Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

For what it's worth, this Black Friday Weekend at a certain online fashion retailer absolutely smahed it, with revenue increasing a whooping 35% YoY. For the financial year so far they're 24% up YoY. Obv that's only revenue and there's a long way for it to trickle down to the bottom line, especially with all that aggresive promotional activity cutting into margins, but the numbers are surprisingly robust nevertheless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Very interesting.I think bonds will lose 70%+,but they wont start to see the losses for a year yet.Its highly likely in the first main stages of a debt deflation that bonds increase.I also set most of my buy orders for stocks at PE ratios below 10.I expect we will see mid single digit and already have in many sectors in the UK market.The question is when the big cap stocks that have driven the index up crack.I think its really crucial to be avoiding high PE areas.Its very likely the next cycle will favour asset heavy areas rather than growth as capital will need to be raised from equity instead of debt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

First it cost to lend money to the German government. Now it costs to lend to the German banks. They pay you to take out a mortgage in Denmark. 

Financial madness 

Its exactly what we expect on this thread,and exactly what we are planning for the last 2 years.Deflation leads to this and we are in a debt deflation.All the seeds are being set for an inflationary recovery cycle.They keep printing expecting some inflation,but the liquidity is below the level needed to stand still.The Fed are way behind as well.They will panic soon and open the floodgates and it will likely pile into bonds.Its that key moment where we get an inflection point.As that slowly reverses all that money will leave bonds and enter commodity stocks and real asset owning ones.We might see bonds keep doing well for another year yet,then snap the first 20% down in a few weeks,then a bear market where rates end up around double figures.

Im convinced equity and bond markets will go down ,and those 60/40 sure thing pensions will be smashed by inflation.Everyone has forgot there is another asset class.Its real assets,real commods,real industrial products.Hopefully we can get most of the oilies when oil goes below $40.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a setup for silver miners. Incredibly bullish. The spread against gold miners suggests a huge upside potential. We’re on the cusp of a multi-year breakout.

EK5JcJSUwAAnKdz.jpg
1:37 PM - 3 Dec 2019

Source for the above is Otavio Costa on twitter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Investors in a £2.5bn UK property fund have been blocked from withdrawing cash after “unusually high and sustained outflows.”

M&G Investments (MNG.L) said on Wednesday afternoon it was halting withdrawals from its UK-focused Property Portfolio Fund with immediate affect.

The company said that “unusually high and sustained outflows” combined with “continued Brexit-related political uncertainty and ongoing structural shifts in the UK retail sector” have made it “difficult” to sell buildings it is invested fast enough to meet redemptions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Investors in a £2.5bn UK property fund have been blocked from withdrawing cash after “unusually high and sustained outflows.”

M&G Investments (MNG.L) said on Wednesday afternoon it was halting withdrawals from its UK-focused Property Portfolio Fund with immediate affect.

The company said that “unusually high and sustained outflows” combined with “continued Brexit-related political uncertainty and ongoing structural shifts in the UK retail sector” have made it “difficult” to sell buildings it is invested fast enough to meet redemptions.

Sounds big. Is this big? I hope it's big.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Loki said:

Sounds big. Is this big? I hope it's big.

Nah, £2.5bn is peanuts in the grand scheme of things, and they did the same thing in 2016.

Its the confidence thing though, second time this year that a fund has suspended withdrawals due to liquidity, and unsurprisingly its right after the UK retail sales plumbed new depths in the graph i posted up page.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Nah, £2.5bn is peanuts in the grand scheme of things, and they did the same thing in 2016.

Its the confidence thing though, second time this year that a fund has suspended withdrawals due to liquidity, and unsurprisingly its right after the UK retail sales plumbed new depths in the graph i posted up page.

I thought as much, but yes a step in the right direction

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, janch said:

What a setup for silver miners. Incredibly bullish. The spread against gold miners suggests a huge upside potential. We’re on the cusp of a multi-year breakout.

EK5JcJSUwAAnKdz.jpg
1:37 PM - 3 Dec 2019

Source for the above is Otavio Costa on twitter

Shame we can't buy SIL in the uk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Nah, £2.5bn is peanuts in the grand scheme of things, and they did the same thing in 2016.

Its the confidence thing though, second time this year that a fund has suspended withdrawals due to liquidity, and unsurprisingly its right after the UK retail sales plumbed new depths in the graph i posted up page.

I can never understand why people buy these instead of a REIT.If your a long term holder you should be buying when sentiment is terrible and the shares are trading well inside NAV.Then wait.The problem with these type of funds is investors want out and the fund has to sell assets to pay.Given the reason people want out is terrible sentiment then they get terrible prices for the assets.Its like turkeys voting for xmas.Im a contrarian and iv seen lots of examples where these sort of things are a great indicator that there might be some bargains in the sector.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Loki said:

@DurhamBorn do you think it's worth buying bonds to get that last hurrah or is the timing too risky?

U.S. bonds i assume?

I still own some,but not many now.Reason being im not sure on currency.I think sterling could rally up to $1.38.There is probably another 10% in bonds,maybe a little more,but im not chasing that.Im on my road map where im slowly buying into stocks i want,and some that are still slightly above what i want to start laddering at.Others are well into the buying process,a few have hit bottom ladders,some bouncing,some bumping along.Price points determine what and when i buy now.Nothing else gets in the way.Iv a little more work to do on the big oil companies and the telcos as id like to add a few more companies.I think the telcos are undervalued on a structural level before they suffered the big falls.Likely they will get a few more smacks yet,but fancy them to be big winners in the cycle ahead.Im still seeing oil below $40,maybe even a crazy spike below $20 for a very short period so iv only just added a very small amount of the oil companies so far.Im hoping to get them cheaper.Tricky as they might run on a weaker dollar but liquidity looks like its falling faster than CB action so im expecting another jolt down.Tough call though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

Are you sure...? I can see it in my IG ISA account...

That might be the individual stock for Silvercrest (which I think is a wee rocket about to go off- DYOR etc) rather than the US ETF basket of miners SIL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eventually Right

Slightly tangential, late night post:

If you believe (as I do) in some of the central tenets of this, and the other threads, of what’s coming fairly imminently:

ie a global bust; massive government action on fiscal policy (MMT/huge unfunded government spending etc) because globally, rates are effectively at zero, so monetary policies alone won’t reverse the crash; this eventually leading to much higher inflation; and an even worse situation in 10 years or so, when the public completely lose faith in the centrals banks’ ability to smooth/save the global economy.

And, you’ve tried to express this to friends/family/colleagues/people you care about etc, but you don’t feel you’ve got through to them, because either:

a) they’re disinterested in economics/politics, and don’t think it really affects them 

b) they’re unwilling to have their beliefs on certain things (house prices always go up, for example) challenged, and believe the next 10 yrs won’t be too different to the last 10, and so don’t want to listen.

c) they’re unable to understand the arguments, because it requires a decent effort to learn about ZIRP/bond bulls/reserve currencies/fiscal vs monetary policies etc, and most people don’t have the time/inclination.

Does that lead you to a state of sort of “glum anxiety”? Because it sometimes feels to me, as if I (and plenty of others, here and on twitter for example) can see what’s coming, but all those friends/family/colleagues etc have no idea about the freight train that’s about to be driven through their future financial plans/dreams.

And you can’t really do that much about it-we could all be wrong, and the global economy totters along for another 10-15 years. I don’t believe that, but it’s not impossible, so you can’t get too forthright in dissuading people not to “stretch themselves to buy that bigger house” or persuading them to invest their savings in physical gold/silver or miners.

So you watch the global economic data get gradually bleaker, relatively happy with how you’ve set your savings/investments up to survive/benefit from a crash, but at the same time, feeling helpless about all those people who have no idea what’s about to hit...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...