Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Novatek is not in the top 3 because it's dividend yield is less than the average for the 20 stocks.

Thanks. I should have read it more carefully. That was filter #3 in your list.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Bit confused (new to online share buying)...I thought if you were buying `manually` (as opposed to an automatic limit buy) you are presented with a screen price and have 15 secs to buy at that price?!...are you saying that you did this and then the order was filled at a higher price?...if this is the case and someone above waited a hour then for RDSB the final price could have been 120p more this morning!

Not answering your question directly but, i was trying to buy this morning and was getting failed on orders and fails clicking buy on the countdowns that went through. Up against the big boys i suspect but got what i wanted by 10am then went out and did a bit of work. Plenty of ammo left for more falls yet.

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil ill take a look at, i didnt realise they were LSE listed!

Gazprom is an ADS on the LSE. 

Rosneft is a GDRS on the LSE.

Lukoil is an ADR on the LSE.

Not for everyone given the opaqueness and counterparty risk. .

 

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Decades or never for a lot of them.The people next to me on the production line where i worked were buying at peak prices.Their pensions were going in every month.People moving a DB pension over to an equity fund.Many of them will of gone in at peak.Every forum you read they all buy Vanguard 40/60 type funds because they have done very well for decades.Smoothing out the ups and downs.Will they work with yields at 0.2%?,time will tell.

When i started work,in a factory,most people understood finance,even if just a little bit.They understood interest rates,inflation,risk.Do people now?.All i see is new builds selling for £150k with 22 year olds in them with two new Audi's on the drive.

The risk out there now isnt recession,bad times etc.Its the most elevated risk since the US was formed that we could see complete collapse.The CBs are way behind.Governments seem as fixed as ever on rubbish,rather than whats arriving at speed.

Nobody can know the bottom.Im buying now myself knowing full well if the worst of a debt deflation hits i will be hit,but with work and effort iv avoided 50% falls for most of my capital.So far we have traded the last few years about as well as you can,not perfect,mistake along the way,but im pretty happy about it.

Once/if the $ hits 90/88 everything will depend on if the CBs are mass printing or not.

Lets hope within a year we can leave this thread for 7 years to just sit ,and go away and live our lives.Once this works through thats what il be doing once fully positioned.

That last bit really got me thinking, once fully positioned however long till the final collapse will be the best of it for a lot of us, I reckon life will be a lot bleaker after that for many many years. I thoroughly intend to enjoy life, take things slow and appreciate the small details once fully invested

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

Thanks. I should have read it more carefully. That was filter #3 in your list.

Maybe a high score warrants a closer look despite the dividend yield.  I was quite bullish during the scoring until then!  Maybe need to look at how reasonable the 20 dividends are to form an average (e.g. the 11%)?

[harp]

Carnage today, more of the same tomorrow?

[dgul]

17 minutes ago, harp said:

Carnage today, more of the same tomorrow?

We'll keep on getting carnage until we don't.  The point at which 'until we don't' occurs is not yet clear, but could be anytime between right now and several months time.

At the 'until we don't' point we'll get renewed carnage but this time as millions of shorts are taken out.

[Agent ZigZag]

The central banks I consider will co-ordinate together very soon. The longer they leave it the worse it becomes. im confident they will act very soon

[Talking Monkey]

4 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

The central banks I consider will co-ordinate together very soon. The longer they leave it the worse it becomes. im confident they will act very soon

Its going to be QE and a lot of it, they know they will get a bad press if they kick off too soon with QE  so a few days of carnage people are scared and the QE is welcomed

[Loki]

Any thoughts on oil price for the rest of the week?

Anyone adding to their physical silver stash while the price is this ridiculously low?

[Barnsey]

15 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Its going to be QE and a lot of it, they know they will get a bad press if they kick off too soon with QE  so a few days of carnage people are scared and the QE is welcomed

They better hurry up, let’s see what comes out of the White House meeting this evening. Today might not have felt like the apocalypse, but:

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Not for everyone given the opaqueness and counterparty risk. .

 

Ta, although im far more worried about Deutsche bank holding my Harmony Gold ADR's!!!

[Hardhat]

Watching all this unfold and wondering whether it's a good or a bad thing that I only have a limited amount of money to invest. I'm definitely learning a lot.

I've got a LISA positioned in relation stocks, still more to add. Plan to hold it for at least five years, maybe 7.

Thing I'm most worried about is construction sector slowdown. My company does a lot of work abroad and we've got major contracts for Asia and Middle East that I'm working on. Travel bans would be pretty unhelpful. If I'm still in a job for the foreseeable future I'll be finishing the portfolio!

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

If it closes weekly around or above $30, it will have tested and held a long term support line. That's what I'm looking for. There is no reason for oil to be cheaper than this, other than pricing in a future demand shock which I don't think will materialise, virus or no virus. The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices, and this price flush is acting as a massive stimulus for China in particular, and the world in general, as we speak. This long term price floor goes back to 1998, when there was a true oil glut. 2016, a shale oil glut. Now there is little or no excess inventory, and supply is uncertain. If it closes below ~ $30 this week, I'll switch to cautious and wait for the monthly close. If that closes below ~$30, all bets are off I think. In that scenario I'll be moving to cash, physical metals and food. It will mean very bad things are happening that we are not yet aware of. I think it's low probability, fwiw.

What a post, that's what I'm talking about.  Cheers

[Agent ZigZag]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

What a post, that's what I'm talking about.  Cheers

It is how all reports should be made - a trail of potential outcomes that is easy to follow and understand. It was very good By Cattle Prod

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Easy, Greed.

Never mind its 11 years on from the last recession, the market is bubbly as feck and Central Bankers are now focusing on merely keeping the economy going and not just pumping assets, the $/£ signs have descended over the eyes and all they can see is stocks on sale!

Think you nailed it there. 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Easy t get worried about cash being trashed in this financial system.

Think we can say, cash is not trash at the moment.

Good point that

[Barnsey]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

What a post, that's what I'm talking about.  Cheers

Just to add to @Cattle Prod’s excellent reply, this definitely screams of a panic response to the oil war news, and not necessarily justified by hard data, more worst case scenario, “what if?”. I wouldn’t be surprised to see oil recover gradually from here and then get hit hard in the bust again back to the $20s for a bit.

[Harley]

My data for the Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution industry for review and comment only (please, not investment advice).

A tricky one given the MLPs.  FT.com has no financial data so I sourced from Morningstar.

But my concern is how MLPs "distort" the rankings as they pay out good dividends so push the non-MLP companies out of the top spots.

Worse is I thought I read once that UK taxpayers don't get the full dividend (anyone know about this?).

So I have included the top three with MLPs (green) and without (orange) MLPs (but all scores compared against sector averages include the MLP data). 

Actually more than three given some draws.

Same methodology as before.

Comments please.

[Democorruptcy]

54 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

If it closes weekly around or above $30, it will have tested and held a long term support line. That's what I'm looking for. There is no reason for oil to be cheaper than this, other than pricing in a future demand shock which I don't think will materialise, virus or no virus. The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices, and this price flush is acting as a massive stimulus for China in particular, and the world in general, as we speak. This long term price floor goes back to 1998, when there was a true oil glut. 2016, a shale oil glut. Now there is little or no excess inventory, and supply is uncertain. If it closes below ~ $30 this week, I'll switch to cautious and wait for the monthly close. If that closes below ~$30, all bets are off I think. In that scenario I'll be moving to cash, physical metals and food. It will mean very bad things are happening that we are not yet aware of. I think it's low probability, fwiw.

You will sell all your oilies at a loss?

[BearyBear]

 

[Barnsey]

What will they announce?

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

 

get togethers are a no no when spreading.

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

All European futures stuck on -10%, going to be another bloodbath in the morning 

Yep, that's how it looks to me as well. Positive thing is that if ftse100 drops by another 40% we will reach the previous crash low so we are not that far   of course it can go lower... wait&see.

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

No sorry that but wasn't clear. I'll keep the major dividend payers. Sell everything else. At least 50% cash, probably more. I just cant see any situation where those companies go away, they are systemic to our way of life.

Edit: to repeat, I think this is low probabilty. I am pretty sure ~30 will hold, and mean revert back toward 55 over the next 3-6 months. But always good to think of the what to do if not.

That's more what I expected.

Just set a limit order for more RDSB at £9.95  I was surprised my £12.50 today was filled. In for a penny in for a pound and all that! I'm glad I don't have to hand over pound notes for the red ones, it so much easier just looking at figures on the screen.