Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

7 minutes ago, Tdog said:

My idea of laddering was to buy different shares in the same sector should it fall .. so will look to buy a few more tomorrow at about £1200 each. Gazprom, Shell, a little more BP and one or 2 others mentioned. But maybe hold off to see if it falls even lower.

The fees were £35 for buying XOM, hence thought to buy 2 grands worth in 1 hit ... live and learn.

But yes it is where itll be in a couple of years.

 

who you buying via?

 

try interactive brokers/saxo bank,very cheap,absolutely love the IB format.

[sancho panza]

gold is plus $24

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/metals

[sancho panza]

cable climbing..watch that dollar.......

https://uk.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd

[Barnsey]

57 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

$ devaluation?

[Sugarlips]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ladders in place and will be very pleased if they hit,if they do il be buying Shell B at 50% down.Dollar should go below 90 before the end of summer and that will see oil go back above $45.The lags will see lots of buying of oil forwards as currencies go up against the dollar.If Shell did go to £13 i expect that to be a PE ratio of 2.0 based on free cash profits on my road map in 2028.From those levels id expect a 500% increase through the cycle before dividends.

 

Keeping your head whilst all around others are losing theirs, I like it.

Any opinions on Oil Search OSH ASX 

Was $8 a couple months ago, just opened sub $4..

[Hardhat]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.IF i was 30 id of bought in the smaller companies as the ladders hit,but im not chasing capital gains,

I'm 30, and I would like to chase capital gains. Any names for smaller oilies that look good? Won't be taken as trading advice but somewhere to start researching.

[Democorruptcy]

On IG currently FTSE -360 and DOW -1100

https://www.ig.com/uk/indices

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

I'm 30, and I would like to chase capital gains. Any names for smaller oilies that look good? Won't be taken as trading advice but somewhere to start researching.

Could try Vermillion,but a lot might go under before they get chance to shoot higher.Shell might get you 500% after its falls by 2027.No need to chase the smaller stuff really.

[Hardhat]

Thanks, I'll take a look. I'm already laddering into RDSB. Hoping for another ladder hit tomorrow.

[reformed nice guy]

3 hours ago, BearyBear said:

Junk bonds in trouble because of Oil price collapsing...

https://www.ft.com/content/c048d870-6138-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51785690

Lebanon defaulted as well.

Stock market is one thing, but if the bond markets go to shit....

[RickyBacker]

20 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51785690

Lebanon defaulted as well.

Stock market is one thing, but if the bond markets go to shit....

Does anyone remember a poster on ToS 'Realist Bear' ? His/her profile pic was a polar bear. I always remember one of his/her excellent posts that laid out the endgame point-by-point. It ended with "Bond market collapse and dash for assets". I've searched the old site for that particular post but can't find it anywhere. Absolutely incredible to read the posts on here and see it play it in front of you. Much respect to you all.

[Lightscribe]

Yup, loading into Shell, in my ISA, and will start averaging down in my pension (not much choice in funds) from my cash fund into the FTSE 100 once it hits below 6000. We'll see what happens to crypto as it's a true test now. I have 1.5BTC but also chainlink (see the rise of this since I mentioned it on this thread last year). I won't make the mistake of not capitalising on every ladder down like I didn't do in 2000/2008. 

If it gets worse than that... well we'll have greater things than investing to worry about.

[BearyBear]

4 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

Does anyone remember a poster on ToS 'Realist Bear' ? His/her profile pic was a polar bear. I always remember one of his/her excellent posts that laid out the endgame point-by-point. It ended with "Bond market collapse and dash for assets". I've searched the old site for that particular post but can't find it anywhere. Absolutely incredible to read the posts on here and see it play it in front of you. Much respect to you all.

Of course I remember RB...!

[Barnsey]

JJEEEEEEEESSSSSSUUUUUUUUUSSSSSS

Well that wasn’t the longest sleep I’ve ever had, and now I’m staring at what looks like a complete global melt down, even Gold and Silver is getting hammered again. 

The fact that most index Futures have ALREADY hit their trading limit down suggests to me we’re bound to get some big news before the open from central banks otherwise we’re on for a historic Black Monday redux.

Yields and currencies collapsing.

I know many of you just want central banks to stand back, but they won’t, especially with this bat flu taking over the world which provides the perfect excuse. They’ve got plenty of QE related tools left in Pandora’s box, it’s about to get a little silly, but let’s see what it takes to stabilise the stock market and yields first before the REALLY whacky ideas in the recession.

[Barnsey]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Depends on how long this lasts, a dent for sure. At $28 a barrel Im happy that and anything else is fully priced in. Call me crazy, but I'm still buying tomorrow. I might even pick up some 12% divis, yum.

I feel strangely relieved and relaxed. Ive been worrying and waiting for this for a long time. I'm glad its happened and is now over. For me, at least. 

Edit: I should say tonight! It's late evening where I am, and you wouldn't think a thing is amiss.

‘Tis a strange time indeed, safe to say you’ll be in the minority of relaxed investors CP, I’m looking at the FTSE 100 futures stuck at -6.57%, the worst performing index from what I can make out, certainly suggesting an absolute slaughter today if we hear nothing.

A reminder regarding U.S. trading halts:

-7% or -13% (not sure why it’s either) = 15 min halt

-20% = trading suspended until following day

[Jesus Wept]

5 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

Does anyone remember a poster on ToS 'Realist Bear' ? His/her profile pic was a polar bear. I always remember one of his/her excellent posts that laid out the endgame point-by-point. It ended with "Bond market collapse and dash for assets". I've searched the old site for that particular post but can't find it anywhere. Absolutely incredible to read the posts on here and see it play it in front of you. Much respect to you all.

It was not ‘Realist Bear’. 

It was ‘Daddy Bear’

He had a 7 point signature which included...

‘Bond Market Collapse’

’Dash for Assets’

’Hyperinflationary Depression’

No idea where he is now. Probably starting a thread about an impending Global Pandemic.....8 weeks before anyone else....

 

[Democorruptcy]

19 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Let's go to battle!

Based on my previous experiences what we want to buy and what we actually can buy might be two different things today. I very much doubt that the HL website will be able to cope with the volume. I found it completely useless for new trades the day after the last election. If it's something you don't normally do, might be worth considering limit orders in the hope they fill. 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Ftse has hit the bottom of the bottom of the megaphone, lets see if it holds ...

 

I'm not surprised, it's going to  need to shout for help very loudly 

[CVG]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Good tips. I'm going to wait till the afternoon anyway, I think people will dump all day

Hi CP, when you say "the afternoon" are you thinking just before US market opens (in case of Fed intervention) or after?

[M S E Refugee]

Anybody buying stocks today are absolutely crackers.

This is going to be the 2nd Great Depression. 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Ive just been thinking about that. I really should just set ladders, but I like to see some strength before buying. For this event, I want to see oil pin bar off the bottom. If it closes on a weekly, or maybr monthly, basis below the support I mentioned, well then I'm probably wrong. 

If you set ladders/limit orders but don't see strength, so don't want to buy, you would have to hope the system can handle cancelling orders 

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

RDSB at £12 and we'll be all in,although it may take some times to get some NS&I accoutns freed up.I'll take my chances in life.Bit of a gamble that this virus is what I think it is but I see a lot of people with no clinical background panicing and I see a lot of Drs not panicing.

Just a note of caution, the death rate being low is based on the Hospitals not being swamped.  Since Italy is looking at 10% of patients needing critical care its a case of when not if that happens.

[Barnsey]

Erm...

 

Less than 30 minutes until we see the reality of all this pent up energy unfold, popcorn for breakfast?

[M S E Refugee]

Just now, Cattle Prod said:

Another good point. I should probably really concentrate on keeping my job st the moment rather than looking at the bloody markets half the day, the knives may be out when I get back! Bloody ruthless business, this.

What do level do you think the FTSE will be trading at when London goes into lock down, higher than today's finish or lower than today's finish.

[Democorruptcy]

12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Anybody buying stocks today are absolutely crackers.

This is going to be the 2nd Great Depression. 

You could be right, I posted the chart the other day where the FTSE was below 4,000 in the last 2 big dips, so there could be more to follow from here. Personally I couldn't be selling anything when I can smell fear, I sold everything I had in December and went 94% cash. I've bought a bit since but too much cash in any sort of account is a concern at times like this.