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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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42 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Silver wow... my broker (IG) says on my short: call to close. Never seen that before.

Counterparty Risk?  Maybe they cant find anyone to hedge long silver with any more!

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21 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I did wonder about debt and the casino stuff in the USA might go in lock down. 

Re betting overall, it's like cigs or booze to some people they will have to find a way. Things aren't looking good but imagine this pre-internet gambling! 

Interesting though occurred regarding this...if the CV causes bronchial issues smokers will have to avoid cigarettes YET still need their fix...perhaps its time to short the tobacco companies and go long on Nicorette?..

note, this is not financial advice, but please feel free to blow all your funds on my `ramblings`! :-)

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Castlevania
14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This aint over by a long way.

Someone I know in London just said his very sick girlfriend, who is struggling to breath was sent home from hospital without being tested.

The nurse said they are struggling to cope and it was all kicking off.

The establishment are not telling the whole truth.

The actual numbers are way higher. They’re only testing people who have worsening symptoms.

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TheCountOfNowhere
3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The actual numbers are way higher. They’re only testing people who have worsening symptoms.

That's exactly what she found out.  Tho she couldnt breath very well.

I went to Italy at new year and had a bad cough/fever 3 weeks later. 

I still can't breath very well.

Im starting to think now that I've already had it.

 

Anyway, on a brighter note...the stock marker doesn't believe the estate agents

 

Market Summary > Persimmon plc
LON: PSN
Follow
 

1,759.50 GBX −282.50 (13.83%)

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TheCountOfNowhere
Just now, Cattle Prod said:

Guys the FTSE is now within 8% of it's total GFC crash ... in three weeks. I know a panic when I see one. I'm not saying it won't go lower, I'm certain that the current FTSE valuation is not based on a reasonable pricing in of virus effects, but panic. There is blood on the streets for sure now, it's been a while

My man in the city said they expected it to bottom out at 3000 in the GFC.  Went to 4 something.

I think low 4's might not be a bad bet now, but really...sit back and wait.  This has only just started.  

Even if you miss the bottom it wont be going up anytime soon.

If you're a day trader...fill your boots.

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Well once the dust settles we will need to start a thread "what did this virus teach you" behaviour, markets, investing, stocking toilet rolls etc... O.o

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TheCountOfNowhere
2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Well once the dust settles we will need to start a thread "what did this virus teach you" behaviour, markets, investing, stocking toilet rolls etc... O.o

This sort of thing has not happened in the modern age.

 

A thread like "are you still alive" might be better

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Bricormortis

According to my fag packet calculations, so far,  circa 1% of Italy has the virus. ( edit to say this is re the alleged GS projection posted on page 269 )

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5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Guys the FTSE is now within 8% of it's total GFC crash ... in three weeks. I know a panic when I see one. I'm not saying it won't go lower, I'm certain that the current FTSE valuation is not based on a reasonable pricing in of virus effects, but panic. There is blood on the streets for sure now, it's been a while

I know the 'this time it's different' line is much rubbished, but I think there are dual shocks to the system here. Threats to solvency 10 years ago were from over-leveraged firms, today some firms may still have plenty of debt but also face another problem in that income will be massively cut, if the lockdowns around the world last any more than a month.

It seems to me that a higher percentage of firms than the GFC will not survive.

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1 minute ago, DoINeedOne said:

Well once the dust settles we will need to start a thread "what did this virus teach you" behaviour, markets, investing, stocking toilet rolls etc... O.o

That dust may be radioactive if China continues down the line of pointing the finger at a USA military biolab that coincidentally closed just as the virus was kicking off in China. If this has legs then the current stock market sell-off panic may be just the beginning. :ph34r:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51903319

Quote

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian has even tweeted that “it might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan”. 

Maybe they're trying to deflect attention from their own lab in Wuhan, but seems they are admitting it's man made one way or another. :ph34r:

Will check if this story has any focus in the virus sub forum rather than add too much to this thread.

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1 minute ago, Boon said:

I know the 'this time it's different' line is much rubbished, but I think there are dual shocks to the system here. Threats to solvency 10 years ago were from over-leveraged firms, today some firms may still have plenty of debt but also face another problem in that income will be massively cut, if the lockdowns around the world last any more than a month.

It seems to me that a higher percentage of firms than the GFC will not survive.

Yup. Grant Shapps, transport secretary, said this morning:

On the troubles faced by airlines such as Easyjet, which announced more “significant cancellations” on Monday, Shapps said viable companies would be offered help, for example on deferring tax, to help them cope with the global disruption. He said:

Quote

We want to make sure that companies and organisation who are in a good state, not those who were going to fail anyway, are able to continue. We’ll be looking at all these measures, and I’ll be discussing them with the chancellor and the prime minister.

Looks like they aren't going to bail out the zombie companies (unless they receive suitable 'persuasion') so many will be allowed to fail. :Jumping:

Lots of potential job losses and the economic knock-on effect of that to add to the mix. :ph34r:
 

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Castlevania
13 minutes ago, Boon said:

I know the 'this time it's different' line is much rubbished, but I think there are dual shocks to the system here. Threats to solvency 10 years ago were from over-leveraged firms, today some firms may still have plenty of debt but also face another problem in that income will be massively cut, if the lockdowns around the world last any more than a month.

It seems to me that a higher percentage of firms than the GFC will not survive.

I think a lot of small businesses are toast.

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Castlevania
2 minutes ago, BoSon said:

Yup. Grant Shapps, transport secretary, said this morning:

On the troubles faced by airlines such as Easyjet, which announced more “significant cancellations” on Monday, Shapps said viable companies would be offered help, for example on deferring tax, to help them cope with the global disruption. He said:

Looks like they aren't going to bail out the zombie companies (unless they receive suitable 'persuasion') so many will be allowed to fail. :Jumping:

Lots of potential job losses and the economic knock-on effect of that to add to the mix. :ph34r:
 

I’m assuming they’ll still want business rates from all those businesses on the high street that have seen turnover plummet. I wonder if they’d still ask for it if businesses were forced to close like in many parts of Europe?

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Chewing Grass
1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

I think a lot of small businesses are toast.

Just what the big boys want, Amazon will become the new GUM.

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1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just what the big boys want, Amazon will become the new GUM.

Anyone seen any news on whether China and other major suppliers to Amazon and the west are starting to get back to normal with regards exports or is it still at recession inducing level lack of supply?

Seems China are reporting only a handful of new virus cases so either they're covering up the true picture or they should be back up and running factory and shipping wise.

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Just now, BoSon said:

Anyone seen any news on whether China and other major suppliers to Amazon and the west are starting to get back to normal with regards exports or is it still at recession inducing level lack of supply?

Seems China are reporting only a handful of new virus cases so either they're covering up the true picture or they should be back up and running factory and shipping wise.

China is pretty much back on stream.I ran an import business and my agent in China said most are back working,but of course a lot of backlog etc and they are serving their main customers first.

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Bricormortis
2 hours ago, BearyBear said:

Personally I don't understand why people are looking at this gold/silver ratio, these are two different commodities to me. Looking behind doesn't make sense either as silver is not that important as it used to be (photography) and it was obtained using different methods.

Two thirds of an ounce of silver in a solar panel. I reckon solar panels will be the new double glazing in that they are going to see massive uptake in the future.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
48 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Know this is said in jest Count, but is why its taken me 12 months of pontificating before I bought my first share...being down is not nice, but knowing it was my decision (and something I can be learning from) in a perverse way makes it feel less painful...until of course someone posts today that they bought the same shares £xs lower, especially as I am trying to ignore the tickers/current prices :-) :-) :-)

There's ONLY 1 person on this ENTIRE thread that's bought your stock at a HIGHER PRICE ...YES ya be glad to know its: Yellow_Reduced_Sticker !:oxD

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TheCountOfNowhere
20 minutes ago, BoSon said:

 

Lots of potential job losses and the economic knock-on effect of that to add to the mix. :ph34r:
 

House prices only go up.

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Bricormortis
49 minutes ago, Boon said:

Anyone buying today?

Topped up Repsol. £750. I started with a £ 1000 stake, 30% down on that to date, may go lower yet but this is a long term hold not a trade,  I don't think oil will sustain lows below $30. Oildrum.com is worth a read for general info and opinion.

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