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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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9 hours ago, Ellandback said:

10 Best Silver Mining Stocks For 2020

Summary: My favourite risk/reward silver mining stocks for 2020;  Low valuations versus their upside potential;  Quality properties with long-life mines;  Exceptional leverage to higher silver prices.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315151-10-best-silver-mining-stocks-for-2020

A Seeking Alpha post that's worth the 5 min read IMO - DYOR

Interesting List, although saying FRES and PAAS are overvalued and MAG/AG is cheap is the other way round by my calculations!

Aurcana looks a good bet for a decent high risk/high reward silver gamble.

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Regarding the NUS card, mine expired earlier last year.  Think I had it for around 3-4 years and since I'm a student of writing story books was able to reapply in the past (it's handily a course that I can work on indefinitely).

Anyway when I went to reapply it seems to have had some kind of face lift, no longer NUS extra but "totem" and there were two tiers one for older/ part time students that looked like I was only eligible for.  Couldn't find out if this card would work at the co-op or not, which is where I probably would see the greatest value.

Anyone here know what the deal is, happy to get for co-op alone but left of until this thread reminded me?

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sancho panza
13 hours ago, Ellandback said:

10 Best Silver Mining Stocks For 2020

Summary: My favourite risk/reward silver mining stocks for 2020;  Low valuations versus their upside potential;  Quality properties with long-life mines;  Exceptional leverage to higher silver prices.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315151-10-best-silver-mining-stocks-for-2020

A Seeking Alpha post that's worth the 5 min read IMO - DYOR

From the article- and it's a thought provoking one at that.Thanks for psoting.HAs given me a couple of leads many thanks.

'I excluded stocks that I consider pricey, such as Pan American Silver, SilverCrest Metals, Silvercorp Metals, Fresnillo Plc, Buenaventura Mining, New Pacific Metals, and Industrias Penoles.

I excluded the smaller producers, such as Impact Silver, Excellon Resources, and Santa Cruz Silver. All three of these could do well if silver prices trend higher. '

 

FRES,BVN and IPOAF all look good to me. @kibuc has backed Impact as well..

4 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Interesting List, although saying FRES and PAAS are overvalued and MAG/AG is cheap is the other way round by my calculations!

Aurcana looks a good bet for a decent high risk/high reward silver gamble.

Agreed on both points MP.FRES lookc cheap here.HOC looks super value-I'm long both,and HOC thanks to yor heads up.

We're looking to beef up our PM holdings with one last tranche and I was wondering how to deploy another 5% porfolio value to into PM miners.Must say adding a few HOC to our 1% position seems to be an option.The way they lay out the logic is compelling in the article.

Recently HOC touched £1.50 which was the May 2019 low.................still only £1.75 or so

I like Aurcana too,but aslo tempted to take a repunt on GPL and EXK,also some Bear Creek for the first time.Spray n pray...

Personally,I think silver is headed for some exciting times.Gold Silver ratio in the 30's or less.

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sancho panza
13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My silver miners for reference.

silver miners.jpg

In a sign of how mad the times are,I sold our FSM  at ta profit to balance the losses we took in Hecla .Then lo and behold the two I'd decided were duds(+Couer as well) ran up more than FSM.

Such is life.If anyhting it's instructive on how market perceptions bear little reality to the underlying stock.

Appreciate the heads up,I'm spending Sunday night sorting some PM potential purchases to run my slide rule over.

You may have a view,but value in the PMs is getting harder to find.

$1bn plus markjet cap

Osisko Gold Royalties?Newcrest?Hoc?Barrick not moved up muc?

 

Any other ideas?

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Bricks & Mortar
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Any other ideas?

I've been considering a punt on Mako Mining.  Highly speculative, their mine isn't even built yet, so not gonna be a large holding.  Might take profits on AG and Yamana to fund it.
I first got interested after hearing a podcast that followed on from a bit delivered by David Hunter and posted on his Twitter - Sounded good to me a couple of weeks ago, and been thinking about it since then.  They hope to start mining by end of February.  Part of my reasoning is bad news about actual mined grades is likely several months after that, and I'm betting on an imminent rise in PM prices and guesing I'll sell out before then.
Might move on this on Mon or Tues.

 

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15 hours ago, Tdog said:

How do you get a NUS card? If not a spotty arsed student?

You make up that you’re studying. They’re desperate for money. The only downside is that you are funding them and their crazy policies.

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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

You may have a view,but value in the PMs is getting harder to find.

$1bn plus markjet cap

Osisko Gold Royalties?Newcrest?Hoc?Barrick not moved up muc?

 LSE PM stocks are reasonable value, the problem is i already own a hefty chunk of them and there is a limited range to buy.  Tory Majority and Brexit finally being sorted took a lot of the wind out of their sails for the time being imo.  Some Aurcana and possibly some more Fresnillo only for me unless something else catches my eye.

Hopefully by April the crisis will be in full swing and some other sectors will become "PM undervalued"!, even more hopeful the chancellor gets rid of the KIID requirement and i can buy some Potash/Uranium/oil ETF's....

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sancho panza
53 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

 LSE PM stocks are reasonable value, the problem is i already own a hefty chunk of them and there is a limited range to buy.  Tory Majority and Brexit finally being sorted took a lot of the wind out of their sails for the time being imo.  Some Aurcana and possibly some more Fresnillo only for me unless something else catches my eye.

Hopefully by April the crisis will be in full swing and some other sectors will become "PM undervalued"!, even more hopeful the chancellor gets rid of the KIID requirement and i can buy some Potash/Uranium/oil ETF's....

We're at our imit on Fres/Newmont/Barrick/Kinross.Have space for some more HOC.

 

$1bn+ list where I see some value-got called away last night before I could do my full list

decl-long all

Oceana

Barrick

Osisko Go Ro

IAMGold

Newmont

Fres

Hoc

Newcrest

 

 

Smallies

EXK

Aurcana

Guyana-long

Impact

Pan African-long

Rio2-long

Superior-long

GPL

Bear Creek

Bonterra

Integra-long

 

DYOR natch

 

 

Very interested/grateful if anyone has any names for the smallies list to throw out as food for thought.We are long a few more but no longer value in my eyes.

 

EXK and GPL look like certain buys to me,Both beaten down of late.Maybe time for us to really lever into cheap silver plays??

 

 

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Toured Aldi, Morrys, Co-op and Tescos a few days ago for post Xmas bargains.  Naff all.  Think that was more due to them having naff all in the run up to Xmas!  Post Xmas, everywhere has been dead.  Not expecting good trading results. 

Funniest was Tescos who like the rest just had millions of mince pies (no choco log!) as pretty much their only Xmas fare.  There was this nice lady marking down literally hundreds (they were being stuffed everywhere) of mince pies with a best before date of the next day.  Go long mince pie makers!  Bagged a few half price German chocos in the Co-op though. 

Maybe last Xmas was actually poor and the retailers retrenched hard this year. 

Aldi seemed to have supply issues or just provided token quantities.  They ran out of sprouts before Xmas while Tesco's next door had them piled high at 19p a pack. 

Sainsbury's seemed to be well stocked though.  I was quite impressed overall and finally bought some shares for the yield (was going to earlier at a far lower price on a forecasted breakout but yet again listened to comments rather than trusted the data). 

Argos is also very impressive logistics wise (hub and spoke and all that) and now has an improved and better priced product offering.  Love their website (B&Q take note).  Just bought my telly painlessly with a 6% discount using Perkbox.  Staff seemed very nice in a couple of stores but saw some other things suggesting poor or eye-off-the-ball management.

Waitrose had some nice but expensive stocking fillers but were otherwise a bust.  Between a rock and a hard place.  Can't see the point as a mass retailer, especially when they retrench. 

Will be interesting to hear the proper after match commentary for all the retailers for Q4'19.

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9 minutes ago, Harley said:

Toured Aldi, Morrys, C-op and Tescos a few days ago for post Xmas bargains.  Naff all.  Think that was more due to them having naff all in the run up to Xmas!  Not expecting good trading results.  Funniest was Tescos who like the rest just had millions of mince pies (no choco log!) as pretty much their only Xmas fare.  There was this nice lady marking down literally hundreds (they were being stuffed everywhere) of mince pies with a best before date of the next day.  Go long mince pie makers!  Bagged a few half price German chocos in the Co-op though. 

Maybe last Xmas was actually poor and the retailers retrenched hard this year.  Aldi seemed to have supply issues or just provided token quantities.  They ran out of sprouts before Xmas while Tesco's next door had them piled high at 19p a pack.  Sainsbury's seemed to be well stocked though.  I was quite impressed overall and finally bought some shares for the yield (was going to earlier at a far lower price on a forecasted breakout but yet again listened to comments rather than trusted the data).  Argos is also very impressive logistics wise and has an improved and better priced product offering.  Bought my telly painlessly with a 6% discount using Perkbox. 

Will be interesting to hear the proper after match commentary for all the retailers for Q4'19.

I'm just glad those smug as f*** M&S food ads aren't on anymore, almost satirical in tone, I wonder how many were brainwashed by them to keep up with the Joneses? Been an odd Xmas, nothing anywhere as crazy as anticipated, I think I/we know what that means...

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Had some post apocalyptic nightmares last night about home ownership through the great depression of 2028. Led me to seriously start thinking whether it's best to buy something small I can pay off in 7 years, or buy what I'd like to consider as THE house (20-25 year mortgage), on the longest fix possible. Currently 10 years but there are already narrative signs that longer fixes will be made available when the housing market is on it's arse, especially with global central banks pumping insane QE into the system to try to climb out of the deflationary bust (this year?).

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6 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I'm just glad those smug as f*** M&S food ads aren't on anymore, almost satirical in tone, I wonder how many were brainwashed by them to keep up with the Joneses? Been an odd Xmas, nothing anywhere as crazy as anticipated, I think I/we know what that means...

I also love the old "if you have to ask the price you can't afford it" which now reads "if you have to ask the price don't bother 'cause it's a rip off"!  Things are now changing at a faster rate across the board.  Even Primark seem to be running out of road.

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3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I'm just glad those smug as f*** M&S food ads aren't on anymore, almost satirical in tone, I wonder how many were brainwashed by them to keep up with the Joneses? Been an odd Xmas, nothing anywhere as crazy as anticipated, I think I/we know what that means...

I used to go in the M&S simply food as its 200m away from my house (i have all the food shops within a mile) and get the reductions.Im talking 90p for something £5.I dont bother anymore because the food is terrible,its posh sounding ready meals mostly.I much prefer Tesco reductions.The higher quality food when reduced in Tesco is far better.I used to see a lot of career type people rushing into M&S about 6.30pm grabbing the ready meals and the sides etc.Probs £10+ for a crap laden with additives meal.I think they convince themselves that by getting M&S because they havent time to cook means they are getting good food,but those ready meal things are pretty bad for you.

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4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Had some post apocalyptic nightmares last night about home ownership through the great depression of 2028. Led me to seriously start thinking whether it's best to buy something small I can pay off in 7 years, or buy what I'd like to consider as THE house (20-25 year mortgage), on the longest fix possible. Currently 10 years but there are already narrative signs that longer fixes will be made available when the housing market is on it's arse, especially with global central banks pumping insane QE into the system to try to climb out of the deflationary bust (this year?).

3 bed semi up for sale opposite me Barnsey for £95k needs £15k of work but a bargain.Its lease though and only 68 years left,so need to buy that say £9k.Houses around here are lower in price than 2003/4 mostly.

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My one concern about Sainsbury's is if they are trading on air, expecting a takeover.  But if they have a viable commercial model providing a bit of an M&S sparkle in an otherwise retrenched market then happy days.

The Argos model is a jewel.  Excellent back end logistics.  Cruise their website with loads of reviews, etc and then go to store right then, later or the next day to collect.  Along with them being a RM, etc collection point.  Ok not pure on-line but maybe there's a place for that, especially over a normal store with iffy stock availability.  Soften the Soviet style collection process, think laterally, add a cafe, staff with nice looked after people, etc and they could could survive long after the rest as a "hub" retailer.

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9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I used to go in the M&S simply food as its 200m away from my house (i have all the food shops within a mile) and get the reductions.Im talking 90p for something £5.I dont bother anymore because the food is terrible,its posh sounding ready meals mostly.I much prefer Tesco reductions.The higher quality food when reduced in Tesco is far better.I used to see a lot of career type people rushing into M&S about 6.30pm grabbing the ready meals and the sides etc.Probs £10+ for a crap laden with additives meal.I think they convince themselves that by getting M&S because they havent time to cook means they are getting good food,but those ready meal things are pretty bad for you.

Was pretty funny when there was that pesto sauce recall recently, can't remember the brand but turns out they supplied Waitrose AND Lidl, says it all really!

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

My one concern about Sainsbury's is they are trading on air, expecting a takeover.  But if they have a viable commercial model providing s bit of an M&S sparkle in an otherwise retrenched market then happy days.

The Argos model is a jewel.  Excellent back end logistics.  Cruise their website with loads of reviews, etc and then go to store right then, later or the next day to collect.  Along with them being  RM, etc collection point.  Ok not pure on-line but maybe there's a place for that, especially over a normal store with iffy stock availability.  Soften the Soviet style collection process, think laterally, add a cafe, etc and they could could survive long after the rest as a "hub" retailer.

Argos is fantastic, used them quite a bit with the relocation, great prices, lots of choice, and like you say, so easy to order and collect. The placement of stores within Sainsburys, and with late opening hours, a stroke of genius.

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In a sign of how mad the times are,I sold our FSM  at ta profit to balance the losses we took in Hecla .Then lo and behold the two I'd decided were duds(+Couer as well) ran up more than FSM.

Such is life.If anyhting it's instructive on how market perceptions bear little reality to the underlying stock.

Appreciate the heads up,I'm spending Sunday night sorting some PM potential purchases to run my slide rule over.

You may have a view,but value in the PMs is getting harder to find.

$1bn plus markjet cap

Osisko Gold Royalties?Newcrest?Hoc?Barrick not moved up muc?

 

Any other ideas?

I havent looked at the sector at all lately as im working on asset allocation mostly now.Il be honest im not really looking for big capital gains in that im happy with my capital position,im more looking for companies that can increase their divis through the next cycle.That will see capital growth as well of course.

A quick look at a few indicators though says the sector is over bought and might correct and be a better buy in a few months.If so i will re-visit then.I wont sell my silver stocks though as i think we might see silver at $26 within 12 months,but there is a big risk is corrects in a big deflation so im in the most leverage plays,but lots of room to increase later again.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Was pretty funny when there was that pesto sauce recall recently, can't remember the brand but turns out they supplied Waitrose AND Lidl, says it all really!

That's standard operating procedure across the industry.  Maybe change the product mix to meet price points, maybe even not.  I therefore buy cheap and add to them myself (i.e. just use as a base), if I even bother buying them.  Take Pesto.  Went to an Italian cookery course and the chef laughed as he showed how easy it was to make awesome Pesto.

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30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Probs £10+ for a crap laden with additives meal

We call that stuff the 'ole "Gluppeter-Gluppeter" 'cause it gets squirted out of a gluppeter-gluppeter machine in a factory somewhere!  I made (well "assembled") my own trifle for the first time over Xmas.  Bought some of those sponge biscuits, soaked in sherry, added alternate layers of (powdered) custard/mascarpone/sherry mix and a defrosted berry mix.  Totally quick and totally awesome.  I get to choose the quality and style of the mix.  Those shop bought ones, any of them, are disgusting by comparison.  Oh and low sugar, fat, and (optionally) high alcohol!   

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36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I used to see a lot of career type people rushing into M&S about 6.30pm grabbing the ready meals and the sides etc.Probs £10+ for a crap laden with additives meal.I think they convince themselves that by getting M&S because they havent time to cook means they are getting good food,but those ready meal things are pretty bad for you.

I think this comment has long legs.  God help things if people ever understood the concept of "opportunity cost"!  That is, the true cost of earning some of these (in reality so-so) salaries.  Some folk I know are back on the job market and I'm hearing of some more mid to senior predominantly home based jobs with some very attractive companies oozing the smarts.  Jobs where you have to get out and about (good for you) but can easily do that from a home base of your choosing.  Good money too, fantastic if you take these opportunity costs into account.  It's a mark of a company that can do this because they know they have a genuinely motivated workforce versus those who do the talk but honestly know they can't let go 'cause it ain't real.  A very attractive proposition, although in the long run I would be concerned as it may increase the power of the corporates to "hire at the gate".      

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53 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

3 bed semi up for sale opposite me Barnsey for £95k needs £15k of work but a bargain.Its lease though and only 68 years left,so need to buy that say £9k.Houses around here are lower in price than 2003/4 mostly.

Unfortunately prices in the decent parts of the Midlands quite a bit more than that DB, but I have seen a couple on for £220k which have been sat on the market for a while and have potential.

One is a 1930s 3 bed semi previously bought in 2016 for just £155k (sold for £156k in 2006!) but I reckon they've spent £40k on it including a dining room extension, really wouldn't have do much at all, only thing might be a new roof in years to come (about £8k?). Downsides are that the houses on the street round the corner are a bit dodgy, neighbour's house looks scruffy, and a bit close to the railway (150m but shielded by a couple rows of houses).

The other is a 1980s build detached 3 bed, again really doesn't need much doing just a bit of updating, but this one is on the edge of a medium flood risk zone. Has never flooded apparently but seems that all these new build estates being built are shifting the path of flood water through the town and could be issues down the line. Also, next door is for sale, and a house behind it, which all seems suspect as not much else for sale in the area. Problem neighbours? This one has been sat on the market for so long a cheeky offer probably wouldn't go unnoticed. Finally, the EPC for it is the worst I've seen, seems it's cavity wall but pre-insulation, so that'd be something I'd have to get done, which in itself can present issues down the line. Other houses around it seem to have the insulation from new.

I'm only a couple months into the 6 month rental contract, but the house buying process can take many months right? Might start low balling offers out there just to gauge the market, but my instinct is still telling me it's too early. Prices aren't bonkers here, I reckon about 15% above inflation since the post crash bottom, so i'm looking for the same off really before jumping in. My worst case fear is that prices just stagnate until the powers that be juice things up again. 

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50 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I'm only a couple months into the 6 month rental contract, but the house buying process can take many months right? Might start low balling offers out there just to gauge the market, but my instinct is still telling me it's too early. Prices aren't bonkers here, I reckon about 15% above inflation since the post crash bottom, so i'm looking for the same off really before jumping in. My worst case fear is that prices just stagnate until the powers that be juice things up again. 

Good time to look at the moment before the spring season, next few weeks might pick up a willing seller who doesn't and has had the place on the market for a good while. No problem with rental contract for anything other than an exceptional sale with no chain or auction purchase, in fact highly desirable to have a good month or so overlap even for minimal works - much easier, quicker and cheaper getting stuff fixed / sorted /changed with an empty house.

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Bobthebuilder
35 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Good time to look at the moment before the spring season, next few weeks might pick up a willing seller who doesn't and has had the place on the market for a good while. No problem with rental contract for anything other than an exceptional sale with no chain or auction purchase, in fact highly desirable to have a good month or so overlap even for minimal works - much easier, quicker and cheaper getting stuff fixed / sorted /changed with an empty house.

I will 2nd that. You will always be able to get cheaper quotes for say heating, electrical works with a empty house with no furniture, carpets etc, trademans dream job.

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