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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Just an interesting stat on pension provision.The fact this is the people 55 to 64 is quite incredible.I would guess many in that age group in the private sector would still have DB pensions,even if deferred.How many of these think their home is their pension?.

"The figures were drawn from data published by the Office for National Statistics this month, representing pension wealth in the UK from the period of April 2016 to March 2018. 

Equiniti said this data also showed a "stark difference" between public and private sector savings, with those aged 55 to 64 in the public sector having a median workplace pension savings of £181,100 and those in the private sector having pots roughly seven times smaller at just £27,000."

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4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

... public sector having a median workplace pension savings of £181,100 and those in the private sector having pots roughly seven times smaller at just £27,000."

That is an amazing stat, just shows you how many in the private sector have opted out and like you say have put faith in their home and state pension looking after them.

The workforce is going to look a lot different in the not so distant future.

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Chewing Grass
5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Equiniti said this data also showed a "stark difference" between public and private sector savings, with those aged 55 to 64 in the public sector having a median workplace pension savings of £181,100 and those in the private sector having pots roughly seven times smaller at just £27,000."

That would very roughly equate to someone on 25% above minimum wage putting the bare minimum (I will assume 2.5% employee plus 2.5% employer) into a pot for 25 years.

So that will be a £7K lump sum and a £525 per year pension to enjoy.

The next stage will be mass confiscation and redistribution of pension scheme funds to bribe the feckless class of voter.

Noticed today a legal company touting on the radio for anyone sold an interest only mortgage up to 2013 to claim compo.

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8 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Well i tried to buy £500 of SCIF from my kid and £1500 for myself ... and i cant due to KID.

Then i tried to buy my kid £400 of Fission Uranium as it was at 26 and now need a NR-301 tax form.

Whoever invented "government" needs stringing up.

The EU are protecting you from yourself and say its ok to buy Italian bonds instead.You couldnt make it up.

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32 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I can buy a 2.25 x leveraged VIX product in my ISA, but not energy ETFs. In my SIPP I can by risky miners like SolGold, but not bullion. I need a f**cking 'financial adviser' to authorise that (or any other gate 4 products).

Simply maddening.

It really is crazy.You cant buy a fund of US treasuries etc.I used to use several ETFs on a regular basis and its really affected me since i cant buy them anymore.Makes you think the EU doesnt want people holding dollar assets.Wonder why.

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Democorruptcy
21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What i have noticed already though is that by being able to retire early really helps my family hold and create wealth.My dad gets me to do his jobs like the garden/DIY etc and removes any need for care.My kids have a free babysitter etc so they can work and continue to pay their mortgages off.They will all be mortgage free by 33 years old on nice houses.I have given them no money towards that.The greatest wealth creating tool of all time is a family using compounding.

Of course a cynic could say some of the free baby sitting is grandparents "working" for nothing to help builders/banks make more profits? It enables 2 incomes to be used to push house prices up. If it were single income mortgages, houses would be cheaper. I have a couple of friends being worn down by free babysitting for 10 hours a day so their daughter can buy using Help to Buy. They enjoy a bit of babysitting but it's become too much. The real winner in the arrangment is the boss of Persimmon.

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14 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

The next stage will be mass confiscation and redistribution of pension scheme funds to bribe the feckless class of voter.

That seems very likely, I'm afraid. Happened to my pension pot in Poland, will happen to my pension pot in UK. Nowhere to hide.

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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Of course a cynic could say some of the free baby sitting is grandparents "working" for nothing to help builders/banks make more profits? It enables 2 incomes to be used to push house prices up. If it were single income mortgages, houses would be cheaper. I have a couple of friends being worn down by free babysitting for 10 hours a day so their daughter can buy using Help to Buy. They enjoy a bit of babysitting but it's become too much. The real winner in the arrangment is the boss of Persimmon.

True,in my case though my kids bought 2nd hand houses,put down £40k+ deposits they saved and paid £125k and £119k for two very nice semis.My oldest daughter (27) has a good career as a nurse,but will be going part time in around 5 years once the house is paid off.If my dad needs nursing care she would leave work tomorrow and we would divert some of his money to her.My kids and their partners are all aiming for part time work earning the tax allowance,debt free etc.We dont really have much of a problem with house prices as such in the north.We probably have a +£20k uplift due to lots of BTL at the lower end.As you can imagine no child of mine would ever be buying a HTB house,or a new house.The HTB estates near me are a joke really.You can buy far superior houses for a lot less in the same towns.I cant understand how parents can let their kids walk into those financial disasters.

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2 hours ago, kibuc said:
17 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

The next stage will be mass confiscation and redistribution of pension scheme funds to bribe the feckless class of voter.

That seems very likely, I'm afraid. Happened to my pension pot in Poland, will happen to my pension pot in UK. Nowhere to hide.

Pensions do look like low hanging fruit to a broke government rather than the smaller amounts in ISA's. I'm certainly considering accessing some of my private pensions to siphon off the 25% tax free and draw out under the 12.5K tax allowance into my stock and shares ISA. Sounds like a good plan DurhamBorn. Too much risk of government tinkering....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/10798785/True-cost-of-Labours-pension-tax-raid-and-others-since-Seventies.html

Gordon Brown? Remember his tax raid on pensions in '97, and Brown's bottom in selling UK gold in 99-2000. Do I trust any politician?

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Just remember guys, Lib, Lab, or Con, the beast must be fed and we're the feed.  The Budget is in two months time so the clock is ticking and other bells (FCA) could ring at any time.

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Just remember guys, Lib, Lab, or Con, the beast must be fed and we're the feed.  The Budget is in two months time so the clock is ticking and other bells (FCA) could ring at any time.

The good news is the Tories are less likely to go after things as badly as Labour.I think the real big one on pensions is the date you can access them.Its going up to 58 we think in 2028,but nothing has been published or legislated.They also havent said if there will be a cliff edge like last time (50 to 55) or a taper.They have said they want to keep it 10 years behind SPA but there is nothing to stop them changing that.The new LISA is 60 so its probably likely that will be the age at some point.I think the main way the government will tax pension wealth is through NI.They are putting the allowance up to £12.5k,but no mention of increasing the tax allowance.That says to me once the two are £12.5k they will simply merge income tax and NI.That way pensioners get whacked.

I think its probably best to try to keep pension income at £12.5k a year and get the rest through ISAs.I doubt they will change those,apart from maybe introducing a £1million lifetime allowance.

One thing is certain.The government have half the population on welfare or state income.They need to stop the people paying the tax retiring early.Their main weapon so far has been debt,mostly mortgage.Like you say the budget might give some ideas.

16 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Surely in this country they'll go for public sector pensions first.

I would hope so,but not certain.I could see them stopping you getting them early even with reductions.If you cant get them until 70 they lose a lot of their value (and cost).

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I'm betting on hoops before accessing drawdown income and/or capital like getting financial advice, needing alternative sources of income or some formula thereof, etc.  Hence my FCA, etc comment.

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1 hour ago, Tdog said:

Surely in this country they'll go for public sector pensions first.

I believe Corbyn's seasonal message only went out to our public "servants" and I don't see the Cons in much of a different light.  Who going on strike does a polo fear most (not "should" but "does")?  Unemptied bins or a lack of toys? 

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22 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm betting on hoops before accessing drawdown income and/or capital like getting financial advice, needing alternative sources of income or some formula thereof, etc.  Hence my FCA, etc comment.

Lets hope not Harley,that would be a nightmare for us on here.I think if they do anything they might give a 10 year warning.The problem with pensions is most people now dont have much,so hitting people who do at 55 wont even register much.The FSA are already pushing that pathways rubbish,but i think thats more aimed at stopping people sitting in cash.I will go into draw down the day im 55 if i can.Its shocking though the way they can mess with pensions.Lets hope the Tories have bigger issues like BTL.Getting the young signed up to mortgages is their main priority.I reckon NI on pension income above £12.5k will be the main hit.

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Bobthebuilder

I wish everyone the best at this time of year.

This thread has been awesome enjoyment over the last year, thank you.

Anecdotal. I am putting up my prices in the new year. All quotes i hear up £400 on my old rates, combi swap etc.Time to start pushing on what people need, not what people want.

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Merry Chrimbo All!

Nice surprise to see my SIPP / F&S account balance return positive tonight, let's see if it's still the case when the market manipulators return from their jollies ;)

Thank you to every contributor on the thread, really helped me get my shit together and prep so our family has a fighting chance when this economic cycle turns. All the best.

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1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I wish everyone the best at this time of year.

This thread has been awesome enjoyment over the last year, thank you.

........

Yup, cheers to you all but especially you for liking all my posts!

So everyone, financial New Year resolutions and must-dos?

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