Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Wow, going to negative soon..?

https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield

 

I've got a tab open with that too 

 

[BearyBear]

btw. got a vehicle tax reminder from dvla today with a note:

THE RATES OF DUTY SHOWN WERE CORRECT AT THE TIME OF PRINTING. IF THEY CHANGED IN THE BUDGET, YOU MAY NEED TO PAY A DIFFERENT RATE.

A tax hike soon...?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

btw. got a vehicle tax reminder from dvla today with a note:

THE RATES OF DUTY SHOWN WERE CORRECT AT THE TIME OF PRINTING. IF THEY CHANGED IN THE BUDGET, YOU MAY NEED TO PAY A DIFFERENT RATE.

A tax hike soon...?

Guaranteed  

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

btw. got a vehicle tax reminder from dvla today with a note:

THE RATES OF DUTY SHOWN WERE CORRECT AT THE TIME OF PRINTING. IF THEY CHANGED IN THE BUDGET, YOU MAY NEED TO PAY A DIFFERENT RATE.

A tax hike soon...?

The swines will probably tax my diesel road tax higher saying for green reasons.If they do im going to go to the doctors and claim a years ESA for anxiety,or at least 3 months until they access me and kick me off 

They might scrap the red diesel relief as well saying green issues.Thats a £2 billion relief,though usually they protect "poor" farmers and the landed gentry.

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I find it amazing that the gilt market is saying to the government you can borrow at 0.6% over 15 years,yet they ignore it.Not for much longer.

As the BoE is holding a decent proportion of our own debt and handing the coupon interest back to the governbankment to spend, then they are going to print and own more. Banks/pension funds are guaranteed buyers. I wonder what proportion of our debt the gilt market has any say over? 

For some reason the whole idea made think of the BoE playing De Niro's part! 

 

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

im going to go to the doctors and claim a years ESA for anxiety,or at least 3 months

Is it really that easy?

[Lightscribe]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think the UK will mainly focus on energy,and maybe defence spending,a lot for export.

I can only hope the UK will take a long hard look at itself after all this and realise that all-encompassing globalisation over home made manufacture and infrastructure will leave us open and hoisted up by our short and curlies when it really matters. But they already know that.

[Bricks & Mortar]

Gold/Silver ratio looking a bit, um...  well I'm no expert, but it looks like its doing one of those sharp UP moves that seem to precede a sharp DOWN move, (historically).
Is silver about to take off?

https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/5year/

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Loki said:

Is it really that easy?

Yep easy.You get it none means tested for a year,but after about 3 months they call you in assessment.Then you get booted off if you dont get enough points.Iv done it a few times.One time took them 6 months before my assessment.I got zero points of course,but doesnt matter,they simply boot you off it.You can claim none means tested JSA as well if you have paid enough stamp in the last two years,so the best approach is claim that for 6 months,that ends then claim ESA until they boot you off it.You have to of paid enough stamp in last 2 years though or you go on Universal Credit and thats means tested,

[Loki]

45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They have no choice.The economy has suffered from 40 years of too much consumption not enough production.The bond markets are screaming at the idiots to spend,but they just print instead to prop up asset prices.That is now failing,because more and more companies are simply zombies.Governments need to be spending massive amounts now,actually two years ago.In a credit money system the government needs to step in.It has allowed business to borrow and offshore far to much.That will reverse.China is going to suffer hugely from whats going to happen,and they will spend like never seen before.One belt one road will see massive investments.I think the UK will mainly focus on energy,and maybe defence spending,a lot for export.

I find it amazing that the gilt market is saying to the government you can borrow at 0.6% over 15 years,yet they ignore it.Not for much longer.

The government is going to solve the debt deflation with more debt? I mean...it makes sense when put like that but somewhat naively I expected the return to sound money somewhere along the line.  Using the debt deflation as a reset, not an interval before the main act.

Your calls have been spot on, of course, and it is a credit money system.  My misunderstanding.  Deal with the cycle you have not the one you wish for!

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep easy.You get it none means tested for a year,but after about 3 months they call you in assessment.Then you get booted off if you dont get enough points.Iv done it a few times.One time took them 6 months before my assessment.I got zero points of course,but doesnt matter,they simply boot you off it.You can claim none means tested JSA as well if you have paid enough stamp in the last two years,so the best approach is claim that for 6 months,that ends then claim ESA until they boot you off it.You have to of paid enough stamp in last 2 years though or you go on Universal Credit and thats means tested,

Thanks never taken anything out of 'the system' which has meant I've no idea how to play it 

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

I was just having a look at some other bits and pieces and noticed this chart

Is there a chance we've already had the rise and fall, or is your roadmap system firmly forward-facing? 

I think we need to see a dollar high in gold say $2000 before it begins it's pullback to to -in my view-the $1400 level.From then we'll be heading for @Errol territory

 

Interesting to see the goldies rallying hard today.

[Loki]

Just now, sancho panza said:

I think we need to see a dollar high in gold say $2000 before it begins it's pullback to to -in my view-the $1400 level.From then we'll be heading for @Errol territory

 

Interesting to see the goldies rallying hard today.

Thanks mate, I was hoping that was the case as I have a few things to get in order before I can start ordering more in amounts Errol would nod approvingly at 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Your in good company. You want to see my share list. A sea or red. Whilst dividends help smooth the pain my funds are still down. Patience and emotion is a skill I am still learning in order to alleviate out all of the emotion

Just to say guys, it's OK to cry!

[sancho panza]

47 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Gold/Silver ratio looking a bit, um...  well I'm no expert, but it looks like its doing one of those sharp UP moves that seem to precede a sharp DOWN move, (historically).
Is silver about to take off?

https://www.gold.co.uk/price-ratio/gold/silver/5year/

also precedes a sharp upmove in silver price.......check july 19

[DurhamBorn]

49 minutes ago, Loki said:

The government is going to solve the debt deflation with more debt? I mean...it makes sense when put like that but somewhat naively I expected the return to sound money somewhere along the line.  Using the debt deflation as a reset, not an interval before the main act.

Your calls have been spot on, of course, and it is a credit money system.  My misunderstanding.  Deal with the cycle you have not the one you wish for!

Thanks never taken anything out of 'the system' which has meant I've no idea how to play it 

The difference is one i use all the time.Go on Google earth and look at every council estate in the land.Look in the back gardens.Count the amount of trampolines.Almost everyone paid for with tax credits,every one imported.

Now instead of government ramping that up,they will instead ramp up spending here.Instead of feeding China by importing deflation,we will instead inflate.

Government borrowing to fund Mercedes to buy her 4 ADHD kids a trampoline from China is a different thing to borrowing at 0.6% to help put the backbone in so Drax and SSE can produce hydrogen.The problem of the last 40 years is governments have funded their own gallows,their own rope,and their own Pierrepoint through printing.

 

[Barnsey]

51 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Government borrowing to fund Mercedes to buy her 4 ADHD kids a trampoline from China is a different thing to borrowing at 0.6% to help put the backbone in so Drax and SSE can produce hydrogen.The problem of the last 40 years is governments have funded their own gallows,their own rope,and their own Pierrepoint through printing.

The moment I read that Gov was reclassifying public spending (including health and education) as “investment”, became very clear the rules have changed in a big way, carte blanche. Most other countries will be doing the same of course, we’ll have amazing world class infrastructure by the end of the decade, which will end up getting nuked in WWIII 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The difference is one i use all the time.Go on Google earth and look at every council estate in the land.Look in the back gardens.Count the amount of trampolines.Almost everyone paid for with tax credits,every one imported.

Now instead of government ramping that up,they will instead ramp up spending here.Instead of feeding China by importing deflation,we will instead inflate.

Government borrowing to fund Mercedes to buy her 4 ADHD kids a trampoline from China is a different thing to borrowing at 0.6% to help put the backbone in so Drax and SSE can produce hydrogen.The problem of the last 40 years is governments have funded their own gallows,their own rope,and their own Pierrepoint through printing.

 

Completely agree, it wasn't a disagreement with your system or thoughts - I'm just very debt averse and transferred that mindset over to the thinking in this thread.

On a side-point, I've had the phrase 'life changing amounts of wealth' bouncing around my head the past couple of days as things start getting shaken up, I think it's an expression (Or variant of one) you've used before

To me it looks like shit's starting to get real

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

Mines £30, its one of the reasons i keep it and dont bother getting a newer car which will be a 1990 4.2 litre Ford Granada Diesel if they do change things for Greta and the environment.

I'm getting the most offensive kilowatt-guzzling 'fuck you' electric/hydrogen vehicle available they sell them...just because.

"well Greta said it's better for the environment than my 10 year old Suzuki.  Checkmate."

[Bricks & Mortar]

Wow!  DXY down to 96.5.  It's all happening fast now.

One of the 'issues' I have is trying to keep up with all these charts and information.  For now, I'm just typing google searches and pulling them up from marketwatch, kitco, gold.co.uk, yahoo and others.
Would be great to have some kind of 'app' where I could just pull the indicators I want onto a homescreen and have them there whenever I open the app.
Does anyone know of such a thing?

 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Wow!  DXY down to 96.5.  It's all happening fast now.

One of the 'issues' I have is trying to keep up with all these charts and information.  For now, I'm just typing google searches and pulling them up from marketwatch, kitco, gold.co.uk, yahoo and others.
Would be great to have some kind of 'app' where I could just pull the indicators I want onto a homescreen and have them there whenever I open the app.
Does anyone know of such a thing?

 

https://stockcharts.com/

Any good? I can't even get the FAQs to load to tell you more, think it's my net connection rather than the site.

[BearyBear]

2 hours ago, Tdog said:

Mines £30, its one of the reasons i keep it and dont bother getting a newer car which will be a 1990 4.2 litre Ford Granada Diesel if they do change things for Greta and the environment.

Mine is £260 which puts me into a "reckless spender" category  

9 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Wow!  DXY down to 96.5.  It's all happening fast now.

One of the 'issues' I have is trying to keep up with all these charts and information.  For now, I'm just typing google searches and pulling them up from marketwatch, kitco, gold.co.uk, yahoo and others.
Would be great to have some kind of 'app' where I could just pull the indicators I want onto a homescreen and have them there whenever I open the app.
Does anyone know of such a thing?

 

https://www.prorealtime.com/ ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

21 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Wow!  DXY down to 96.5.  It's all happening fast now.

One of the 'issues' I have is trying to keep up with all these charts and information.  For now, I'm just typing google searches and pulling them up from marketwatch, kitco, gold.co.uk, yahoo and others.
Would be great to have some kind of 'app' where I could just pull the indicators I want onto a homescreen and have them there whenever I open the app.
Does anyone know of such a thing?

 

U need more monitors

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Wow!  DXY down to 96.5.  It's all happening fast now.

One of the 'issues' I have is trying to keep up with all these charts and information.  For now, I'm just typing google searches and pulling them up from marketwatch, kitco, gold.co.uk, yahoo and others.
Would be great to have some kind of 'app' where I could just pull the indicators I want onto a homescreen and have them there whenever I open the app.
Does anyone know of such a thing?

 

Should go to 90 or even 88,one of the reasons i sold my treasuries.At 90 probably time to buy back in.If/when that one hits il probably leave things for a while and just let them play out.Leave things alone until the printing starts.

[Shamone]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The difference is one i use all the time.Go on Google earth and look at every council estate in the land.Look in the back gardens.Count the amount of trampolines.Almost everyone paid for with tax credits,every one imported.

Now instead of government ramping that up,they will instead ramp up spending here.Instead of feeding China by importing deflation,we will instead inflate.

Government borrowing to fund Mercedes to buy her 4 ADHD kids a trampoline from China is a different thing to borrowing at 0.6% to help put the backbone in so Drax and SSE can produce hydrogen.The problem of the last 40 years is governments have funded their own gallows,their own rope,and their own Pierrepoint through printing.

 

Excellent turn of phrase. I like the cut of your jib, sir.

[Bricks & Mortar]

43 minutes ago, Loki said:

https://stockcharts.com/

Any good?

 

40 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

https://www.prorealtime.com/ ?

 

26 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

U need more monitors

Many thanks.  I'll give the apps a go.  I have a spare monitor too - got it from a bankruptcy auction when a building contractor went bust last year.  Might need a nephew to connect it up though.  Tech gives me the fear.