Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

59 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

I am considering getting a big TV as I think that any pauses in china's production may push up prices short term. But can't justify it as I barely watch it

I've just put an Aldi leaflet down with Medion 50" 4K Smart TV for £279.99  I'm out of touch with prices but it seemed cheap? I've never had that brand.

[Bear Hug]

18 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

If you do, get an LG. They make a lot of the components for other brands (eg Samsung) but are much cheaper. 

I quite like the idea of Philips ambilight. Not sure what it would add to occasional watching of news though

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've just put an Aldi leaflet down with Medion 50" 4K Smart TV for £279.99  I'm out of touch with prices but it seemed cheap? I've never had that brand.

Looks about right for the unknown brand one, the 50 inch ambilight one I mentioned above is around £320 from Spanish Amazon. 

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've just put an Aldi leaflet down with Medion 50" 4K Smart TV for £279.99  I'm out of touch with prices but it seemed cheap? I've never had that brand.

All supermarket TVs (and base level Toshibas etc) are made by a Turkish company called vestel using Chinese components. That’s why supermarkets brought the name rights to defunct companies like Poloroid, Blupunkt, Grundig etc. This is so they could stock cheap ‘black friday’ type televisions with a brand sounding name that someone has heard of, a bit like Sports Direct.

All perfectly acceptable if you require a cheap, big TV of course. Key factors will be upscaling of low bitrate/resolution sources and fast moving sports or panning and washed out black levels (due to LCD backlight).

The other end of the scale is something like a Sony AF9 OLED, which is top draw. There are other cheaper options that uses the Sony panels however like Philips OLED ambilight does but has its own picture processing.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Sideysid said:

All supermarket TVs (and base level Toshibas etc) are made by a Turkish company called vestel using Chinese components. That’s why supermarkets brought the name rights to defunct companies like Poloroid, Blupunkt, Grundig etc. This is so they could stock cheap ‘black friday’ type televisions with a brand sounding name that someone has heard of, a bit like Sports Direct.

All perfectly acceptable if you require a cheap, big TV of course. Key factors will be upscaling of low bitrate/resolution sources and fast moving sports or panning and washed out black levels (due to LCD backlight).

The other end of the scale is something like a Sony AF9 OLED, which is top draw. There are other cheaper options that uses the Sony panels however like Philips OLED ambilight does but has its own picture processing.

I thought all the OLED panels were made by LG.

[Lightscribe]

30 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I thought all the OLED panels were made by LG.

LG patented the manufacturing process so everyone was held to ransom for some years by having to use their panels hence why Samsung came out with QLED (which isn’t OLED). Sony is rumoured to still use LG Display panels (different company to LG) and are producing the flagship stuff. Go into Curry’s etc and even on a multi-feed source they stand out from the crowd (not in a garish usual shop trickery way of ramping up Dynamic colour settings) in picture processing. I haven’t got one (still got a Sony flagship TV from back in 2012) but eventually when a refurbished return deal comes up on Sony Warehouse at the right price I may upgrade. That is how I originally got my TV at £3k RRP to £800.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Majorpain said:

irrelevant if companies cant get the components they require to manufacture goods, its a hassle to find another supplier, drawings/manufacturing info need updating etc, so its not a seamless transition to change.  Even for a small business there are 200+ process components which need to be in place for product to go out the door

And with the advent of JIT production this problem becomes exacerbated as there will be no spare capacity/stock of parts to keep production going in the meantime.

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, spygirl said:

Those are the stupid Router masters.

Its hard to get an exact price, s DD prices are murky.

The world's best double decker is probably the Enviro400.

This will cost 150-200k.

However .... itll have a good resale value after 5 years.

AlexanderDennis couachbuilding. Volvo transmission, Cummins engine.

The operational cost of these buses is very very small - they are very wee designed and built.

https://www.alexander-dennis.com/products/double-deck-buses-2-axle/enviro400/

Phwaor ....

And for the thread crossers/conspiracy minded , thats Sirius Minerals HQ in the background.

 

 

 

 

 

That's it, `bus porn`...I've seen everything on this forum now! :-) :-) :-)

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

That's it, `bus porn`...I've seen everything on this forum now! :-) :-) :-)

I was on a bus on Saturday - an Environ 400 too!

God knows what was happening, asthe bus was not new. But it went down a road and,there, on a corner, were about 5 bus spotters, will the cameras on tripods, who all took pictures.

 

[MrXxxx]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I was on a bus on Saturday - an Environ 400 too!

God knows what was happening, asthe bus was not new. But it went down a road and,there, on a corner, were about 5 bus spotters, will the cameras on tripods, who all took pictures.

 

Hope you did a moony as the bus passed them? :-)

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 21/01/2020 at 16:57, DurhamBorn said:

Agreed most people dont understand,but they dont need to,they just need to be fed up.We are seeing a revolution in front of us.The Tories took Blyth Valley and Redcar.They took where i live for  first time ever by 8000 votes.

People are voting against the system.Politics is following the macro as it always does.Interesting years ago and ordinary people go to war with the left.

The modern day bread and circuses are Netflix, phones and eating out at nandos or whetherspoons

[kibuc]

Centrica down 17% this morning after posting earning (or lack thereof).

Tempting, no doubt.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Centrica down 17% this morning after posting earning (or lack thereof).

Tempting, no doubt.

Yeah that was a shock.  Still just above my first ever order price point

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Centrica down 17% this morning after posting earning (or lack thereof).

Tempting, no doubt.

Ouch! and I mean that personally.

I think they'll get taken over soona nd we'll get to eat our lossess.

[DurhamBorn]

58 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Centrica down 17% this morning after posting earning (or lack thereof).

Tempting, no doubt.

Only stock outside of the gold miners that hit my bottom ladder point and went through by 8%.Interesting to see how many others get down there.I havent bought any as ladders already bought last time and thats it now,so on that one a case of see if its around in 2028 and what price then.Its wiped out my SSE profit at the moment,but thats the way it goes in this game sometimes.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/13/euro-low-recession-fears-coronavirus-growth-ec-business-live

Love how they always look for reasons when something happens.Oil demand was always going to wobble this 6 months due to economic reasons.Oil is sticking at the $50 a barrel level a bit,my roadmap goes through that in a week and down to $43.Really hope that does happen,im buying oilies now but my main ladder buys are a bit lower down.

Its going to look bad for a lot of these asset heavy companies for a while and nerve is needed and careful slow buying.Id be very pleased if when things turn up i was down 15% before dividends.

 

[sancho panza]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Only stock outside of the gold miners that hit my bottom ladder point and went through by 8%.Interesting to see how many others get down there.I havent bought any as ladders already bought last time and thats it now,so on that one a case of see if its around in 2028 and what price then.Its wiped out my SSE profit at the moment,but thats the way it goes in this game sometimes.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/13/euro-low-recession-fears-coronavirus-growth-ec-business-live

Love how they always look for reasons when something happens.Oil demand was always going to wobble this 6 months due to economic reasons.Oil is sticking at the $50 a barrel level a bit,my roadmap goes through that in a week and down to $43.Really hope that does happen,im buying oilies now but my main ladder buys are a bit lower down.

Its going to look bad for a lot of these asset heavy companies for a while and nerve is needed and careful slow buying.Id be very pleased if when things turn up i was down 15% before dividends.

 

It is the way it goes.There's a tendency on forums like this for people to only mention their winners and that's what makes this thread a cut above as generally people fess up to their losers.Much as we're getting punished for falling into a value trap,I reflected on the mistakes I made taking us in and have improved as an investor as a result.

Biggest thing I've done ion the back of the CNA trade is develop the coma scale which has helped steer us towards shares that on the whole have outperformed their peers within ETF's.

Having said that,we've been here before and ended up in profit but  we went in way too heavy ,way too early.Would average down but we're at our limit.

Possible kitchen sinking for new CEO,rumoured to be Sarjit Sambhi.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/08/centricas-new-insider-boss-faces-debt-struggle/

[sancho panza]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Love how they always look for reasons when something happens.Oil demand was always going to wobble this 6 months due to economic reasons.Oil is sticking at the $50 a barrel level a bit,my roadmap goes through that in a week and down to $43.Really hope that does happen,im buying oilies now but my main ladder buys are a bit lower down.

Its going to look bad for a lot of these asset heavy companies for a while and nerve is needed and careful slow buying.Id be very pleased if when things turn up i was down 15% before dividends.

 

ref the oilies,RDSB down nicely today,BP too.We're steadily buying away.

Have to say though,there's some real downward momentum in oilies at the minute.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

It is the way it goes.There's a tendency on forums like this for people to only mention their winners and that's what makes this thread a cut above as generally people fess up to their losers.Much as we're getting punished for falling into a value trap,I reflected on the mistakes I made taking us in and have improved as an investor as a result.

Biggest thing I've done is develop the coma scale which has helped steer us towards shares that on the whole have outperformed their peers within ETF's.

Having said that,we've been here before and ended up in profit but  we went in way too heavy ,way too early.

Possible kitchen sinking for new CEO,rumoured to be Sarjit Sambhi.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/08/centricas-new-insider-boss-faces-debt-struggle/

Its whacked me for £5k+ after divis.Looking across my portfolio as its being rebuilt since i sold almost everything back in 16 etc.I have red shares showing combined losses of £27k and i have shares in profit showing £23k (a lot BAT again as i bought a lot at £24).Now of course every one of those reds is poor timing in theory.However i never dwell on it when building out.I stick to my ladders,ignore the emotion etc.I try to start buying when i think something is within 20% of a bottom,and my aim is always to be down a max of 15% before divis when ladders bought.However in the short term some go below as expected.

Im actually praying for losses in a lot of stocks im already holding as i have a lot of capital i need to deploy.This is the end of a long dis-inflation and it is and will be brutal.However nerve and diversified allocation should reward us greatly come 2024+

 

 

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its whacked me for £5k+ after divis.Looking across my portfolio as its being rebuilt since i sold almost everything back in 16 etc.I have red shares showing combined losses of £27k and i have shares in profit showing £23k (a lot BAT again as i bought a lot at £24).Now of course every one of those reds is poor timing in theory.However i never dwell on it when building out.I stick to my ladders,ignore the emotion etc.I try to start buying when i think something is within 20% of a bottom,and my aim is always to be down a max of 15% before divis when ladders bought.However in the short term some go below as expected.

Im actually praying for losses in a lot of stocks im already holding as i have a lot of capital i need to deploy.This is the end of a long dis-inflation and it is and will be brutal.However nerve and diversified allocation should reward us greatly come 2024+

 

 

I remember buying old economy stocks as I was selling tech stocks in 99 and people thought I was mad.It takes a lot of stomach to be contrarian but it's worked for us a few times buying the unloved and then selling them too early.....:-)

But we've held all our goldies to now,which we started buying in 2017 and am relatively happy with where we are given the volatility in the sectorand what a learning curve it's been.We're still about 45% cash and averaging into the oilies/oil services/potash as we go.Looking to get some more in PM's but the opportunities are more limited now.

I keep banging on about teh Broken Hill trade in 99/00 but it was one of the best in my time.On the look out for that sort of stock/sector.RDSB yielding 7.37% as of this morning.

News out of China getting worse this morning

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/coronavirus-death-toll-leaps-party-bosses-in-chinas-hubei-province-sacked-2083535

'BEIJING (Reuters) - The Chinese province at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak reported a record rise in deaths and thousands more cases on Thursday under a new diagnostic method, suggesting a much bigger crisis facing China and the world.

Asian stock markets wobbled and the safe-havens of the Japanese yen, gold and bonds rose after the new numbers from Hubei province dashed hopes the epidemic was stabilizing and the Chinese economy could bounce back quickly.'

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I stick to my ladders,ignore the emotion etc.

 

 

YEP, thats what i've just done, was always going on about in my head about buying more CNA when they were stuck around 69p for a while, i should of thought "Ya want to be greedy when others are fearful..." SO ...just bit the bullet AND bought my FINAL bundle @71p !

WARNING...as i've bought i'm 99% sure they are going down a bit more yet!

Besides i'm feeling in a good mood as the cashier in waitrose gave me the wrong change  (£6.30 too much) when i was getting my reductions last night, anyway loaded the car with the bargains and went back into waitrose and spent the surplus wrong change on BEER!

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its whacked me for £5k+ after divis.Looking across my portfolio as its being rebuilt since i sold almost everything back in 16 etc.I have red shares showing combined losses of £27k and i have shares in profit showing £23k (a lot BAT again as i bought a lot at £24).Now of course every one of those reds is poor timing in theory.However i never dwell on it when building out.I stick to my ladders,ignore the emotion etc.I try to start buying when i think something is within 20% of a bottom,and my aim is always to be down a max of 15% before divis when ladders bought.However in the short term some go below as expected.

Im actually praying for losses in a lot of stocks im already holding as i have a lot of capital i need to deploy.This is the end of a long dis-inflation and it is and will be brutal.However nerve and diversified allocation should reward us greatly come 2024+

 

 

I've been buying and banking profits, then buying again in the next dip.

The shares I bought last Friday aren't looking too good at the moment, mainly caused by CNA but I bought some more of it this morning. Overall it doesn't really owe me anything from some buy low, sell highs before. 

I feel like I'd got to start buying something as I'd got to 94% cash! (exc SIPP) Here's hoping for a huge crash.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been buying and banking profits, then buying again in the next dip.

The shares I bought last Friday aren't looking too good at the moment, mainly caused by CNA but I bought some more of it this morning. Overall it doesn't really owe me anything from some buy low, sell highs before. 

I feel like I'd got to start buying something as I'd got to 94% cash! (exc SIPP) Here's hoping for a huge crash.

Im at 56% cash now including that pension transfer (once it arrives) and thought that was high .We have a lot of old school companies down 60%/70%+ from highs already.Though they can be cut in half again of course.Brutal the falls in large parts of our market.

[BearyBear]

16 minutes ago, Tdog said:

See Javids resigned as chancellor ... will find out in the next few days if thats because he was wanting a so called Mansion tax as opposed to Boris wanting to give more money to people with mansions ... or vice versa.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-51487171

...and the GBP went up on that news!

[sancho panza]

hattip @BearyBear from the collapse thread.

Kyle Bass -intersting take on Hong Kong from April 2019 especially ref recent events in China

40 minutes but interesting.

Kyle's been wrong before especially on Japan back in the day but a very intelligent guy.

https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/interviews/videos/the-asymmetric-opportunity-revealed?source_collection=7cea12042a7641288bfae5344b63bd50

[headrow]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

ref the oilies,RDSB down nicely today,BP too.We're steadily buying away.

Have to say though,there's some real downward momentum in oilies at the minute.

 

 

BP and Shell both went ex-dividend today.

I want some more for that dividend but i'm sure there will be a better buying opportunity in the next 3 months.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

And with the advent of JIT production this problem becomes exacerbated as there will be no spare capacity/stock of parts to keep production going in the meantime.

Is there a international warehouse index? It would be interesting to see its trend line for previous 2 years, or go back earlier even as I believe the US began building its 'trade wall' against China during Obama's last term in office. Just that no one talked about it much back then. 

Anyone know some good (US and/or UK) warehouse company stocks?