 from a year ago, or by 4.9%, to $4.13 trillion, another record:

US-consumer-credit-total-2019-Q3.png

That $193 billion increase in consumer debt over the past 12 months – whether from student loans, auto loans, or credit cards – was spent and boosted consumer spending (about $14.5 trillion) by 1.3%. And it boosted GDP by about 0.9%. That’s why economists want consumers to borrow-and-spend.

Students are an increasingly big part in this GDP-boost formula. That’s why economists and politicians don’t want to attack the problem where it really is: cracking down on the costs.

Instead, they’re trying to reshuffle as to who is paying for it – and it’s not the two beneficiaries of this process, namely the students getting an education and the University-Corporate-Financial Complex leeching off the process.

And they have found taxpayers who are owed this money. Broad student loan forgiveness is also utterly unfair to former students who paid off their loans and now would have to pay off the loans of other students; to parents who sacrificed a lot to fund their kids’ education and now would have to fund the education of other kids; and to many students themselves, who tried to avoid student debt, worked like maniacs and skimped on everything to pay their way through college, who went to the cheapest schools and stretched out their education, and who got less fancy jobs because of it, and now they would have to pay off the debt of other students that splurged on debt and might have ended up with better jobs.

The real problem that needs to be dealt with in terms of student loans is the cost of education – not who pays for it – and the costs are driven by the primary beneficiary of all this, the University-Corporate-Financial Complex.

UPDATE Nov 9: Dear readers, excellent comments and discussions below. You’re missing out if you don’t venture below the line. And you can chime in as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There were huge strutural problems with the British economy in the 80's that needed resolving.1 was the inefficiency of the public utilities 2 public sector unions that bled the economy of productive capacity 3 structural unemployment resulting from sterling strength psot north sea oil 4 entrepreneurial failure..

There was always going to be a painful transition as these were dealt with and got resolved.If you were mobile your chances were better but in Leicester we lost a lot of jobs that used to be considered jobs for life

4a few anecdotes-mates dad spoke to one of the directors at Woodalls and suggested making a couple of new products.Director told him,'at woodalls we make it and the consumer buys it.'Mates dad decided to get out as he could see the end from that.

grandads mate worked in the pits near Barnsley.He used to tell me as a kid how inefficient the pits were.Lot of miners got paid mega redundancy incl him but most didn't use it wisely.

In each generation that faces a big recession,despondency is an issue.We felt it in the 80's but new opportunities did come along and always will do.

I see a lot of people who blame all their ills on someone/somethign else and whislt they may have a point,you have to be proportionate in dsipensing blame.

My Mrs was born and raised in south africa.She often points out that a lot of our problems are what might be called first world problems.Quite right too.

I guess the new set of structural problems that have developed since the 80s will now have to be addressed in the next decade or so. Agree with what you say opportunities do come along and always do, its about having that flexible, adaptable mindset

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I guess the new set of structural problems that have developed since the 80s will now have to be addressed in the next decade or so. Agree with what you say opportunities do come along and always do, its about having that flexible, adaptable mindset

Absolutely.South East will be the new North East.

 

edit to add:worth noting spy's long time warnings about financial jobs in places like Reading and how the mid level jobs have dissappeared.In the City technology has killed a lot of the middle men jobs like stock broking.Lot less players now,much less well paid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely.South East will be the new North East.

 

edit to add:worth noting spy's long time warnings about financial jobs in places like Reading and how the mid level jobs have dissappeared.In the City technology has killed a lot of the middle men jobs like stock broking.Lot less players now,much less well paid.

Agree with the upcoming decline in the South East the jobs are going at a fair pace in financial services. I can't see which area of the UK would thrive in the next cycle as the South declines, the North has a lot of public sector keeping a lot of towns going and I guess the public sector will have to be trimmed back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely.South East will be the new North East.

 

edit to add:worth noting spy's long time warnings about financial jobs in places like Reading and how the mid level jobs have dissappeared.In the City technology has killed a lot of the middle men jobs like stock broking.Lot less players now,much less well paid.

I grew up in the 70s n 80s, on the yorkshire coast.

As a kid, we used to stay with an Aunty whod moved to Wakefield with the miner shed met in Scabby one summer.

This was ~mid 70s.

At that point, Wakefield had the highest concentration of high earners in the UK.

Strong unions, new tech had changed mining from a dangerous shit job to one that was not too bad but still mucky and very very very very well paid - 38h + 10h OT and my Uncle was well in the top 10% of earners.

Uncle got laid off from active mining in 78ish (winter of discontent) but moved into being a overseer/site watcher i.e. he sat around top of the pit, making sure it did not cave in.

Aunty is still drawing his pension, 20 odd years after he died.

As I got older, I also aware that lots of  Dads worked up the up in boro - ICI or BS, whom between them employed several 10k. There used to be fleet of site buses that went up, taking up several 100 from our local town. IIRC bus travel was thrown in. Youd turn up at 7.30, get the bus, snooze for 40m journey, work your shift, snooze 40m back, have your tea. Well paid, pension, no travel hassle.

Come 1981 - bang, wave after wave of redundo which carried on for ~10 years. Various reasons, none really down to 'Thatcher!'

My point is that large structural change are not new.

The only new thing appears to these changes affecting the middle class/white collary types.

Tough really.

And Ill finish by saying the finsec dominated London/Se more than ICI n BS did boro.

Prime-Minister-Margaret-Thatcher-wildern

 

Id draw parallel to Wakefield/mining   and London/Se/finsec. Same sort of monobusiness/dominance.

Wakefield  is a total  jobless benefit shithole now.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, spygirl said:

I grew up in the 70s n 80s, on the yorkshire coast.

As a kid, we used to stay with an Aunty whod moved to Wakefield with the miner shed met in Scabby one summer.

This was ~mid 70s.

At that point, Wakefield had the highest concentration of high earners in the UK.

Strong unions, new tech had changed mining from a dangerous shit job to one that was not too bad but still mucky and very very very very well paid - 38h + 10h OT and my Uncle was well in the top 10% of earners.

Uncle got laid off from active mining in 78ish (winter of discontent) but moved into being a overseer/site watcher i.e. he sat around top of the pit, making sure it did not cave in.

Aunty is still drawing his pension, 20 odd years after he died.

As I got older, I also aware that lots of  Dads worked up the up in boro - ICI or BS, whom between them employed several 10k. There used to be fleet of site buses that went up, taking up several 100 from our local town. IIRC bus travel was thrown in. Youd turn up at 7.30, get the bus, snooze for 40m journey, work your shift, snooze 40m back, have your tea. Well paid, pension, no travel hassle.

Come 1981 - bang, wave after wave of redundo which carried on for ~10 years. Various reasons, none really down to 'Thatcher!'

My point is that large structural change are not new.

The only new thing appears to these changes affecting the middle class/white collary types.

Tough really.

And Ill finish by saying the finsec dominated London/Se more than ICI n BS did boro.

Prime-Minister-Margaret-Thatcher-wildern

 

Id draw parallel to Wakefield/mining   and London/Se/finsec. Same sort of monobusiness/dominance.

Wakefield  is a total  jobless benefit shithole now.

 

 

 

 

Although in the next cycle there will be opportunities I think it will be in pockets, I doubt we'll get the huge finsec wave of jobs that provided literally 100s of thousands of well paid jobs down south. As for the Wakefields of the North will they continue on as jobless benefit shitholes, I cannot see them being revitalised

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Although in the next cycle there will be opportunities I think it will be in pockets, I doubt we'll get the huge finsec wave of jobs that provided literally 100s of thousands of well paid jobs down south. As for the Wakefields of the North will they continue on as jobless benefit shitholes, I cannot see them being revitalised

Sort of.

Wakefield problems are more down to the Welfare state rather than economic.

BNut i see large number f Southern towns going rapidly the same way - Reading, Bracknell. Large parts are already there.

Large parts of Exssex n Kent. Hampshire.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
5 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Agree with the upcoming decline in the South East the jobs are going at a fair pace in financial services. I can't see which area of the UK would thrive in the next cycle as the South declines, the North has a lot of public sector keeping a lot of towns going and I guess the public sector will have to be trimmed back.

Trim back the public sector?

As if council tax isn't bad enough, suggesting the council also apply a local income tax:

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/11/11/new-council-income-tax-is-best-way-to-plug-multi-billion-pound-gap-in-social-care-says-ifs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Please don't laugh but most of my SCS records are pen on paper. I work a lot of paper. Rough notes with portfolio holdings. When one of the kids gets to my study and scrwawls al over my papers I keep saying I need to start working on a PC but using paper helps me organise my thoughts. Our 3 year old doesnt care and anythign thats needed for setting up his doctors surgeries and shops get used and destroyed .....It takes me a lot of time to upload them onto the thread. I may have time wed but I may not.

Thanks SP.  Totally know what you mean about using pen and paper in terms of organising thoughts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom
22 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Only the So-Called BBC can come up with shit that boils my blood this much:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50306994

I ask myself what the point of this article is.

Great idea. Dont get to know your partner properly before you sign up for a mass of debt together. 

Good chance they will move in together and get annoyed by little things. Need to spend a bit of time enjoying each other's company without having the feeling that it has to work. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely.South East will be the new North East.

Christ, I will have to get used to having gravy on my chips instead of salt n vinegar then....that and drinking my beer from a proper glass rather than one that a lady would use! :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i've been very busy through work so haven't had time to post on here as of late. Portfolios doing pretty well, but I did sell off most my HOC at the top, I'm now still averaging in on Fresnillo to get some allocation back.

I've also taken the plunge and got the g3 pizza oven that was recommended on here. I got it for just over £60 delivered after being notified via this link, although I got it via the Italian Amazon warehouse. I shall experiment with the 00 pizza flour mentioned on here and report my findings.

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/the-g3-ferrari-pizza-oven-3328500

I've also become a Co-op bargain professional on my way home from work. I have since given up on Iceland since they introduced their 'up to half price' stickers. It's now a  face-off at 7pm in my local Co-op store against all manner of people. One lady in particular likes to fill her basket with the best stuff at 6:45pm and 'wander' round the store and then mob the man at 7pm for final reduction. I also lost out when another Eastern European man took around 10 steaks when I naively thought I'd come back at 7:10pm and they'd be one or so left.

Well I've sussed it now. :) been getting decent bargains for the freezer. Typically I'll always get one of those roast-in-bag chickens at some point at the end of the week for just over £1.50. I tend to cook this that night for weekend (with some reduced potatoes and veg) for Sunday dinner. Then odds and ends of the veggies I store in the freezer and whack these with the chicken bones in the slow cooker with a bit of apple cider vinegar (leaches out the collagen and good stuff from the bones). Put the broth in the fridge and remove the top layer of fat (save for roast potatoes) and the broth jelly is good for all sorts. Either freeze or add in other meals.

I tend to use mine for either stews or to make a stir fry ramen that would rival Wagamamas. Bit of garlic/ginger paste (in Asian supermarkets) fried in oil, add left over chicken and good quality soy sauce (I get mine like Pearl River Bridge in large bottles from cash and carries) with chillies then add some 'stir fry veg' (also gets marked down a lot in co-op so pick up a load at 20p and freeze) then when it's cooked down but still crisp add the chicken broth and boil off. Meanwhile boil and add the egg noodles (fresh or dried) and mix in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...