Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

There's no way the current prices of RDSB / BP / Goldies are rational, and they will likely "rubber band" once they do move up, especially PMs.

I would 100% be a buyer at these prices if I had any cash left to deploy xD. As you said, it's likely this is a one-off panic sale and prices may not get this low again (unless there is now a melt up and bust??) If I can liquidate some other assets quickly enough, I want to pick up more RDSB, BP, GDX, GDXJ. Would have thought esp. PM miners will be moving up fast in the short term, sell off is finished.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Castlevania

Centrica’s board have finally pulled their finger out and sacked the chairman and the chief executive (although he was leaving later this year anyhow).

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/17/centrica-replaces-chairman-ousts-outgoing-ceo-british-gas

7 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

There's no way the current prices of RDSB / BP / Goldies are rational, and they will likely "rubber band" once they do move up, especially PMs.

I would 100% be a buyer at these prices if I had any cash left to deploy xD. As you said, it's likely this is a one-off panic sale and prices may not get this low again (unless there is now a melt up and bust??) If I can liquidate some other assets quickly enough, I want to pick up more RDSB, BP, GDX, GDXJ. Would have thought esp. PM miners will be moving up fast in the short term, sell off is finished.

The amount of money printing is pointing to inflation/currency debasement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Any particular ones you have in mind? For info only of course. 

Personally I just buy the ETFs - GDX & GDXJ  (GDGB & GJGB for the GBP denominated listing).

Fres, HOCM, Alexco for silver exposure.

HZM for nickel.

That's pretty much it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hardhat said:

Personally I just buy the ETFs - GDX & GDXJ  (GDGB & GJGB for the GBP denominated listing).

Fres, HOCM, Alexco for silver exposure.

HZM for nickel.

That's pretty much it.

Thanks mate

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telefonica.com/en/web/press-office/-/operators-advise-a-rational-and-responsible-use-of-telecommunication-networks-to-cope-with-traffic-increases

Data use exploding on the Telco's networks.Might not be extra revenue of course because most will be under contracts.ITV might even sign up a lot of Yanks for Britbox so they can binge on Dr Who.xD

BT last week also reached record traffic at 17.5 terabits due to an update to Red Dead Redemption,new Call of Duty and the Champions League matches.

 

There is a lot of thought currently going into working from home, if using the car to get to work doubles in price then i can see a big incentive to a longer term change in behaviour.  Especially down south with their £6-8k rail season tickets.  Another boost to the telco's in the next cycle if it comes off and more people need bandwidth for video conferencing etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

There is a lot of thought currently going into working from home, if using the car to get to work doubles in price then i can see a big incentive to a longer term change in behaviour.  Especially down south with their £6-8k rail season tickets.  Another boost to the telco's in the next cycle if it comes off and more people need bandwidth for video conferencing etc.

How does home working square with high house prices and small houses?

Sure I could work from home - I'll use the living room and if I have kids, partner with different working times or also working from home we'll share the dining table? Horrid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bricks & Mortar
7 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

How does home working square with high house prices and small houses?

Sure I could work from home - I'll use the living room and if I have kids, partner with different working times or also working from home we'll share the dining table? Horrid.

For some, working from home can be offset against high commuting costs, and the need to live near a train station, or the motorway, or within reasonable distance of the workplace.  So, sell up and get a bigger house somewhere else.
Won't work like that for everyone.  But in some cases.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Helicopter Money Will Send Gold Soaring…

Central Banks and sovereign Governments have been given a free pass to print money and bail out the banking, hedge fund and corporate interests from catastrophically hopeless loan, bond, subprime asset and derivative positions. The coronavirus crisis will be fingered as the culprit but market forces would have forced a financial collapse eventually anyway (see 2008 for the playbook). While the helicopter money will bail out the real perpetrators, it will also effect insidious currency devaluation aka inflation.

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/helicopter-money-will-send-gold-soaring/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've set our final ladders down to £7 on RDSB for example.

I got RSDB for 995.00 today (966.00 would have been nice) next ladder set at 8.00, again who knows if it will hit, that will be my last ladder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

@Cattle Prod

Quick question and open to otehrs eg @DurhamBorn @Harley

CP.I've set our final ladders down to £7 on RDSB for example.I don't think they're going to get hit.Im playing with the idea of having a point where it's high enough to confimr the bottom is in but low enough to still present value-although I think there's real value in RDSB under £15.NAd then mvoing full allocation on the table.

My issue is that I think we're looking at once in a generation rpices at this moment in oilies.

 I think we're going to bounce back up as quickly as we've come down (and boy oh boy has that drop been steep)in some stocks.Goldies like KGC did a 40% move bottom to top Monday.Sell off in all the big oilies has been sharp,suggesting rebound could be equally sharp.

Any views welcome.I'm thinking £13 on RDSB,£3.50 on BP,XOM $45,EQNR $14............

No idea on price targets and timings on RDSB but technically looks to have started to possibly strengthen atm, the candles look quite promising, and there's a gap to fill.  But anything could come from left field.  I have some in my income portfolio with BP and will be adding to my SIPP shortly given the historical low price, divs and macro forecast.  But I'll hold for a long time.  I'm also looking at others though as want to pick two of the best in the sector globally.  The oil story still works for me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I doubt it will happen in fact the CWU have offered to assist the Government with the Coronavirus crisis.

How long ago was the ballot? A decent delay before the announcement tonight and things have changed re the virus?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

M S E Refugee
2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

How long ago was the ballot? A decent delay before the announcement tonight and things have changed re the virus?

 

The result was announced today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Launch of Covid-19 Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF)

 

"it will be funded by the issuance of additional central bank reserves";)

 

 

Todays the day the reflation begins.As the thread always said,direct printing into the economy was the way it would play,and we got it today,for a start anyway.Im trying to go through the different countries.Uk is a massive rates relief for all retail etc.Thats a big one,needed of course,but making it across the board is huge.Might it be the end of the rates system to save high streets?,maybe.The unlimited loan scheme needs detail,but looks like they are going to let companies borrow direct from the government at really nice rates.Looks like its saying paper up to one year?..Its a very good move from the government.The £25k cash grants are pretty much paying their rents for 6 months,no doubt designed to make people stay put for now.Im trying to see if the rates relief for retail is physical retail only,i think it is.Government get to solve a very tricky political issue here as well.Pubs etc will need more help though.This is only the start.

Transport sector didnt get anything specific yet,most of them get 75% of their income from government and councils under contract anyway.They probably just want to be able to cut amounts of buses/routes.Might be more moves here from government.They need hospital staff to get to work for instance.

Telcos bounced hard today Telefonica went up nearly 20%,showing the rubber band is pulled way back on them.Could be more pain,but the cycle should see across the board 400%+ gains in the sector.Too much debt there as well of course,but likely they get an easier cycle now.

Oil would of bounced already on the printing,but has other pressures on its head.Doesnt change the fact its one of the best things to protect against helicopter money.Likely a rubber band affect when it goes.Big oil with good downstream assets should be ok as they can expand margins in that area.Looks a terrible place to be invested,until it doesnt.

Government today took control of the economy as it would in a war.People can question the morals etc of printing like this ,but it isnt a moral question.

Print and cash gets de-valued.Dont print cash becomes worthless as we are all living in caves and tents.The government are on the right track.Its not enough yet,and more action is needed.

In time expect massive investment in supply chains coming back etc.The fact we can make enough masks etc is a signal of whats coming.

The US will circle China in navy assets in the next cycle as well i expect.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I got RSDB for 995.00 today (966.00 would have been nice) next ladder set at 8.00, again who knows if it will hit, that will be my last ladder.

I got in at 978. My next stop is 800 but may revise that to 850.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Launch of Covid-19 Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF)

 

"it will be funded by the issuance of additional central bank reserves";)

 

 

Todays the day the reflation begins.As the thread always said,direct printing into the economy was the way it would play,and we got it today,for a start anyway.Im trying to go through the different countries.Uk is a massive rates relief for all retail etc.Thats a big one,needed of course,but making it across the board is huge.Might it be the end of the rates system to save high streets?,maybe.The unlimited loan scheme needs detail,but looks like they are going to let companies borrow direct from the government at really nice rates.Looks like its saying paper up to one year?..Its a very good move from the government.The £25k cash grants are pretty much paying their rents for 6 months,no doubt designed to make people stay put for now.Im trying to see if the rates relief for retail is physical retail only,i think it is.Government get to solve a very tricky political issue here as well.Pubs etc will need more help though.This is only the start.

Transport sector didnt get anything specific yet,most of them get 75% of their income from government and councils under contract anyway.They probably just want to be able to cut amounts of buses/routes.Might be more moves here from government.They need hospital staff to get to work for instance.

Telcos bounced hard today Telefonica went up nearly 20%,showing the rubber band is pulled way back on them.Could be more pain,but the cycle should see across the board 400%+ gains in the sector.Too much debt there as well of course,but likely they get an easier cycle now.

Oil would of bounced already on the printing,but has other pressures on its head.Doesnt change the fact its one of the best things to protect against helicopter money.Likely a rubber band affect when it goes.Big oil with good downstream assets should be ok as they can expand margins in that area.Looks a terrible place to be invested,until it doesnt.

Government today took control of the economy as it would in a war.People can question the morals etc of printing like this ,but it isnt a moral question.

Print and cash gets de-valued.Dont print cash becomes worthless as we are all living in caves and tents.The government are on the right track.Its not enough yet,and more action is needed.

In time expect massive investment in supply chains coming back etc.The fact we can make enough masks etc is a signal of whats coming.

The US will circle China in navy assets in the next cycle as well i expect.

 

 

 

I saw Telefonica bounced hard into the close. BT seemed to be showing some strength all day. The small amount of Airtel Africa I bought this morning was up over 20% from my buy in price after a late rally. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The US will circle China in navy assets in the next cycle as well i expect.

This bit is both impractical and unlikely.

Missile technology has advanced to such a stange that naval assets are of questionable use against a peer competitor. In any event, the Chinese navy is enormous and heavily armed - including the new type 055, which is a match for anything the US can field.

China will also have access to the Northern passage - something that will probably be denied to the US by Russia.

And bear in mind that China and Russia will be working together, in effect making China impossible to cut off or surround as they can simply use land trade routes.

The Saker - a military analyst - has done plenty of analysis on this. The days of America being able to effectively surround either China or Russia are long gone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Errol said:

This bit is both impractical and unlikely.

Missile technology has advanced to such a stange that naval assets are of questionable use against a peer competitor. In any event, the Chinese navy is enormous and heavily armed - including the new type 055, which is a match for anything the US can field.

China will also have access to the Northern passage - something that will probably be denied to the US by Russia.

And bear in mind that China and Russia will be working together, in effect making China impossible to cut off or surround as they can simply use land trade routes.

The Saker - a military analyst - has done plenty of analysis on this. The days of America being able to effectively surround either China or Russia are long gone.

This is from a book I mentioned elsewhere (Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics).  What do you think?  It's carefully worded but seems to say it's all to be decided.

Quote

Having spent 4,000 turbulent years consolidating its land mass, China is now building a Blue Water navy. A Green Water navy patrols its maritime borders, a Blue Water navy patrols the oceans. It will take another thirty years (assuming economic progression) for China to build naval capacity to seriously challenge the most powerful seaborne force the world has ever seen – the US navy. But in the medium to short term, as it builds, and trains, and learns, the Chinese navy will bump up against its rivals on the seas; and how those bumps are managed – especially the Sino–American ones – will define great power politics in this century. The young seamen now training on the second-hand aircraft carrier (the Liaoning) China salvaged from a Ukrainian rust yard will be the ones who, if they make it to the rank of admiral, may have learnt enough to know how to take a twelve-ship carrier group across the world and back – and if necessary fight a war along the way.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Errol said:

This bit is both impractical and unlikely.

Missile technology has advanced to such a stange that naval assets are of questionable use against a peer competitor. In any event, the Chinese navy is enormous and heavily armed - including the new type 055, which is a match for anything the US can field.

The majority of the stuff that matters wont be in the public domain, and the Chinese military suffers from the same rigid structure as the Soviet Union with the penalty to actual combat that entails.

Powerful yes, but far from unbeatable and they are not going to reach the military capacity that many thought when their economy gets a good whiff of the worldwide deflation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, this is big!

Federal Reserve Board announces establishment of a Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) to support the credit needs of households and businesses

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200317b.htm

 

Borrower Eligibility
• Only primary dealers of the New York Fed are eligible to participate in the PDCF.
Eligible Collateral
• Collateral eligible for pledge under the PDCF includes all collateral eligible for
pledge in open market operations (OMO);
1 plus investment grade corporate debt
securities, international agency securities, commercial paper, municipal securities,
mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities;
2 plus equity securities.3

Foreign currency-denominated securities are not eligible for pledge under the PDCF
at this time.
• Collateral that is not priced by the clearing bank will not be eligible for pledge under
the PDCF.
• Additional collateral may become eligible at a later date upon further analysis.
Term
• Loans will be made available to primary dealers for a term of up to 90 days. 

 

 

1 An addition to OMO-eligible securities are Treasury strips.

2 For the following securities types, only AAA-rated securities are accepted: commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Other eligible securities as specified above are accepted if rated investment grade (such that BBB- securities and above). Specifically, investment grade commercial paper is accepted: commercial paper rated both A1/P1 and A2/P2.

3 The following equities would not be eligible: exchange traded funds (ETFs), unit investment trusts, mutual funds, rights and warrants

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

The majority of the stuff that matters wont be in the public domain, and the Chinese military suffers from the same rigid structure as the Soviet Union with the penalty to actual combat that entails.

Powerful yes, but far from unbeatable and they are not going to reach the military capacity that many thought when their economy gets a good whiff of the worldwide deflation.

Very much this. The black projects are decades ahead in technology, and the US have always had that advantage.

The F-117 was tribute to that when no one even knew about it until one got shot down in Yugoslavia (hats off to the way they detected the bomb hatch opening on the radar signature)

SR-71,  probably my favourite aircraft of all time (I’ve seen one up close at Imperial War museum  Duxford) has been superseded decades ago with several variants of fast mover aircraft that are still black as well as orbital weapon capability (i.e rods from god)

Never underestimate the US, they have made sure they are in front with military technology  for a long time. 

China can copy, but with innovation they lack. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...