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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Just now, Democorruptcy said:

The thing is they haven't reported any figures since the oil price and demand have dropped. I've bought some today at £16.50 which in one way seems a bit high in relation to the low oil price. I suppose it partly because the BoE have trashed Sterling?

Yes i think so.I bought as well,but still have ladders below here.A lot of my indicators are flashing a turn.I hope the virus increases over the weekend and the media go to town on it and a hit piece on oil tankers can sell their oil so are tied up somewhere.xD.I think the companies are probably a lot leaner these days,so perhaps my road map linking them to the oil price is a bit out.

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1 hour ago, TheNickos said:

Emergency QE and cut this WE or more pain before printy printy ?

Kudlow was surprisingly subdued about possible action, but the VIX got so high so fast (hit 48) that a relief rally is now on the cards (and that's from the most bearish economists). Seems they are waiting for hard data to crop up by March to act, but record low UST yields are screaming at the Fed to ease and print, just a matter of whether they wait until the March FOMC or not.

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Democorruptcy
25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will be the other provider.Im doing two at the moment,a big one and a very small one.The small one is with Premier Pensions,a work one and they are beyond useless.Im wrote to them last night and will be taking them to the ombudsman over it.They have only cost me £400,but its not the point.It took them 2 weeks to respond to an email.I asked them to put the pension in cash as i didnt trust them to transfer quick and they havent.They keep making lots of exuses.

Me and @Democorruptcy are now experts in the area of pensions and dealing with the charlatans running most of the companies.They exist simply to fleece punters for as long as they can with rip off fees etc.

I'm no expert, I just got lucky and found an excellent IFA who recommended I could transfer. I'm so glad he didn't throw me to the wolves xD

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Bloomberg is still a sea of red numbers. Words like plummet being thrown around. How's this going to play out? Do we now get a massive crash on Monday to look forward to?

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17 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Topped up with £1200 BP and will buy another £1400 if it goes to down another 10p ... and £2000 of XOM at £39, thought this price will do to jump in.

Kids got 1100 of them both also.

Which gold shares are worth a punt at this price? ... sold all a couple of months ago so only have silver share - Endeavour and Fresnilla.

brave to buy them before the weekend

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3 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

You can buy the IBTL instead?

I'm sitting here like a rabbit in the headlights trying to time a swap out of some IBTL into RDSB and BP. Maybe right now is the best time or... maybe they will spread even further apart. Aaargh! Need to calm down and get disciplined about it.

I sold half of my IBTL today, done very nicely :) Funnily enough bought RDSB and BP. Prob sell the other half over the next month, could go a bit higher yet.

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20 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Which gold shares are worth a punt at this price? ... sold all a couple of months ago so only have silver share - Endeavour and Fresnilla.

None. I’d rather wait for Gold to hit the ground first ($1000?) but it’s up to you. And I consider myself the biggest Gold Bug here  :) but I no longer see my $1800 target. It’s over guys.
btw. Anyone who buys any shares now is very brave, I’d sit on cash.

Of course I can be wrong and this is just my opinion.

 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

It’s a complete and over reaction.

 
OR could it be the start of the BIG CRASH much worst than the 1929 wall street crash that DB's friend talks about? 
 
At the end of the day we've all been WAITING for this, its just a bugger knowing at what point we're at?
 
Is there going to be one more MELT-UP?
 
Personally i think this is it, (though i could well be WRONG) we'll get up days and markets will be volatile but i think the major trend for a while will be down...at the time of posting the DOW is looking to shed another -1000 points!:o
 
@DurhamBorn...thoughts? one more MELT-UP?
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3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
OR could it be the start of the BIG CRASH much worst than the 1929 wall street crash that DB's friend talks about? 
 
At the end of the day we've all been WAITING for this, its just a bugger knowing at what point we're at?
 
Is there going to be one more MELT-UP?
 
Personally i think this is it, (though i could well be WRONG) we'll get up days and markets will be volatile but i think the major trend for a while will be down...at the time of posting the DOW is looking to shed another -1000 points!:o
 
@DurhamBorn...thoughts? one more MELT-UP?

It’s a nasty flu. The way it’s being reported in the press is that it’s a death sentence. It isn’t. The vast majority of people will make a full recovery within a week. The question is, did it warrant such a response from China in the first place?

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30 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

None. I’d rather wait for Gold to hit the ground first ($1000?) but it’s up to you. And I consider myself the biggest Gold Bug here  :) but I no longer see my $1800 target. It’s over guys.
btw. Anyone who buys any shares now is very brave, I’d sit on cash.

Of course I can be wrong and this is just my opinion.

 

Bear by name bear by nature....:D Time will tell I guess.

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Chewing Grass
1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

It’s a nasty flu. The way it’s being reported in the press is that it’s a death sentence. It isn’t. The vast majority of people will make a full recovery within a week. The question is, did it warrant such a response from China in the first place?

Good luck, I hope you are one of the 75-80% who test clear within a fortnight and one of the 95-98% who live to recover.

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2 minutes ago, harp said:

Bear by name bear by nature....:D Time will tell I guess.

Of course time will tell, I was very bullish on Gold, holding 10+ miners and physical Gold/Silver ETFs for nearly 2 years...what scared me most was GDX/Gold divergence and GDX false breakout. And then the massive sell off which was just a confirmation that something bad is going on.

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18 minutes ago, Loki said:

There it is!

I know this week has shocked all of us, and I’m clinging onto my GDXJ and Silver which is nicely in the red, but today’s comments from Powell are only the beginning of what’s to come. I’m not entirely sure why they’ve waited so long, probably to let COVID19 deflate the bubble somewhat, but now we’re in correction territory of big funds starting to blow up and 401k panic. Trump staying uncharacteristically quiet.

Rest assured, they will not allow this to go down much further without deploying their tools, 2008 was the shock event, now they know how to respond, along with looking at the crazy steps Japan has taken. I really do think they’re waiting for some hard negative economic data to show up sharpish so that if they cause a melt up into the final bust, they can say they sorta did the right thing. If the market was crashing late this week with Fed rate dropped in response and QE relaunched midweek then I’d be concerned and probably sell everything, but for now they haven’t even started, let’s see how long before rhetoric becomes action, 3 weeks at the latest.

If so, $ down, oil, stocks & gold up (until the bust) 

 

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4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

BUT... i already bought: shell & BP last week at HIGHER prices!:oxD

:-) :-) :-)...`true to form` then YTS...please let me know what you plan to buy and when, as I have some cash I want to invest...forget FA, forget TA, just do YTS a week later! :-) :-) :-)

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5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I really do think they’re waiting for some hard negative economic data to show up sharpish so that if they cause a melt up into the final bust, they can say they sorta did the right thing. If the market was crashing late this week with Fed rate dropped in response and QE relaunched midweek then I’d be concerned and probably sell everything, but for now they haven’t even started, let’s see how long before rhetoric becomes action, 3 weeks at the latest.

This is a great point - if they had started too soon that would have meant real trouble?

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5 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

ill advice anyone to stay away from shares, house prices never fall. " ya couldn't make it up!xD

Let me guess, did he sign off Miles Shipside (CEO Rightmove)?

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Talking Monkey
10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I know this week has shocked all of us, and I’m clinging onto my GDXJ and Silver which is nicely in the red, but today’s comments from Powell are only the beginning of what’s to come. I’m not entirely sure why they’ve waited so long, probably to let COVID19 deflate the bubble somewhat, but now we’re in correction territory of big funds starting to blow up and 401k panic. Trump staying uncharacteristically quiet.

Rest assured, they will not allow this to go down much further without deploying their tools, 2008 was the shock event, now they know how to respond, along with looking at the crazy steps Japan has taken. I really do think they’re waiting for some hard negative economic data to show up sharpish so that if they cause a melt up into the final bust, they can say they sorta did the right thing. If the market was crashing late this week with Fed rate dropped in response and QE relaunched midweek then I’d be concerned and probably sell everything, but for now they haven’t even started, let’s see how long before rhetoric becomes action, 3 weeks at the latest.

If so, $ down, oil, stocks & gold up (until the bust) 

 

Thats my  take on it too if they had done a rate cut and the DOW was still tanking then I would say this is it. With a couple of cuts  and some QE I think a last hurrah might happen, maybe not a huge melt up maybe DOW back close to 30K or slightly  over. Though whether they can keep the plates spinning till after the election that bit might be a stretch

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Good luck, I hope you are one of the 75-80% who test clear within a fortnight and one of the 95-98% who live to recover.

Dunno. I might have had it. I wasn’t tested. The doctor wasn’t bothered and simply told me to take some ibuprofen.

Edit: I had the worst flu I’ve ever had earlier this week. I wouldn’t wish anyone to have it, but I’m pretty much all recovered if still a little lacking in energy 5 days later. Whether it was Covid-19 or something else I guess I’ll never know.

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25 minutes ago, harp said:

Didn't seem to work...What next?

Shock and awe, talk is cheap. Although they did rally into the close, Nasdaq green. DXY at 98, down from 99.5 at start of the week.

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