Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Well I finally did what I should have done months ago and pulled the plug on the dog that shall not be named.

Now watch it soar! 

Not sure why when you are probably being more sensible than me but a cartoon came to mind. You can have the last laugh if mine goes to nothing!

How to draw Castlevania? 

[Democorruptcy]

36 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

It has been shit for a fortnight.

I tried to load up my account to fill my boots with oilies at the (brief) low 2 weeks ago. No dice.

Lots of to-ing and fro-ing, eventually they admitted that the problem was theirs and we found a way to resolve the issue.

By which time, the oilies had jumped 30-40-%...

Well I just tried 2 different browsers then a 2nd ISP and each time all I got was white space where things should be loading. It's better now. I ask because with so many people being at home the internet will obviously be busier than usual but other websites are OK.

[Craig]

11 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well I just tried 2 different browsers then a 2nd ISP and each time all I got was white space where things should be loading. It's better now. I ask because with so many people being at home the internet will obviously be busier than usual but other websites are OK.

Weird. I've never had any bother either through Chrome or on the Android app. 

[afly]

5 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Well I finally did what I should have done months ago and pulled the plug on the dog that shall not be named.

Now watch it soar! 

Don't worry, I'm on my 54th ladder 

[sancho panza]

hattip Daily Shot.

Fed has been lsitening to our own @DurhamBorn

 

United States: The speed of the Federal Reserve’s securities purchases has been unprecedented. The chart below compares the current quantitative easing (QE) trajectory to previous programs.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, @TayTayLLP

 

Will the Fed’s balance sheet reach $9 trillion?

Source: @financialtimes; Read full article

According to BofA Global Research, the Fed will fully fund the massive 2020 deficit. It’s the US version of Abenomics.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, @TayTayLLP

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Well I finally did what I should have done months ago and pulled the plug on the dog that shall not be named.

Now watch it soar! 

Say it ain't so CV.We're down that much it'd torment me forever if it did a Next.

[sancho panza]

@MvR

Starting to look at running some call option trades on FCX and XOM initally.I had a look around at some other randoms eg KGC and the spreads were wide as......FCX and XOM look liquid and spreads not too wide even at the deep out of the money strikes.

Is that a function of the volatility in the less liquid names  or is this a normal state of affiars?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Hello All

Long time lurker, followed the thread from the beginning and finally decided DB’s warnings of inflation destroying my wealth can no longer be ignored.

 

Never bought a share in my life so just after some very basic advice.

 

Am I correct in thinking I need to open the s+s ISA with the platform I intend to use for buying the shares? HL, for instance? If so can anyone recommend one?

 

Im looking to buy and hold for the duration of the shitstorm to come, so I won’t be making many trades.

 

Thanks in advance.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

hattip Daily Shot.

Fed has been lsitening to our own @DurhamBorn

 

United States: The speed of the Federal Reserve’s securities purchases has been unprecedented. The chart below compares the current quantitative easing (QE) trajectory to previous programs.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, @TayTayLLP

 

Will the Fed’s balance sheet reach $9 trillion?

Source: @financialtimes; Read full article

According to BofA Global Research, the Fed will fully fund the massive 2020 deficit. It’s the US version of Abenomics.

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, @TayTayLLP

I think Fed might get to between $15 and $20 trillion.Incredible to think the CBs are funding the full deficit,but they are.The BOE has funded the UK working age welfare system since 2008.Every penny of those tax credits housing benefit and DLA/PIP funded through inflation on everyone else.

What most will miss is that what the Fed and the government are saying here is we arent prepared to pay the private sector to lend us money.They are telling the bond markets you will have to put your money somewhere else or have it inflated away.

This is the extreme of macro strategy.They are injecting into the financial system but forcing it out into equity and corporate debt.Rightly so.Trumps tweets about infrastructure will roll out around the world.Governments only get the chance to monetize and invest in the economy on this scale at the end of dis-inflation cycles,so maybe twice or three times a century.They will take it.

They would never say it,but they have decided what they always do in these situations.Inflation is the less evil outcome.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hello All

Long time lurker, followed the thread from the beginning and finally decided DB’s warnings of inflation destroying my wealth can no longer be ignored.

 

Never bought a share in my life so just after some very basic advice.

 

Am I correct in thinking I need to open the s+s ISA with the platform I intend to use for buying the shares? HL, for instance? If so can anyone recommend one?

 

Im looking to buy and hold for the duration of the shitstorm to come, so I won’t be making many trades.

 

Thanks in advance.

Yes you open it with the one you want to use.HL is my no1 choice,due to size and they offer a very good range of shares etc.

Inflation is coming,but no need to worry too much for now,deflation is still everywhere.The main damage from inflation will come between 2025 and 2028.Thats when i expect it to go from 5%-7% to 15%-25%.Once it gets going though i dont see any pullbacks,it will just build and build.Those number assume the printing is only getting started though.If they stopped now we would get systemic collapse.

[sancho panza]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think Fed might get to between $15 and $20 trillion.Incredible to think the CBs are funding the full deficit,but they are.The BOE has funded the UK working age welfare system since 2008.Every penny of those tax credits housing benefit and DLA/PIP funded through inflation on everyone else.

What most will miss is that what the Fed and the government are saying here is we arent prepared to pay the private sector to lend us money.They are telling the bond markets you will have to put your money somewhere else or have it inflated away.

This is the extreme of macro strategy.They are injecting into the financial system but forcing it out into equity and corporate debt.Rightly so.Trumps tweets about infrastructure will roll out around the world.Governments only get the chance to monetize and invest in the economy on this scale at the end of dis-inflation cycles,so maybe twice or three times a century.They will take it.

They would never say it,but they have decided what they always do in these situations.Inflation is the less evil outcome.

And therein lies the lessons of the last ten years for me.

When I first found this thread on ToS and your predictions about govt spending directly into the economy I hadn't really thought about it or how right you'd be.

Two/three years down the line and here we are.......first hint of a debt deflation(no firm data as yet) and we're off to the races.Surreal...

We finished the bulk of our last two years work today.Finsihed RDSB/BP/EQNR/FCX,lifted XOM 25% and then anotehr 25% tmrw,bought some Intrepid/Mosaic/ICL..........feels weird to jsut get ready to sit there and watch.We got a few loose ends but that's about us fir now.

Thanks to everyone on here who's educated me with their tuppenysworth......

 

It's also given me pause for thought ref where I was two years ago and got me thining where this thread has taken me and whilst I remain a firm credit deflationista,I have learned to accept that price infaltion can run along side it and will.For the very simple reason put in bold above.

[Harley]

Re HL website issue, how is their mobile app?

[CVG]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hello All

Long time lurker, followed the thread from the beginning and finally decided DB’s warnings of inflation destroying my wealth can no longer be ignored.

 

Never bought a share in my life so just after some very basic advice.

 

Am I correct in thinking I need to open the s+s ISA with the platform I intend to use for buying the shares? HL, for instance? If so can anyone recommend one?

 

Im looking to buy and hold for the duration of the shitstorm to come, so I won’t be making many trades.

 

Thanks in advance.

HL has lots of coverage of different assets and regions but is expensive. If you want to buy and hold a few basic shares like Shell and BP then iWeb is probably cheaper (others may be cheaper still). Then after a year or so, if you wanted, you could open a new tax year ISA in HL if you want the better coverage.

[CVG]

27 minutes ago, CVG said:

HL has lots of coverage of different assets and regions but is expensive. If you want to buy and hold a few basic shares like Shell and BP then iWeb is probably cheaper (others may be cheaper still). Then after a year or so, if you wanted, you could open a new tax year ISA in HL if you want the better coverage.

Sorry to quote myself, but just to add and update on other service question:

I have both a HL and iWeb account - one buy and hold (iweb) and one exotic (HL). Just trying to log into HL now and finding that the security verification code is not being texted to my phone. Usually takes seconds but haven't received it for over 5 minutes now (including 2nd request).

 

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hello All

Long time lurker, followed the thread from the beginning and finally decided DB’s warnings of inflation destroying my wealth can no longer be ignored.

 

Never bought a share in my life so just after some very basic advice.

 

Am I correct in thinking I need to open the s+s ISA with the platform I intend to use for buying the shares? HL, for instance? If so can anyone recommend one?

 

Im looking to buy and hold for the duration of the shitstorm to come, so I won’t be making many trades.

 

Thanks in advance.

Hi TC, alongside DBs comment,  you may like to look at one of the other post I have done on cost comparison advantages/disadvantages of several brokers...depending on how much you have to invest don't forget the FSA protection limits (also covered in a previous post)..finally, don't ignore the impact of costs I.e brokers and ocf`s/operating charges of funds, especially in regards to compounding over time.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

HL has lots of coverage of different assets and regions but is expensive. If you want to buy and hold a few basic shares like Shell and BP then iWeb is probably cheaper (others may be cheaper still). Then after a year or so, if you wanted, you could open a new tax year ISA in HL if you want the better coverage.

Has anyone noticed a difference in spread between these two?..whenever I check FTSE100 especially, iweb seems to be narrower `like for like`...unless i am imagining this.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

Sorry to quote myself, but just to add and update on other service question:

I have both a HL and iWeb account - one buy and hold (iweb) and one exotic (HL). Just trying to log into HL now and finding that the security verification code is not being texted to my phone. Usually takes seconds but haven't received it for over 5 minutes now (including 2nd request).

 

Thanks for this, I was toying between HL and AJ Bell...anyone got any feedback on the latter (good or bad)...also on the range offered by HSBC?

[Ellandback]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

Sorry to quote myself, but just to add and update on other service question:

I have both a HL and iWeb account - one buy and hold (iweb) and one exotic (HL). Just trying to log into HL now and finding that the security verification code is not being texted to my phone. Usually takes seconds but haven't received it for over 5 minutes now (including 2nd request).

 

Is the PIN to phone a additional security step that you've added yourself? I don't have to do that when I log in on the laptop, I mostly use the app which I find works well, didn't experience previous mentioned issues when trying to buy along with every other bugger a few weeks ago.

I looked into FD/HSBC last year, depends on your needs but the range seemed s little FTSE centric for me, decent running cost reflects that I suppose.

[CVG]

11 minutes ago, Ellandback said:

Is the PIN to phone a additional security step that you've added yourself? I don't have to do that when I log in on the laptop, I mostly use the app which I find works well, didn't experience previous mentioned issues when trying to buy along with every other bugger a few weeks ago.

I looked into FD/HSBC last year, depends on your needs but the range seemed s little FTSE centric for me, decent running cost reflects that I suppose.

They are gradually rolling this out I believe. My account requires it, but my wife and sons accounts haven't been converted yet. Perhaps it has been done based on value?

[Ellandback]

Yeah, maybe the bigger accounts are receiving the roll out earlier. 

[DoINeedOne]

Any thoughts on this Opec meeting tomorrow

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Any thoughts on this Opec meeting tomorrow

 

Doesnt matter really,if they cut it might save a few smaller players,but longer term zero affect on price.Soon they wont be able to pump enough to meet demand,mid cycle.Once the tankers are all full and cant be taken into the refiners the Saudi's will suffer badly here.$ drives oil from here probably.Sometime before the end of the year i see dollar at 92 or lower and Brent at or just above $40.There is still a risk it hits my sub $15 target on WTI,though it did get very close.Hopefully most people are full allocated in oilies now on here,£9 for Shell was incredible.

[NogintheNog]

10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Hello All

Long time lurker, followed the thread from the beginning and finally decided DB’s warnings of inflation destroying my wealth can no longer be ignored.

 

Never bought a share in my life so just after some very basic advice.

 

Am I correct in thinking I need to open the s+s ISA with the platform I intend to use for buying the shares? HL, for instance? If so can anyone recommend one?

 

Im looking to buy and hold for the duration of the shitstorm to come, so I won’t be making many trades.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Thanks for this, I was toying between HL and AJ Bell...anyone got any feedback on the latter (good or bad)...also on the range offered by HSBC?

So, I have a SIPP with AJ Bell which I recently opened with a cash pension transfer and I have to say that I've had no problems other than the volatility meaning I usually had to stab with a sightly higher price to get a trade to go through. I also have an HSBC Investdirect plus ISA account and the same thing was happening on there a few weeks back. The AJ Bell web interface is pretty intuitive but the search option doesn't always find what you are looking for and you end up doing a manual A-Z search!

The HSBC account is UK/US shares only, whereas the AJ Bell gives you many more markets to trade on. I'd go for AJ Bell

[DoINeedOne]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Doesnt matter really,if they cut it might save a few smaller players,but longer term zero affect on price.Soon they wont be able to pump enough to meet demand,mid cycle.Once the tankers are all full and cant be taken into the refiners the Saudi's will suffer badly here.$ drives oil from here probably.Sometime before the end of the year i see dollar at 92 or lower and Brent at or just above $40.There is still a risk it hits my sub $15 target on WTI,though it did get very close.Hopefully most people are full allocated in oilies now on here,£9 for Shell was incredible.

Have positions in Gazprom, Shell & BP sadly missed the £9 shell and cheap BP but still have 2 ladders to go will get some today and then see

Been slowly getting back into some miners over the last month too

 

 

[sancho panza]

16 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Any thoughts on this Opec meeting tomorrow

 

I bought some XOM in Mrs P's ISA last night,then news came out of them not agreeing a production cut and the price of teh stock barely moved.We'll be buying more tonight.Bought two tranches EQNR either side of the news and they barely moved even though WTI went down 10% at it's lowest.

Oil price not moving share prices is bullish for the share prices imho.Dropped from about 1830 from $26 to $23 by 2030