Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

[Harley]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

.....

btw, saw your earlier post commenting on Coininvest, are buying silver?

Yup.  Have delivery of my precious.  My first and probably last the way things are!  Been meaning to do it for yonks so happy, even with a loss!

[Harley]

5 hours ago, BearyBear said:

This is the cheapest 1oz coin you can buy on Coinivest for delivery in 20 days

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/lunar-series-uk/1-oz-lunar-uk-year-of-the-pig-silver-coin-2019/

£16.25.... 60% over the spot price

Now includes VAT?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Now includes VAT?

Yet none for silver maples

[BearyBear]

21 minutes ago, Harley said:

Now includes VAT?

They say VAT free at the bottom...

[sancho panza]

19 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

https://themarketear.com/

Sounds familiar so far, market wise (faster now obviously, but no algos then just ticker tape and leisurely lunches to disseminate information), with very very different mortality rates and/or projected outcomes. No way the coronavirus is going to level 50m people. As I said, the old gits are shutting down the world to protect themselves.

 

The following article gives an insight into the discrepancies in mortality rates .Much as I would have thought-although we can't be sure without detailed data on mild/asymptomatic infections-the more pressing crisis here isn't necessarily the corona virus but it's effects on 70+ year olds with co morbidities.

The pressure on resus/ICU is immense anyway,especially given an increasing understanding and treatment of life threatening sepsis, but I can totally see why the UK govt is worried that the system can't cope.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

[headrow]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You would shoot the CEO if he didnt do that.Its crucial they keep all the cash in the business.Their overheads are staff and interest costs,the rest goes as dividends.Their debt is unsecured so they only have the coupons to worry about.They also dont know who might default on rent,though most of their tenants wont as they are the likes of B+M,Sainsbury etc.

Even when fully invested i always keep 3 years money in cash as its very important if living off dividends as you might have to take a dividend holiday.

I think the huge drop in share rice is due to the exposure they have to the pub trade. I bought more today , i've bought these at 200p before , i'm certainly taking some at 70p.

[Democorruptcy]

A UK wage rescue plan next.

[headrow]

Travis Perkins dividend gone

Marks & Spencer dividend gone

[MrXxxx]

12 minutes ago, headrow said:

Travis Perkins dividend gone

Marks & Spencer dividend gone

Retail assigned to market sensitIve purchasing...are you surprised?...the only difference is that TP had more chance over the last few years to keep more of their profits in reserve by paying lower divis...I can only assume that they didn't or the profit margins are tight in building supplies...

...this also got me thinking about @Harley divi Q above...something may give a cheap divi opportunity this year but if the company doesn't have sufficient reserves the divi, and so the share price will be cut/drop next year...a `Double Whammy`!

[headrow]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Retail assigned to market sensitIve purchasing...are you surprised?...the only difference is that TP had more chance over the last few years to keep more of their profits in reserve by paying lower divis...I can only assume that they didn't or the profit margins are tight in building supplies...

...this also got me thinking about @Harley divi Q above...something may give a cheap divi opportunity this year but if the company doesn't have sufficient reserves the divi, and so the share price will be cut/drop next year...a `Double Whammy`!

Not surprised at all.

 

Wetherspoons just done the same. 

[BearyBear]

 

36 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

A UK wage rescue plan next.

One proposal under discussion is for the UK to follow the lead of countries such as Denmark, where the government has promised to cover 75% of salaries at private companies for three months, if they promise not to let staff go.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51969708

Meanwhile Trump is asking to delay releasing jobless claims data... are we living in a national socialism already? That one plus announcing unlimited funds to buy corporations means the end of free market to me. We may see the stock market going up when economy is slowing down rapidly.

[CVG]

In other (Hydrogen / BP) news:

FRANKFURT, March 18 - A group of gas grid
operators, oil and utility firms is planning a 130-kilometre
hydrogen pipeline to supply industrial customers in north-west
Germany, Open Grid Europe (OGE) said.
German companies are keen to convert power from renewables
into hydrogen, which emits water when it burns in oxygen rather
than the CO2 released by coal, oil and natural gas. Germany is
due to adopt a hydrogen strategy soon. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N26U4EJ
OGE, which is part of the consortium including BP BP.L ,
speciality chemicals firm Evonik EVKn.De , grid firm Nowega and
RWE Generation RWEG.DE , said that the pipeline will supply
chemicals plants and refineries from a hydrogen plant to be
built by RWE at Lingen in Lower Saxony from 2022.
The target sites for the pipeline would be Lingen as well as
Marl and Gelsenkirchen in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The transport link would convert existing, but underused,
natural gas pipelines and be open for use to third parties, with
OGE only offering transport services.
However, German antitrust and energy regulations do not yet
provide for a legal framework for this type of operations.
The project is called GET H2 Nukleus, playing on the name of
the Get H2 pilot plant planned by RWE, which is envisaged to
have a capacity of 100 megawatts (MW).
This is a similar size to other German pilots such as one
planned by OGE and sector peer Amprion, called Hybridge, and
Element Eins, a joint project by TenneT IPO-TTH.AS , Gasunie
GSUNI.UL and Thyssengas.
BP and Evonik have industrial interests in the region, while
RWE intends to feed the plant from its wind power plants.
Industry uses an estimated 55 terawatt hours (TWh) of
fossil-fuel derived hydrogen in Germany, where project
developers are urging Berlin to address the legislative hurdles.
Switching to 'green' hydrogen would reduce its carbon
emissions while throwing a lifeline to gas producers, importers,
grid and storage cavern operators.

(Reporting by Vera Eckert, editing by Alexander Smith)
(([email protected]; +49 69 7565 1228; Reuters
Messaging: [email protected]))

[kibuc]

Argentina goes into full lockdown. A number of miners have exposure there, including Fortuna Silver with their Lindero project and Yamana with gold-silver Cerro Moro.

Lockdown is set to last until the 31st of March, so not too long but let's wait and see how situation evolves. They've only had 128 cases and 3 deaths so far, so those measures look a bit out of proportion.

[MrXxxx]

3 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

 

One proposal under discussion is for the UK to follow the lead of countries such as Denmark, where the government has promised to cover 75% of salaries at private companies for three months, if they promise not to let staff go.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51969708

Meanwhile Trump is asking to delay releasing jobless claims data... are we living in a national socialism already? That one plus announcing unlimited funds to buy corporations means the end of free market to me. We may see the stock market going up when economy is slowing down rapidly.

Rather ironic that the Capitalist system stated that the Communist system didn't work yet through their own mismanagement they have shown the opposite.

[BearyBear]

8 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Argentina goes into full lockdown. A number of miners have exposure there, including Fortuna Silver with their Lindero project and Yamana with gold-silver Cerro Moro.

Lockdown is set to last until the 31st of March, so not too long but let's wait and see how situation evolves. They've only had 128 cases and 3 deaths so far, so those measures look a bit out of proportion.

This may push the price of PMs up!

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

This may push the price of PMs up!

this happened to ura a few years back, one of the mines shut down and the price went thru the roof. disclaimer: I flogged it like a dead horse.

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, CVG said:

In other (Hydrogen / BP) news:

FRANKFURT, March 18 - A group of gas grid
operators, oil and utility firms is planning a 130-kilometre
hydrogen pipeline to supply industrial customers in north-west
Germany, Open Grid Europe (OGE) said.
German companies are keen to convert power from renewables
into hydrogen, which emits water when it burns in oxygen rather
than the CO2 released by coal, oil and natural gas. Germany is
due to adopt a hydrogen strategy soon. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N26U4EJ
OGE, which is part of the consortium including BP BP.L ,
speciality chemicals firm Evonik EVKn.De , grid firm Nowega and
RWE Generation RWEG.DE , said that the pipeline will supply
chemicals plants and refineries from a hydrogen plant to be
built by RWE at Lingen in Lower Saxony from 2022.
The target sites for the pipeline would be Lingen as well as
Marl and Gelsenkirchen in North Rhine-Westphalia.
The transport link would convert existing, but underused,
natural gas pipelines and be open for use to third parties, with
OGE only offering transport services.
However, German antitrust and energy regulations do not yet
provide for a legal framework for this type of operations.
The project is called GET H2 Nukleus, playing on the name of
the Get H2 pilot plant planned by RWE, which is envisaged to
have a capacity of 100 megawatts (MW).
This is a similar size to other German pilots such as one
planned by OGE and sector peer Amprion, called Hybridge, and
Element Eins, a joint project by TenneT IPO-TTH.AS , Gasunie
GSUNI.UL and Thyssengas.
BP and Evonik have industrial interests in the region, while
RWE intends to feed the plant from its wind power plants.
Industry uses an estimated 55 terawatt hours (TWh) of
fossil-fuel derived hydrogen in Germany, where project
developers are urging Berlin to address the legislative hurdles.
Switching to 'green' hydrogen would reduce its carbon
emissions while throwing a lifeline to gas producers, importers,
grid and storage cavern operators.

(Reporting by Vera Eckert, editing by Alexander Smith)
(([email protected]; +49 69 7565 1228; Reuters
Messaging: [email protected]))

Notice Evonik mentioned in there,i bought them and Solvay in the sell off as i think they are both big gainers from green energy etc.This one will use natural gas though i think,where the UK ones will use more wind electric for the process.

[Majorpain]

8 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

This may push the price of PMs up!

It will be helping, but the UK planning to print money to pay 75% of salaries for 3 months will be having a bigger effect IMO.

Fed starting to go impressively printy as well.

ECB?  Hands are tied by the Germans, they have been way too slow and are going to pay the price.

[Bricks & Mortar]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

UK planning to print money to pay 75% of salaries for 3 months will be having a bigger effect IMO.

We've always thought of money-printing as inflationary.  But, in this case, we're asking all wealth generation to cease, and only replace the economic activity with 75% of what was formerly there.

Is that still inflationary?

 

[leonardratso]

hmm oilers looking strong this morning, futures have been up all night, wonder if its another false dawn

[CVG]

2 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm oilers looking strong this morning, futures have been up all night, wonder if its another false dawn

Lots of 'positive' news today such as BP saying production not impacted by CV.

[Democorruptcy]

37 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

 

One proposal under discussion is for the UK to follow the lead of countries such as Denmark, where the government has promised to cover 75% of salaries at private companies for three months, if they promise not to let staff go.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51969708

Meanwhile Trump is asking to delay releasing jobless claims data... are we living in a national socialism already? That one plus announcing unlimited funds to buy corporations means the end of free market to me. We may see the stock market going up when economy is slowing down rapidly.

Nationalisation of firms at low share prices wouldn't be good for us?

It would give them some future income to pay for their spending promises.

[sleepwello'nights]

32 minutes ago, kibuc said:

 

Lockdown is set to last until the 31st of March, so not too long but let's wait and see how situation evolves. They've only had 128 cases and 3 deaths so far, so those measures look a bit out of proportion.

Strong measures at the onset are the correct response and will shorten the internal disruption. Then they have to quarantine international arrivals and have strict border controls. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

FTSE's flying.

 

So just sold out the Shell and Vodafone I bought a couple of days ago for a 10% profit.  £200 back from the 6K i've lost so far :-)

Everything else looks ****ed still tho,