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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Big oil will be buying it in now rather than pumping their own.They have the luxury of being integrated and making bigger margins on refining when its cheap.In short ,the Saudi's are complete idiots.

Of course, but the British Government currently has an unlimited printing press and the Saudi's and Russians are giving it away for a limited time only.  

8 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Wonder what it'd take to recommission a place like Inchindown - or if any of the other other old military fuel stores might be better suited.  This says it holds 100,000 tonnes, or about 800,000 barrels

Thats the one i was looking at, although like it the majority of the military fuel infrastructure went post 1991, and it was bunker fuel so no idea if it will store the modern stuff.  There is still quite  a lot of capacity to fill if it could be, even down to making sure all ships are topped up.

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49 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Telco firms giving money away now

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-agrees-measures-with-telecoms-companies-to-support-vulnerable-consumers-through-covid-19

I'm already paying £17.50 for unlimited data, minutes, texts, up your prices FFS to help my shares :) 

BT said they had seen a 27% increase on people upgrading their service,Telefonica similar in Spain,so i expect they are quite happy to "do the right thing" and allow people to pay their debts off later.So far in this crisis the telcos have done a superb job.Hopefully they we be re-rated upwards once things settle down.Probably take a hit on lost revenue from business of course.

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Re: oil storage Wonder if Infrastrata Islandmagee cavern would be suitable? They already acquired Harland and Wolfe which i thought was an interesting play based on this thread

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1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

This is wild! 
Wondering what you all think?  Is he just ramping his product?
https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-broadcast-interview-available-now-3-28-2020/

EDIT TO ADD - Would they take their chance to collapse the currency system under cover of coronavirus?
 

Sounds like ramping their product/service to me. Thing is the governments have to play this carefully. They have a golden chance to blame the Chinese for the financial dislocation/disruption. Average voter will probably buy it if their savings and deflation cycle stocks are only wiped out by inflation slowly/in 10 years time.... they'll have forgotten about it all by then. But if they let fiat currency collapse completely... why would they do that when even my old mum would suss them out. After all the've been telling us how 'strong' the financial system is these days. They'd get themselves strung up from the lamp posts!

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TheCountOfNowhere

This is a funny one

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Refiners-Are-Having-To-Pay-To-Produce-Gasoline.html

Refiners Are Having To Pay To Produce Gasoline

 

How do people see the markets this week ? 

I think it's going to be a long steady decline all week, people must be realising this thing aint going away any time soon.

 

 

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Don Coglione
9 minutes ago, Loki said:

Re: oil storage Wonder if Infrastrata Islandmagee cavern would be suitable? They already acquired Harland and Wolfe which i thought was an interesting play based on this thread

By the time they build those fucking caverns (if they ever do), oil will be $200 a barrel!

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8 minutes ago, Loki said:

Re: oil storage Wonder if Infrastrata Islandmagee cavern would be suitable? They already acquired Harland and Wolfe which i thought was an interesting play based on this thread

Not built yet and its gas.  The MOD owned 20 million odd barrel facility in Plumley, mothballed since 1985ish, would be a better bet.

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2 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

By the time they build those fucking caverns (if they ever do), oil will be $200 a barrel!

I did think that! xD

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Not built yet and its gas.  The MOD owned 20 million odd barrel facility in Plumley, mothballed since 1985ish, would be a better bet.

Ah ok. Hope our lot can join the dots

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
 
Paging @Harley @DurhamBorn @sancho panza @BobthebuilderAND all the other Gardner's AND Fellow SCRIMPERS on this thread, here's how to get of some of the best gardening advice I’ve ever heard!
 
AS food is about to ROCKET in price over the next cycle...Discover How To GROW FOOD For FREE!
 
This 224 Page book "Grow Food for Free" reveals how to do it ...EVEN without a garden!
Hint... a used car tire!
 
(I've posted the PDF book download link at the Economic Survival & Breakdown Of Society thread here) ITS FREE at NO cost:D
 
@MrXxxx This is NOT off-topic!:P
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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

This is NOT off-topic!

Thats a great video, perfect for Sancho Panza. I think we might be talking about this stuff a lot this year, and pizza again maybe.

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This is a funny one

 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Refiners-Are-Having-To-Pay-To-Produce-Gasoline.html

Refiners Are Having To Pay To Produce Gasoline

 

How do people see the markets this week ? 

I think it's going to be a long steady decline all week, people must be realising this thing aint going away any time soon.

 

 

The question is why would people care what the markets do this week,next week,even this year?.Nobody knows.They could fall 10% tomorrow then go up 20% Tuesday.Anyone who invests worrying about day to day,or month to month movements shouldnt invest in anything ever.Oil will be $200 to $300 by 2028 and people should be buying big oil right now.Set ladders of course,but be buying now.The cycle has ended as we expected,and the printing has started as we expected.Its only a matter of time before things turn.The energy sector is in a perfect storm at the moment,so its likely the prices are way undershooting and thats perfect for long term buyers.Every time CBs de-value their currency by printing they are storing up price growth in commods.It doesnt seem it now,but the biggest threat to wealth isnt the bat flu,its inflation.Shell could go down to £8,but its very likely to be over £40 by 2028 and another £30 in dividends.

 

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25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The question is why would people care what the markets do this week,next week,even this year?.Nobody knows.They could fall 10% tomorrow then go up 20% Tuesday.Anyone who invests worrying about day to day,or month to month movements shouldnt invest in anything ever.Oil will be $200 to $300 by 2028 and people should be buying big oil right now.Set ladders of course,but be buying now.The cycle has ended as we expected,and the printing has started as we expected.Its only a matter of time before things turn.The energy sector is in a perfect storm at the moment,so its likely the prices are way undershooting and thats perfect for long term buyers.Every time CBs de-value their currency by printing they are storing up price growth in commods.It doesnt seem it now,but the biggest threat to wealth isnt the bat flu,its inflation.Shell could go down to £8,but its very likely to be over £40 by 2028 and another £30 in dividends.

 

DB you’re a Gentleman. Down a bit right now and I Do Not Give A f**k because I’m learning so much now myself with your incredible (DYOR) guidance and my own digging  every day.
 

I've learnt more in this thread than I could ever have dreamed. Thanks to yourself.
 

I am still watching the pm space at the moment and find myself almost laughing at some of the news and politics stories trying to keep up with the Macro. 
 

So I want to say thanks so much man Keep It Up. 

I never expected to be sitting on Oilies and PM stocks and even also in some of the URA stuff waiting to see what might happen. 
 

Owe you Several Pints...and the odd rabbit.

Looking forward to meeting you at some stage. 

 

 

 

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TheCountOfNowhere
53 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The question is why would people care what the markets do this week,next week,even this year?.

 

Day trading to pull back some of out considerable losses. 

There's money to be made, sitting on our backsides patting ourselves on the back is all well and good but it could be much better. 

Id rather buy long at the very bottom than ladder into a market that might not see the light of day for 20 years. 

Better to know what the market might do thsn not.

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Don Coglione

Re-posting this from the Coronavirus sub-forum, as I think it is relevant and is likely to receive a greater audience here:

What would be the probability of stock exchanges being closed indefinitely through this "crisis"? Clearly there will be a once-in-a-century buying opportunity at some point, but that won't be much use if the great unwashed are denied access to the low, low bargains.

Also, the the impending de facto nationalisation of many companies, even entire industries (if the state is paying your wages, you are working for the state) could hammer share prices, possibly permanently?

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37 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

What would be the probability of stock exchanges being closed indefinitely through this "crisis"?

My access to my local supermarkets is now reduced and controlled so, yes, why not the stock markets too. I had no idea I would be struggling to get access to my own cash in 2007/8 ( NR and Icesave) until one day... I was. Happy to have built a position in some future facing stock and PMs already rather than waiting for the bottom in a now much riskier environment.

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The exchanges have had some time to get some contingency plans in place, from a logistics point of view there is no reason why they could not stay open.

The governments could order them shut, but I think they would have done so already. 

This 'once in a lifetime' buying opportunity supposedly was around when the FTSE went below 5,000, I do think we may get several bites of that cherry.

I don't believe nationalisation would be happening, at least not on a large scale. And for those companies that may end up very reliant on bailouts I think it's priced in already, with share prices more concerned with earnings power over a longer period. Things such as IAG or Go-Ahead are less than half their price pre-crisis.

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TheCountOfNowhere

Oil price sinks and FTSE 100 drops as coronavirus recession hits demand - business live

 

Brent crude back to 2002 prices.

 

Brent crude falls below $23

The selloff in the oil price is now accelerating, driving Brent crude below $23 per barrel for the first time since November 2002.

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PaulParanoia
9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The question is why would people care what the markets do this week,next week,even this year?.Nobody knows.They could fall 10% tomorrow then go up 20% Tuesday.Anyone who invests worrying about day to day,or month to month movements shouldnt invest in anything ever.Oil will be $200 to $300 by 2028 and people should be buying big oil right now.Set ladders of course,but be buying now.The cycle has ended as we expected,and the printing has started as we expected.Its only a matter of time before things turn.The energy sector is in a perfect storm at the moment,so its likely the prices are way undershooting and thats perfect for long term buyers.Every time CBs de-value their currency by printing they are storing up price growth in commods.It doesnt seem it now,but the biggest threat to wealth isnt the bat flu,its inflation.Shell could go down to £8,but its very likely to be over £40 by 2028 and another £30 in dividends.

 

Hi DB, maximum respect for your insights and knowledge throughout this thread.  I see where you're coming from with the above but my approach is to run two accounts.  One for long-term investments and another for day / week trading.  I'm looking to fund my pension in the long term account and supplement my income in the trading account.  In the last month I've taken profits from the trading account to fund a nice holiday when this is all over.  Why not!  I'd hope to still be around in 2028, but who knows what will happen.  We all need to have a little fun along the way.

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Don Coglione
4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Forgive me father for I have sinned (again), 36p this time. I don't want to mention the ticker, for fear of making people wince.

No name needed!

Mental. I assume you are looking at a cheeky trade?

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Democorruptcy
5 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

No name needed!

Mental. I assume you are looking at a cheeky trade?

Maybe I should send an email to Shell/BP and suggest they buy them out for 99p. A bit of psychological pricing goes a long way. Actually all the adverts these days spread the price for something over a long period. I could say "less than 2p a week for a year"?

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