Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

yar, but sometimes a mechanical redistribution can stir the boring stuff up a bit.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

47 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

TESLA!!! (colour me surprised )

 

I expect that i'll be @sancho panza making a killing shorting Tesla...

 

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

I thought these were long term buy and holds?

The dividend is pretty good on Centrica, although funnily enough today they have just fallen back to break-even point (In my holdings)

I'm NEVER selling CNA, and if they get a take over offer ...i'm NOT accepting anything under £4 quid a share!

 

While in the supermarket other day i bought a bottle of bleach ...NOT ya brand stuff like ripoff domestos!

 

Na...always go for the private label stuff SAME INGREDIENTS ...but it half-price!

 

Anyway me ol grey matter remembered a stock from the 1990's that was in this space good ol McBride (LON:MCB) a 100 year old company, use to buy when it was under a quid and flog it when it got to near 2 quid, so i checked it in the last few days and its around 62p - if it sorts its debt out, surely this would be a good company come inflation when folks can't afford the branded stuff no? anyhoo i bought some...(so its guaranteed to go DOWN in price! )

 

what do you guys think?

 

Royal Mail hit my limit order the other day @ 1.94 today its closed DOWN to 1.89 NO surprise there as i just bought!

 

if it breaks support looks like i'll be buying again...

 

@Harleyjust bought Sainsburys so expect lower prices!

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I'm NEVER selling CNA, and if they get a take over offer ...i'm NOT accepting anything under £4 quid a share!

I would need a good reason too, £4 a share would do nicely however 

4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Anyway me ol grey matter remembered a stock from the 1990's that was in this space good ol McBride (LON:MCB) a 100 year old company, use to buy when it was under a quid and flog it when it got to near 2 quid, so i checked it in the last few days and its around 62p - if it sorts its debt out, surely this would be a good company come inflation when folks can't afford the branded stuff no? anyhoo i bought some...(so its guaranteed to go DOWN in price! )

Nice find, and perfectly in keeping with the ethos of this thread 

[sancho panza]

58 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I expect that i'll be @sancho panza making a killing shorting Tesla...

 

 

YRS I gave up at about $520 and lost a killing.Them's the breaks.

Now the exponential phase is over I'll take a relook.Still looking at BDEV/PSN/BKGH/TW and wondering when the dam wall will break.

Those housebuilders love a tory majority.Get to ream taxpayers........

[sancho panza]

When this rolls over it'll be epic.#Gold/oil/potash

https://twitter.com/crescatkevin

 

And from Tavi from the same stable

[Loki]

Are any of you still topping up your silver physical stash?

[Noallegiance]

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

When this rolls over it'll be epic.#Gold/oil/potash

https://twitter.com/crescatkevin

 

And from Tavi from the same stable

I have no idea what any of that means!

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

I have no idea what any of that means!

Good, it's not just me.

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

Good, it's not just me.

There's a bit about q and cape here 

Quote

As at 13th December, 2019, with the S&P 500 at 3168.80, the overvaluations by the relevant measures were 180% for non-financials and 94% for quoted shares.

The overvaluation figures look extreme but they have done for ages. If I'd done some shorts based on it, I'd have done my bollocks completely. 
 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

There's a bit about q and cape here 

 

Thanks mate, I'll have a look tomorrow when all the neurons are firing 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks mate, I'll have a look tomorrow when all the neurons are firing 

These might help Cape and Q

But be warned, it's different this time a shoeshine boy told me, or was it Janet Yellen when she said there will never be another financial crisis? 

[Loki]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

These might help Cape and Q

 

Cheers, all good stuff to learn!

Quote

But be warned, it's different this time a shoeshine boy told me, or was it Janet Yellen when she said there will never be another financial crisis? 

Tired: Stawks

Wired: S T O N K S

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, kibuc said:

I'm afraid not, it's The Boring World of Niels Bohr out there.

Guyana hasn't released production numbers in advance of financials, which would usually be a red flag but with the new CEO in charge maybe it's the new normal.

Great Panther has some money in the coffins after receiving $21m in advance payments for future gold deliveries and they also spend circa £500k de-risking, putting $1500 floor under the gold price for Q2 and fixing FX rates. Funny that a "silver" company should care so much about gold price  Anyway, they are still a mess and one has to wonder what they are not telling us about aftermath from their Q4 fatalities.

Wesdome guided lower than expected and will beat as usual, so 100koz will be breached this year. Eagle River closing in on 1oz/t grade, absolutely bonkers. But you have to pay a top price for top assets with top management.

Fortuna announced they might have to pay $30m for overdue royalties they didn't feel obligated to honour, and the market ignored it.

No-one seems interested in the sector at the moment.

Thanks for those K.Doesn't seem like much newsflow.Seen a lot of decent stocks drift lower of late.Seems whenver the melt up is in good order for AAPL etc we get some draw down.

For the first time in a while I'm seeing some value back out there.SAND is back at $6.60 .Newcrest with a $19 handle.

Silver looks even more interesting....some real potential even in things like Hoch.Btw you heard much about BVN? They look cheap but look like they look cheap for a reason.

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, headrow said:

I own Imperial and i think the 10% drop at the open is a bit harsh , i am willing to add to my position but am waiting until the analyst downgrades have come , there is loads of coverage of this stock and if half a dozen of them downgrade it to sell i can see it having another day like today. 

 

The management of the company need sorting tbh , the share price has more than halved in the space of a couple of years.

Vodafone reported today as well , another stock i have an interest in . Look at that free cash flow.

 

 

On the monhtlies,the trend looks down.Maybe Harley got a view.

 

[sancho panza]

XOM up 4.6%

[Democorruptcy]

Fed $94 billion repo Tuesday

https://www.ccn.com/dow-rips-500-points-higher-as-94-billion-fed-repo-juices-stock-market/

Re US election Bloomberg v Trump would be a DOW dream, Bernie Sanders "doesn't like Wall Street"

https://www.ccn.com/bloomberg-vs-trump-election-would-be-a-dream-for-the-dow-jones/

[DoINeedOne]

How Low Can It Go

ROYAL MAIL RMG 

174.55-14.80 (-7.82%)

Royal Mail plc (RMG.L) today issued a trading update covering the nine months ended 29 December 2019.   

"We had a busy Christmas season, which coincided with a General Election for the first time in almost a century. We achieved a high quality service for customers across the UK due to additional investment and, more importantly, the commitment and dedication of our people - I thank them for all their efforts. 

"Overall, our recent trading performance has been broadly in line with our expectations. We confirm adjusted Group operating profit is expected to be £300-340 million (before IFRS 16) for 2019-20. 

 

"We are disappointed that the CWU has issued a timeline for a ballot of its members for industrial action. We stand ready to invest £1.8 billion to modernise and grow in the UK. We want to reach agreement with CWU; but we cannot afford to delay this essential transformation any longer. So we are proceeding with key national trials and local initiatives, to improve our customer offering and grow the business, whilst maintaining good quality jobs and delivering a sustainable Universal Service."

 

Summary operating performance

Performance in the period was impacted by 2.5 fewer working days in UKPIL compared to the prior year. This reduced UKPIL volume and revenue growth metrics by around 1 percentage point, on average. For the full year 2019-20, the working day impact will not be material.

 

	Change1 As reported	Change1 Working day adjusted
Group revenue	3.7%	4.5%
UKPIL revenue	1.0%	2.1%
Parcels volumes	3%	4%
Parcels revenue	3.7%	4.9%
Addressed letter volumes    (ex. elections)	(9%)	(8%)
Letters revenue	(1.5%)	(0.4%)
GLS volumes	5%	-
GLS revenue	11.1%	-

 Operating performance

Unless otherwise stated, results are provided for the nine months ended 29 December 2019. 

GLS continued to perform well, with revenue growth of 11.1% (7.3% excluding acquisitions). In North America, Dicom, our Canadian business, continued to perform in line with our expectations. The turnaround of our US business remains in line with our plan for this year. In Europe, revenue growth was driven by strong performances in Germany, Belgium and Eastern European markets. 

 

UKPIL revenue grew 1.0% (2.1% working day adjusted). Parcel revenue growth more than offset the decline in letters. 

 

Parcels

Total UK volumes were up 3% (4% working day adjusted), and revenue increased by 3.7% (4.9% working day adjusted). Around Black Friday and Cyber Monday volumes were higher than expected. For the rest of the Christmas period² they were, on average, lower than anticipated. Due to the risk of industrial action, some customers switched volumes to other carriers. This reduced parcel revenue growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points. 

Parcels performance in January was stronger than Q3, which underpins our confidence in a higher level of revenue and volume growth in Q4. 

Royal Mail domestic account parcels volumes, excluding Amazon, were up 5% (6% working day adjusted). Royal Mail Tracked 24^®/48^® and Tracked Returns^® volumes, our key e-commerce products, grew by 17% (18% working day adjusted). Quality over the Christmas period for our Tracked^2,3 products was even better than last year.

 

Parcelforce Worldwide volumes increased by 1% (2% working day adjusted).

 Letters

Total letter revenue decreased by 1.5% (0.4% working day adjusted). It benefited from targeted price rises from January 2019, the European Parliamentary Election in May and the UK General Election in December.

Addressed letter volumes (excluding political parties' election mailings) declined by 9% (8% working day adjusted), in line with our revised expectations for the full year.

 Additional price increases in business mail came into effect from January 2020.

Operations and Transformation

We are disappointed CWU has said it is preparing another ballot of its members for industrial action.

We want to reach agreement to secure a successful and sustainable future for our UK business. Industrial action, or the threat of it, is damaging for our business and undermines the trust of our customers. We continue to offer CWU the opportunity for ongoing talks.

 

We have moved forward in key areas of our transformation plan:

·     We have chosen the supplier for automation of our Warrington parcel hub, which will handle 40,000 items per hour when fully operational. We are finalising the lease for our 2^nd parcel hub in the Midlands. It will be able to handle 60,000 items per hour when first operational. Both hubs have the option to increase capacity in the future. We are continuing to explore options for our 3^rd (and final) hub.

·     We continue to roll out small Parcel Sorting Machines (PSMs). Over the Black Friday and Christmas period, we almost doubled the number of parcels sorted automatically, to 39m from 22m last year.

·     A further 7 letter sequencing machines were decommissioned in Q3, making total of 24 year to date, as we adapt our network to handle fewer letters and more parcels.

·     We are deploying a range of much needed local change initiatives and key trials, which have been held up for many months.

 

Current trading and outlook 

 2019-20

 As a result of additional investment to underpin our Quality of Service and protect deliveries over the General Election and Christmas, productivity improvement was 1.3% in the period. It is now expected to be around 1.5% for the full year, against our 2% target.

 

We confirm all other guidance for 2019-20:

 

·     Adjusted Group operating profit is expected to be £300-340 million (before IFRS 16). 

·     Addressed letter volume declines (excluding elections) to be in the range of 7-9%.

·     Cost avoidance programme is on target to deliver £150-200 million costs avoided.

·     GLS adjusted operating profit margin of 6-7%.

 

2020-21

The outlook for 2020-21 is challenging. The Q3 run rate for addressed letter volumes (excluding elections) has not shown the expected level of recovery. This, coupled with the ongoing uncertain business environment, means that we now expect a 1 percentage point increase in the decline, to 7-9% for 2020-21.

 

Further, the ongoing industrial relations environment and delays to the delivery of our transformation plan, when combined with continuing economic uncertainty, increases the likelihood that UKPIL will be loss making in 2020-21. Unless we are able to make significant progress in delivering our transformation plan, our ability to meet the year 3 targets of our Journey 2024 plan will be compromised. 

 

We are taking additional mitigating actions, and will provide an update on progress with these and further guidance with our 2019-20 full year results, which are expected to be announced on 21 May 2020. 

 

We continue to execute on our Journey 2024 plan as the best way to deliver a successful and sustainable future for the UK business. 

We expect GLS to perform in line with our plan.

 

 

Tweet from July last year Royal Mail’s 32,000m² Warrington parcel hub – one of three it will build in the UK over five years

 

[JMD]

On 04/02/2020 at 22:55, sancho panza said:

On reflection,GS ratio is onetiming indicator of many but main thing I'd take from my research is that actually the most important aspect of it's power is with regard to timing silver,not gold.As a silver timer it looks incredible.

Needs to be considered alongside DXY I think.

SP, thanks i'm still researching and learning about this. Why would the DXY be significant when trading the g/s ratio? 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

@DoINeedOne How Low Can It Go

 

Well RM have broken there 1 year chart support line, so its anyones guess!

maybe its time: "to be greedy when others are fearful" ?

 

wish i checked RM when there next results were due could of bought that bundle at a 20% reduction!

 

if they went to under a quid i say they are bust, OR if they get any lower (as of posting they hit £1.70 )...maybe DHL will snap them up, want do you reckon @DurhamBorn

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

How Low Can It Go

ROYAL MAIL RMG 

174.55-14.80 (-7.82%)

If they show how bad those UK figures are to their workers, they would be mad to strike. They should just all load up on shares and vote not to strike.

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

How Low Can It Go

ROYAL MAIL RMG 

174.55-14.80 (-7.82%)

Royal Mail plc (RMG.L) today issued a trading update covering the nine months ended 29 December 2019.   

"We had a busy Christmas season, which coincided with a General Election for the first time in almost a century. We achieved a high quality service for customers across the UK due to additional investment and, more importantly, the commitment and dedication of our people - I thank them for all their efforts. 

"Overall, our recent trading performance has been broadly in line with our expectations. We confirm adjusted Group operating profit is expected to be £300-340 million (before IFRS 16) for 2019-20. 

 

"We are disappointed that the CWU has issued a timeline for a ballot of its members for industrial action. We stand ready to invest £1.8 billion to modernise and grow in the UK. We want to reach agreement with CWU; but we cannot afford to delay this essential transformation any longer. So we are proceeding with key national trials and local initiatives, to improve our customer offering and grow the business, whilst maintaining good quality jobs and delivering a sustainable Universal Service."

 

Summary operating performance

Performance in the period was impacted by 2.5 fewer working days in UKPIL compared to the prior year. This reduced UKPIL volume and revenue growth metrics by around 1 percentage point, on average. For the full year 2019-20, the working day impact will not be material.

 

	Change1 As reported	Change1 Working day adjusted
Group revenue	3.7%	4.5%
UKPIL revenue	1.0%	2.1%
Parcels volumes	3%	4%
Parcels revenue	3.7%	4.9%
Addressed letter volumes    (ex. elections)	(9%)	(8%)
Letters revenue	(1.5%)	(0.4%)
GLS volumes	5%	-
GLS revenue	11.1%	-

 Operating performance

Unless otherwise stated, results are provided for the nine months ended 29 December 2019. 

GLS continued to perform well, with revenue growth of 11.1% (7.3% excluding acquisitions). In North America, Dicom, our Canadian business, continued to perform in line with our expectations. The turnaround of our US business remains in line with our plan for this year. In Europe, revenue growth was driven by strong performances in Germany, Belgium and Eastern European markets. 

 

UKPIL revenue grew 1.0% (2.1% working day adjusted). Parcel revenue growth more than offset the decline in letters. 

 

Parcels

Total UK volumes were up 3% (4% working day adjusted), and revenue increased by 3.7% (4.9% working day adjusted). Around Black Friday and Cyber Monday volumes were higher than expected. For the rest of the Christmas period² they were, on average, lower than anticipated. Due to the risk of industrial action, some customers switched volumes to other carriers. This reduced parcel revenue growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points. 

Parcels performance in January was stronger than Q3, which underpins our confidence in a higher level of revenue and volume growth in Q4. 

Royal Mail domestic account parcels volumes, excluding Amazon, were up 5% (6% working day adjusted). Royal Mail Tracked 24^®/48^® and Tracked Returns^® volumes, our key e-commerce products, grew by 17% (18% working day adjusted). Quality over the Christmas period for our Tracked^2,3 products was even better than last year.

 

Parcelforce Worldwide volumes increased by 1% (2% working day adjusted).

 Letters

Total letter revenue decreased by 1.5% (0.4% working day adjusted). It benefited from targeted price rises from January 2019, the European Parliamentary Election in May and the UK General Election in December.

Addressed letter volumes (excluding political parties' election mailings) declined by 9% (8% working day adjusted), in line with our revised expectations for the full year.

 Additional price increases in business mail came into effect from January 2020.

Operations and Transformation

We are disappointed CWU has said it is preparing another ballot of its members for industrial action.

We want to reach agreement to secure a successful and sustainable future for our UK business. Industrial action, or the threat of it, is damaging for our business and undermines the trust of our customers. We continue to offer CWU the opportunity for ongoing talks.

 

We have moved forward in key areas of our transformation plan:

·     We have chosen the supplier for automation of our Warrington parcel hub, which will handle 40,000 items per hour when fully operational. We are finalising the lease for our 2^nd parcel hub in the Midlands. It will be able to handle 60,000 items per hour when first operational. Both hubs have the option to increase capacity in the future. We are continuing to explore options for our 3^rd (and final) hub.

·     We continue to roll out small Parcel Sorting Machines (PSMs). Over the Black Friday and Christmas period, we almost doubled the number of parcels sorted automatically, to 39m from 22m last year.

·     A further 7 letter sequencing machines were decommissioned in Q3, making total of 24 year to date, as we adapt our network to handle fewer letters and more parcels.

·     We are deploying a range of much needed local change initiatives and key trials, which have been held up for many months.

 

Current trading and outlook 

 2019-20

 As a result of additional investment to underpin our Quality of Service and protect deliveries over the General Election and Christmas, productivity improvement was 1.3% in the period. It is now expected to be around 1.5% for the full year, against our 2% target.

 

We confirm all other guidance for 2019-20:

 

·     Adjusted Group operating profit is expected to be £300-340 million (before IFRS 16). 

·     Addressed letter volume declines (excluding elections) to be in the range of 7-9%.

·     Cost avoidance programme is on target to deliver £150-200 million costs avoided.

·     GLS adjusted operating profit margin of 6-7%.

 

2020-21

The outlook for 2020-21 is challenging. The Q3 run rate for addressed letter volumes (excluding elections) has not shown the expected level of recovery. This, coupled with the ongoing uncertain business environment, means that we now expect a 1 percentage point increase in the decline, to 7-9% for 2020-21.

 

Further, the ongoing industrial relations environment and delays to the delivery of our transformation plan, when combined with continuing economic uncertainty, increases the likelihood that UKPIL will be loss making in 2020-21. Unless we are able to make significant progress in delivering our transformation plan, our ability to meet the year 3 targets of our Journey 2024 plan will be compromised. 

 

We are taking additional mitigating actions, and will provide an update on progress with these and further guidance with our 2019-20 full year results, which are expected to be announced on 21 May 2020. 

 

We continue to execute on our Journey 2024 plan as the best way to deliver a successful and sustainable future for the UK business. 

We expect GLS to perform in line with our plan.

 

 

Tweet from July last year Royal Mail’s 32,000m² Warrington parcel hub – one of three it will build in the UK over five years

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24489068

Ah 'best in the world' (c) NHS

 

[Alifelessbinary]

The market has truest gone bonkers at the moment!

i was looking at RMG the other day to see whether they are also a bit of property play. They’ve recently sold off some of their prime assets in Battersea but they still hold a lot of strategic stock especially for last mile delivery. I spoke to one of their property team the other day and a lot of their stock has restrictions to sell and needs union consultation. This limits flexibility greatly, but still a solid industrial portfolio. If you look at the pure oindustrial property plays like Segro they’ve been on a tear the last few years.

 

[Alifelessbinary]

With regards to house building shares, I’m waiting until after March before shorting any stock (obviously DYOR ect...) I’ve heard that the government is gearing up to creat a £100 billion fund for infrastructure projects and  as part of the package is changing HIF (housing infrastructure fund) funding to become SHIFT. This will likely de-risk a lot of the enabling works for house builders and protect profits, as all parties are hell bent on delivering housing. The only difference is the Tories want private and Labour want social.

[Alifelessbinary]

The only reason that stops me buying a few for the divis for the next 24 months is I work in property so already massively  exposed. I also stay away because of the themes of this thread and current prices have been unsustainable for a very long time in the SE!

[Loki]

SSE are doing well. Is it down to the 5 transactions in own shares very recently?