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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Anecdotal.

I laid over in Seattle for about 6 hours the other day. Most shops shut down, but plenty still open. About 20% wearing masks, general atmosphere was ...normal? People chatting, laughing, etc. Got a nice burger, and they threw in fries. I can't recall any staff wearing masks, though most wore gloves. I'm not sure of the point of gloves. They are still going to transmit if you touch your mouth, and they are harder to clean than hands.

I think the point of wearing gloves is as a way to remind you not to touch your face.

Go shopping etc, unknowingly touch something bad, touch your mouth/eye, get home wash your hands and it's too late.

Go shopping etc, unknowingly touch something bad, wearing gloves is not normal so might remind you not to touch your face, leave shop dispose of gloves in bin outside. 

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On 26/03/2020 at 23:16, sancho panza said:

Just watched TV and there's Asst Chief Constables on telling people not to go for dog walks in the countryside or face arrest. Neither liberal or libertarian imho. 

I think that is our (clumsy) police warning others from doing similar 'non-essential' trips. Heavy handed certainly, but I guess the police can't win (too much 'politics' around these days), and would probably be accused of racism if they'd shown-off their shiny drone technology pinning down (so to speak) the likes of some inner-city yobs. I'd like to know which section of the community recently received penalty fines for illegal group gatherings, I bet it wasn't middle-class rural fogeys.   

Just to explain that I think Boris Johnson is a liberal at heart, but his 'flexible approach' to politics is probably a very good thing for the coming cycle. Though I accept that political name-tags in themselves, like our political parties, have ceased to carry the meanings they formerly had (its why I guess liberal-fascism has become a thing). Boris Johnson's current lifestyle, six children by 3 different mothers, etc, and family background is extremely liberal. His father is an environmentalist and worked for the EU commission. Boris himself was in favour of the EU until recently, and as London Mayor even spoke up for an illegal immigrant amnesty.  

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23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its highly likely the west will pull back from China, and both blocks will then enter a reflation race. Im not 100% sold on Russia backing the Chinks. They might side with the west yet.

I certainly hope Russia and the West enter a new era of détente. After all, I own some Russian oilies!

For investment growth i think the Emerging Countries to focus on are: Russia/Eastern Europe/SE Asia(mainly Korea, Vietnam, Singapore). South America, China and India are in the main far too disfunctional both socially and politically. Reading this blog has shown me that there is little upside in taking on risks, especially when there are better alternatives. 

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21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very good position yes,and i think they might side with the west, as long as we play ball of course. I think they would quite like the status quo to remain them and the US, China would be harder to deal with. Far better to let China and India struggle against each other in the region.

DB, what struggle do you envision happening? I thought China was doing the global manufacturing and India the global services... or has this simplistic formula (if it ever existed) ended?

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3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

The virtue signalling luvvy brigade are going to have difficulty convincing anyone that someone who shouldn't even be in the country ought be given a ventilator ahead of their Granny

Well the general public didn't `bat an eyelid` before the virus scapegoat scenario, when the government gave foreign aid to the Indian government whilst they placed sending a rocket to the moon above their own nations welfare....do you think they will behave any different now that Boris has played the Churchillian card and got everyone `dewey eyed` about those magnificent people in the NHS?

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4 hours ago, No One said:

I'd like to know this.

I frequent the Shares and Trading section of this forum but there aren't many active users there besides you me and @Ponty Mython

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/forum/21-shares-trading/

I'm trying to create an excel sheet of all the stocks and shares available on my platform to work out what stocks have dipped the most and then I'll try to filter out those who are most like to recover  and grow to gain in the upswing. So far I've had a gun ho approach  which is basically a hail-marry that they pick up on Monday after markets open based on the massive stimulus package passed Friday afternoon.

For those interested this is a thread I have going on my picks:

I am hoping to get a deposit for a house by saving in stocks and shares so they go up as house prices go down.

Difference is NoOne we have different goals, yours is midterm to get a deposit, so more `in low,out high` trading, whereas mine is long term capital preservation so `buy & hold with divis`.

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3 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I just hope they still keep in place the 25% lump sum withdrawal tax free leaving any other withdrawal under the personal tax allowance also tax free.

Well first time I `catch wind` of this policy changing is when I will be retiring early!

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2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

This one is probably for DB but does anyone know can countries like Saudi or the UAE, India, Pakistan etc do QE or is it only major currencies. The Saudi reserves have really come down from peak and at low oil prices are really going to evaporate over the next couple of years

Any country with an independent currency can do QE, its just how well received it is by the others that matters, just ask Zimbabwe about this!

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18 hours ago, Lavalas said:

My god that is such a good quote. I would have done a lot of things very differently if I’d had that imprinted on my brain from an early age.

Lavalas, no need for imprinting and indoctrination - sorry, know you didn't mean it that way!!

But how about those things being taught at school? So no more propaganda, replace it with critical-thinking. Instead, our schooling system (12th in the world rankings despite the money spent) teaches pupils, or should I say students/young people?, the opposite. Already, we are beginning to reap what we sow, simplistic envion-'mentalist' politics, catastrophising every tangential event or personally held opinion, no wonder mental ill-health is rampant. 

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M S E Refugee
1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Well the general public didn't `bat an eyelid` before the virus scapegoat scenario, when the government gave foreign aid to the Indian government whilst they placed sending a rocket to the moon above their own nations welfare....do you think they will behave any different now that Boris has played the Churchillian card and got everyone `dewey eyed` about those magnificent people in the NHS?

When we have a situation like Spain or Italy I think the political landscape will be very different,people have had enough of globalization,transgender issues,feminism and diversity etc.

The UK is a powder keg and people are sick and tired of having to moderate their language in their own Country and realise it is impossible to please the minority groups as they keep coming out with more outlandish demands.

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1 hour ago, JMD said:

Reading this blog has shown me that there is little upside in taking on risks, especially when there are better alternatives.

Hopefully no longer necessary either, as one of durhamborns opening posts mentions chasing yield further along the risk curve for the same result...if all that ends, far less risk? 

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50 minutes ago, JMD said:

Lavalas, no need for imprinting and indoctrination - sorry, know you didn't mean it that way!!

But how about those things being taught at school? So no more propaganda, replace it with critical-thinking. 

Never gonna happen.  The 'system' needs people just clever enough to keep the lights on, and no more than that.  I bet most of us have tried to have the house price conversation at some point....

It would be a massive own goal if people started thinking about things even as much as your average DOSBODder xD

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2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Putin was well up for that early in his tenure, if the EU in particular weren't such knobs about it. Russians traditionally view themselves as European. Snubbing the WW2 victory parades, which didn't happen during the Cold War, is just childish.

Indeed. In fact I think that Russia considers itself as THE only remaining custodian of European values and ideals! Arrogant maybe, but its one of the reasons I think Russia and the West will come back together politically.

btw Yeltsin was a disaster for the Russian people and corruption spread under his presidency. Not sure how hard the West tried to engage with Russia during that period, perhaps the chaos of the time prevented this. But the US (Empire?... not being critical of the US; there is always a 'top-dog empire') in particular assumed rather arrogantly that the prevailing global-liberal economic agenda would simply take hold in Russia. The US is pretty useless when it comes to 'nation building' as we have come to see time and again since then. 

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2 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, what struggle do you envision happening? I thought China was doing the global manufacturing and India the global services... or has this simplistic formula (if it ever existed) ended?

They dont like each other very much.China could start pushing into Pakistan etc and India would push back.

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M S E Refugee
13 minutes ago, JMD said:

Indeed. In fact I think that Russia considers itself as THE only remaining custodian of European values and ideals! Arrogant maybe, but its one of the reasons I think Russia and the West will come back together politically.

btw Yeltsin was a disaster for the Russian people and corruption spread under his presidency. Not sure how hard the West tried to engage with Russia during that period, perhaps the chaos of the time prevented this. But the US (Empire?... not being critical of the US; there is always a 'top-dog empire') in particular assumed rather arrogantly that the prevailing global-liberal economic agenda would simply take hold in Russia. The US is pretty useless when it comes to 'nation building' as we have come to see time and again since then. 

The Russians are pariah's mainly because of The Democrat Party.The EU and the Labour Party,those groups have made it impossible for any leader to have a meaningful relationship with Putin for fear of being dubbed a Russian asset.

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Even if the West didn't like Russia, they should have worked desperately to create good relations - if only to keep Russia from forming a strategic alliance with China. This alliance has now happened, however, and now Russia/China are bound in a deeply strategic and mutually beneficial relationship.

The EU should opt to go with with Russia/China now, leaving the US dead in the water.

There is the opportunity to form a continuous trading landmass, stretching from China through to Portugal. No sea routes would be required. This is something the US has been desperately trying to prevent for decades.

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I need some help with an excel sheet, how can I download stock prices into excel on a daily basis based on a seeries of ticker/instrument names?

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48 minutes ago, Errol said:

Even if the West didn't like Russia, they should have worked desperately to create good relations - if only to keep Russia from forming a strategic alliance with China. This alliance has now happened, however, and now Russia/China are bound in a deeply strategic and mutually beneficial relationship.

The EU should opt to go with with Russia/China now, leaving the US dead in the water.

There is the opportunity to form a continuous trading landmass, stretching from China through to Portugal. No sea routes would be required. This is something the US has been desperately trying to prevent for decades.

Quite agree about Russia but China, f**k no. No way would I want us to cosy up to them over the US even if it meant me getting poorer. Culture is far more important than money. The way the Chinese view themselves I daresay is not too dissimilar to how the Germans in the 30s and 40s considered themselves the "master race". The Russians can be respected and in terms of culture they at least live on this planet, they can be understood. If the Russians are considered untrustworthy then I don't even know an adjective to describe what the Chinese are.

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37 minutes ago, No One said:

I need some help with an excel sheet, how can I download stock prices into excel on a daily basis based on a seeries of ticker/instrument names?

You could try this free connector....

https://www.techrepublic.com/article/track-stocks-like-a-pro-with-a-free-excel-add-in/

I think you need a recent version of Excel.... 2013 or later.

(I am so tight I'm still using Excel 2010 and for that I use 'web queries' within Excel to get the stock pages from Hargreaves Lansdown then scrape the price data from that. Messy, slow and wouldn't recommend it though. The connector above should be pretty good I think.)

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Castlevania
40 minutes ago, No One said:

I need some help with an excel sheet, how can I download stock prices into excel on a daily basis based on a seeries of ticker/instrument names?

If you use the Google spreadsheet then you can link to Google Finance quite easily.

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19 minutes ago, Loki said:

Amateur.  Office 2003 here xD

2007 :D

29 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

If you use the Google spreadsheet then you can link to Google Finance quite easily.

Wait what?

 

How ?

Teachme this dark magic senpaei.

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