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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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19 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Carneys leaving... He's doing but that evil little shit in the EU did... Forced the hand of his successor. 

Buy him a card and in doing so help us push up the card factory stock price 😃

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Democorruptcy

Are improvements in technology important? Thinking about Card Factory, Royal Mail, Telcos etc. Why buy a card and pay exorbitant postage charges to send it, when you can do a videocall over WhatsApp for free using what might be free wifi? 

On the same technology theme.... Argos have had a few mentions recently.... if it's so good why did Home Retail Group sell it? Could it be because going collecting things seems old hat when online are now doing next if not same day delivery? Time, parking charges, etc etc. 

On a side note... the last time I ordered from Argos I did the pick up from Sainsburys, I never got billed!

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While we're on Card Factory discussion... may I ask if anyone is invested / researched 'The Works' ? The connection is that the Dean Hoyle that founded Card Factory is now the chairman  NED at the works. They have had quite a hefty drop over the last few months and to me looks undervalued.
*Disclaimer... I own this stock as a very small percentage of my portfolio (2 out of 3 ladders bought).

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9 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Are improvements in technology important? Thinking about Card Factory, Royal Mail, Telcos etc. Why buy a card and pay exorbitant postage charges to send it, when you can do a videocall over WhatsApp for free using what might be free wifi? 

On the same technology theme.... Argos have had a few mentions recently.... if it's so good why did Home Retail Group sell it? Could it be because going collecting things seems old hat when online are now doing next if not same day delivery? Time, parking charges, etc etc. 

On a side note... the last time I ordered from Argos I did the pick up from Sainsburys, I never got billed!

My take on it is that although that may be the eventual outcome, sectors are sold off and become un-vogue way before when they still have value.

Its like the tobacco stocks (although they are obviously on a massive scale) although we all know the narrative has been negative for decades (no advertising, smoking bans, health risks etc) but developing countries with massive populations the demand is still growing. With massive revenues and manageable debt they can then muscle out any competition into whatever the sector evolves into i.e cannabis, vaping etc.

So yes the likes of Royal Mail and BT as they stand may not have a place in a future technological landscape. But because of the clout they have in their relevant sectors they will be the most likely candidates to survive an economic downturn and come out the other side. 

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I bought some Card Factory at 1.16 should waited till the end of the day lol

Reading comments from apparent investors in card factory in different areas online about the company seemed mostly negative from random accounts maybe shorting the stock, frustrated long time holders 

except here that why I like it here different views without slagging each other off

A few themes

nobody buys cards or sends cards no more

Well all the older generation of my family do because they don’t know how to use the internet properly even still sending cash in birthday cards lol

Youngsters don’t buy cards

Not so much cards well personalised cards they seem to but the two teenage girls in my family seem to have a need to buy a helium balloon for every friends birthday same with most of them actually to a point where I think the school are banning them, boys don’t so much did we ever but along with those silly balloons are gift bags, wrapping paper for the overprice shit they bought there friends

They don’t just sell cards 

It seems to be mostly women but my partner has been to and helped organise baby showers, hen nights, birthdays for all ages not expensive nights maybe at a friends, BBQ or local pub but they seem again to buy loads party crap from these type of stores Ballons, banners, cards, gift bags mostly crap that goes in the bin at the end of the night

DYOR and above was not my research lol just some thoughts on what I see people saying on others websites but to me looking though accounts etc... I thought the selling was a huge over reaction compared to other retailers

So I bought my first ladder only a small ladder but will probably buy more and we shall see in a year or so if them dividends hold up and the price recovers 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Are improvements in technology important? Thinking about Card Factory, Royal Mail, Telcos etc. Why buy a card and pay exorbitant postage charges to send it, when you can do a videocall over WhatsApp for free using what might be free wifi? 

On the same technology theme.... Argos have had a few mentions recently.... if it's so good why did Home Retail Group sell it? Could it be because going collecting things seems old hat when online are now doing next if not same day delivery? Time, parking charges, etc etc. 

On a side note... the last time I ordered from Argos I did the pick up from Sainsburys, I never got billed!

Collecting stuff is a pain in the ass but so is missing deliveries or waiting in all day and I work from home but hate when I can’t even leave for some lunch or to take the dog for a walk

Click and collect is generally free and you get to collect whilst popping out but then there’s parking which is a pain in the ass, but I do think these industrial type shopping areas are the future high street free parking, collect your item grab a coffee and leave

But also these lockers too, Amazon has them at a lot locations and I think shell petrol stations and Royal Mail have been testing a few areas with lockers for parcels where people can pick them up on them way back from work etc... having these at train stations too may be a good shout get of the train collect you shit and go home

One other thing whilst just a thought postage costs, Card Factory and personalised cards items which they seem to do, Maybe a option would be to collect form the store for free the likes of Moonpig etc... don’t have that option and postage only seems to get more expensive 

 

Again just random thoughts

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18 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Are improvements in technology important? Thinking about Card Factory, Royal Mail, Telcos etc. Why buy a card and pay exorbitant postage charges to send it, when you can do a videocall over WhatsApp for free using what might be free wifi? 

On the same technology theme.... Argos have had a few mentions recently.... if it's so good why did Home Retail Group sell it? Could it be because going collecting things seems old hat when online are now doing next if not same day delivery? Time, parking charges, etc etc. 

On a side note... the last time I ordered from Argos I did the pick up from Sainsburys, I never got billed!

Argos will deliver free but if you want a bespoke slot it’s 13 quid I can’t moan it’s a cooker 

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35 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Argos will deliver free but if you want a bespoke slot it’s 13 quid I can’t moan it’s a cooker 

But you don’t cook?

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On 10/01/2020 at 10:27, Harley said:

 I may check their financials but the last time they were surprisingly good (oddly, the same with a few other retailers)....

Just did, oh dear maybe I didn't check enough last time.  At least they now have a positive cash balance.  Operating cash flow is positive and constant but the financing charges are hurting.  Wonder what they are.  They did pay down a bit of short and long term debt in 2019.  Now only have almost all long term debt of over 5 years.  Turnover still rising in 2019 but profit down in 2019 with no clear reason (apart from an increased interest charge).  Overpaid on the dividend (versus profit) in 2018 but reduced that in 2019.  An odd one. 

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54 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

But you don’t cook?

No but I also have a shower and a pc I don’t use and I’ve just decorated my spare bedroom basicly the house will be ready for another lodger if I decide to get one I don’t think 13 quids to bad 

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On 09/01/2020 at 15:29, sancho panza said:

Cheers DB. Found them (with kudos to SP for the legwork):

"Coma scale scores on which I based our purchase from the SOIL ETF. dyor natch Tdog

Nutrien 18

yara 17

SQM 18

IPL 19

ICL 17

K+S 17"

Thyer're jsut my take aways Craig, not scientific. DYOR natch

SP, the above post reminded me... did you post your Utility Company Sancho-coma-scores? Excuse me for asking - because I believe i'm going back several months to when we initially discussed them - but If you have them to hand i'd be very grateful to see them.     

ps, sorry for being a real pest, but did you get round to transcribing your gold/silver scs into 'digital form'? I recall you saying at the time they were in the original notebooks still, and the paper was in danger of being recycled by your children! 

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Just did, oh dear maybe I didn't check enough last time.  At least they now have a positive cash balance.  Operating cash flow is positive and constant but the financing charges are hurting.  Wonder what they are.  They did pay down a bit of short and long term debt in 2019.  Now only have almost all long term debt of over 5 years.  Turnover still rising in 2019 but profit down in 2019 with no clear reason (apart from an increased interest charge).  Overpaid on the dividend (versus profit) in 2018 but reduced that in 2019.  An odd one. 

Harley, from reading your posts here i believe you study the retailers and have formulated some views on their long term prospects for into the next cycle. I wonder, do you have a list of retailers you favour? e.g. I think you may have some in your divi portfolio, but do you also have some on a watchlist for if/when get cheap/or for after market correction? 

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2 hours ago, JMD said:

Harley, from reading your posts here i believe you study the retailers and have formulated some views on their long term prospects for into the next cycle. I wonder, do you have a list of retailers you favour? e.g. I think you may have some in your divi portfolio, but do you also have some on a watchlist for if/when get cheap/or for after market correction? 

I know nothing about the future and fundamentally ignore retail.  I do have friends in the sector though.  But what fascinates me is how the sector is responding and that some still seem to be doing well, for now.  Reminds me not to use too broad a brush but to be data led.  For example, while I'm certainly not recommending DFS, if I recall correctly, their financials seem perversely good, for now.  Back to the future, I'm thinking of opening a modern take on the soup kitchen!

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Democorruptcy
On 11/01/2020 at 09:30, DoINeedOne said:

Collecting stuff is a pain in the ass but so is missing deliveries or waiting in all day and I work from home but hate when I can’t even leave for some lunch or to take the dog for a walk

Click and collect is generally free and you get to collect whilst popping out but then there’s parking which is a pain in the ass, but I do think these industrial type shopping areas are the future high street free parking, collect your item grab a coffee and leave

But also these lockers too, Amazon has them at a lot locations and I think shell petrol stations and Royal Mail have been testing a few areas with lockers for parcels where people can pick them up on them way back from work etc... having these at train stations too may be a good shout get of the train collect you shit and go home

One other thing whilst just a thought postage costs, Card Factory and personalised cards items which they seem to do, Maybe a option would be to collect form the store for free the likes of Moonpig etc... don’t have that option and postage only seems to get more expensive 

 

Again just random thoughts

That's another technology one. I haven't had to wait in all day, the day before I've been given a slot. Then I've been able to track the van real time with a countdown of drops before mine.

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Bobthebuilder

On topic i hope.

My bank has informed me that my arranged overdraft fees are increasing to 40% from April. I presume many banks are going to follow suit. How are the indebted going to manage with that.

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4 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

On topic i hope.

My bank has informed me that my arranged overdraft fees are increasing to 40% from April. I presume many banks are going to follow suit. How are the indebted going to manage with that.

NatWest? They’ve scrapped the daily charges so in theory if you are indebted you’d be better off. More annoyingly for me I have a £500 buffer where I can go overdrawn and not pay any fees or interest, which is being binned. Not that I’ve ever been overdrawn since I was a student, but still the principle.

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Bobthebuilder
1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

NatWest? They’ve scrapped the daily charges so in theory if you are indebted you’d be better off. More annoyingly for me I have a £500 buffer where I can go overdrawn and not pay any fees, which is being binned.

They are also binning arranged overdrafts, mine was £5000 gone in April.

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sleepwello'nights
1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They are also binning arranged overdrafts, mine was £5000 gone in April.

Don't you have to renew them periodically if you want to retain them?

I'm sure when I had an arranged overdraft for my business that I had to renew it annually, and pay a renewal fee!

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Total thread derail but does anyone follow  retail ‘fads’?  The milkshake ‘shop’ in my town has closed and is now a vape shop (they much to my surprise they are everywhere - might be big margins , easy market entry I’ve not really looked?). Next inflection I’d go for is vegan eateries (like the Mexican, burger, desert restaurant fads).

Anyway when is the point to ride the fad and get out? That sounds awful kind of Ratner like. Oh slightly on topic - SuperDry, Ted Baker they look like a fads - expansion and the brand value turns out not to exist? (To generate super profits)

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Well, we've had Neon Sheep and Flying Tiger Copenhagen open up near us in the last couple of years. Haven't been in but from glancing through the windows, they appear to sell stuff that no one really needs. Not sure who their demographic is, but it isn't me!

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1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

Well, we've had Neon Sheep and Flying Tiger Copenhagen open up near us in the last couple of years. Haven't been in but from glancing through the windows, they appear to sell stuff that no one really needs. Not sure who their demographic is, but it isn't me!

Flying Tiger is great for phone chargers. They sell 3 metre long iPhone cables which are great.

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19 hours ago, Harley said:

I know nothing about the future and fundamentally ignore retail.  I do have friends in the sector though.  But what fascinates me is how the sector is responding and that some still seem to be doing well, for now.  Reminds me not to use too broad a brush but to be data led.  For example, while I'm certainly not recommending DFS, if I recall correctly, their financials seem perversely good, for now.  Back to the future, I'm thinking of opening a modern take on the soup kitchen!

thanks for replying Harley, I asked because I find the sector a mystery... reduced consumerism in next cycle, expensive and decaying high-street, future shape of the retail model itself, etc, make it extremely unattractive. Even food looks as though it will suffer due to the new cost-cutting entrants (german private companies so cant even invest in them!). I mistakenly recalled you having posted on specific companies and dynamics before, but thanks for clarification, I will give it a wide berth.   

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Does anyone know the position for us in UK, re. vat charged on silver coin purchases from EU countries, after Jan 31st?

Will such taxes, along with other similar tax arrangements, continue 'as-is' during the so called transition phase? ...i.e. formal termination dates yet to be agreed. 

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2 hours ago, JMD said:

Does anyone know the position for us in UK, re. vat charged on silver coin purchases from EU countries, after Jan 31st?

Will such taxes, along with other similar tax arrangements, continue 'as-is' during the so called transition phase? ...i.e. formal termination dates yet to be agreed. 

Don't count on it.

Best buy some silver now from Estonia whilst you can. Or have some delivered to wherever you go in Europe as a holidays destination so it arrives when you are there.

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On 09/01/2020 at 20:38, Majorpain said:

Turn of the year nearly every competitor had a new website, by itself its interesting but 10 years after 2009 and a deflationary crash somewhere in the near future its red alert time. 

Credit insurer wanted more money to renew but would insure less companies compared to Jan 19, the must have been stung massively already so can see the writing on the wall for the weak.

Construction is also generally poor these days, all price and no quality, loaded with debt and finance, my prediction that 50% of the sector wouldnt survive is looking very good right now.  Even simple things like providing a size has a 25% chance of going wrong which is mad, thats before you get to the more complicated end of the spectrum.

One of the reasons I genereally avoid really weak balance sheets.Can see a lot of small to medium sized businesses folding this way

On 09/01/2020 at 21:56, Green Devil said:

Anyone got their eyes on any solar or wind investments? 

TAN ETF ?but the good stuff will all get bought up by BP

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