Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Obviously there is still time to change their minds but FT suggest Pension Tax Relief is dropping from 40% to 20% in the March 11th Budget:

It’s an interesting one when you consider defined contribution/ salary sacrifice schemes. Seeing as you save on the national insurance contributions too, a higher rate tax person will now save 22% but a standard rate tax payer will save 32%. Not sure if that’s fair?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

and of course some infrastructure news from that great bastion of accurate and technical reporting;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7982525/Boris-Johnson-revives-20billion-plan-bridge-Scotland-Northern-Ireland.html

Still, its public info i suppose.

 

 

Yeah right!...they don't appear to be competent in managing land-based projects I.e HS2, let alone something that would involve much greater engineering challenges as covering this span across water!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chewing Grass
3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Yeah right!...they don't appear to be competent in managing land-based projects I.e HS2, let alone something that would involve much greater engineering challenges as covering this span across water!

Yeah, and who is going to pay to maintain that fucker over such a wild, windswept stretch of salt-water, maintenance costs will be at least £500 million per year ongoing something the capex boys like to ignore. One good winter storm could double that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chewing Grass
12 hours ago, Castlevania said:

It’s an interesting one when you consider defined contribution/ salary sacrifice schemes. Seeing as you save on the national insurance contributions too, a higher rate tax person will now save 22% but a standard rate tax payer will save 32%. Not sure if that’s fair?

Financial spit-roast, take it up both end you fuckers.

At least everyone has the option of working harder for the same in their pocket.

EU working time directive needs to be the next thing canned.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

EU working time directive needs to be the next thing canned.

Well the UK had specific modifications to that allowed anyway, so once fully ratified you can guess which way the working week is going to go, and it won't be massive amounts of leisure time as `promised` with the advent of automisation/computerisation in the 70s!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Well the UK had specific modifications to that allowed anyway, so once fully ratified you can guess which way the working week is going to go, and it won't be massive amounts of leisure time as `promised` with the advent of automisation/computerisation in the 70s!

and wheres my flying car?

and robot sex doll?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

and wheres my flying car?

and robot sex doll?

Well, with zero hour contracts you would be lucky to afford the bus fare to work, let alone the flying car...and as for the doll, with such long working hours you don't have the time, let alone the energy! :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Charting resources

Anyone know of any free charting software and/or educational resources?...I have watched a few YouTube videos and would like to have a `play`/extend my knowledge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Charting resources

Anyone know of any free charting software and/or educational resources?...I have watched a few YouTube videos and would like to have a `play`/extend my knowledge.

ProRealTime

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
On 06/02/2020 at 15:53, DurhamBorn said:

I have no idea,my ladders go down to £1.44 so i just buy when levels are hit and see where they are around 2027.The new chief exec will be playing hard ball with the union.The union members are crazy and they have a choice.Work at Hermes or accept change and still have a good job.If i was him i would launch redundancies and start to eliminate 15% at each depot.RM future is to deliver in 24 hrs especially items bought later in the evening.If they can do that,as they will if they build the new hubs etc,then they will be way ahead of any other courier.

Its actually amazing how volatile things are.Iv some iv been buying up 50%+,others down from first ladder 50% (luckily only a couple).I actually sold out of a ladder in SSE today as it was up nearly 50% including divis and sold a few BAT that had gone up 37% including divi.The market pricing a company like BAT a difference of 37% when nothing has changed within 12 months shows how crazy end of cycles can be.

We are at the end of a long cycle,that is obvious.Margins and profits are under big pressure,and they will be for some time in many areas,but thats when people price profits instead of pricing assets.I said 2 years ago i expected PE ratios to come down to 6 to 8 area in cyclicals,and thats exactly where a lot are sitting.

Prices will start to increase right across the economy after one last deflation kick down,and when that happens most of the companies way out of favour will respond and highly rated growth will be whacked.Crucial to keep a good spread of companies and sectors and be clinical,not emotional.

If you notice we are getting masses of companies struggling,yet the market thinks its each company at fault,when really the main culprit is the cycle and where we are in it.Iv seen two other occasions in my life when this happened,and although hard to hold your nerve,it ended up providing massive profits in the years ahead.I think this is the third time.

 

THANKS mate, worthy of reposting...:Beer:

I noticed that RMG shares bounced back from the £1.70 low of that day i posted to ...£1.78!

Always remeber the ol' traders saying back in the day about buying on the "3rd PROFIT WARNING" ...anyone here know anyting about this saying???

also noticed how RMG went up for a bit for a few weeks after bad results/share dive!

Time will tell, maybe we should of loaded up at £1.70 :Old:...funny ol' game!

Folks keep ya eyes peeled when they post NEXT results in MAY...

 

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

The BELL has been RUNG!

The Smart-arse-bezos of this world always sell near the TOP...

Time to SHORT! ...DYOR as ever!:ph34r: (AS i'm NOT shorting it could well be profitablexD)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

OK, perhaps I am missing something (likely as I am a novice), but here are my thoughts.

1. You are not rebalancing as the sum is in PMs (single asset type) regardless of their respective %d to each other.

2. If your plan works you could have more gold but what does this mean in regard to your whole portfolio and its increasing (hopefully!) performance?...the price of PMs could drop substantially relative to the other assets in your portfolio (or the ones you could have had in place of the PMs) so `more` could actually be `less`...your GSR plan/thinking appears to be in its own `bubble` [no offense meant :-)].

MrXxxx, no offence taken, all ideas should be challenged.

Many here talk about having a min. 10-20% portfolio allocation to PM complex - but then further sub-divided into miners/gold/silver. To be clear I was only referring to the gold+silver.

If being honest I guess all investment strategies are based upon personal 'leaps of faith' (could be data related/could be mere bubble talk?) about the future, and its economic, political and social conditions. Anyway, personally I think PM's will be amongst the strongest investment performers, and I am allocating 20% of my portfolio to them. My task for me - given this high % - is to de-risk where possible. So for example I notice that my GDX etf performed approx. as well as my individual gold miners, so I will go mostly with the GDX etf. Unfortunately we in the UK don't have a silver miner etf available to us. I still need to get the right selection (for me, as I am not a trader) of silver (and some gold) miner stocks for long-term holds.

As for silver/gold, many believe that silver will outperform gold. Its increasingly repeated to 'trade silver and hold gold'. My thoughts - and this is just one possible strategy of many - is that the GSR can help me 'swop' my initial overweight silver position into gold over say the next 10 years. It can also perhaps indicate when to swop (for me this would only be small amounts) back into silver, or even when to buy and add new amounts to total gold/silver investment.

Your point about PM's dropping is a risk i acknowledge, but we should all start with an investment strategy based on what we think may happen/then adapt as necessary if/when real world events go against predictions. For me I look to 'lock-in' future silver gains by moving over time into gold (the GSR helps take the emotion out of doing this). Yes, maybe gold and silver are the same asset class, but there is a school of thought which says silver and gold are dislocating - because silver is increasingly seen as a commodity, whereas gold remains a store of value (in which case am I replacing a commodity with a store of value?, but if that were the case wouldn't that be a massive win, kicking the rest of this discussion well out of the ball park?)... oh dear, more complexities in the PM complex to think about!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Of the FANG's he is the most exposed to China due to cheap stuff manufactured there sold on his platform.  Apple is a close second.

Next week is looking to be very interesting, I wonder what $1t AMZN is going to be worth in a few months time?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
40 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I noticed that RMG shares bounced back from the £1.70 low of that day i posted to ...£1.78!

Always remeber the ol' traders saying back in the day about buying on the "3rd PROFIT WARNING" ...anyone here know anyting about this saying???

also noticed how RMG went up for a bit for a few weeks after bad results/share dive!

Time will tell, maybe we should of loaded up at £1.70 :Old:...funny ol' game!

Folks keep ya eyes peeled when they post NEXT results in MAY...

I suspect RMG went up pre-xmas because the strike was blocked in the courts, an election was called which increased post, as the election drew closer Labour looked less likely to win and Nationalise them.

I expect the next wobble/jump might be related to the ongoing potential of a strike or not, or maybe less post from China (Amazon/Ebay etc) to deliver due to obvious reasons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Of the FANG's he is the most exposed to China due to cheap stuff manufactured there sold on his platform.  Apple is a close second.

Next week is looking to be very interesting, I wonder what $1t AMZN is going to be worth in a few months time?

AMZN seem to be valued like they are going to expand forever.  Surely, now they are pretty much a monopoly, the expansion is somewhat limited?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, leonardratso said:

and of course some infrastructure news from that great bastion of accurate and technical reporting;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7982525/Boris-Johnson-revives-20billion-plan-bridge-Scotland-Northern-Ireland.html

Still, its public info i suppose.

 

 

Interesting, but tbh this bridge project has been mooted for years, though sometimes its from North Wales to NI.

Then again I guess it makes sense, as there aren't as many nimbys in the Irish sea. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Of the FANG's he is the most exposed to China due to cheap stuff manufactured there sold on his platform.  Apple is a close second.

Next week is looking to be very interesting, I wonder what $1t AMZN is going to be worth in a few months time?

I closed down my import company just over a year ago and closed my Amazon seller account just before xmas when i was 100% sure i wasnt going to set up again.Importing from China was an amazing business.It was really a way to get 100% interest on your capital every 6 months.However those days are over.China isnt cheap anymore when you add in all costs.The quality is still poor outside of the big manufacturing companies.Amazon cannot get stock much cheaper than anyone else,your talking a few %,but their costs are much higher.Funny enough they are just opening a new centre in Darlington,over 1000 jobs want filling the next couple of months.I just cant see them being ever able to make $100billion free cash flow a year,and they need to if they are worth $1 trillion now.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I closed down my import company just over a year ago and closed my Amazon seller account just before xmas when i was 100% sure i wasnt going to set up again.Importing from China was an amazing business.It was really a way to get 100% interest on your capital every 6 months.However those days are over.China isnt cheap anymore when you add in all costs.The quality is still poor outside of the big manufacturing companies.Amazon cannot get stock much cheaper than anyone else,your talking a few %,but their costs are much higher.Funny enough they are just opening a new centre in Darlington,over 1000 jobs want filling the next couple of months.I just cant see them being ever able to make $100billion free cash flow a year,and they need to if they are worth $1 trillion now.

 

Very interesting thanks, Jeff Bezos would seem to share your sentiments about the companies prospects!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazons-heavy-recruitment-of-chinese-sellers-puts-consumers-at-risk-11573489075

Just under 40% of top sellers in UK/US are from China, its over 50% in France/Spain, thats before you even get to merchants like you used to be selling Chinese goods.  If China doesn't get those factories open soon, Amazon is going to struggle for $1Bn free cash flow, never mind $100bn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

M S E Refugee
On 06/02/2020 at 15:53, DurhamBorn said:

I have no idea,my ladders go down to £1.44 so i just buy when levels are hit and see where they are around 2027.The new chief exec will be playing hard ball with the union.The union members are crazy and they have a choice.Work at Hermes or accept change and still have a good job.If i was him i would launch redundancies and start to eliminate 15% at each depot.RM future is to deliver in 24 hrs especially items bought later in the evening.If they can do that,as they will if they build the new hubs etc,then they will be way ahead of any other courier.

Its actually amazing how volatile things are.Iv some iv been buying up 50%+,others down from first ladder 50% (luckily only a couple).I actually sold out of a ladder in SSE today as it was up nearly 50% including divis and sold a few BAT that had gone up 37% including divi.The market pricing a company like BAT a difference of 37% when nothing has changed within 12 months shows how crazy end of cycles can be.

We are at the end of a long cycle,that is obvious.Margins and profits are under big pressure,and they will be for some time in many areas,but thats when people price profits instead of pricing assets.I said 2 years ago i expected PE ratios to come down to 6 to 8 area in cyclicals,and thats exactly where a lot are sitting.

Prices will start to increase right across the economy after one last deflation kick down,and when that happens most of the companies way out of favour will respond and highly rated growth will be whacked.Crucial to keep a good spread of companies and sectors and be clinical,not emotional.

If you notice we are getting masses of companies struggling,yet the market thinks its each company at fault,when really the main culprit is the cycle and where we are in it.Iv seen two other occasions in my life when this happened,and although hard to hold your nerve,it ended up providing massive profits in the years ahead.I think this is the third time.

 

I work for Royal Mail and I wouldn't say the Union members were crazy, we had an agreement that the management ripped up so understandably we are a bit miffed. 

However redundancies would be welcome as in my office as we are overstaffed and they could cut around 25% of the staff no problem but unfortunately we have probably the worst management in the Country,half the time we have to organise ourselves to start machines as our morbidly obese Managers just sit in their office eating.

We ought to be delivering parcels 7 days a week but higher management will not countenance such things until most of our competition does it,Royal Mail's management are reactive rather than proactive. 

Most of us are up for change as we know that is the only way to keep our jobs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clueless Imbecile

Just wondering what you guys opinions are on asset allocation?

I read that the traditional theory seems to be "Subtract your age from 100, and the result is the percentage you should have in the stockmarket. The rest should be in bonds & cash.". For example: a 40 year old would have 60% in equities and 40% in bonds & cash.

However, I think bonds (or at least government bonds) are overvalued nowadays (yields too low), perhaps due to quantitative easing ("QE"). Also, cash pays little or no interest nowadays, meaning that its value is likely to get eaten away at by inflation. What to do with the non-equity part of a portfolio?!

 

I currently have approx 72% equities, 4% PMs, 7% bonds & 17% cash. Feels like I'm overweight in equities but then I also think corporate bonds are risky and government bonds are overpriced (and hence risky).

 

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I work for Royal Mail and I wouldn't say the Union members were crazy, we had an agreement that the management ripped up so understandably we are a bit miffed. 

However redundancies would be welcome as in my office as we are overstaffed and they could cut around 25% of the staff no problem but unfortunately we have probably the worst management in the Country,half the time we have to organise ourselves to start machines as our morbidly obese Managers just sit in their office eating.

We ought to be delivering parcels 7 days a week but higher management will not countenance such things until most of our competition does it,Royal Mail's management are reactive rather than proactive. 

Most of us are up for change as we know that is the only way to keep our jobs. 

Can you keep us up to date with any potential strike action or changes to the USO?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

M S E Refugee
13 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Can you keep us up to date with any potential strike action or changes to the USO?

No problem.

A strike is nailed on I'm afraid unless they can overturn it in the courts again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 06/02/2020 at 15:02, sancho panza said:

It's the Dollar index.

 

Kaplan back>promising a deeper dig next week.Timely advice as ever.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2020/02/men-it-has-been-well-said-think-in.html

Sunday, February 2, 2020

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.” --Charles Mackay (1841)

...

Investing Tip #2: when you are opening any position, gradually accumulate risk using ladders of good-until-canceled orders, not with lump-sum lucky strikes.

There is no way to know in advance how extreme any given asset will get when it is completing a topping or a bottoming process, nor is it possible to determine when the ultimate zenith or nadir will occur. Therefore you must avoid dangerously accumulating risk with lump-sum opening positions. Occasionally you will get lucky, but if you buy too much at once and underpriced assets become even more absurdly undervalued--as they usually do--then you won't have enough cash to keep steadily buying. In addition, once any security completes a major bottom it usually forms several higher lows before it rallies strongly. These higher lows should be used as opportunities to keep adding to your position. Think of investing as adding one grain of sand at a time to each pile, not a whole bag at once, and to keep gradually adding until prices become too expensive.  

Perhaps the simplest way to accomplish this objective is to place a ladder of small orders, with each rung in the ladder consisting of roughly 1/1000 (one-thousandth) of your total liquid net worth. Each order can be placed roughly 1% apart from each other order. If an asset worth buying keeps dropping in price, you will buy more of it each time it falls another 1%. If the security rebounds, then you can replace orders which were already filled with identical orders at the same prices and quantities, so that if there is another pullback then you will gradually buy more of it into weakness. This is how many top corporate insiders and market makers accumulate their positions.

The basic idea is that a topping or bottoming pattern is usually a process, not an event. Instead of trying to use magic market timing or mystically guessing when a top or bottom is occurring, gradually scale into any position in which you are increasing your risk.

...

This is excellent, reminds me of @DurhamBorn 's laddering explanation.  Kaplan's buying at each 1% down looks a bit tight but guess it can be done if fees are low enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 06/02/2020 at 15:02, sancho panza said:

Kaplan back>promising a deeper dig next week.Timely advice as ever.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2020/02/men-it-has-been-well-said-think-in.html

 

From my largest to my smallest position I currently am long GDXJ, 4-week U.S. Treasuries yielding 1.573%, the TIAA-CREF Traditional Annuity Fund, SIL, XES (some new), ELD, FCG (some new), OIH (some new), PSCE (some new), bank CDs, money-market funds, GDX, I-Bonds, SCIF, MTDR (some new), URA (some new), PAK, EPOL, ECH, COPX, REMX, HDGE, LIT (most sold), EZA (most sold), GXG (most sold), ASHS (most sold), ASHR (most sold), SEA (most sold), VNM (most sold), TUR (most sold), FXF, EGPT, GOEX, BGEIX, NGE, FXB, EWM, RGLD, WPM, SAND, SILJ, AA (brand new), SLX (most sold), FM (most sold), ARGT (most sold), EWW (most sold), RSXJ (most sold), GREK (most sold), and CHK. I am completely sold out of EWU, EWG, EWI, EWD, EWQ, EWK, EWN, WOOD, EPHE, JOF, AFK, and IDX.

I am really struggling to find low fee place which trades these.  Degiro and Trading 212 have couple of things from the list but none of the oil company or silver funds.  Does anyone have any suggestions?  On XES, OIH etc.  I know SIL is not available in UK.

I have started buying individual company share but looking for some (preferably mainly capital gains) ETFs, as  none of my holdings are in SIPP and I want to avoid withholding dividend tax

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...