Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

See Javids resigned as chancellor ... will find out in the next few days if thats because he was wanting a so called Mansion tax as opposed to Boris wanting to give more money to people with mansions ... or vice versa.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-51487171

Tdog, I want to be optimistic and I'm hoping its more because Javid wasn't radical enough (or dare I say it intelligent enough). We need real change and although I don't go in for Boris being merely the 'bumbling buffoon' type that media characterise him as being... I am however still suspicious of him being just an opportunist without depth (after all his family are all liberal types).    

As for the mansion tax, I don't think its only the Labour party that will be mooting wealth taxes in future years.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Tdog, I want to be optimistic and I'm hoping its more because Javid wasn't radical enough (or dare I say it intelligent enough). We need real change and although I don't go in for Boris being merely the 'bumbling buffoon' type that media characterise him as being... I am however still suspicious of him being merely an opportunist without depth (after all his family are all liberal types).    

Id wager he wanted cheaper house prices 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im at 56% cash now including that pension transfer (once it arrives) and thought that was high .We have a lot of old school companies down 60%/70%+ from highs already.Though they can be cut in half again of course.Brutal the falls in large parts of our market.

Some old school companies need to adapt? The net, review sites, price comparison sites, regulation, means taken for granted profits have to be worked harder for.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

Some old school companies need to adapt? The net, review sites, price comparison sites, regulation, means taken for granted profits have to be worked harder for.

Very true and some will never recover.Its a minefield and why im trying to focus back along the supply chain mostly.This Javid thing is interesting as well.Could be a crucial mistake by Boris this one as i think Javid understood the need for borrowing at 1% and investing before we cant.

[Democorruptcy]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Very true and some will never recover.Its a minefield and why im trying to focus back along the supply chain mostly.This Javid thing is interesting as well.Could be a crucial mistake by Boris this one as i think Javid understood the need for borrowing at 1% and investing before we cant.

Yes, post some of those supply chain tickers?

Was Javid pro or anti HS2? It's going to put more pressure on a chancellor for years to come.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Tdog said:

Pound has spiked, so presumably the markets think Boris is more for the bankers than the plebs.

Or less likely to borrow and spend.Javid kept mentioning we can borrow at 1% now and invest,he was right and we should be.If its because they want to tighten spending then we are in very serious trouble.Hard to judge why,but something to keep a close eye on.

[Democorruptcy]

New chancellor Rishi Sunak, ex Goldman Sachs, then hedge fund.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick presides over a multi-million property empire 

 

These people are in a position to rip the people of Britain a new one 

 

Seem sajid David wanted prudence and an end to the magicked up cash.

 

Hes gone. . Guess what his ex goldman sachs (just like carney) banker who's wealthier man most of the world is going to want..  

 

Holy fuck. This is mental. 

 

One out, one in 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yes, post some of those supply chain tickers?

Was Javid pro or anti HS2? It's going to put more pressure on a chancellor for years to come.

All the telcos,Vod,BT,Telia,Telefonica,most big oil,BP,Shell,Repsol (my fav oil), Equinor,service companies,Schlumberger,potash K+S,Mosaic ,chems OCI ,Evonik Industries,Norsk Hydro,gas transport Gaslog,,Vermillion Energy,Southwestern Energy Co ,

[Majorpain]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Or less likely to borrow and spend.Javid kept mentioning we can borrow at 1% now and invest,he was right and we should be.If its because they want to tighten spending then we are in very serious trouble.Hard to judge why,but something to keep a close eye on.

Rumours that they were happy for Javid to stay, but his special advisors were suspected of leaking so either they went or he did.

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

New chancellor Rishi Sunak, ex Goldman Sachs, then hedge fund.

He will go for free ports etc and pump money into the industrial areas i suspect.He is MP in the seat below me,and the Tories took the 3 Labour seats above him.Likely he will want to cement seats like that.As long as he prints and spends like crazy during a crisis it will do for us 

[JMD]

11 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Appointing on of their own, spect it was GS who were the advisers Boris wanted to appoint.

And Sunak's wife is the daughter of the founder of Infosys.. oh dear, couldn't make it up I suppose! 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

48 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Pound has spiked, so presumably the markets think Boris is more for the bankers than the plebs.

His family own a letting agency. 

They're all up to their necks in pwopatee. 

 

The chancellor bought himself a nice £1.5 million mansion oop North in 2015.

 

Cant tell me he's gonna sit back and watch that collapse in price. 

Rich men running the country for rich men. 

[Agent ZigZag]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

They're all up to their necks in pwopatee. 

 

The chancellor bought himself a nice £1.5 million mansion oop North in 2015.

 

Cant tell me he's gonna sit back and watch that collapse in price. 

Rich men running the country for rich men. 

All we can do then is try and get a piece of the action as to where the money goes. 

[JMD]

28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He will go for free ports etc and pump money into the industrial areas i suspect.He is MP in the seat below me,and the Tories took the 3 Labour seats above him.Likely he will want to cement seats like that.As long as he prints and spends like crazy during a crisis it will do for us 

DB, they are talking of doing up to a dozen of these 'Free Ports', I think this is the Singapore-on-Thames idea/jibe (depending on political viewpoint). Great for local employment and beneficial for companies who do locate for tax concessions.

But what is your take for the macro? Will it be just mostly relocation of existing companies, i.e. gaming the system? Or could this be a way of attracting massive inward investment, i.e. at the expense of the EU?

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

DB, they are talking of doing up to a dozen of these 'Free Ports', I think this is the Singapore-on-Thames idea/jibe (depending on political viewpoint). Great for local employment and beneficial for companies who do locate for tax concessions.

But what is your take for the macro? Will it be just mostly relocation of existing companies, i.e. gaming the system? Or could this be a way of attracting massive inward investment, i.e. at the expense of the EU?

 

 

 

Big investment i would think.You can import parts,make the item,then export,all tax free.

[kibuc]

A quick mining update from the last few days:

WDO - delivered yet another fantastic drilling update from Eagle River yesterday. Bonkers grades, bonkers widths, they'll be swimming in high-grade ounces for years to come.

PVG - posted 2020 guidance two days ago, grades nowhere near their reserve grade, fell like a rock and deservedly so. Expect a big cut to resources estimate in the future. Grades have been steadily falling for years now. Those guys are frauds. CEO and chief geologist out.

NGD - a bunch of releases yesterday and today: New Afton drillings, production, 2020 plan and guidance. As you would expect, everything not very impressive. Production guidance for Rainy River at 240-260k  Fourth quarter AISC at RR $2429/oz  Man they are so fucked that I can't even.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Man they are so fucked that I can't even.

I can't even either.  I just can't.  At least it was only a punt.

[Agent ZigZag]

Freeports do not have to be a port but can be an area.  I can see these being set up where manufacturing/production is already in place. In the North, Midlands and established areas. Belfast due to its strategic location post Brexit is a likely to become a Freeport attracting firms that in turn will help the local economy. As its port is unable to accommodate the larger cargo ships that will mean the Port of Liverpool will do well as a feeder connection point. Most of our imports come in through Felixstowe, London Gate and Southampton. I read somewhere that over 70% of that cargo is destined for the north that in turn creates a huge carbon foot print in road haulage. I can see Northern ports being used more that will reduce the carbon foot print. In turn warehousing in the Midlands and the North are likely to do well  even more so if the government spends money on improving the Northern transport infrastructure system

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

All the telcos,Vod,BT,Telia,Telefonica,most big oil,BP,Shell,Repsol (my fav oil), Equinor,service companies,Schlumberger,potash K+S,Mosaic ,chems OCI ,Evonik Industries,Norsk Hydro,gas transport Gaslog,,Vermillion Energy,Southwestern Energy Co ,

I've been reading up on VOD.

Apparently the governbankment's decision to drop to partial Huawei cost VOD £200m to rip equipment out. If any EU country has a wholesale ban on Huawei then that will cost VOD more. They have 66% of their revenue from the Europe (not inc 13% UK)

https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/home-banner/vodafone-to-rip-huawei-kit-from-europe-core-networks/

 

Re telcos in general that thing I posted about the new age for a phone is 10 years old, shows they aren't going away. However at the moment there seems to be a price war going on for broadband/mobile etc. More competition in Europe?

Quote

Europe and America have similarly sized telecom markets. But while Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Sprint generate almost all of the U.S. wireless industry's revenue, Europe has more than 100 telecom firms spread across its member states, which are reluctant to give up control overseeing their own industries.

https://simplysafedividends.com/intelligent-income/posts/230

It will be interesting to see what happens re Brexit and competition rules, e.g. the EU blocked Three buying O2. Can they still do that next year? If not we might see consolidation of firms?

Disclosure: I own some VOD.

[spygirl]

On 15/01/2020 at 15:53, JMD said:

DB, did you see Monday's Panorama 'How to save the High-Street', it featured Stockton-on-Tees (and I thought of you, but not in weird way!), where its council is spending £25m doing up an old theatre to create a new events venue complex that it would then own and run (a significant policy change in itself I think). The council is borrowing and spending big so fits with this blog's ethos. They also spoke about changing retail to residential (above the shops, etc).

But I wonder - do you have any practical thoughts on high-street regeneration? I think I recall you having mentioned how council services, etc, will be moved into the high-street. But i'm thinking more specifically about how might us ordinary folk benefit from this massive? inward investment into our own high-streets(back-yards)? Obviously location is important. Perhaps with more amenities/pleasant green areas, a return to operating a business and living 'above the shop' wouldn't be a bad option for many small entrepreneur types? (i'm hoping the residential developments wouldn't necessarily be rammed packed with HA/council tenants?).

 

What are others thoughts on the potential live/work opportunites on our re-inflated/regenerated high-streets?  (nb, not just idly asking here, as I am looking an investment project that fits with the investment cycle we are about to enter)       

  

Just a minute.

Its stopped raining.

Guys are swimming.

Guys are sailing 

.....

https://www.stockton.gov.uk/news/2020/february/plans-unveiled-for-stockton-town-centre-after-massive-response-to-public-consultation/?fbclid=IwAR2A_HF910bLrf90UjddsVNsYg4VNMx7ECt-e_RNyJa478J0-0MEy06oZNM

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Or less likely to borrow and spend.Javid kept mentioning we can borrow at 1% now and invest,he was right and we should be.If its because they want to tighten spending then we are in very serious trouble.Hard to judge why,but something to keep a close eye on.

Just seen an city analyst interviewed who said Javid wanted to balance the books, i.e. to add more Police, more Nurses, more anything else, other departments had to make cuts to pay for it. Now it's believed the new chancellor will just spend, spend, spend. 

[Harley]

Been a bit busy lately for a variety of reasons.  The virus has been a bit of a catalyst to get quite a few outstanding items done, as has been a number of local thefts and the recent storm damage.  I've been investing alright but by spending cash on important, tangible things.  Plus learning a lot of new and relevant things. 

Anyways, I'm now getting back to this financial malarkey and have just been grazing over the monthly charts to get an initial gut feel.  Things look really exciting at last, given the lack of churn over the last few years.  The virus may be a black swan, and the impact on supply chains great, but changes (retrenchment of globalisation, fiscal end game, etc) have been underway for a while now.  Virus apart, these are exciting times chart wise.  I'm looking at strengths and weaknesses suggesting more than ever the baton is being past between sectors and companies.

Plenty of due diligence to do over the next few weeks but this is probably where I'll start putting some serious money to work, with a few initial stakes first.  Past posts on this thread will be key.  The markets will no doubt be tough, but for already seeded reasons beyond the current virus threat.  But I'll rather be further invested than heavily in cash which also has its risks. 

We seem to be in the classic slack water moment when multiple currents start changing and people look to explain things in a superficial manner, usually looking at cause and effect the wrong way round, and usually under the veil of some big ticket simplistic event like the virus.  So a lot of noise to come with the fog of war and all that where your training and discipline gives you an edge.

PS: Alas I need to venture out to a highish risk area so this may all be in vain!

[JMD]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Big investment i would think.You can import parts,make the item,then export,all tax free.

Given that the EU wouldn't allow us these free ports - I assume a no-deal Brexit is a very real possibility? 

Interesting times ahead come end of year (...or is it just a Boris bargaining ploy?)

[Agent ZigZag]

Monday, February 10, 2020

UK Port and Property Company Sells Major Stake as Growth of Online Shopping Causes ProblemsHigh Street Woes Come Home to Roost for Investors with Sale to Pension Managers

UK – AUSTRALIA – Since the Robert Maxwell affair, the matters surrounding the large pension funds, which so many companies manage on behalf of staff, are always subject to scrutiny. Now according to a Sunday Telegraph article Peel Ports, the second largest such UK company, is apparently to divest itself of 25% of the group to Australia's biggest pension fund manager, AustralianSuper.

There is no mention of the possible deal on the Peel Ports website but, according to the report, the sale of shares by Peel Ports, which is partially owned by John Whittaker, the billionaire real estate tycoon behind Manchester’s Trafford Centre, and Deutsche Bank investment arm DWS, also attracted interest from a number of other international funds as part of a process which was run collaboratively by Rothschild and Linklaters.

The silence on the deal from all sides is deafening but the Melbourne headquartered fund manager is said to hold retirement investments for one in every ten Aussie workers. The sale is part of a flurry of activity by Whittaker who it is claimed is not only selling off the Peel Ports portfolio, a company which has interests in property and infrastructure as well as its holdings in Medway, Clyde and Liverpool ports facilities.

Whittaker’s problems have evolved after the change in the high street rental climate where his Intu group has been suffering a cash shortage following body blows such as the difficulties at Debenhams and Arcadia, which are in turn struggling with the falling footfall in their stores, a problem linked to burgeoning online shopping habits.

Intu shares are down 88% from a year ago and Whittaker has also recently sold off a 35% share in Liverpool’s John Lennon Airport to another fund manager, Ancala Partners.Peel Ports reported revenues of £760 million in 2019, growth of 6% from 2018’s figures with pre-tax earnings of £257 million.

More on Freeports - Is the Northern Power house going to take shape.?

 

US AMBASSADOR VISITS PORT OF LIVERPOOL


Liverpool’s importance in the future of transatlantic trade received a major endorsement today (Tuesday 11 February) with a visit from the US ambassador to the UK to discuss commercial opportunities.

Robert Wood Johnson was making his first trip to the UK’s only west-facing deep-sea container terminal, where he was joined by several leading companies already involved in trade with North America.

Ambassador Johnson said: “It was an honour to visit Peel Ports Liverpool, a historic port with a very bright future. This was an opportunity to tour an amazing facility and meet with representatives from important transatlantic companies such as Cargill, ADM, ACL and Jenkins.

“President Trump is committed to striking a broad, comprehensive free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. Cutting-edge deep water ports like Liverpool2 will be the gateway for the increased trade, investment and jobs this agreement will bring both our countries.”

Mark Whitworth, Peel Ports CEO, said: “Liverpool is the UK’s foremost port and is ideally positioned for increased trade with the US and indeed the rest of the Americas. It has the relevant investment and infrastructure to make it the UK’s most important and valuable trade link to take our commercial activities across the Atlantic to a new level.

“As we look ahead to a post-Brexit future, we must make the most of trade opportunities across the Atlantic for the sake of our economy and the Liverpool area is ideally placed to support a positive future for the nation’s import and export activity. Attention has inevitably turned west and we are ready to play our part in ensuring a positive future for UK plc.”

The visit comes days after the UK Government launched its consultation setting out its vision for Freeports. The consultation’s findings will determine which locations could become Freeports at the end of this year, with a view to those sites being open for business in 2021.

The visit was also attended by food and agricultural goods manufacturer Cargill, agricultural bulks distributor ADM, shipping services provider Jenkins Group and shipping line ACL.