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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Hot damn!

New Gold Announces $300 Million Partnership With Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan at the New Afton Mine Adding Significant Financial Flexibility

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1255-tsx/ngd/73661-new-gold-announces-300-million-partnership-with-ontario-teachers-pension-plan-at-the-new-afton-mine-adding-significant-financial-flexibility.html

 

New Gold just got $300mil injection.

 

And, more interestingly - a pension plan (I realize they are much more, but hey) buying future cash flow from a mine? Those guys must be desparate for yield.

 

Anyway, looks like NG found a way out of the bankruptcy death spiral, possibly.

 

Good news! Thanks for posting :)

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3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Is Halliburton similar to Schlumberger DB, is that one to be avoided 

Yes,i just like the fact Schlumberger pay divis and also have moved away from shale.

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3 hours ago, janch said:

My father dropped dead at 49 and this prompted me to stop work as soon as I could even if my finances weren't brilliant.  I was lucky in that I could downsize my house and release some cash which I lived on frugally for about six years until my state pension kicked in. Living simply is where it's at.

Completely, totally, 100% agree. Life is very short. My parents are still alive and do OK for money. Yet their lives are total misery. My mother has total hypochondria and buys shit online every day. They barely go out and haven’t seen the only grandchild they will ever have for nearly 2 years. Money and longevity aren’t always what they seem. You can live well simply.

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17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My last job i had the 2nd oldest car in the car park and that really upset me,over 700 cars and yet someone had an older one.My old Pug has been a hell of a car.2.0l diesel of course and still pulls like a train.Very little wear on the engine,though very slight smoke on ignition now for a few seconds, so tiny amount of oil maybe getting into the piston chambers.The drivers seat is like leather now though and my partner shakes her head every time she gets in it,and avoids it if she can xD ,iv accepted the fact that the day is coming when i have to say goodbye,but il do my best to keep her going.I think its cost me about £14 a week since i bought it if its worthless now.If i can keep it at that,so spending say £500 a year keeping it on the road il be happy.

Excellent job. When I went part time managed to get a job within walking distance so can walk when my wife can’t give me a lift on the way to her part time job. Cars are a drain, running one is a lot better than 2.

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Does anyone know why I am having trouble accessing information on Sibayne Gold the last two days? HL has lost pricing information and even Stockopedia isn't finding the stock. Ta.

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2 minutes ago, CVG said:

Does anyone know why I am having trouble accessing information on Sibayne Gold the last two days? HL has lost pricing information and even Stockopedia isn't finding the stock. Ta.

They are doing a corporate restructuring so the ADR's got withdrawn and reissued with a new name.

II sent me a message saying the new ADR's will be in my account when they receive them from the custodian.

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6 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

They are doing a corporate restructuring so the ADR's got withdrawn and reissued with a new name.

II sent me a message saying the new ADR's will be in my account when they receive them from the custodian.

Thank you very much Mp!

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10 hours ago, Harley said:

I mostly seem to have stopped at the thinking time/contemplation stage, with a little bit of work on the side.  I used to beat myself up rotten for being so "lazy" but my detox is now fully complete!

I think that's just as important as the financials when planning for retirement...what you are going to do to replace the time spent not working...must be a bit of a shocker to the system when you have at least another forty hours of leisure time to fill.

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats the one,i think its a great deal Barnsey.I really like the fact after 5 years your fixed for another 5 but with no tie.Thats a superb position.It pretty much means you have a 5 year window to re fix again.

You have to pay an early repayment charge from 5% down to 1% for the first 5 years,but thats fair enough.It also allows 10% over payments a year as well.

The interest works out about £250 a month i think for them,as the rest is capital repayment.If rates do end up at say 8% in 8 years then his silver might be around what they still owe,or at least well over half,so they can clear that then.House was built 1979, in the best area of my town.

So initially I thought about this and how it may be better for someone with lots of cash to actually have a mortgage and use surplus to invest in S&S...but then realise that the bank/bs can probably `call time` on you whenever they like, and at short notice (1 month?) potentially making you a forced seller of your assets (property or S&S) at just the wrong time! :(

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Bobthebuilder
7 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think that's just as important as the financials when planning for retirement...what you are going to do to replace the time spent not working...must be a bit of a shocker to the system when you have at least another forty hours of leisure time to fill.

Im semi retired and yes a lot of time sitting on your arse on your own because everyone else is working full time. I have hobbies that keep me busy plus a part time sole trader business, but at times it can be frustrating.

Should have taken profits on a few stocks a week ago, thought i should but did nothing, i am starting to trust my gut feelings again, when will i learn?

 

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10 hours ago, kibuc said:

It surprises me that you guys are planning to get a cheap long-term fix and then still overpay it. Surely, the main benefit of securing a low-cost long-term loan is that you can put your own money to some better use?

My plan was to get a 10y fix at some point as well but pay the lowest amount possible to the bank and put cash in reflations stock instead, so I can pay off the entire remaining balance (and then some!) once the fix ends.

See my comments below (or above this one)...your thoughts?

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Democorruptcy
6 hours ago, janch said:

My father dropped dead at 49 and this prompted me to stop work as soon as I could even if my finances weren't brilliant.  I was lucky in that I could downsize my house and release some cash which I lived on frugally for about six years until my state pension kicked in. Living simply is where it's at.

Sorry for your loss.

I think I know how you felt because my mother's death when aged 62 prompted me to make changes.  A software developer at the time, I just thought I've got to get out of the rat race. Decided to try turn my betting hobby into part time income and have more free time. That was me finished being employed at age 42. 

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sleepwello'nights
3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So initially I thought about this and how it may be better for someone with lots of cash to actually have a mortgage and use surplus to invest in S&S...but then realise that the bank/bs can probably `call time` on you whenever they like, and at short notice (1 month?) potentially making you a forced seller of your assets (property or S&S) at just the wrong time! :(

They can't call time when they feel like it. There was a case back in the days of TOS I think it was West Bromwich BS. They tried to call in mortgages based on a clause in their standard terms and conditions that said they could call in a mortgage when they wanted. It was held that the clause in the standard T&Cs was in conflict with the terms on which the mortgage was granted and therefore the terms under which the mortgage was agreed took precedence over their standard terms.

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12 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

They can't call time when they feel like it. There was a case back in the days of TOS I think it was West Bromwich BS. They tried to call in mortgages based on a clause in their standard terms and conditions that said they could call in a mortgage when they wanted. It was held that the clause in the standard T&Cs was in conflict with the terms on which the mortgage was granted and therefore the terms under which the mortgage was agreed took precedence over their standard terms.

So since this have they not altered the T&C so that either you don't have that option in the first place or you sign it away...its the first thing I would be doing if I worked in their legal dept. I would assume unless its statutory law they have now ensured that the West Brom scenario cannot happen again.

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5 hours ago, confused said:

RED ALERT! The Dow has failed to hold this years low........

December lows on the radar......

Dow is down 2500 pts in 4 days. Another down day, and that will be 5 down days straight, which has to be a record. Glad I bought puts, rest of the portfolio is getting hammered. 

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sleepwello'nights
9 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So since this have they not altered the T&C so that either you don't have that option in the first place or you sign it away...its the first thing I would be doing if I worked in their legal dept. I would assume unless its statutory law they have now ensured that the West Brom scenario cannot happen again.

I don't see how they can lend you money for a specified period and later reduce the period unilaterally if you kept to the obligations the contract imposed. That would clearly be a conflict of terms.  

I would think this situation is also covered by the doctrine of promissory estoppel. Whereby one person alters his position on reliance of a promise made by another.

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14 hours ago, CVG said:

Yep. They pay $1.88 (say £1.45) for every share you own per year (in 4 instalments). So roughly £1.45 divided by share price £18.22 is 8%.

It's even better if you compound the scrip

9 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I wanted some copper exposure a few years ago and I bought KAZ. I cant show my working, but it seemed the best at the time. There have been some talk about corruption etc but thats probably par for the course

 

Sold up our copper today.The decomplex trade here is cash till things settle methinks hattip @Democorruptcy

7 hours ago, kibuc said:

Hot damn!

New Gold Announces $300 Million Partnership With Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan at the New Afton Mine Adding Significant Financial Flexibility

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1255-tsx/ngd/73661-new-gold-announces-300-million-partnership-with-ontario-teachers-pension-plan-at-the-new-afton-mine-adding-significant-financial-flexibility.html

 

New Gold just got $300mil injection.

 

And, more interestingly - a pension plan (I realize they are much more, but hey) buying future cash flow from a mine? Those guys must be desparate for yield.

 

Anyway, looks like NG found a way out of the bankruptcy death spiral, possibly.

 

Got some at $0.76 t'other dayto balance our $3 ones..Tempted to buy more NGD to be fair.

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Not nice seeing Gold heading down with stocks today, but I’m thinking it’s a liquidity thing (hopefully not the big kahuna though!)

This coronavirus is getting interesting in terms of damaging the mood.US stocks have a long way to go even jsut for a 20% correction.

Iwe're hanging fire on big oil but the shares are becoming more compelling by the dayEQNR witha $16 handle,XOM $54,We're not rushing in but even tempted to sell the yellow stuff to buy oilies

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I don't see how they can lend you money for a specified period and later reduce the period unilaterally if you kept to the obligations the contract imposed. That would clearly be a conflict of terms.  

I would think this situation is also covered by the doctrine of promissory estoppel. Whereby one person alters his position on reliance of a promise made by another.

They got done for a trying to change the terms of a tracker mortgage product.

The margin call clauses pertain to LTV ratios.In a down market they'll be used  I suspect.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-3632918/West-Brom-unlawful-rate-hike-landlords-4-300-money-windfalls.html

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sleepwello'nights
16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

They got done for a trying to change the terms of a tracker mortgage product.

The margin call clauses pertain to LTV ratios.In a down market they'll be used  I suspect.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-3632918/West-Brom-unlawful-rate-hike-landlords-4-300-money-windfalls.html

My point still stands.

If you took out a loan and the terms on which it is granted allow the lender to vary the loan depending on certain defined circumstances then that will stand. The issue I'm referring to, and what @MrXxxx intimated, was that a lender could call in a loan whenever they wished. They can not change the contract unilaterally it has to comply with the agreed terms. I very much doubt that a term, even if stated explicitly and not hidden away in the small print can override an essential element of the contract. 

Margin calls can be enforceable, but usually they allow the borrower to remedy the shortfall and bring the loan back to the parameters specified or pay a higher interest rate. 

I just don't see how it can be equitable to lend money with the condition that I can demand repayment in full whenever I feel like it. That is usury.  

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3 hours ago, CVG said:

Does anyone know why I am having trouble accessing information on Sibayne Gold the last two days? HL has lost pricing information and even Stockopedia isn't finding the stock. Ta.

They seem to have changed over to new ticker/ check out SSW.JO

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32 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Very interesting read.  He probably had similar views even before the last 20% in S&P gains but recent wobbles are a useful (hopefully not too late) reminder that it can all go south pretty quickly. 

I hope that alternative views of a final pop in the markets are true, as I am starting to worry about my still mainly FTSE100 invested DC contributions. Switched out about 20% into cash and IL gilts but the need to do some of the rest now too.

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