Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Do you mean you paid money for a spreadsheet?

https://www.libreoffice.org/

I didn't say that 

[Castlevania]

42 minutes ago, No One said:

@Castlevania in all seriousness how can I link this

 

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en

This is reminding me of a shares program I wrote in VB for fun at home. It went off and downloaded daily closing prices and appended them to a database. I could monitor various portfolios and throw charts together on selected criteria. Just checked and I still have the code. Looking at the date of the last changes it was year 2000. I must have got bored when the dot com bubble burst 

[Loki]

I don't know if I'm more impressed by that or the fact you have files from 2000

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They dont like each other very much.China could start pushing into Pakistan etc and India would push back.

Or maybe the Chinese will move their manufacturing base to Africa where labour/production is inexpensive (no longer the case in China), and develop the other high value sectors with the own geographical boundaries?

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Errol said:

he EU should opt to go with with Russia/China now, leaving the US dead in the water.

And where does that leave the UK?

[harp]

A fantastic article for those interested in big oil.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/lets-talk-about-investing-in-oil-stocks-and-the-oil-majors/

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I predict a riot... Or 20.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-italy-becoming-impatient-with-lockdown-and-social-unrest-is-brewing-11965122

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Had a delivery today from asda. 

I could have kissed the man. 

I told him he was a hero, he said, he was just doing his job. 

We can see now the people we should value in society. 

Bless these people. 

[Barnsey]

If the following forecast comes to fruition, 2020 will be the 2nd worst year for GDP growth since 1949 (as far back as I can find data), only 2009 was worse by -0.3%

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, harp said:

A fantastic article for those interested in big oil.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/lets-talk-about-investing-in-oil-stocks-and-the-oil-majors/

I think thats probably the best article on the big oil companies iv ever read.

"You’ll learn to take delight in the fact they reduce their own oil output when crude prices collapse but refining margins are high, buying other companies’ oil on the open market to feed into the refineries so they can keep their own reserves for the day when sky-high prices return.)"

[leonardratso]

5 hours ago, No One said:

@Castlevania in all seriousness how can I link this

 

have a look here;

i think the google sheets account is still shared and open.

[Don Coglione]

7 hours ago, leonardratso said:

have a look here;

i think the google sheets account is still shared and open.

I didn't mention it at the time, but I won that!

If only INFA had maintained its performance from the end of 2018...

[Castlevania]

Centrica shares were at £1.45 each. How times change.

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Exactly,we simply cant know when this virus will end,or when markets will stop falling.However we can road map the response from CBs and governments.This end of cycle couldnt be any clearer that the consumer is finished,dead,dodo.Governments can default,or inflate.They will inflate because they can print as much as they want in a deflation with almost zero risk of hyper inflation,that simply isnt on the table until the end of the next cycle.

Iv got some Shell at £13.50,some at £9.30 and everything else im buying similar.The next cycle will be industrial,my road map was about 70% clear on that,now its pretty much 100%.Being locked in the house iv been doing lots of cross market work on different sectors.For instance the scale of the demand shock will push back electric car manufacture by a few years minimum.Less cars will be bought,but more older cars will stay on the road.

Supply chains are certain to return and increase energy use,but the countries seeing the loss like China will be inflating themselves.

The key point as well is that building assets is going to get more expensive,and companies who already own those assets will adjust their prices upwards.

Governments will also pull back on welfare spending going forward,and tax perks like the 40% pension one are 100% certain to go.The other certain one is NI paid on pensions etc once you retire.There is no way they will keep that.They might merge income tax and NI to make up for it.

 

ref the cross market work,feel free to keep us posted.Interesi

ref the virus well worth watching this clip below from Sky News.As per discussion on here some in the MSM are starting to look at the bigger picture ie the economic costs and the potential toll on mental health.Watch all the way to the end -only a few mintues- regarding suicides,deaths that follow unemployment/downturns ,we have 1600 people die every day in the UK.Govt now downgrading expected mortalities to 8000.

I personally think peak panic is nearly over.People are getting tired of the hysteria and I'm sorry if that offends but I think the govt have cultivated an air of fear about this illness in conjunction with an MSM with advertising to sell whislt the realsitic chance of dying has been vastly overinflated.Whilst I'm not denying this illness can be a killer and is putting pressure on ICU units,the reality is that the mortality rate may well be as low as 0.5% according to one former professor of patholgy I'll link to below.

https://news.sky.com/video/share-11964813

 

also former Professor of Pathology/NHS Consultant Pathologist-so no career risk, he can be honest.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

'That’s why, when Britain had 590 diagnosed cases, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, suggested that the real figure was probably between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, ten to 20 times higher. If he’s right, the headline death rate due to this virus is likely to be ten to 20 times lower, say 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent. That puts the Covid-19 mortality rate in the range associated with infections like flu.'

 

19 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Anecdotal.

I laid over in Seattle for about 6 hours the other day. Most shops shut down, but plenty still open. About 20% wearing masks, general atmosphere was ...normal? People chatting, laughing, etc. Got a nice burger, and they threw in fries. I can't recall any staff wearing masks, though most wore gloves. I'm not sure of the point of gloves. They are still going to transmit if you touch your mouth, and they are harder to clean than hands. It didn't feel like a bat flu hot spot, and I saw a curve yesterday for Washington State that looked like it was flattening out. I don't think they locked down the city.

About 50 people on the BA 777. I have never seen a cabin crew enjoying themselves so much, even the pilot was stifling giggles on announcements. Perhaps gallows humour, but they really didn't seem that bothered with things, and were very much enjoying having FA work to do! None wore masks. Food (business) was a brown bag with a paninni and crappy snacks. No issue with that, I brought my own food on. They gave minimal food handling as the reason, fair enough. No booze, but were perfectly capable of getting me soft drinks on ice, so I don't see why they didn't have simple booze options. I asked for a washbag - none. I said "what's that got to do with a virus?" and the steward gave me some bull about overall catering. "Are you sure it's not to do with cost saving?" ...wry smile. So BA has not let the opportunity pass to save a fiver, which is all well and good if you consider all your customers are idiots.

I asked him about their future. Some will furlough, but they've notified govt about coming redundancies, and they are currently wrangling with the unions. So I think, like many companies, they will use this crisis to solve staffing/contract/union problems. He also said they won't be getting government support as they have substantial cash reserves. I don't know what form of financial support he was referring to: bailout or salary backstop for furloughed employees? Heathrow - nothing open in T5, not even a tea or coffee. Got my bags quickly for once!

Glad you're back CP.Could have been a proper pain getting stuck over there.A friend was working in Mayfair,stopped in a 5 star hotel where he was the only customer.He was saying it'd be really crap getting stuck in a hotel-however nice- for 6 weeks.

Interesting thought though as to what will happen to airlines more generally.BA's balance sheet is the sort of thing that would have me running a mile unless it was a utility which for obvious reasons,can carry a lot of debt cheaply.It has a lot of debt/lease obligations and it's assets-mostly planes I'd presume-are prone to marginal buyers causing price weakness.

Having said that,I've started wondering how low they'll go.

On a personal note,the only time I ever flew business class was when I accompanied my wife to New York before the little ones arrived.She gave the good news and then said words to the effect of,'sorry it's with BA'....which says it all.She's amazed how they've managed to survive against more service orientated companies like Emirates but reckons the flight slots have been pivotal.

[Lavalas]

15 hours ago, No One said:

I need some help with an excel sheet, how can I download stock prices into excel on a daily basis based on a seeries of ticker/instrument names?

Not what you asked for but this seems like a useful new tool that I’ll have a play around with...

 

[sancho panza]

19 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think the point of wearing gloves is as a way to remind you not to touch your face.

Go shopping etc, unknowingly touch something bad, touch your mouth/eye, get home wash your hands and it's too late.

Go shopping etc, unknowingly touch something bad, wearing gloves is not normal so might remind you not to touch your face, leave shop dispose of gloves in bin outside. 

Mrs P works in food production and sus that workers often get confused about whether the gloves are to protect the food or themselves. Says a lot of cross contamination occurs as people fail to change frequently enough. 

[Loki]

28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

also former Professor of Pathology/NHS Consultant Pathologist-so no career risk, he can be honest.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

superb article thanks for sharing

 

12 hours ago, harp said:

A fantastic article for those interested in big oil.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/lets-talk-about-investing-in-oil-stocks-and-the-oil-majors/

Thanks, I have PDF'd and saved this!

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Barnsey said:

If the following forecast comes to fruition, 2020 will be the 2nd worst year for GDP growth since 1949 (as far back as I can find data), only 2009 was worse by -0.3%

Allowing for the lags and the fact that the govt are hell bent on doubling down on their current lock down policy to try and cover the fact that their Corona testing programme has been woeful compared to Germany, Singapore and South Korea,then the unmitigated disaster that's coming to the service orientated UK will likely be more than apparent by the time Q2 figures get published.

 

Edit to add FT article that cab be read for free on mobiles about how UK govt has bungled the testing advised by WHO.Truly incredible that South Korea had a nationwide programme running four weeks after first diagnosis which was circa jan 20th. It's the end of march and were just starting to test for super spreaders in the NHS 

https://www.ft.com/content/fa747fbd-c19e-4bac-9c37-d46afc9393fb?shareType=nongift

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, harp said:

A fantastic article for those interested in big oil.

https://www.joshuakennon.com/lets-talk-about-investing-in-oil-stocks-and-the-oil-majors/

Superb .. I did indeed view our oilies purchased recently as generational purchases.the RDSB at £20 -£23 will get traded.

I think theres a chance we might get another bite at the prices from last week..heres hoping.

49 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Centrica shares were at £1.45 each. How times change.

think I've won if we invert the table.worst timer in the market

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Centrica shares were at £1.45 each. How times change.

Don't remind me, I bought a fuck-tonne of them at that price!

[Errol]

UK Government warning this morning that lockdown will last a significant period.

We'll be lucky if it doesn't carry on until July/August.

[Noallegiance]

13 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I predict a riot... Or 20.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-italy-becoming-impatient-with-lockdown-and-social-unrest-is-brewing-11965122

Well, I hope they keep six feet apart as they riot.

Tut.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

UK Government warning this morning that lockdown will last a significant period.

We'll be lucky if it doesn't carry on until July/August.

I'd say August for the lock down to end.  Everyone will be patting the tories on the back for "saving" us, then WHAM, 3 to 6 months later we'll be in lock down again.

[DurhamBorn]

49 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'd say August for the lock down to end.  Everyone will be patting the tories on the back for "saving" us, then WHAM, 3 to 6 months later we'll be in lock down again.

People will ignore it within 8 weeks.The reason they are locking down is because they made massive mistakes.No testing,letting infected people arrive.The answer is to test like crazy and lock down areas where they get an infection.London should of been locked down,instead they simply let millions in and out every day.Id say the way they have handled it has been a disaster.Each day they should be putting up the number of deaths compared to the same week last year.Its pointless saying 1000 a week died of corona if the death rate has only increased by 100.Its obvious to anyone who thinks this through many many more will die of other reasons going forward thanks to the lock down.

Its brutal,but at some point people will ask why a young family should have their lives ruined to give someone who is 80 and smoked all their lives,drank heavily,eaten crap etc live an extra 3 months.Almost everyone who dies in hospital dies of an infection,its just what finishes most people off who are dieing.

When the government pushes out the few younger who dont have any medical history it seems fishy as well.Previous good health?,what does that mean.One i saw looked very over weight for instance.How many have had terrible diets and low immune systems?.I reckon most will have low Vit D as well,as is always the case at the end of winter in the UK who dont supplement (5000 a day and vitamin K2)

The UK economy is service based mostly,and then small companies,the idea you can cut off 100% of cashflow and they will somehow survive is insane.

Interesting times.