Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

They look like a good investment at that dividend and price - have you got any TLW?

NO but I've got a shitload of cash just dunno what to do with it!!  Hookers and blow before the plague arrives? 

[Loki]

@DurhamBorn do you have any thoughts on Tullow, and would buying BP and Tullow be considered too much of one sector? Your reply for info only and i will consult a financial advisor of course

[CVG]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

 I still miss it at times though, like smoking!

If I get a terminal diagnosis then that's the first thing I'll be doing again!

[CVG]

33 minutes ago, confused said:

Ok I'm confused again 

Is this what you're buying and why is the total dividend only $1.88? Which is echoed on Shells own website too

Yep. They pay $1.88 (say £1.45) for every share you own per year (in 4 instalments). So roughly £1.45 divided by share price £18.22 is 8%.

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, CVG said:

If I get a terminal diagnosis then that's the first thing I'll be doing again!

Forget the fags, try shagging on grass instead 

4 minutes ago, CVG said:

Yep. They pay $1.88 (say £1.45) for every share you own per year (in 4 instalments). So roughly £1.45 divided by share price £18.22 is 8%.

thanks, should have got my calculator out before posting 

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Well much to my surprise it hit me hard at 50 and not the expected 40.  Very well done at 49.  Time is very precious, although traditional work can (used to be?) fun until it's not!  Like Forest Gump, I just suddenly gave up the running one day and went off to do something else without the bells and whistles.  I used to fret about how traditional work would end and whether I had the guts and then it just happened.  Surreal.  I still miss it at times though, like smoking!

Ditto, just waiting to make the break, have a bit of thinking time/contemplation, and then put any ideas into action.

[Craig]

1 hour ago, confused said:

NO but I've got a shitload of cash just dunno what to do with it!!  Hookers and blow before the plague arrives? 

That'd be a good way of speeding up the arrival of the plague, I'd imagine.

[sleepwello'nights]

13 minutes ago, Craig said:

That'd be a good way of speeding up the arrival of the plague, I'd imagine.

Brings a new dimension to the description " super spreader." 

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

This thread has inspired me to quit leasing and drive 10y old Clio my mother sold me.  By buying it, I have already paid less than the lease for the last 6 months would have cost me. 

I had Golf R before but after a while realised that its horsepower is being completely wasted on me as there are 3 main states:

- Parked

- Stuck in traffic

- Constant speed on motorway

None of the above require 300bhp, plus passengers hated the acceleration that I liked so much.

 

Exactly and thats great to hear.I paid £5000 for my Pug at 5 years old,and iv averaged £220 a year on repairs.So if i assume its now worthless and depreciated to zero its cost me £883 a year or £15.95 a week.

Im going to try to get as long as i can out of it though.Iv got a spare Pug on the drive as well,its an 07 diesel estate i paid a grand for,but it hardly get driven.I only use it to pick up things i buy off Facebook marketplace etc as so if my other one does die i have one sat,plus its a spare for all the family if needed,my dad covers the insurance on it.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

@DurhamBorn do you have any thoughts on Tullow, and would buying BP and Tullow be considered too much of one sector? Your reply for info only and i will consult a financial advisor of course

I prefer BP,Shell and Repsol with Equinor thrown in to be honest.Im not chasing one that might bounce higher in the sector,i want to secure strong dividends and growth for the cycle.I think the sector should be around 20% of a portfolio for the coming cycle spread mostly in big oil with a few smaller gas plays and Schlumberger.

[Barnsey]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My son has had an offer accepted today on a lovely 3 bed semi £120k.They have £20k to put down so borrowing £100k,they are going to get a 10 year fix.No penalties to leave after 5 years and 5%,4%,3%,2%,1% first 5 years.10% over payments allowed with no penalty,hes also been buying a lot of silver.He is going to keep the silver until 2027/28 unless it ever equals the mortgage amount then he will sell and pay off the mortgage.They will try to pay chunks off each year.I like the fact after 5 years they have another 5 years fixed at these rates,but can re-mortgage at any time.That gives them a 2nd five year window to pay down,pay off,or re fix if they want to.If rates are where they are now then they will simply re-fix and carry on paying off.If im right on the cycle and rates end up at 8%+ then his silver should of bagged enough to clear the mortgage.

Id expect the house they have got might go down £20k in a big sell off,its at 2003 price now and in an area where they sell very easily.If it had gone up with inflation from 2003 it would be around £200k now so inflation adjusted thats a big fall since 2003.

That's flipping briliant, just found it (TSB?). Wasn't aware those kind of deals were out there so thanks for the heads up! 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

If I get a terminal diagnosis then that's the first thing I'll be doing again!

Eff work!

[nirvana]

@DurhamBorn found an auction, it's tonight!

What's this area like? https://www.auctionhouse.co.uk/northeast/auction/lot/101553

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Ditto, just waiting to make the break, have a bit of thinking time/contemplation, and then put any ideas into action.

I mostly seem to have stopped at the thinking time/contemplation stage, with a little bit of work on the side.  I used to beat myself up rotten for being so "lazy" but my detox is now fully complete!

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

That's flipping briliant, just found it (TSB?). Wasn't aware those kind of deals were out there so thanks for the heads up! 

Thats the one,i think its a great deal Barnsey.I really like the fact after 5 years your fixed for another 5 but with no tie.Thats a superb position.It pretty much means you have a 5 year window to re fix again.

You have to pay an early repayment charge from 5% down to 1% for the first 5 years,but thats fair enough.It also allows 10% over payments a year as well.

The interest works out about £250 a month i think for them,as the rest is capital repayment.If rates do end up at say 8% in 8 years then his silver might be around what they still owe,or at least well over half,so they can clear that then.House was built 1979, in the best area of my town.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, confused said:

@DurhamBorn found an auction, it's tonight!

What's this area like? https://www.auctionhouse.co.uk/northeast/auction/lot/101553

Depends if you want to live near me or not .It on a good estate,but right next to a council estate as in the next street.

[sancho panza]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I prefer BP,Shell and Repsol with Equinor thrown in to be honest.Im not chasing one that might bounce higher in the sector,i want to secure strong dividends and growth for the cycle.I think the sector should be around 20% of a portfolio for the coming cycle spread mostly in big oil with a few smaller gas plays and Schlumberger.

worth noting that XES/OIH (oil services ETF's ) got hit heavily paritucalrly yesterady,the ones with better coma scale scores stood up better eg SLB/BH/KMI.Going to be interesting where XES bottoms.Decent mulitbag opportunity looming there imho.

Takent eh decision yesterady that we're going to sell our newmont holding today,looks toppy,redeploy into some of the few (imho) undervalued PM miner plays.

Also,going to top up EQNR,BP,RDSB,XOM,REP as well.I think we'll be roughly 35-40% big oil by the time this bottoms(if it does lol).XOM and EQNR are both below their 2009 lows.EQNR only 2 bucks above 2015 low.

Debating whether to offload our sole decent size copper play FCX to try and buy back lower.Chinese govt is going to come out printing at full speed after this.Interesting opportunity here possibly

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

worth noting that XES/OIH (oil services ETF's ) got hit heavily paritucalrly yesterady,the ones with better coma scale scores stood up better eg SLB/BH/KMI.Going to be interesting where XES bottoms.Decent mulitbag opportunity looming there imho.

Takent eh decision yesterady that we're going to sell our newmont holding today,looks toppy,redeploy into some of the few (imho) undervalued PM miner plays.

Also,going to top up EQNR,BP,RDSB,XOM,REP as well.I think we'll be roughly 35-40% big oil by the time this bottoms(if it does lol).XOM and EQNR are both below their 2009 lows.EQNR only 2 bucks above 2015 low.

Debating whether to offload our sole decent size copper play FCX to try and buy back lower.Chinese govt is going to come out printing at full speed after this.Interesting opportunity here possibly

If i was younger SP id be leaning more to the service sector as you say for the chance of big capital gains.However im trying to buy the big oilies that would still do ok with hydrogen as i think there is a good chance thats where we are heading.

[Barnsey]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats the one,i think its a great deal Barnsey.I really like the fact after 5 years your fixed for another 5 but with no tie.Thats a superb position.It pretty much means you have a 5 year window to re fix again.

You have to pay an early repayment charge from 5% down to 1% for the first 5 years,but thats fair enough.It also allows 10% over payments a year as well.

The interest works out about £250 a month i think for them,as the rest is capital repayment.If rates do end up at say 8% in 8 years then his silver might be around what they still owe,or at least well over half,so they can clear that then.House was built 1979, in the best area of my town.

I'm currently looking at houses I can afford to pay off fully on a 10 year fix, but ideally pay off sooner which I thought would mean I'd have to go for a 7 year fix, but this kind of deal is perfect as provides ample flexibility either way. Here's hoping it sticks around for a few more months.

[nirvana]

Exxon down 5%!! Divi looks shit so I'm not buying 

Decided I'll take a first stab at Shell at 1700p and if they drop the divi in the future I'l blame @Cattle Prod 

Looks like things could get even shittier this week.....where's me popcorn....

[kibuc]

9 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I'm currently looking at houses I can afford to pay off fully on a 10 year fix, but ideally pay off sooner which I thought would mean I'd have to go for a 7 year fix, but this kind of deal is perfect as provides ample flexibility either way. Here's hoping it sticks around for a few more months.

It surprises me that you guys are planning to get a cheap long-term fix and then still overpay it. Surely, the main benefit of securing a low-cost long-term loan is that you can put your own money to some better use?

My plan was to get a 10y fix at some point as well but pay the lowest amount possible to the bank and put cash in reflations stock instead, so I can pay off the entire remaining balance (and then some!) once the fix ends.

[Democorruptcy]

52 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Also,going to top up EQNR,BP,RDSB,XOM,REP as well.I think we'll be roughly 35-40% big oil by the time this bottoms(if it does lol).XOM and EQNR are both below their 2009 lows.EQNR only 2 bucks above 2015 low.

 Your looking at this $ EQUINOR ASA (EQNR) SPONSORED ADR EACH REP 1 ORD

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/equinor-asa-sponsored-adr-each-rep-1-ord/share-charts 

Not this NOK EQUINOR ASA (EQNR) NOR COM 2.5

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/equinor-asa-nor-com-2.5

[Harley]

Yeh, Card Factory 0.03% up.  Hope you've all stockpiled your get well cards!

[Barnsey]

54 minutes ago, kibuc said:

It surprises me that you guys are planning to get a cheap long-term fix and then still overpay it. Surely, the main benefit of securing a low-cost long-term loan is that you can put your own money to some better use?

My plan was to get a 10y fix at some point as well but pay the lowest amount possible to the bank and put cash in reflations stock instead, so I can pay off the entire remaining balance (and then some!) once the fix ends.

Depends how bad you think things will be towards the end of this decade? I'm more concerned with having a permanent, fully paid off roof over my head as soon as possible, ideally by the end of the next cycle when the big kahuna arrives (if you're of that belief, fourth turning etc). If you want to benefit from the reflation cycle ahead I would have thought you really need to have the funds in place for it over the next year or so at the latest, once things run I can't see myself investing heavily into a bull market.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

I'm currently looking at houses I can afford to pay off fully on a 10 year fix, but ideally pay off sooner which I thought would mean I'd have to go for a 7 year fix, but this kind of deal is perfect as provides ample flexibility either way. Here's hoping it sticks around for a few more months.

Amazing.  Not something you'd hear said down South!