Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Barnsey]

Just now, Harley said:

Amazing.  Not something you'd hear said down South!

Hence my move up north (well, North Midlands), better late than never!

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

If i was younger SP id be leaning more to the service sector as you say for the chance of big capital gains.However im trying to buy the big oilies that would still do ok with hydrogen as i think there is a good chance thats where we are heading.

as I was telling CP last week-in a rare bout of good timing on my part-,we sold up our FCG/XOP/XES trades,bought some goldies and some big oil with the proceeds and kept some spare.

I jsut felt that the opportunitires presenting themselves in big oil were too good to jsutfiy trading Concho/Continetnal/SLB/BH/Tenaris/Helix etc etc.

Plan B -ie if there is no weak dollar phase and exit point is to sit in these shares for a decade.I'm comfortable with that.

On another matter DB,you got a view on copper? I'm wodnering if there's a dip before the Chinese govt gets going?

@Harley I'd have picked RMV,BDEV,TSLA,BKGH and PSn for shorts over the last two months.Lucky I pakced it all in to go Uni in Dec.....Strange market this one.The faith in the dark side of the tories(aka the Housebuilder shareholders) is strong.

[sancho panza]

17 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Depends how bad you think things will be towards the end of this decade? I'm more concerned with having a permanent, fully paid off roof over my head as soon as possible, ideally by the end of the next cycle when the big kahuna arrives (if you're of that belief, fourth turning etc). If you want to benefit from the reflation cycle ahead I would have thought you really need to have the funds in place for it over the next year or so at the latest, once things run I can't see myself investing heavily into a bull market.

That's the problem with this gold bull.There's little value left.Psychologically hard to commit new capital imho

40 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

 Your looking at this $ EQUINOR ASA (EQNR) SPONSORED ADR EACH REP 1 ORD

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/equinor-asa-sponsored-adr-each-rep-1-ord/share-charts 

Not this NOK EQUINOR ASA (EQNR) NOR COM 2.5

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/equinor-asa-nor-com-2.5

Yes the ADR,it's a dollar trade for me so not really interested in the kronor version which is hard to buy anyway.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

It surprises me that you guys are planning to get a cheap long-term fix and then still overpay it. Surely, the main benefit of securing a low-cost long-term loan is that you can put your own money to some better use?

My plan was to get a 10y fix at some point as well but pay the lowest amount possible to the bank and put cash in reflations stock instead, so I can pay off the entire remaining balance (and then some!) once the fix ends.

That's the spirit K,back yourself.We're renting and likely to stay so while the yield is sub 3.5%

next rung up the ladder is circa 2.5% gross yield.

[DurhamBorn]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

as I was telling CP last week-in a rare bout of good timing on my part-,we sold up our FCG/XOP/XES trades,bought some goldies and some big oil with the proceeds and kept some spare.

I jsut felt that the opportunitires presenting themselves in big oil were too good to jsutfiy trading Concho/Continetnal/SLB/BH/Tenaris/Helix etc etc.

Plan B -ie if there is no weak dollar phase and exit point is to sit in these shares for a decade.I'm comfortable with that.

On another matter DB,you got a view on copper? I'm wodnering if there's a dip before the Chinese govt gets going?

@Harley I'd have picked RMV,BDEV,TSLA,BKGH and PSn for shorts over the last two months.Lucky I pakced it all in to go Uni in Dec.....Strange market this one.The faith in the dark side of the tories(aka the Housebuilder shareholders) is strong.

Iv done zero work on copper and im not buying anything in the sector at the moment,or planning to.I think the sentiment is that bad in the oil sector that it requires most of the focus at the moment.The fact i cant buy COPEX anymore meant iv ignored the sector to be honest.

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Yes the ADR,it's a dollar trade for me so not really interested in the kronor version which is hard to buy anyway.

I'd just looked at it after DB mentioned it. I'd looked at the NOK and thought it looked surprisingly high. Then read your comment about back to 2009 which is correct in USD but it's +50% in NOK.

This buying foreign shares business might need a bit more thought.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

It surprises me that you guys are planning to get a cheap long-term fix and then still overpay it. Surely, the main benefit of securing a low-cost long-term loan is that you can put your own money to some better use?

My plan was to get a 10y fix at some point as well but pay the lowest amount possible to the bank and put cash in reflations stock instead, so I can pay off the entire remaining balance (and then some!) once the fix ends.

 If it was for myself thats exactly what id be doing kibuc.However with it being my son i look at it that he will already have a 3rd of my assets invested in those areas as when i die he will get them.At the moment if i died now it would easily cover buying a house outright for all my 3 children.He also has around £16k in silver,and the plan is if inflation does run that should at some point cover the outstanding mortgage and he can sell and pay it off,or sell and pay a lot off.If silver doesnt run,then its likely inflation hasnt and rates stay low for longer.

My portfolio is big enough for me now,in that i dont need to grow it,i just need to try to keep up with inflation.However i do expect it will likely perform well over the cycle,and i might then transfer some assets to me kids,though i prefer to do that inside a trust really.

[JMD]

29 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'd have picked RMV, BDEV, TSLA, BKGH and PSn for shorts over the last two months. Lucky I packed it all in to go Uni in Dec.....Strange market this one. The faith in the dark side of the tories (aka the Housebuilder shareholders) is strong.

SP, I agree, and that was the main reason behind my (long, rambling?) post of yesterday... i.e. I'm fascinated in what sectors (including the 'how', see post) the government might pump over coming years. I don't think you can have too many reflation irons (options) in the coming fire (storm).

...being nosey, what's the Uni course? (also being bit mercenary, will we here gain from your xtra-skills!)

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

It surprises me that you guys are planning to get a cheap long-term fix and then still overpay it. Surely, the main benefit of securing a low-cost long-term loan is that you can put your own money to some better use?

My plan was to get a 10y fix at some point as well but pay the lowest amount possible to the bank and put cash in reflations stock instead, so I can pay off the entire remaining balance (and then some!) once the fix ends.

I am overpaying my mortgage to minimise risk. I have a decent portfolio and you are correct that I could probably do better putting the money into reflation stocks, but I just see it as another part of my diversification strategy. If I was in London and renting then I would probably have a cash emergency fund, forgo a deposit and use all excess to invest.

[reformed nice guy]

57 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

On another matter DB,you got a view on copper? I'm wodnering if there's a dip before the Chinese govt gets going?

I wanted some copper exposure a few years ago and I bought KAZ. I cant show my working, but it seemed the best at the time. There have been some talk about corruption etc but thats probably par for the course

[JMD]

21 hours ago, Harley said:

OK everyone, just back from prepping on the slooooow supermarket website and see it's game on.

@JMD, I want gravy, nice thick gravy.  Find out where the government's gravy's going and let's get on board.

Me, I'm off to smooch some civi servants and polos to make more moooney than you motlies combined (plus get the keys to my NZ bolt hole).

Let's kill it before this nancy virus does!

Harley, but surely you were already fully 'prepped', what with your oil and wood store, etc? I bet last weeks news about the banning of wet-wood/coal bought a smile to your face!

...government 'gravy', indeed yes, or follow-the-money as others say. I just thought some ideas/thoughts on the subject might be interesting to hear - however, with the market action currently happening at the moment - I guess I agree that now is probably not the time to dwell on where our dear government will be spending our money. I think i'll try to revisit the topic later on though as I do find the ideas expressed here valuable and inspirational.

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I prefer BP,Shell and Repsol with Equinor thrown in to be honest.Im not chasing one that might bounce higher in the sector,i want to secure strong dividends and growth for the cycle.I think the sector should be around 20% of a portfolio for the coming cycle spread mostly in big oil with a few smaller gas plays and Schlumberger.

Is Halliburton similar to Schlumberger DB, is that one to be avoided 

[kibuc]

@Barnsey @DurhamBorn @reformed nice guy I get your point about the value of secure roof over your head and the need to diversify your risks.

Being located in the London fallout zone and with only five digits to my name, I can't fool myself that I'll ever save enough to buy a family home here and help my own kids financially in the future. If I don't go in big I might just as well not even try, accept renting forever (or until my SIPP becomes accessible) and spend that money on hookers, blow and a BMW while I'm still relatively young.

[Talking Monkey]

12 minutes ago, kibuc said:

@Barnsey @DurhamBorn @reformed nice guy I get your point about the value of secure roof over your head and the need to diversify your risks.

Being located in the London fallout zone and with only five digits to my name, I can't fool myself that I'll ever save enough to buy a family home here and help my own kids financially in the future. If I don't go in big I might just as well not even try, accept renting forever (or until my SIPP becomes accessible) and spend that money on hookers, blow and a BMW while I'm still relatively young.

Good solid back up plan that

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

On another matter DB,you got a view on copper?

Sold my physical yesterday at a loss so should be good to go now!

35 minutes ago, JMD said:

Harley, but surely you were already fully 'prepped', what with your oil and wood store, etc? I bet last weeks news about the banning of wet-wood/coal bought a smile to your face!

...government 'gravy', indeed yes, or follow-the-money as others say. I just thought some ideas/thoughts on the subject might be interesting to hear - however, with the market action currently happening at the moment - I guess I agree that now is probably not the time to dwell on where our dear government will be spending our money. I think i'll try to revisit the topic later on though as I do find the ideas expressed here valuable and inspirational.

Your fired!

[Castlevania]

54 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

If I was in London and renting then I would probably have a cash emergency fund, forgo a deposit and use all excess to invest.

This is me

[janch]

15 hours ago, Simon said:

Good for you, I’m similar age, work part time and never want to go back to full time again, nor pay income tax to subsidise scoundrels. Think it’s as much about finally waking up as a crisis.

My father dropped dead at 49 and this prompted me to stop work as soon as I could even if my finances weren't brilliant.  I was lucky in that I could downsize my house and release some cash which I lived on frugally for about six years until my state pension kicked in. Living simply is where it's at.

[Hardhat]

47 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

This is me

Same, although realistically I will probably use (some of?) the investments to buy a property at some point (not necessarily in London). Also I'm early 30s and only recently started earning enough to save/invest meaningfully really, so working on different timescales to many on this thread.

[headrow]

I have 17k of cash in my stocks & share ISA , decided i'm going to buy 1k of stock each day for the next 17 trading days in companies i already own. I'm only paying £5.95 a trade.

 

Just bought Shell @ 1799

[kibuc]

Hot damn!

New Gold Announces $300 Million Partnership With Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan at the New Afton Mine Adding Significant Financial Flexibility

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1255-tsx/ngd/73661-new-gold-announces-300-million-partnership-with-ontario-teachers-pension-plan-at-the-new-afton-mine-adding-significant-financial-flexibility.html

 

New Gold just got $300mil injection.

 

And, more interestingly - a pension plan (I realize they are much more, but hey) buying future cash flow from a mine? Those guys must be desparate for yield.

 

Anyway, looks like NG found a way out of the bankruptcy death spiral, possibly.

 

[Bricormortis]

On Bullionbypost home page there is a sticky about high demand allegedly affecting dispatch times. ( G and S pulling back though from yesterdays prices )

 

[janch]

Otavio Costa again:     (I think he meant to type stars not starts!)

 

 

Gold.

 

Miners-to-stocks ratio now breaking out.

 

Meanwhile: Yield curve inversions just climbed to 60%!

 

The Fed is trapped. Further monetary easing is inevitable.

 

All starts aligned for precious metals.

 

 

6:45 pm · 24 Feb 2020·Twitter Web App

[nirvana]

OK citizens, players et al  here's my TA (technical analysis) on USOIL.........interesting levels at around 49.5 and 42.5 

 

[nirvana]

45 minutes ago, headrow said:

I have 17k of cash in my stocks & share ISA , decided i'm going to buy 1k of stock each day for the next 17 trading days in companies i already own. I'm only paying £5.95 a trade.

 

Just bought Shell @ 1799

Brave man, good luck! Me be walking around like.....

 

[Loki]

43 minutes ago, kibuc said:

New Gold

 

Up 15%! It has a lot of work to do but this is the most positive sign for a long time.