Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Castlevania]

13 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Yes it got daft has I worked with the lodger and I even fucked his mum 

Was he aware?

[King Penda]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Do you plan on having a lodger when you’re an OAP?

That’s probably the best time to have one if a similar age or a bit younger if I’m honest there’s a lot of pensioners in London that donit for company and the youngster gets cheap accommodation 

Just now, Castlevania said:

Was he aware?

Bit late after I’d fucked her

[CVG]

15 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Yes it got daft has I worked with the lodger and I even fucked his mum 

Your wife?

[Loki]

55 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Yeah, I see the derision that meets Henriks predictions, especially from the PM bull community.
But he was one of the few who called the recent collapse (in general, although he was also calling $800 gold, that didn't happen).
He's revised his timing, and is now predicting a bigger collapse, (including $800 gold), in the 2nd half of the year.  Which puts him in the same camp as anyone here who thinks we may not have seen the 'big Kahuna' yet, and also that guy, David Hunter that sometimes gets a mention on here.

Disclaimer - I'm in that camp.  Not sure who else might be, but at least my view wasn't laughed out of the room.

 

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I think it’s plausible. If we hit new highs on the main indexes over the next few months the more likely I see the scenario playing out. I don’t think the recovery from the bat flu will be as straight forward as people expect.

 

8 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

He's predicting 2nd half of the year, so perhaps mines might be open again.  But, I don't think that's the reason.  Near as I can understand, he's predicting a larger deflationary collapse than we just saw,  with forced selling to cover margin calls elsewhere.

Based on this, to me it seems sensible to get an initial holding in our reflation portfolios while prices are favourable, but keeping some cash back for the 2nd half of the year when the main course arrives

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

 

 

Based on this, to me it seems sensible to get an initial holding in our reflation portfolios while prices are favourable, but keeping some cash back for the 2nd half of the year when the main course arrives

Or try and be clever like me, go all in with the plan of taking profits and buying long dated Treasuries to weather the storm.

That was the plan I set at the start of the year. Bat flu messed it up big style. I only have myself to blame. I’m hoping for a second attempt to get it right.

[Loki]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Or try and be clever like me, go all in with the plan of taking profits and buying long dated Treasuries to weather the storm.

That was the plan I set at the start of the year. Bat flu messed it up big style. I only have myself to blame. I’m hoping for a second attempt to get it right.

Don't beat yourself up, no-one could have seen this coming, the way it did.  (We knew a financial event was due of course but if it had been purely that maybe your plan would have worked, I don't know enough to say!)

The only reason I didn't go all in was because I didn't have much to put in...in a way fate saved my from myself.

 

[Errol]

This is a real book published by the German Central Bank. Something tells me they are very pro gold ...

 

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, logana said:

The Bank of England has agreed to temporarily finance government borrowing in response to COVID-19 if funds cannot immediately be raised from debt markets.

"Among midcap stocks, homebuilder Redrow surged 6.7 percent after winning approval for the Bank of England's coronavirus emergency financing scheme and said talks with six banks to secure additional funds were progressing well.

Fellow housebuilders Barratt Development, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey gained between 4 percent and 5.6 percent."

MPs are being offered an additional £10,000 to support them while they work from home during the coronavirus outbreak, it has emerged.

 

 

“We all too often have socialism for the rich and rugged free market capitalism for the poor.” ― Martin Luther King Jr.

The general public are being robbed `Hand over fist` and all they do is accept it and clap every Thursday like performing seals!...when are people going to `WAKE UP`?

[Bricks & Mortar]

5 minutes ago, Errol said:

This is a real book published by the German Central Bank. Something tells me they are very pro gold ...

 

Did anyone else enlarge the image to look for swastikas.  Or fragments of teeth?

[King Penda]

I still think there’s to much hatred of owning on this forum at times I agree house prices will be slaughtered most of the south will be decimated and btl landlords crucified.but argue all you like up north prices will stabilise to local wages and insome areas that’s aready happened ie house prices roughly the same has 2009

[sleepwello'nights]

29 minutes ago, Loki said:

 

 

Based on this, to me it seems sensible to get an initial holding in our reflation portfolios while prices are favourable, but keeping some cash back for the 2nd half of the year when the main course arrives

Will it now that the Fed have back stopped everything?

[Don Coglione]

1 minute ago, stokiescum said:

I still think there’s to much hatred of owning on this forum at times I agree house prices will be slaughtered most of the south will be decimated and btl landlords crucified.but argue all you like up north prices will stabilise to local wages and insome areas that’s aready happened ie house prices roughly the same has 2009

To be fair, Stokie, this is not hpc.

Most on here accept that house prices will be the last thing allowed to fail (although they may well do so) and acknowledge the utility that an owned property offers. 

It is only a few sky-screamers that pollute this (and other) threads, chanting the hpc mantra.

[Shamone]

7 hours ago, Vendetta said:

I haven’t felt the way I’m feeling right now since the turn of 2000.

I am just much better placed to ‘take advantage’ now in terms of investing in stocks and commodities etc. 

My gut (and DB! 😁) is telling me there is a massive inflationary mechanism coming. I think that is right. 

Mind I called it wrong in 2009 (after 2 years STR) when I bought the final family home and took out a 10 year fixed mortgage at 4.75% - worst financial decision I ever made. (House purchase was a good move though).

I really thought inflation and high IRs were the only outcome. How could I have been so wrong? 

So what to invest in April 2020 onwards? 

Oil?

Oil stocks?

Commodity ETFs ? 

Gold? 

Index ETFs? 

Emerging markets? 

I’m going to devote a few hours to reading all the previous pages. Already some great replies and insight from people here. Many thanks.
 

Finally I think there will be one more massive down leg shock in the stock indices to shake out a few ‘weak bulls’....

The final BULL TRAP cometh? Will we see DOW sub 20000 and Ftse sub 5000 again? 
 

You may see RDSB sub £10 one more time? 
 

Anyone Remember 2000??? 
 

It took 3 years and 4-5 Bull traps on the way down to finally hit the very bottom - nearly an 80% fall from top to bottom! 

 

10 year fix at 4.75 - how come such a bad decision? We had 3.99 in 2013 and felt lucky. You bought well off a peak.

[Errol]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Could it come from increased military spending? I reckon they will be putting a few more aircraft carriers in the Pacific soon enough

They are sitting ducks with hypersonic weapons around. And both Russia and China have them.

[King Penda]

Just now, Ponty Mython said:

To be fair, Stokie, this is not hpc.

Most on here accept that house prices will be the last thing allowed to fail (although they may well do so) and acknowledge the utility that an owned property offers. 

It is only a few sky-screamers that pollute this (and other) threads, chanting the hpc mantra.

Valid point they will I agree take a hit but can the goverment bail the banks out and how after there recently spending spree which is far from finished 

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

They are sitting ducks with hypersonic weapons around.

Sink one and the big boys get dropped 

[Shamone]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I think for the sanity of market-watchers the point needs to be remade, confirmed, underlined, in italics, with caps lock on (metaphorically speaking) that day-to-day moves in this environment will drive one slowly mental.

This thread is for the long term.

Give yourselves a break. 

PS: There's always the opportunity to create a day-trader's thread, if so inclined.

agree 100%!

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Will it now that the Fed have back stopped everything?

I can only go with what far smarter brains than mine think is possible!

However durhamborn has mentioned the DXY and long bond being key, which are at 99.45% (Should be below 95 according to the roadmaps) and long bond interest lowest it has been since 2008 at 1.347%

Shame everywhere is shut tomorrow, we'll have to wait till Tuesday to find out if today's announcements from the Fed are "it"

[Jesus Wept]

I see Saudi and Russia have agreed to cut oil output to 8.5m b/d (May/June).

They’d normally be pumping 12.5m b/d 

WTI would normally be boosted massively. However......

NYMEX crude down 2.75% from start of day on news.

$36.40 day peak to $33.00 ish now - so markets were obviously expecting more of a cut.

There’s ‘no demand’ out there at present.

G20 energy meeting tomorrow. Let’s see what that holds. 

I’m going massively long on oil over next few years. Buy buy buy....

[Shamone]

23 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I still think there’s to much hatred of owning on this forum at times I agree house prices will be slaughtered most of the south will be decimated and btl landlords crucified.but argue all you like up north prices will stabilise to local wages and insome areas that’s aready happened ie house prices roughly the same has 2009

wise man. 

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, Shamone said:

wise man. 

Doubt that but I could say something realy daft and surgest in some areas they have carried on dropping if you consider inflation from pre 2009 prices

[Castlevania]

33 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I still think there’s to much hatred of owning on this forum at times I agree house prices will be slaughtered most of the south will be decimated and btl landlords crucified.but argue all you like up north prices will stabilise to local wages and insome areas that’s aready happened ie house prices roughly the same has 2009

It is an offshoot of a website to do with house prices crashing, so what do you actually expect?

Edit: I do agree with you.

[Shamone]

2 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Doubt that but I could say something realy daft and surgest in some areas they have carried on dropping if you consider inflation from pre 2009 prices

totally agree. around here you can get a 2 bed for maybe 120k. Really cheap flats if you move into Wales. Yet the wages ARE THE SAME for the majority as if you lived in the SE. You are a wise man. My wife's cousin paid something like 600k for a 1 bed leasehold flat in London 2 years ago, with help from his public-sector-pensioned (tax payers money) parents. He looks down on me like Im a piece of sh.

[Castlevania]

11 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I see Saudi and Russia have agreed to cut oil output to 8.5m b/d (May/June).

They’d normally be pumping 12.5m b/d 

WTI would normally be boosted massively. However......

NYMEX crude down 2.75% from start of day on news.

$36.40 day peak to $33.00 ish now - so markets were obviously expecting more of a cut.

There’s ‘no demand’ out there at present.

G20 energy meeting tomorrow. Let’s see what that holds. 

I’m going massively long on oil over next few years. Buy buy buy....

I’m hoping for a bit of a pullback. I bought a reasonable amount of oil stocks last month, but being greedy would like some more. 

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It is an offshoot of a website to do with house prices crashing, so what do you actually expect?

I expect them to

claim the sky’s falling for 10 years or more before it actualy happens however half of them

could have bought and had the morgage paid off if they had realised that roughly 2012 was the bottom true maybe a bad idea in the south but prob a wize idea in the midlands and north this will be there next bite of the cherry