Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely.More HTB for those BDEV/PSN/BKG shareholders to gorge on.

Got mullered on some shorts this morning all property related.Stops triggered.

Must say though,pleased with sterling strength for buying more oilies/gold/copper plays.

Worth noting Freeport has been running up last week or two,.

Edit to add:Although to be fair,the short losses more than offset by the uplift in CNA.Every cloud

B*gger, I had started accumulating Bellway and Crest but had far to go.  Too slow!  Note Bellway up 40% since its low and Crest 30%.  Classic contrarian, even against here, for now!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I'll never forget that banker lady they got on channel 4 news to tell us sterling was only going lower from $1.23 a few months back.Pretty much nailed the bottom.

Laughable isn't it?  And they pay these people.  Presumably most firms make money via more cosy sorts of ways rather than the hard way we do. 

[BearyBear]

Well... https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-property-poised-for-a-boost-on-boris-johnsons-conservative-election-win-074738924.html

 

The UK housing market can expect a surge in sales and rental activity across Britain after Boris Johnson’s Conservative party secured a resounding victory in the general election, property experts say.

“For three years the property market has been gripped by political uncertainty and deadlock but now it can finally move on. There’s every chance we are now at the beginning of a market cycle that may not peak until 2027 or beyond, with growth of around 4% a year.

[Loki]

Boris or no Boris I don't think people have any more money to spend on houses

If the government launches more schemes rather than infrastructure investment then we were wrong i guess

Unless a massive true social housing scheme falls under that

[Harley]

38 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Well... https://uk.yahoo.com/news/uk-property-poised-for-a-boost-on-boris-johnsons-conservative-election-win-074738924.html

 

The UK housing market can expect a surge in sales and rental activity across Britain after Boris Johnson’s Conservative party secured a resounding victory in the general election, property experts say.

“For three years the property market has been gripped by political uncertainty and deadlock but now it can finally move on. There’s every chance we are now at the beginning of a market cycle that may not peak until 2027 or beyond, with growth of around 4% a year.

Oh if only life was that simple...... we wouldn't make any money.  "Gripped by political uncertainty" my dark end!  Is the source a ramper?  Very quick, these guys are well practiced.

[Harley]

42 minutes ago, Loki said:

Boris or no Boris I don't think people have any more money to spend on houses

If the government launches more schemes rather than infrastructure investment then we were wrong i guess

Unless a massive true social housing scheme falls under that

Indeed.  Hopefully incentives for pension funds, etc to build quality rentals and these financial big boys will eff over the housebuilders unlike Mr and Mrs Aspirational-Pricetaker who have been unable to do.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

@DurhamBorn or anyone else with  a bit of experuence of DXY.Is it starting to weaken?

Think so.  My monthly technicals all pointing down after topping in September.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

....I'll also probably top up some FTSE trackers....

Going to have to earn my money today on this one!  Complex chart pattern. 

Was on a downtrend until August/September, running a series of lower and lower parallel downward support and resistance trend lines.  We now have a change of pattern.  It may have broken recently out of a triangle so need to check and determine if this is bullish or bearish.

Chart might follow if time allows.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 09/12/2019 at 19:18, Cattle Prod said:

I bought some Tullow today, my first tranche. They were clearly overvalued relative to their peers, so didnt touch till now, but now I think they are good value (pe of ~4?!) and in line with the other uk midcaps. A small tranche, less than 1% of liquid net worth, because I dont know they wont go bust. But their fields should be good for 70kbpd/150m fcf.

What I don't understand is guys on message boards who had 20-50% of their net worth in a single stock! Guys lost 150k+ today - absolutely insane. Why??

There was also a lesson in liquidity today, it was a buyers market. I got an order filled below quoted prices, I'd say institutional investors had to dump at any price. I do NOT want to ever be on the illiquid sell side ...

@Cattle ProdGREAT timing - they are UP todat 14% to nearly 70p! I should off followed ya lead as in my eyes ya the OIL GURU here...

2 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

SSE, CNA, BT all on the up hard this morning.

 

1 hour ago, CVG said:

Stagecoach and Goahead Group both up 11% a the mo

HOW many wishing here they FIILED their boots with CNA in the last few weeks when they were hovvering around 64/69p?! ...87p right now!

FFS...even RM are up 6% today to £2.46 ...AND yet ONLY last week some nitwits were selling HUGE holdings @ 1.92 bet they'll be crying in their beer tonight!

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Morning!  Literally, the storm is over and the sun is out, although a bit blustery so maybe best for me not to put all my sails out!

YES, lovely overcast heer with a bit of SUN in the Cotsworlds, i've just done some washing, all by HAND you know, as havn't found a decent 2nd-hand washing-machine on gumtree! ...maybe i should sell my Sibanye Gold and use the profit to buy a new washing-machine?...NA that would be criminal...!

 

[VeryMeanReversion]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

For those who plan to retire and give the Government nothing in tax you can earn upto £27.5k tax free (£12.5k PA, £2k divis, £12k CGT, £1k savings interest) PLUS anything in an ISA.

For a couple, double everything. With a big enough ISA, you can end up with £100K+ joint income with no income tax or NI. It shows what a trap PAYE has become in comparison.

I look after my Mums ISAs. As a pensioner, she has a £50K+ total income but still complains about paying £2K income tax (and no NI).

Don't forget the rent-a-room allowance (£7500).  With an annexe and a family member living it in, this can potentially be doubled.

I've had my best ever day for my SIPP, up nearly £15K.  The utilities have done really well.

Its now less than five years before I can get my hands on it so it should be safe from Labour now.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Think iv got the biggest increase in my portfolio iv ever had (iv just got up and going through them).Buying the UK cyclicals over the last 6 months has proved the right call.Iv just sold a few bottom ladders that were up 35% including divis like Royal Mail (kept 75% of them).Looking at the increases looks like mynroad map was/is right and the logjam has been removed as expected

Iv one week to go working then il spend my full time on investing and positioning.Dollar and oil should continue down once the dust settles and a window open up to get into the big oil companies.

Hopefully your all well up today.

[DurhamBorn]

14 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep, I remember the screeching about parity, and I bought then (sold too soon though). Think I'm beginning to understand markets! Thanks for your comments around that time, helped me hold fast on my FTSE stocks 

Your input is invaluable to this thread Cattle Prod so thankyou yourself.

My work and training over the years has been to ignore the noise,let the numbers speak,and cross market the work.The main weapon we have over almost everyone else is they dont understand the leads and lags to liquidity and everything else.Remember as well the seats the Tories have just won for the first time.The public have voted for reflation,and they will get it.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Going to have to earn my money today on this one!  Complex chart pattern. 

Was on a downtrend until August/September, running a series of lower and lower parallel downward support and resistance trend lines.  We now have a change of pattern.  It may have broken recently out of a triangle so need to check and determine if this is bullish or bearish.

Chart might follow if time allows.

Iv got 88 on the dollar,shorter term target 94.5,but i have only been running liquidity and sentiment filters,no cross market work.Il be doing full work on it after xmas.I see oil down still though so im not sure on the interaction on the two yet as havent done the work.

 

[janch]

1 hour ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

I've had my best ever day for my SIPP, up nearly £15K.  The utilities have done really well.

 

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Think iv got the biggest increase in my portfolio iv ever had

Yes a very pleasant surprise here too although nowhere near the amounts you guys have.  Everything was a bit gloomy for the past few weeks but I was hanging on in there and it's paid off so a big thankyou to DB.  Let's hope the gains are maintained.

Pity I sold my Sibanye a little while back though Silly me.  I still have some other miners though (only small amounts) and am expecting some of them to come up trumps.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got 88 on the dollar,shorter term target 94.5,but i have only been running liquidity and sentiment filters,no cross market work.Il be doing full work on it after xmas.I see oil down still though so im not sure on the interaction on the two yet as havent done the work.

I was referencing the FTSE (easily done given my flood of posts!).

My weekly chart, possible madness.....

A rewrite:  Bunched a bit to show the important historic support levels.  One interpretation of several: a broadening wedge/megaphone (mauve) from Mar '17 until Dec '18, working down and up a series of lower parallel support lines.  May be in a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern (orange) since at least Aug '18.  But would any bull move just be a New Year Brexit relief rally or something with legs given the relative under-performance of the FTSE to date?  Or I'm mad!

[Hardhat]

I'm still not up on CNA or VOD. Must have timed that one really badly. Down on the goldies too, although I did sell some.

Kicking myself feeling like I've missed a chance to buy more utilities/ telecoms and RM.

[DurhamBorn]

 

1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

I'm still not up on CNA or VOD. Must have timed that one really badly. Down on the goldies too, although I did sell some.

Kicking myself feeling like I've missed a chance to buy more utilities/ telecoms and RM.

Always use ladders Hardhat,it takes the emotion out of things.Im well down on CNA over £5k,but its only 1 of dozens of stocks.HMY for instance made me 4x that amount.RM im only actually level on now,not up,but selling the bottom ladder means i have a much lower price now and had some good divis..Ladders got me the likes of SSE at £10.30.

Telecoms should provide entry points over the next year and remember there are several targets abroad that sterling going up makes cheaper.Its a sector i intend to focus on early next year and put forward a way to play the sector above and beyond VOD and BT.

Oil should/might offer better entry points yet as well.Remember as well the debt deflation hasnt gone away.It needs to work through before any reflation gets really going.

 

[janch]

20 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

I'm still not up on CNA or VOD. Must have timed that one really badly. Down on the goldies too, although I did sell some.

Kicking myself feeling like I've missed a chance to buy more utilities/ telecoms and RM.

Nor am I up on CNA or VOD plus Royal Mail and some others but overall my portfolio is now in positive territory whereas it was languishing before.  I would ladder in if I had enough to play with but instead I'm holding what I've got and will re-invest the divis as they are paid and buy into the telcoms/transports etc as funds allow. 

Considering I'm new to this game and I've now realised I'm not really a trader type of person I'm happy to be more of a Warren Buffet type (buy and hold).  Using DB's analysis of the type of stocks to buy to suit the economy we're in means it's not just stabbing in the dark with stock selection.

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, janch said:

Nor am I up on CNA or VOD plus Royal Mail and some others but overall my portfolio is now in positive territory whereas it was languishing before.  I would ladder in if I had enough to play with but instead I'm holding what I've got and will re-invest the divis as they are paid and buy into the telcoms/transports etc as funds allow. 

Considering I'm new to this game and I've now realised I'm not really a trader type of person I'm happy to be more of a Warren Buffet type (buy and hold).  Using DB's analysis of the type of stocks to buy to suit the economy we're in means it's not just stabbing in the dark with stock selection.

Exactly janch.Its a journey investing and even very small amounts can make a big difference to life.A family member i invest for has a low paid job.They were left £16k a few years ago and they didnt want it to grow,they wanted some income off it.Iv now got them a portfolio of 14 stocks and from the original £16k they are getting £1.3k in divis a year and the £16k is worth £24k.They take half the dividend income in summer half at xmas and it makes a big difference to them.

Iv always thought even if someone can build up a portfolio that delivers £2k a year in income thats still a nice thing to have.It would pay for a car for instance.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

A rewrite:  Bunched a bit to show the important historic support levels.  One interpretation of several: a broadening wedge/megaphone (mauve) from Mar '17 until Dec '18, working down and up a series of lower parallel support lines.  May be in a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern (orange) since at least Aug '18.  But would any bull move just be a New Year Brexit relief rally or something with legs given the relative under-performance of the FTSE to date?  Or I'm mad!

"May be in a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern (orange) since at least Aug '19".

Also interesting how the EFT tracker and actual FTSE chart patterns differ!  The FTSE trackers (e.g. VUKE) fell much harder in October 2019 (over 2% difference) to give a downward channel rather than a symmetrical triangle.  Indeed quite a few differences at the peaks and troughs between the two, even more so recently.  Stock mix variance?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, janch said:

I've now realised I'm not really a trader type of person I'm happy to be more of a Warren Buffet type (buy and hold)

You can be a bit of both.  The importance is to see them as complementary not an either/or.  Investing for income say, versus trading are two different things.  I hold buckets of capital (even separate accounts) for each and never mix the two up.  I have my FTSE income portfolios largely good to go and will just let them run and maybe re-balance annually.  That frees me up for trading, a different game.  But even then my time horizon is weeks, not adrenaline fueled minutes.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

I'm still not up on CNA or VOD. Must have timed that one really badly. Down on the goldies too, although I did sell some.

Kicking myself feeling like I've missed a chance to buy more utilities/ telecoms and RM.

Up 4% on CNA and 150%(?) on VOD to date.  At the extremes, down 22% on one (IMB) and up 27% on another (WMH).  Overall up 4% on one recent account, 13% on another slightly longer.  All ex-Div but includes corporate actions such as VOD return of cash, etc.  All FTSE income stocks.  Mostly bought in the last year or two (at the longest) on intermediate lows (except VOD).  Seemingly, the longer they run, the better they do.  Those down are mostly when I thought I knew better!  These are income portfolios with captured (ex ULVR) 5+% yields so not really bothered about gains other than breaking even overall.  Every dog will have it's day and vice versa so sometimes sitting on hands earns more!  I generally just sit on the riverbank each and every week and wait for the healthy looking things to pass by into my net.  Boring but it will help pay the bills.

[MvR]

4 hours ago, Hardhat said:

I'm still not up on CNA or VOD. Must have timed that one really badly. Down on the goldies too, although I did sell some.

Kicking myself feeling like I've missed a chance to buy more utilities/ telecoms and RM.

Don't kick yourself.  I hopped out of all my utilities / telecoms / reflation stocks too a few weeks ago to go back to cash.. leaving only some miners and miner ETFs, so today has been basically flat/slightly down for me across my various accounts and trading strategies.

The markets always throw up new opportunities. It's like Tube trains, another will be along very shortly. The only "last chances" in the market relate to your own capital, and overcommitting and losing too much of your invested capital in a crash.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, MvR said:

 

The markets always throw up new opportunities. It's like Tube trains, another will be along very shortly. The only "last chances" in the market relate to your own capital, and overcommitting and losing too much of your invested capital in a crash.

This should be printed out and kept on the desks of all us!

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Indeed.  Hopefully incentives for pension funds, etc to build quality rentals and these financial big boys will eff over the housebuilders unlike Mr and Mrs Aspirational-Pricetaker who have been unable to do.

Housebuilders filled 4 out of the 5 FTSE shares with double digit daily gains.