Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Which metro bank is that? 

 

I dont think its Metro, who  might get saved due to level of business lending.

It'll be a small BS.

[Bricks & Mortar]

One thing worries me about this oil price...
Some people must be losing their shirts today.  Who are those people.  And what knock-on effects will that have?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, spygirl said:

I dont think its Metro, who  might get saved due to level of business lending.

It'll be a small BS.

Or a large one with branches nationwide. 

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

One thing worries me about this oil price...
Some people must be losing their shirts today.  Who are those people.  And what knock-on effects will that have?

......what size are their shirts, where can I get one, and for how much? My offer is -£12 for a partly-worn polo.

[Option5]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

......what size are their shirts, where can I get one, and for how much? My offer is -£12 for a partly-worn polo.

Waste of time, it'll have a hole in it 

[Hardhat]

16 minutes ago, Panda said:

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

NOT trading advice, but if you do go all in, buy in ladders!

Also consider keeping some in PMs (silver, gold) and some in cash (unless you have cash elsewhere also).

Not sure on the SIPP rules, but you could each invest 20k in a stocks and shares ISA.

[Errol]

5% minimum of that £50,000 in gold. Just get some sovereigns.

[Majorpain]

20 minutes ago, Panda said:

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

Seasoned pro's are getting their ass handed to them at the minute, whatever you decide to do, do your own research (DYOR) and diversify diversify diversify!

Its good that you are looking at it because 99% of the population currently are not, but don't jump out of the frying pan into the fire.

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, Panda said:

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

No that's daft even to me 

Durhamborn posted a simple sample portfolio for someone here recently.  Look back up thread and you'll find it

 

[Agent ZigZag]

14 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I dont think its Metro, who  might get saved due to level of business lending.

It'll be a small BS.

I’m going for one or more of the following

leedsBS

yorkshire/ accord

pepper money

Bank of Ireland as an outsider

How did I do Spy was I close

 

 

 

 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly Festival,and im really pleased to hear people actually thinking about that comment.Its one of the reasons i love this thread.We are all open to really consider things.My house was sold for £17k i think in 1979 when it was built,inflation adjusted thats £105k today and they are going for £130k so not far off.

Just so I haven’t missed something DB, are we still expecting an initial price drop in this steep depression over the next year or two (-15% to -20% for non SE areas, perhaps just -10% in your neck of the woods) and then for prices to flat line throughout the decade as inflation builds (and mortgage rates), therefore lose REAL value (but no further NOMINAL value), even with rising wage inflation?

 

[spygirl]

Just now, Agent ZigZag said:

I’m going for one or more of the following

leedsBS

yorkshire/ accord

pepper money

Bank of Ireland as an outsider

How did I do Spy was I close

 

 

 

 

I think its Leeds.

Their specialist area is holiday let's.

https://www.trinityfinancialgroup.co.uk/article/smaller-lenders-offering-impressively-low-holiday-let-mortgage-rates

Then suddenly decided they dont do holiday let's.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/leeds-building-society-restricts-criteria/

They are fucked.

[Jesus Wept]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

WisdomTree WTI...there's even a 2x long for the brave

I’ve been having a look at this. 
 

Charges through H&L are fairly savage though. 2.85% a year plus more...

[Barnsey]

6 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I’m going for one or more of the following

leedsBS

yorkshire/ accord

pepper money

Bank of Ireland as an outsider

How did I do Spy was I close

Not YBS, too big, still offering their 15 year fix

[Wheeler]

17 minutes ago, Panda said:

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

Leaving aside any specifics about which investments to buy etc., you will need to set up an account with a broker. I use both Hargreaves Lansdown and Interactive Investor and they have been fine for me. There are others (AJ Bell has been mentioned here before) and the fees and services do vary so you need to check on their websites:

Hargreaves Lansdown - https://hl.co.uk

Interactive Investor - https://ii.co.uk

Assuming you are UK based then I'd read up about the ISA as these are tax free and don't need to be put on a tax return. You can only put in £20k per tax year though. There should be guidance on the websites. It's easy to deposit money in once the account is set up; they will take debit card payments. You will need to provide some identification details such as copies of passport/driving licence etc. All of this should be covered on the website.

Best thing to do is have a look at the websites, plus any others that you might want to look at, and read the information about the types of accounts you can have, costs etc.

Good luck.

[Barnsey]

7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I think its Leeds.

Their specialist area is holiday let's.

https://www.trinityfinancialgroup.co.uk/article/smaller-lenders-offering-impressively-low-holiday-let-mortgage-rates

Then suddenly decided they dont do holiday let's.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/leeds-building-society-restricts-criteria/

They are fucked.

Wow, this tightening of mortgage lending is going to crucify prices for the foreseeable future

[Harley]

34 minutes ago, Panda said:

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

To be blunt, you're either a troll or in serious need of some financial advice.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

43 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Wow, this tightening of mortgage lending is going to crucify prices for the foreseeable future

Shame 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

58 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I’m going for one or more of the following

leedsBS

yorkshire/ accord

pepper money

Bank of Ireland as an outsider

How did I do Spy was I close

 

 

 

 

Coventry 

Post office

Several of the so called challenger banks. 

 

Take your pick

[SillyBilly]

1 hour ago, Panda said:

Could someone be kind enough to help me to understand the easiest and quickest way to buy BP and Shell shares using cash in the bank.

My old fella has a few bob saved up. I've convinced him to go all in.  I'm talking £50k all in. It's his life's savings.

I and he have never owned a share in our lives. So never bought one either.

It's to help his income in retirement, he's getting 0.25% interest at present.

Thanks for any guidance.

I am managing my father's portfolio and so far I have been buying steadily into the below. His cash position will eventually be 5% once I've finished accumulating. I think he will do will over the next cycle with it. 

Nutrien Ltd NPV - Chemicals (Fertilizers & Agricultural)

BASF - Chemicals (Industrial)

Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) - Telecommunications

Telefonica - Telecommunications

SSE - Energy

Drax - Energy 

Legal & General - Finance (pensions, life insurance)

BP - Oil

Shell - Oil

BHP Group (BHP)- Mining (iron, copper, aluminum)

Hochschild Mining Plc - Mining (Silver & Gold)

GSK- Pharmaceutical

 

 

[Barnsey]

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Shame 

Thanks to a deadly virus with flu season yet to get through, unhappy couples being forced to stay indoors together, and at best 80% salary with no overtime for a huge % of the U.K. work force, the stage really is set for significant triple D supply but no demand due to 60% LTV lending restrictions.

[reformed nice guy]

5 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I am managing my father's portfolio and so far I have been buying steadily into the below. His cash position will eventually be 5% once I've finished accumulating. I think he will do will over the next cycle with it. 

Nutrien Ltd NPV - Chemicals (Fertilizers & Agricultural)

BASF - Chemicals (Industrial)

Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) - Telecommunications

Telefonica - Telecommunications

SSE - Energy

Drax - Energy 

Legal & General - Finance (pensions, life insurance)

BP - Oil

Shell - Oil

BHP Group (BHP)- Mining (iron, copper, aluminum)

Hochschild Mining Plc - Mining (Silver & Gold)

GSK- Pharmaceutical

 

 

good spread

[Jesus Wept]

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Thanks to a deadly virus with flu season yet to get through, unhappy couples being forced to stay indoors together, and at best 80% salary with no overtime for a huge % of the U.K. work force, the stage really is set for significant triple D supply but no demand due to 60% LTV lending restrictions.

Its pretty mad when you think about it. 

I reckon many under 50s would have been happy to take their chances with cv19

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Just so I haven’t missed something DB, are we still expecting an initial price drop in this steep depression over the next year or two (-15% to -20% for non SE areas, perhaps just -10% in your neck of the woods) and then for prices to flat line throughout the decade as inflation builds (and mortgage rates), therefore lose REAL value (but no further NOMINAL value), even with rising wage inflation?

 

My understanding from previous discussions on here is that southern prices might drop 25-30% nominally then any other drops would be against inflation. So a decent family home would be still way out of reach for even someone with a very decent salary