Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

4 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Now I'm no oil expert but

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm not sure it's a "free" market. Goldman Sachs must be involved  profiting    somewhere!

Fixed, now it's not mutually exclusive  

[Option5]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I looked at Permian shale production earlier, and I had it losing 172kbpd in April. I can't wait to see May, it's going to be absolute carnage. Minus $7.30 a barrel currently! Astonishing. They are going to be wiped out, and if they have hedges, their counterparties will be wiped out, and then they'll be wiped out. I see Wolf has mentioned there are 20 Saudi tankers carrying 40m bbl of oil on their way to the Gulf Coast, well done Americans!!

Bound for refineries that process that oil but can't handle WTI or Canadian tar sand oils. Not all oil is the same and has different markets, refineries, end products etc.

The Canadian oil they can't get rid of is like tar and even needs thinner oil added to get it to flow down the pipelines.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Festival said:

Been buying BP and XOM. Hoping to get some more of both and some more RSDB with a £12 handle or lower. Also looking at CVX and COP.  Hoping oil is leading the wider market here.

 I cant get DB's comment about the market wanting to take prices back 1982 out of my head. Family home for under £50k anyone?

Surely that's why they will print and print and print and once this deflationary price shock is over the only place to hide will be in inflation hedges such as oil and gold. 

 

 

Exactly Festival,and im really pleased to hear people actually thinking about that comment.Its one of the reasons i love this thread.We are all open to really consider things.My house was sold for £17k i think in 1979 when it was built,inflation adjusted thats £105k today and they are going for £130k so not far off.

[PaulParanoia]

BP and Shell both down 5% on NYSE.

[Errol]

5 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

Holy shit!

Trump to CB: kill Russia and Saudi oil

CB to Trump: Mission accepted

I don't think this is what is going on, but if it is it's not a very sensible strategy. Personally, I wouldn't want to get into a battle for survival with Putin or Russia. They are better at it than virtually anyone else.

 

Just now, PaulParanoia said:

BP and Shell both down 5% on NYSE.

Excellent. I'm hoping for sub £10 again.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

!!!! WTF !!!! This isn't a crash this is a collapse. 

WTI Crude oil price !!!!

	Futures & Indexes	Last	Change	% Change	Last Updated
	WTI Crude	5.280	-12.990	-71.10%

 

 

What happens next ?

People who trade the paper markets cant take delivery as nowhere to send it so having to sell at any price.Anyone who has storage can clean up here if they can take delivery.Financial dislocation in action.

[Democorruptcy]

On IG futures Jun is $21 Jul is $27

[Option5]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Sure, but it's 5x their usual cargoes. It's like sending in the tanks!

WTI is basically condensate now, far thinner than Arab Light. I'm not sure that's  it...

The refineries can usually handle most oils but have to be reconfigured to do so. By the time they shutdown, do the work and start up again it'll be back up to $20

They'll be stockpiling the crude they use most while the price is low. People will be buying tankers full of crude and just parking them up until the price rises again.

[Loki]

I knew I shouldn't have sold that oil tanker 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Festival said:

Been buying BP and XOM. Hoping to get some more of both and some more RSDB with a £12 handle or lower. Also looking at CVX and COP.  Hoping oil is leading the wider market here.

 I cant get DB's comment about the market wanting to take prices back 1982 out of my head. Family home for under £50k anyone?

Surely that's why they will print and print and print and once this deflationary price shock is over the only place to hide will be in inflation hedges such as oil and gold. 

 

 

I'd guess UKs going back to 1982 wage multiples.

Vast unravelling of all the leverage n fuckwittery.

80% of UK banks blew themselves up in 07. They been trading on fumes since.

To kick start the UK economy, money has to pour into productive assets

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I'd guess UKs going back to 1982 wage multiples.

Vast unravelling if all the leverage n fuckwittery.

80% of UK banks blew themselves up in 07. They been trading on fumes since.

To kick start the UK economy, money has to pour into productive assets

Exactly spy and thats what will happen.People wont understand whats happening until well into the cycle though.House is my pension etc is all over.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

27 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Now I'm no oil expert but

 

Its going back up again.... 

Up to - 250%

🤣🤣🤣

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

I knew I shouldn't have sold that oil tanker 

I've got a spare refinery if you want it, yours for -£10000000

[Noallegiance]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly Festival,and im really pleased to hear people actually thinking about that comment.Its one of the reasons i love this thread.We are all open to really consider things.My house was sold for £17k i think in 1979 when it was built,inflation adjusted thats £105k today and they are going for £130k so not far off.

I don't mind saying that if I could settle my family in 4-6 years time for cash in a house that I don't have to move from until I get carted out in a box, I'd openly cry. A lot.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

41 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's just a no-bid market. 

Hang on, the oil salesmen are missing a trick here, take a leaf from estate agents, they just need list it for sale for the next 5 years, if you don't find a buyer put the price up so premium buyers will buy it.

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly spy and thats what will happen.People wont understand whats happening until well into the cycle though.House is my pension etc is all over.

UK banks have been fucked since 08.

You just have to look at how few mortgages are being sold - banks dont have the capital, under 50s dont have the wages.

I'm trying to fin  post, from a few years back, where bland underweight quotes Andrew Bsiley.

The guy hates io lending and btl.

Now hes BoE governor hes throwing regulated bank btl lending under a bus.

 

[Harley]

48 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I don't mind saying that if I could settle my family in 4-6 years time for cash in a house that I don't have to move from until I get carted out in a box, I'd openly cry. A lot.

Good luck.  I have a house (sort of) that I hopefully will(!) like to be carted from in a box so don't give a dam what it's worth.  If these things go lower and people can buy a home without enslaving themselves then fine by me.  A head fake for most who idiotically thought such things represented wealth (to them!).  What I paid for mine is a bit of an irrelevance, a bit like my income portfolio (well, not quite!).

35 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Now hes BoE governor hes throwing regulated bank btl lending under a bus.

Really, excellent news!  Trading houses is as ethical as trading food.

Will my bank deposits be OK though?

[Option5]

7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Hang on, the oil salesmen are missing a trick here, take a leaf from estate agents, they just need list it for sale for the next 5 years, if you don't find a buyer put the price up so premium buyers will buy it.

They're crude oil salesmen, not snake oil salesmen.

[JREWING]

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

[spygirl]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Good luck.  I have a house (sort of) that I hopefully wiil(!) like to be carted from in a box so don't give a dam what it's worth.  If these things go lower and people can buy a home without enslaving themselves then fine by me.  A head fake for most who idiotically thought such things represented wealth (to them!).  What I paid for mine is a bit of an irrelevance, a bit like my income portfolio (well, not quite!).

Really, excellent news!  Trading houses is as ethical as trading food.

Will my bank deposits be OK though?

It's the gormless leverage and io bit he hates.

It's not the type of banking you can regulate.Jungle drums are saying a small bank is going under.

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Good luck.  I have a house (sort of) that I hopefully wiil(!) like to be carted from in a box so don't give a dam what it's worth.  If these things go lower and people can buy a home without enslaving themselves then fine by me.  A head fake for most who idiotically thought such things represented wealth.  What I paid for mine is a bit of an irrelevance, a bit like my income portfolio (well, not quite!).

 

Thanks.

Just looked at regional house prices in 1982. There are a few differences but nothing near the distortions of today. A detached house is pretty much £50-60k wherever.

I'm striving not to cling to it, but the prospect is salivating my oral cavity.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, Panda said:

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

Dont put all your eggs in one basket and never buy centrica shares. 

 

Google share dealing, HL is a good bet, Halifax do one and a few places do an annual fee account and cheaper trades. 

Can you open a SIPP after you retire? 

[Bricks & Mortar]

5 minutes ago, Panda said:

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

Don't do it!
Not all in oil.  Not all in only 2 shares. 
We all think they're a realy good bet.  But it's still a bet.  And you're not spreading the risk around.

Edit - The Count said more or less the same thing before me.  I'll leave this here to reinforce.

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

It's the gormless leverage and io bit he hates.

It's not the type of banking you can regulate.Jungle drums are saying a small bank is going under.

Which metro bank is that? 

 

[Sasquatch]

Just now, Bricks & Mortar said:

Don't do it!
Not all in oil.  Not all in only 2 shares. 
We all think they're a realy good bet.  But it's still a bet.  And you're not spreading the risk around.

 

Agree with this. Although unlikely, there could be another black swan event and things could change again.