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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Democorruptcy
17 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Thanks to a deadly virus with flu season yet to get through, unhappy couples being forced to stay indoors together, and at best 80% salary with no overtime for a huge % of the U.K. work force, the stage really is set for significant triple D supply but no demand due to 60% LTV lending restrictions.

Why at best? Governbankment pays 80% but some firms are topping it up to 100%. No commute costs, no childcare, no spending in pubs/restaurants, no holidays, etc some will be accumulating money.

One post on here:

Quote

 

RJT 1979

Jesus. My mrs just got 10k from local council. Applied 5 days ago. Runs physiopherapy as self employed. Does not pay rates for the premesises. Basically self employed so will get the 80pc of profits money as well? Can anyone get this? Nail bars, dog walkers? Dodgy barber shops? Sickening waste of money and unfair on others.

 

Free money for second home owners

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sancho panza

 

 

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Well it's definitely gone for the "it's all over this is the end of the world" scenario! People forget that oil is the economy, I think.

Profit from this? Same as has been discussed here, ladder into big oil, and dyodd

I'm already fully positioned, and I am so relieved that DB's lowest of the low predictions has come in. I can now finally, FINALLY, stop worrying about maximising capital and optimal entry etc, and forget about this stuff for a a decade or two. Thanks guys, especially the lad from Durham.

Exxon closed at $41.I'm hoping to get my Jan 21 $50 calls cheap tmrw or wed,maybe Fri,but if this sort of disclocation in futures marekts can't get us there I don't know what will.

Still have a a last few quid for the oilies and deciding between XOM/EQNR.

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It seems quite unreal that the call on oil has hit.It was based on liquidity crunching on a huge debt deflation.You could say it took some luck,but the road map showed the potential downside on a deflation,it didnt look for a trigger.I dont like shorter term calls,but $33 on WTI by late summer is showing.$200 is a lock by 2026,likely we see $300.The oil call though was based on financial dislocation as some financial companies rolled over,and it was based on hitting before the Fed right sized.Given it hit after a lot of printing started says my call was out,because if the printing hadnt started it would of gone under $10,even lower.Thats says the economy is even worse than the road map expected with a massive debt deflation.If i could buy oil itself here without margin calls and hold to 2027 i would,but il settle for the big players.

 

Fair play.I thought you were off your rocker with that '$15 in the paper market call'...............lucky I've got a day job(well night job)...

As CP said cure for cheap oil is cheap oil.Lot of marginal wells going to get shut.COuld be the mother of all short covering rallies inbound.

I wouldn't beat yourself up about being slightly out ref the Fed,that was an outrageously good call.

Interestig that we're getting nothing like the capitualtionselling of 13/20 march

 

 

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, No One said:

Holly shit, 

I have BP and Shell shares should I sell :(

 

 

3 hours ago, Errol said:

One day we will see this sort of thing again - but for gold and the price will be going upward.

Possibly it will happen overnight.

 

 

“This is a perfect environment for gold to take center stage," the letter said, as spot gold traded at about $1,741 an ounce. Fair value for the metal, the fund believes "is literally multiples of its current price."

- Billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management.

Intriguing to see Barrick and Newmont near the bottom of my leader board.COuld this be the moment the big boys see the tier 1's come through?

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

People who trade the paper markets cant take delivery as nowhere to send it so having to sell at any price.Anyone who has storage can clean up here if they can take delivery.Financial dislocation in action.

Futures markets are cash settled,sI'd have thought getting delivery was the last thing on their mind ...except for today.......They're some hedgies blowing up as someone said,gotta be.

Interestingly the COT charts are neutral

image.thumb.png.87dbd2ce3a394858559102c5dc5e347a.png

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Just so I haven’t missed something DB, are we still expecting an initial price drop in this steep depression over the next year or two (-15% to -20% for non SE areas, perhaps just -10% in your neck of the woods) and then for prices to flat line throughout the decade as inflation builds (and mortgage rates), therefore lose REAL value (but no further NOMINAL value), even with rising wage inflation?

 

I dont do much work on house prices Barnsey as im not really bothered what they do,but i do think yes a 15% down is likely then inflation falls.However in bubble areas its likely 20% down then a slow 2% a year down nominal and inflation on top.I would expect inflation adjusted 30% off in 3 years might be where we are.

Im actually a bit worried my area as an example might even go up when things settle.Getting away from the south and cities might gain traction.

I cant really see any way houses go up.All cross market work points to falls,nothing shows them going up.Its actually the worst situation they could be in.Everything is against them.I wouldnt rule out much bigger falls.

If we take HTB then the most damage to them would be if house prices went down 20%/25% from their buy price as that would put them all on the SVR so i expect that is exactly what will happen on those.

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Harley said:

Good luck.  I have a house (sort of) that I hopefully will(!) like to be carted from in a box so don't give a dam what it's worth.  If these things go lower and people can buy a home without enslaving themselves then fine by me.  A head fake for most who idiotically thought such things represented wealth (to them!).  What I paid for mine is a bit of an irrelevance, a bit like my income portfolio (well, not quite!).

Really, excellent news!  Trading houses is as ethical as trading food.

Will my bank deposits be OK though?

Strangely was having a chat with mrs P last night about how the price of houses in SA have dropped by 25% in the last month as the rand has hit 24 to the £.In last month gone from 16..........

Not that we'll be buying.I can't bring myself to sell any oilies or goldies but still nice to look what you can get for a 3 bed semi in Leicester

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circa £400k,nice bit of cape town.Murders aside.On an acre plus of land

Obviously,I think rand could weaken here some more.

https://www.property24.com/for-sale/constantia/cape-town/western-cape/11742/108080676

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image.thumb.png.7bc2cdface9d7df8a1d0b8c4b0885272.png

 

 

image.png

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2 hours ago, Harley said:

To be blunt, you're either a troll or in serious need of some financial advice.

Be nice mate. No need to be unkind.

Joined HPC forum long before you probably broke you're duck...

Thanks for all the other responses. Very good of you all.

I'll have a rethink 

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46 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Strangely was having a chat with mrs P last night about how the price of houses in SA have dropped by 25% in the last month as the rand has hit 24 to the £.In last month gone from 16..........

Not that we'll be buying.I can't bring myself to sell any oilies or goldies but still nice to look what you can get for a 3 bed semi in Leicester

image.png.ba7cca52c73d9db67006637d12464ee8.png

circa £400k,nice bit of cape town.Murders aside.On an acre plus of land

Obviously,I think rand could weaken here some more.

https://www.property24.com/for-sale/constantia/cape-town/western-cape/11742/108080676

image.thumb.png.346060051c105faaf39385fdd780297f.png

 

image.thumb.png.13823a1f7cf23d87de495994e5607466.png

image.thumb.png.7bc2cdface9d7df8a1d0b8c4b0885272.png

 

 

image.png

Buying in SA with the current climate is asking for your house to be expropriated 

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sancho panza
3 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

One thing worries me about this oil price...
Some people must be losing their shirts today.  Who are those people.  And what knock-on effects will that have?

Just a load of hedgies who were long getting burned

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

It's jsut asking for trouble letting someone liek the Leeds lend on HMO's/Holiday lets.AS Ive said before the big banks have used the last ten years to offload to the patsies

Net interest margin for msot BS's is barely positive.

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sancho panza
11 minutes ago, No One said:

Buying in SA with the current climate is asking for your house to be expropriated 

Exactly.

I'm not into buying hosues unless they're dirt cheap.South Africa isn't dirt cheap yet

I'm looking at an asset swap trade here so sell some goldies,buy a hosuein SA.I've told the mrs tho,we have to accept the local olice chief might want it one day.

I know a few people who lived in Rhodesia-as it was-asian/black/white.The reason I know them is that they're all living here.

Having said that with the amount of PM's in the groudn there,there's a chane the Rand might do well when they finally get some power to the mines.

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Bricks & Mortar
34 minutes ago, Panda said:

Be nice mate. No need to be unkind.

Joined HPC forum long before you probably broke you're duck...

Thanks for all the other responses. Very good of you all.

I'll have a rethink 

I'll assume this is a declaration that you weren't trolling.  I must admit, I thought you might be.
In that case, the other part of Harley's advice should apply.  He was harsher than most of us.  But I think now,  he was being kind, and those of us who humoured you a bit were, inadvertently, potentially more unkind.  The idea of lobbing your Dad's nestegg into just 2 stocks, in the same sector, would be extremely high risk.
My advice would be find the original thread on HPC, and read that, "deflationary collapse", for the search engine.  Then find part one on this site, and of course you're in part 2.  Read them all.  It'll probably take days.  You'll find discussions of different share trading platforms.  Discussions of the likely path for the economy.  Book recommendations.  links to videos and blogs.  Shares that are likely to do well.  Pay attention to the discussion of Centrica, as it develops, for an example of what can go wrong, and why you need to spread risk around.  Take notes.  Make a list of the inestments you might like.  Check out their charts and teach yourself how to understand the financial information.

The idea of getting a cash nestegg invested is a good one.  Putting it into practice is full of pitfalls.  Best of luck to you.

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Popuplights
27 minutes ago, No One said:

Buying in SA with the current climate is asking for your house to be expropriated 

You also have to avoid being murdered for it of course

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Popuplights
5 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I'll assume this is a declaration that you weren't trolling.  I must admit, I thought you might be.
In that case, the other part of Harley's advice should apply.  He was harsher than most of us.  But I think now,  he was being kind, and those of us who humoured you a bit were, inadvertently, potentially more unkind.  The idea of lobbing your Dad's nestegg into just 2 stocks, in the same sector, would be extremely high risk.
My advice would be find the original thread on HPC, and read that, "deflationary collapse", for the search engine.  Then find part one on this site, and of course you're in part 2.  Read them all.  It'll probably take days.  You'll find discussions of different share trading platforms.  Discussions of the likely path for the economy.  Book recommendations.  links to videos and blogs.  Shares that are likely to do well.  Pay attention to the discussion of Centrica, as it develops, for an example of what can go wrong, and why you need to spread risk around.  Take notes.  Make a list of the inestments you might like.  Check out their charts and teach yourself how to understand the financial information.

The idea of getting a cash nestegg invested is a good one.  Putting it into practice is full of pitfalls.  Best of luck to you.

This is the kind of post that reminds me why I love this forum. 

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45 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I'll assume this is a declaration that you weren't trolling.  I must admit, I thought you might be.
In that case, the other part of Harley's advice should apply.  He was harsher than most of us.  But I think now,  he was being kind, and those of us who humoured you a bit were, inadvertently, potentially more unkind.  The idea of lobbing your Dad's nestegg into just 2 stocks, in the same sector, would be extremely high risk.
My advice would be find the original thread on HPC, and read that, "deflationary collapse", for the search engine.  Then find part one on this site, and of course you're in part 2.  Read them all.  It'll probably take days.  You'll find discussions of different share trading platforms.  Discussions of the likely path for the economy.  Book recommendations.  links to videos and blogs.  Shares that are likely to do well.  Pay attention to the discussion of Centrica, as it develops, for an example of what can go wrong, and why you need to spread risk around.  Take notes.  Make a list of the inestments you might like.  Check out their charts and teach yourself how to understand the financial information.

The idea of getting a cash nestegg invested is a good one.  Putting it into practice is full of pitfalls.  Best of luck to you.

Mate.

Life. Open your mouth. Ask. You get gunned down.  

I asked a question. F**k me why all the hysteria.

Just give me the answer or shut the f**k up.

Why post anything other than the answer?

 

Because society is full of odd unkind unhappy people looking for a verbal scrap f??king halfwits.

What's hard in answering a post without reading into it like its some kind of conspiracy.. Or some poor soul who ain't that bright?

F??k this.

What bullocks.

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I wouldnt say this is a disaster.Of course it could fall more if retail is backing up,but BP has a lot of its own gas stations.A shame they sold their storage though they could of backed up the truck today.

The BP-Husky Toledo refinery in Ohio is running at about 110K-120K bbl/day, or 23%-29% below its normal operating rate of 155K bbl/day, due to lower demand for products, Bloomberg reports.

Also, BP's 242K bbl/day Cherry Point refinery in Washington state is running at ~200K bbl/day, or 17% below capacity, and the Whiting refinery in Indiana is running at 386K bbl/day, or ~10% below the normal rate of 430K bbl/day,

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sancho panza

some more kaplan misappropriation written by long term thread leading lady DDMB:x

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-10/coronavirus-fallout-u-s-housing-prices-will-tumble

 

Economics

Another U.S.-Wide Housing Slump Is Coming

The coronavirus pandemic will cause many cash-strapped Americans to sell their homes, flooding the market with excess supply.

By
10 April 2020, 12:00 BS
Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former adviser to the president of the Dallas Fed, is the author of "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America," and founder of Quill Intelligence.

A U.S. housing crisis is coming and  although it won't be anything like the last one, that won’t make it any less painful. Even though there has been no rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud, housing is still overvalued. And the dearth of inventory that’s plagued the current cycle will reverse in violent fashion once the worst of the virus has passed as financially strapped homeowners seek to raise cash. And as affordability collapses with fewer buyers eligible to buy a home, the only way to rectify the mismatch between supply and demand will be via declining prices.

Home prices dropped about 35% between mid-2006 and early 2009 in the first nationwide decline since the Great Depression as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. They have since recovered, and are now at 117% of their prior peak level in 2006. Home prices historically meandered in a range of three to four times median incomes, jumping to 5.1 times in December 2005 before collapsing. The ratio is now at 4.4 times, a level that was unprecedented prior to June 2004.
 
Several factors that characterized the last decade will now work against housing. The lowest interest rates in U.S. history spurred a boom in luxury housing. At the start of the last decade, about a fifth of the homes in the U.S. were priced at $300,000 or higher. Ten years on, that's true for more than half of all homes. The National Association of Realtors says the inventory of existing homes for sale has dropped to about three months of supply from more than seven months. Supply has shrunk as millions of Baby Boomers unexpectedly delayed downsizing. One of the reasons for this was the longest bull market in stocks in history, which afforded would-be sellers the wherewithal to continue carrying higher maintenance and larger homes than otherwise possible.
 
The recent reversal in the stock market has the potential to expedite the long anticipated “Silver Tsunami.” A June 2019 Fannie Mae report tallied the number of homes owned by boomers and the generation that preceded at about 46 million, more than a third of the 140-million-home housing stock. Zillow Group Inc. predicts “upwards of 20 million homes hitting the market through the mid-2030s (which) will provide a substantial and sustained boost to supply, comparable to the fluctuations that new home construction experienced in the 2000s boom-bust cycle.”
 
But now, the number of homes Zillow projected to hit the market in a disciplined fashion over the next 15 years will become an exodus as retirees’ need to monetize the equity in their homes to supplement their disposable income skyrockets. One can only imagine how swiftly home prices will decline once boomers feel safe enough to open their homes to outsiders as part of the normal sales process.  The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April that was released Thursday showed that plans to buy a home tumbled the most since 1979.

The capping of deductions at $10,000 has already led to a 10% to 25% discount on home prices in high tax states relative to their lower-tax counterparts. Anticipated increases in property taxes to offset collapsing state and municipal budgets will amplify the damage inflict on those on fixed incomes. 

A complete unknown that could increase the coming surge in supply is the pool of single-family rentals. About eight million landlords who own between one and 10 properties accounting for half the nation’s rental properties, according to Avail, a software company that caters to landlords. Financial duress will come swiftly for those carrying multiple mortgages. Also, a small cohort of institutional investors own roughly 250,000 of the roughly 16 million pool of rental homes, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. 

 

Making matters worse is the crash in demand for jumbo mortgages, which are those over the $510,400 conforming loan ceiling. Wells Fargo & Co. recently announced that it was halting the purchase of jumbo mortgages that originate from other lenders. Investors are sticking with government-backed loans which have greater security given payments will still be received even if borrowers have been granted forbearance. In the last downturn it took almost five years to close the premium charged to attain a jumbo mortgage over rates on conforming mortgages.

And finally, there are more than nine million second homes in the U.S. that may or may not be financially viable given the depth of the current recession. Lending standards tightened dramatically in the last recession as the unemployment rate crested at 10%. It’s difficult to imagine the challenge prospective homebuyers will face in the coming years given we know a 10% jobless rate is not a best-case scenario.

It’s also impossible to quantify how Americans will perceive homeownership given the hardship so many will endure. If frugality is embraced as it was after the Great Depression, homes will once again be viewed as a utility. The McMansion mentality is at risk of extinction.

The reason why the collapse in the subprime mortgage market hit the housing market so hard was because the lead up was predicated on the fact that there had never been a nationwide decline in home prices. But now for the second time in a little more than a decade, Americans are poised to witness the impossible.    

 

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50 minutes ago, Panda said:

Mate.

Life. Open your mouth. Ask. You get gunned down.  

I asked a question. F**k me why all the hysteria.

Just give me the answer or shut the f**k up.

Why post anything other than the answer?

 

Because society is full of odd unkind unhappy people looking for a verbal scrap f??king halfwits.

What's hard in answering a post without reading into it like its some kind of conspiracy.. Or some poor soul who ain't that bright?

F??k this.

What bullocks.

I think it just read like a trolling post Panda,because it seemed a bit ridiculous that someone would put their life savings into two shares that were among the ones talked on here.Of course people would see it as such on here because we are longer term investor mostly and its easy to forget some people maybe have never bought shares.The thread also attracts people on days when something big happens with the end of the world predictions and hyperbole so people are a bit more watchful at those times.

I think £50k is a very nice amount to build a quite balanced portfolio.It will contain risk,and probably elevated risk compared to some,but should still afford a decent diversification.Although its very tempting to go for two big companies like Shell and BP,it would be a mistake.You could make them the two biggest holdings,but better to have others too.This below is a portfolio i put together for my children the week of the big sell off.Its £35k and includes a few smaller holdings from 17 downwards but are under 1% so havent added them.Its still in flux at the moment,it did have National Express,but sold on a double,and the ITV stake has been sold by a third on a 30% increase and i intend to sell another 3rd,maybe tomorrow and increase a few holdings under 1% (OCI NV being one).It also doesnt contain any precious metals etc because it doesnt need to,iv for those myself.The count will be pleased to see no Centrica :ph34r:yetxD

This isnt advice,all people are different,and you need to do your own research etc.

1 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL 9.0% [N/A]
2 VODAFONE GROUP 8.6% [N/A]
3 BP 7.6% [N/A]
4 BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO 7.6% [N/A]
5 IMPERIAL BRANDS 7.5% [N/A]
6 TELEFONICA SA 5.8% [N/A]
7 REPSOL SA 5.5% [N/A]
8 BT GROUP 5.2% [N/A]
9 DRAX GROUP 4.7% [N/A]
10 ROYAL MAIL 4.6% [N/A]
11 PLAYTECH 3.6% [N/A]
12 SSE 3.5% [N/A]
13 GO-AHEAD GROUP 3.3% [N/A]
14 ITV 3.2% [N/A]
15 STANDARD LIFE ABERDEEN 3.0% [N/A]
16 WPP 2.7% [N/A]
17 MOSAIC CO(THE) 2.6% [N/A]
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9 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Its pretty mad when you think about it. 

I reckon many under 50s would have been happy to take their chances with cv19

Many under 50s had the choice whether to think critically about the bulls@it they were being fed...instead they preferred to be led like `sheep` into `clapping festivals`...they will now pay the price of their naivete by being `lambs to the slaughter`...

...on another note, here is a good FT article (& especially video in comments) that explains why oil (WTI) went sub zero yesterday (subscription only unless there is `another` way of accessing it?)

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/author/Izabella Kaminska

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Chewing Grass
3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Many under 50s had the choice whether to think critically about the bulls@it they were being fed...instead they preferred to be led like `sheep` into `clapping festivals`...they will now pay the price of their naivete by being `lambs to the slaughter`...

...on another note, here is a good FT article (& especially video in comments) that explains why oil (WTI) went sub zero yesterday (subscription only unless there is `another` way of accessing it?

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/author/Izabella Kaminska

Try going in via her twitter thang, she has started doing her own screencast as well.

https://twitter.com/izakaminska?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

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DB is a true gent and has kindly listed his typical reflation portfolio again (also provided earlier in part 1 of this thread). Anyone who takes and uses the list (as I did) owes it to themselves to then go back and read the whole thread (on ToS, and parts 1 and 2 here) because it's important, I think, to understand why those particular companies feature in it. You'll also want to monitor your investments going forward and know when is best time to sell/switch/rebalance etc. So having an understanding of what each company actually does, what assets, debts, cashflow, and profitability it has, and how it might link in with other companies on the list over the coming years will pay dividends (literally!)
I have about 30 stocks including pretty much everything on that list but am aware that I do now have to spend time monitoring the health of all these stocks and I'm not up to speed with that yet.


I admit that my initial position a couple of years ago was... here is a list of stocks that I have found on an internet forum from some bright sparks who seem to know what they are talking about. I trust a certain amount of cash that I can afford to lose to this and on my head be it if it goes tits up.
I am now moving into next stage... This is a list of stocks I own. I still believe the premise of the thread and want to move more cash into them now. So this is geting rather serious. Therefore can I try to follow the workings of those bright sparks and do I then agree/reach the same conclusions? ( to do this I must spend time following other experts/opinions... on YT/FinTwit etc, try my hand at 'coma scoring', follow, read and understand company financial reports, regularly monitor prices of things like US treasuries, gold, oil, exchange rates, my stock prices to see how they interact and relate with eachother). This is where the real work begins and I guess you can only do it if you enjoy it/find it interesting enough... I am slowly getting there. I guess if you are time limited or only find it interesting up to a certain point then ETFs/funds might be the way to go?


I suppose the final stage is that you can then stand on your own two feet and call yourself an 'independent investor'. I think, for me, stage 2 will take many, many years and maybe all that I have energy for. Should be fun though...

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Going the simple route and just chucking everything at BP and Shell doesn't sound like too bad a plan, but it does leave you wide open to loosing everything should an oil rig blow up or someone get caught fucking around. From what I can see most platforms charge progressively less for buying shares if you buy more in a month or a year. So spreading the risk doesn't end up being more expensive and insulates you from the risks involved in just buying two. 

Personally my plan is leaving a load in a global tracker fund and picking stocks I fancy with say 50% of it, as the ones I want aren't particularly well represented in a fund of Microsoft and all that shit. It could go either way, probably go alright, and I shouldn't get handed my arse. 

Should probably add that if fifty grand is the sum total of a life's work then handing it over to shyster companies instead of just hiding it for a rainy day might not be too sound a plan at all. 

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Castlevania

You should also try to understand how the company makes money. Ask yourself what  makes it unique, what are their strengths, weaknesses etc. Try and understand what headwinds the industry as a whole will face. Try and cover all the bases. Ultimately ask yourself if you’re comfortable investing in a particular company or industry.

For example transports have often come up as an area that should benefit going forward. I’m not sure about that, and haven’t been comfortable investing in the area, so haven’t. They may do very well going forward and I’ll miss out on that but I’m more comfortable investing in other areas that I do understand.

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