Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

2.1k · January 25, 2020

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

More good news for JLP holders then!

and SLP Sylvania platinum which has risen quite a bit recently

January 25, 2020

Roll Up... Roll Up... Roll Up Folks...for the BIGGEST Money Saving Tip for A life Time!

"How To Save £12 to £20 OR More Every 4 to 6 Weeks Guaranteed!"

Drum Roll...

OK, here's ya 2020 money saving scoop!

Recently i had to get a hair-cut, and going into the barbers here in the Cotswolds to see the prices was a freaking SHOCK...£14 for a short back and sides they gotta be kidding! :Old:

when i told 'em i was getting a hair-cut for £7 in near heathrow AND only 2 years prior to that it was a fiver for years, plus the Indian barber trow in a FREE head massage!

...well these Cotswolds barbers were gobsmacked!

The FREE STEP-BY-STEP method for cutting ya own hair!

1/ splash out £12.78 for clippers:

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/WAHL-Professional-Hair-Clippers-Mens-Basic-Barber-Set-Trimmer-Shaver-9155-217/173001790579?

2/ Watch this video:

3/ YOU can complete the hair-cut with just the above, i did AND it came out pretty GOOD for a 1st attempt, HOWEVER To get the back of the head really perfect you'll need to make a 3-way mirror for cheap...

SO...There ya have it, NO more barber fees, plus all that time saved going there and waiting, AND just think by 2028 hair-cuts will cost around £30 quid if DB's inflation prediction arrives...

BTW, Wonder what @DurhamBorn response to my latest money saving tip ...will be? I bet hes being doing his own hair-cuts since back in the day when he was selling those dirty mags & fags he got from the rubbish tip!

4.4k · January 25, 2020

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

This is very interesting, I wish I'd studied it a long time ago. I guess it's essentially entropy, which I did learn about, but I'd never applied it to investing till I started reading Taleb. Antifragile in particular.

I was talking to the head of drilling (a very complex activity. Imagine 100 men throwing hundreds of kilos of steel around a confined space, 24 hours a day, sitting on thousands of psi of pressures, surrounded by toxic chemicals) at my co the other day and said "mate, your job is basically fighting chaos theory". He entirely agreed. My job is coming up with ranges of probabilities. The key bit is to capture the extreme cases (tails) sensibly. Its amazing how the natural world follows statistical distributions. But I digress.

Complex systems cannot remain static as you say. And how complex is the current financial system? It will almost certainly collapse and 'decomplexify'. If it distills back down to some form of Bancor/Gold standard, nice and simple, vast numbers of smart people will be freed up for productive activity, like inventing shit! Doing what humans are supposed to do.

Perhaps one optimistic view on what could happen post 2028 pr so.

CP, it is interesting, but the numbers needn't be complex, i'm reminded of the 80/20 rule - pareto principle - which seemingly can be applied to all areas of knowledge. From the fundamental physics of the universe to time-and-motion studies. I bet if someone did the stats for this thread we would find that 20% of the members did 80% of the posts... (btw not complaining, keep em coming!).

Also been thinking more about the 'decomplexify' concept, perhaps we should pay more attention to how the Extinction-Rebellion people plan to be leading their lives in future, might give us some more investment ideas. In fact are there any XR people here? If so, would be great if you could share your portfolios?

1.6k · January 25, 2020

12 minutes ago, JMD said:

80/20 rule - pareto principle

Use this alot in life and work

1.6k · January 25, 2020

just looking into Hydrogen as i don't know much about it found this video interesting mentioned about what Shell is trying to achieve

worth a watch for clueless ones like me

2.5k · January 25, 2020

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

just looking into Hydrogen as i don't know much about it found this video interesting mentioned about what Shell is trying to achieve

worth a watch for clueless ones like me

You read my (clueless) mind! Thanks for posting this. The recent focus on here on oil/gas and what comes next has been fascinating and thought-provoking. Internet at its finest.

6.3k · January 25, 2020

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

SO...There ya have it, NO more barber fees, plus all that time saved going there and waiting, AND just think by 2028 hair-cuts will cost around £30 quid if DB's inflation prediction arrives...

Ive been cutting my own hair since i was about 18, mainly skinhead or mohican so no real talent needed.

I was going to have a take away tonight but the prices have put me off my food, £20 for 2 kebabs or £47 for a turkish dinner delivered from a resturant, mental, cant see many of these places lasting much longer.

3.8k · January 25, 2020

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Ive been cutting my own hair since i was about 18, mainly skinhead or mohican so no real talent needed.

I was going to have a take away tonight but the prices have put me off my food, £20 for 2 kebabs or £47 for a turkish dinner delivered from a resturant, mental, cant see many of these places lasting much longer.

In London the cheaper end of the kebab market has largely gone. The ones left are the good ones but they cost the best part of £10 for a kebab. Crazy!

6.3k · January 25, 2020

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

In London the cheaper end of the kebab market has largely gone. The ones left are the good ones but they cost the best part of £10 for a kebab. Crazy!

Spot on, as i was just discussing with me wife. Doner wrap £10 London, i wish my wages had kept up with that over the last few years.

1.6k · January 25, 2020

That video above made me wonder how many Shell stations have Hydrogen pump install and did the Petrol station locator on there website have that as a search option

Germany seems to have quite a few, 1 in the UK and seems like 4 In Canada

https://www.shell.co.uk/motorist/station-locator.html#iframe=Lz9sb2NhbGU9ZW5fR0IjL0A1MS42NzI1NiwtMC40MDcyMyw2eg

Or found this website that offers better layout with a few stats

https://h2.live/en

This task requires experience, time and considerable investment – which is why Air Liquide, Daimler, Linde, OMV, Shell and TOTAL jointly formed H2 MOBILITY. The company is advised and supported by the associated partners BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Volkswagen, as well as Germany’s National Organisation for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology (NOW GmbH).

6.3k · January 25, 2020

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

worth a watch for clueless ones like me

Fascinating, thank you.

7.5k · January 25, 2020

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Sure, if it were a Spanish Flu situation that killed millions. This is not a pandemic, just a run of the mill viral epidemic like SARS, Ebola or Zika. Horrible for those affected of course, but just noise in terms of energy demand.

I'm sure one of these will unfirtunately become a pandemic some day, but until then it won't affect energy demand. Of course paper oil traders treat everything like a pandemic, so I think you're right about that.

It will be interesting to see what the truth is about what is going on in China, and the cases that have been found elsewhere. We'll probably get a more accurate picture from the cases outside China in terms of infection rate and mortality rate, if more than a handful materialise.

Either it's a massive over-reaction or the shit is about to hit the fan. Even if it turns out to be a bad cold and not that deadlier than a normal flu in terms of it mostly being the elderly and immune compromised that croak it, the economic effect of locking down whole cities, forcing quarantine and potential escalation to curfews, stopping flights and travel, wariness for all things chinese for a while including avoiding chinese food outlets or places with large chinese population (china towns) or students may affect global economies enough to have a noticeable impact.

That has the potential to become the black swan event that may unbalance the debt juggling antics of many countries and companies within them if it forces a kind of recession through reduced economic activity for even a short while let alone if it escalates and has an impact measured in months not weeks.

3.8k · January 25, 2020

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Spot on, as i was just discussing with me wife. Doner wrap £10 London, i wish my wages had kept up with that over the last few years.

Same with burritos and posh burgers. 10 years ago a chicken burrito was around £4; now it’s £7-8. The posh burger places when that took off around 2012-2013 used to always have a standard plain burger on the menu which was £4-5. Now if it hasn’t been taken off the menu you’re looking at £8+. I wish my salary had kept up. Or failing that with the price of a pint in London. Before I left it was the best part of £6 a pint near my place of work.

3.7k · January 25, 2020

1 hour ago, BoSon said:

It will be interesting to see what the truth is about what is going on in China, and the cases that have been found elsewhere. We'll probably get a more accurate picture from the cases outside China in terms of infection rate and mortality rate, if more than a handful materialise.

Either it's a massive over-reaction or the shit is about to hit the fan. Even if it turns out to be a bad cold and not that deadlier than a normal flu in terms of it mostly being the elderly and immune compromised that croak it, the economic effect of locking down whole cities, forcing quarantine and potential escalation to curfews, stopping flights and travel, wariness for all things chinese for a while including avoiding chinese food outlets or places with large chinese population (china towns) or students may affect global economies enough to have a noticeable impact.

That has the potential to become the black swan event that may unbalance the debt juggling antics of many countries and companies within them if it forces a kind of recession through reduced economic activity for even a short while let alone if it escalates and has an impact measured in months not weeks.

The CCP has a direct interest in the population not finding out how bad things are! 1 in 20 Chinese being in quarantine does suggest things are not quite as "contained" as they say, although with its 10-14 day incubation period its going to be a while before we see how far its really spread.

Hopefully it blows over, although with infected in every Chinese province (bar Tibet?!!) its not looking good.

10k · January 25, 2020

You can get 2 x kebab wraps in my town for £7 on the specials.You can get a kebab for £4.50.Whale of cod and large chips enough for two people £8.

10k · January 25, 2020

20 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Same with burritos and posh burgers. 10 years ago a chicken burrito was around £4; now it’s £7-8. The posh burger places when that took off around 2012-2013 used to always have a standard plain burger on the menu which was £4-5. Now if it hasn’t been taken off the menu you’re looking at £8+. I wish my salary had kept up. Or failing that with the price of a pint in London. Before I left it was the best part of £6 a pint near my place of work.

£2.20 a pint in my home town now.Darlo is the same around £2.20 a pint.

3.8k · January 25, 2020

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

£2.20 a pint in my home town now.Darlo is the same around £2.20 a pint.

So you can buy the best part of 4 pints from an hour slaving away on minimum wage? We’ve never had it so good!

10k · January 25, 2020

Just now, Castlevania said:

So you can buy the best part of 4 pints from an hour salving away on minimum wage? We’ve never had it so good!

Yep.Local pub i used to drink in when i was young now charging £2.20 to £2.40 for different pints and really busy again and lots of younger people.Sport on as well and got a good feel again.Last time i went in with me dad i had 8 pints and had change out of £20.My dad always used to say work out your wages on a pint and a chicken

2.8k · January 25, 2020

As a complete novice I've been doing a bit of reading on the UK hydrogen situation. Quite a few companies involved, some with UK Gov backing. So far:

Powerhouse Energy

ITM Power

Ceres

AFC Energy

The sector seems like a good punt given the low share prices, upcoming budget, clean energy drive and stuff already covered in this thread.

More reading!

20.7k · January 25, 2020

7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

As a complete novice I've been doing a bit of reading on the UK hydrogen situation. Quite a few companies involved, some with UK Gov backing. So far:

Powerhouse Energy

ITM Power

Ceres

AFC Energy

The sector seems like a good punt given the low share prices, upcoming budget, clean energy drive and stuff already covered in this thread.

More reading!

Fucking hivemind.....

3.8k · January 25, 2020

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep.Local pub i used to drink in when i was young now charging £2.20 to £2.40 for different pints and really busy again and lots of younger people.Sport on as well and got a good feel again.Last time i went in with me dad i had 8 pints and had change out of £20.My dad always used to say work out your wages on a pint and a chicken

Are they owned by Stonegate? They give a lot of freedom to their pub managers to set prices, order in different types of drink and show or not show sport.

The pub me and my Flatmate used to frequent was a Stonegate pub that was either the same price or cheaper than the rather soulless Wetherspoons around the corner. Plus they had TV screens everywhere that showed all the sport. £2.80 for Fosters or Carling in zone 3 London. It was always busy.

10k · January 25, 2020

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

As a complete novice I've been doing a bit of reading on the UK hydrogen situation. Quite a few companies involved, some with UK Gov backing. So far:

Powerhouse Energy

ITM Power

Ceres

AFC Energy

The sector seems like a good punt given the low share prices, upcoming budget, clean energy drive and stuff already covered in this thread.

More reading!

Thats what i love about this thread.Lots of minds adding what they know/find for a collective to consider.When i started it i thought id be talking to myself,but instead the thread has remained a place where everyone is treated with respect and i think every one of us is learning all the time.

This is an area we need to really concentrate on a bit more.Find the direct winners and the cross market winners.Plus maybe a few long shot punts.

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

Fucking hivemind.....

AFC Energy PLC is a developer of alkaline fuel cells which use hydrogen for electricity production. The company is based in Cranleigh, Surrey, United Kingdom. It is listed on the London Stock Exchange. As of 2014, more than 15% of shares was owned by the Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich.

20.7k · January 25, 2020

@DurhamBorn I started off looking here http://www.ukh2mobility.co.uk/members/ but now I always have in my mind what you say, to look beyond the consumer (So in this case Honda cars for example?) and at the companies that supply the raw materials/energy.

I don't know enough about potash but might have a dabble in some of those you've mentioned (At my own risk of course)

8.3k · January 25, 2020

i remember looking at ITM a few years back, it looked quite impressive then, looks like theyve come a long way since.

Used to drive past it on my way to/from work, thats why i looked at it, had no idea what they did before i started digging.

bit of light comparison here, https://www.owler.com/company/itm-power

not very detailed but shows some competitors.

2.8k · January 25, 2020

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

AFC Energy PLC is a developer of alkaline fuel cells which use hydrogen for electricity production. The company is based in Cranleigh, Surrey, United Kingdom. It is listed on the London Stock Exchange. As of 2014, more than 15% of shares was owned by the Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich.

We keep esteemed company. That bloke hasn't done bad, apparently.

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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

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