Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

People should be putting everything into my accidental share MOS 

 

Mobile Streams Plc

LON: MOS

0.38 GBX +0.11 (43.02%)

 

Comedy Gold.

This is not advice. Randomly buying shares that double in prices is a bad idea.

 

 

NYSE: MOS

11.50 USD −0.51 (4.21%)

 

Sad face 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm the contrarians contrarian.

I've got headache now what with you and the Count's mixing me up, I don't blame the share prices for it because I can sense it's definitely not a logging in day today.

[StrugglingMillennial]

Has anyone been doing any shorting today? Im interested in giving it a go but i haven't got a clue where to start.

Just some basic info on platforms e.t.c will do thanks 😉

[nirvana]

42 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I’m thinking oil is at or near lows at present

I think you could be right! But the Oil companies are following the stock market up and down, more than they are following the price of oil......

ie the cash price, the futures are up n down like a whores drawers on pay day 

4 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Has anyone been doing any shorting today? Im interested in giving it a go but i haven't got a clue where to start.

Just some basic info on platforms e.t.c will do thanks 😉

CFD, IG index and CMC......I've heard Interactive Brokers are good too.........be careful, if you're of a nervous disposition you can quite easily have a panic or a heart attack 

[Jesus Wept]

19 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Has anyone been doing any shorting today? Im interested in giving it a go but i haven't got a clue where to start.

Just some basic info on platforms e.t.c will do thanks 😉

Here a shorting watchlist I set up. 

There is also some leveraged shorting in there as well.

I would think EXTREMELY careful about holding positions for more than a day.

Check out all the information. Very high risk. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I shoulda held my accidental share....

 

Market Summary > Mobile Streams Plc

LON: MOS

0.44 GBX +0.17 (65.96%)

 

 

[Sasquatch]

12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I shoulda held my accidental share....

 

Market Summary > Mobile Streams Plc

LON: MOS

0.44 GBX +0.17 (65.96%)

 

 

I was *that close* to buying £500 worth the other day to keep you company! Shouldn't have tried to read up on them. As you said hard to work out what they do. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

I was *that close* to buying £500 worth the other day to keep you company! Shouldn't have tried to read up on them. As you said hard to work out what they do. 

It's my last post on MOS  (LSE) I'll keep my 40,000 free shares to remind me what a f**king idiot jammy **** I am.

Sorry.

On a brighter note, The nameless share bent me over and raped me today, again.

[Cosmic]

2 hours ago, confused said:

shoulda, woulda, coulda 

I thought something looked weird when the DAX spiked up massive overnight.....that was those in the know closing their longs and going short   

Notice Gold and SIlver CRASHING TOO! do you still believe these are a hedge against a crashing market!!!????? These last months tell you otherwise!!!!

I think some people need to calm down a bit! CRASHING to being up, then down, then who knows. Just need to calm down and take a longer view than 5mins

Same goes for Count, another 3% on TSTWNBN is nothing when you've already been fucked with Lucille repeatedly.

[DoINeedOne]

Bought some more Mako mining today

Minera Alamos up 100% sell half or ride it 

-------

interesting tweet i actually have read this book few years back 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rrooze/status/1255846509624668166

[nirvana]

@Cosmic Apple sorry boss you're right <deep breaths>, of course I didn't mean crash I meant 'pump n dump'! Spectacular on the DAX today, this is MT4 

 

[M S E Refugee]

1st Quarter earnings for Exxon,Chevron and Phillips 66 tomorrow.

[Shamone]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

I was told it's called "heartbreak County"!  Apparently they come with their wads and full of hope and leave poorer and wiser!  But some hardy types survive, but the ones I know are very hard and down to earth.  Most are ex forces.

.....or maybe Shropshire.

[nirvana]

Amazon trading update out soon?

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, confused said:

Amazon trading update out soon?

 

Today.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

Today.

 

[leonardratso]

terry writes an article, I do read uncle tel's articles, remember in the last he said that CNA was uninvestable, how right he was, anyhoo;

"

Financial Times
Investors: never let a crisis go to waste
Terry Smith
30th April 2020
 

We now have a fully-fledged economic crisis caused by the reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic. What should you do about it in terms of investment?

I would strongly advise avoiding the approach of many investment advisers or analysts. They spend their time speculating about what will happen. When will the lockdowns end? What will happen in the travel and hospitality industry? When will there be a vaccine (I suspect that question should be “Will there ever be an effective vaccine?”). Who will be the winners — makers of disinfectant and masks? Drug companies? E-commerce plays? Home food delivery?

In my view, all of this speculation is useless. No one knows. It is about as useful as all those “risk registers” which companies are required to produce, demonstrating that they have assessed the main risks to their business. How many of them do you suppose had “pandemic” listed prior to these events? Equally, how many will omit it in future? It is not only generals who are prone to fighting the last war.

My award for the silliest question asked by an analyst so far goes to the questioner who asked a US company presenting its quarterly results: “What would cause your device sales to be down in the second quarter?” (I’m not making this up.)

But as an old saying goes, “Never let a crisis go to waste.” You should always think about a crisis as an opportunity. This was expressed in the notorious remarks of a spin-doctor working for Stephen Byers, the former transport secretary, who wrote of 9/11, “It’s now a very good day to get out anything we want to bury.”

We can already see this advice being followed. The Investment Association has suspended its equity income requirements for 12 months. This is bad news for equity income investors. It’s not as if these requirements were exactly stringent to begin with.

To qualify for inclusion in the IA UK Equity Income sector, all a fund had to do was exceed 90 per cent of the yield on the FTSE All-Share Index each year (not a mistype — yes, a fund yielding nearly 10 per cent less than the index qualified as an income fund) and exceed the index yield on a three-year rolling basis.

In a ridiculous piece of deception, which I suspect would not be permitted in any other product, a fund can lose its Investment Association status and still carry the word “income” in its title. To paraphrase a common saying, “It doesn’t do what it says on the tin.”

To some extent the Investment Association is just acknowledging reality. By mid-April a quarter of the stocks in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index had suspended their dividends.

However, I suspect that the really bad news for equity income investors is yet to surface. As at mid-April, the dividend cover on the top 20 highest dividend yield stocks in the FTSE 100 was just 1.3 times. For the top 20 largest absolute dividend paying stocks in the UK it was 1.1 times — net profits are just 10 per cent more than the dividend.

One of the more ridiculous questions which investors and others have been asking in this crisis is, “When do you think things will get back to normal?” This ignores the fact that what came before the crisis may not have been normal.

Over time, dividend cover for most businesses cannot be sustained at 1.1-1.3 times, as most of them need retained earnings in order to grow. An average cover of two times is more normal. I would suspect that the boards of companies which have passed the dividend will indeed not be allowing a good crisis to go to waste and will return with a much smaller and more sustainable dividend which will mean much lower yields for equity income investors.

I have long said that no one should invest in equities for income. If you had invested in the IA UK Equity Income sector over the past five years, you would on average have lost nearly 1.3 per cent a year. The best way to approach this is to invest for the highest total return you can achieve and sell whatever shares or units you need to provide cash. However, I realise that for many investors, the idea of realising part of their capital to provide income is anathema. So what to do?

If you insist on investing for dividend income, consider investing alongside a family which founded and has control of a public company. Out of the 47 stocks in the Stoxx Europe 600 that are “family influenced”, only three have cancelled or postponed dividends. Very often these extended families, descended from the business founder, rely on the dividend income from the family business.

The chief executive of one of the family controlled companies we invest in at Fundsmith says his first piece of advice from the patriarch of the family was to never cut the dividend. Investing alongside them can help to preserve your income too, and in this market environment you may get some attractive opportunities to do so.

Terry Smith is the chief executive of Fundsmith LLP."

 

[Noallegiance]

All,

I've decided to stop visiting this site for a good few years.

My position is set. Aside from earn more and add to it there is nothing more that I can actively do. I understand the direction of travel. I can do no more. Continuing to beat myself over the head with multiple daily visits here is counter-productive.

I thank fortune to have stumbled upon tos and subsequently this site. I thank everybody's input. It's been part of my life for a decade.

Obvious thanks (which over the impersonal medium of t'internet is almost insulting given what I have learned) to DB. If you're still around toward the middle of the next cycle, and if I revisit here, then I look forward to your input again. If not, know that you've changed my brain in ways nobody else could that I would have otherwise come across in life.

Pretend I met you, slapped you on the back and bought you a pint.

#legend

Take care of yourselves. Sincerely.

N

[Loki]

@Noallegiance Completely understandable logic, it does get a bit like watching a kettle waiting for the boil and start doubting yourself.  But still a shame to lose a contributor to this thread.  All the best

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

And despite the swings of a reasonably volatile day, there was nothing I wanted to sell, and nothing I really wanted to buy. I made no changes all day,

This

Quote

time could have been better spent.

But not this (No work!)

I won't be here much from next week though.

[nirvana]

@Noallegiance don't go!!! GOLD is having a shit again and you need to watch it in realtime with the rest of us!!! 

EDit: graph for @Cosmic Apple 

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, confused said:

Amazon trading update out soon?

 

Looks like one of those ex-CIA opos. 

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

All,

I've decided to stop visiting this site for a good few years.

My position is set. Aside from earn more and add to it there is nothing more that I can actively do. I understand the direction of travel. I can do no more. Continuing to beat myself over the head with multiple daily visits here is counter-productive.

I thank fortune to have stumbled upon tos and subsequently this site. I thank everybody's input. It's been part of my life for a decade.

Obvious thanks (which over the impersonal medium of t'internet is almost insulting given what I have learned) to DB. If you're still around toward the middle of the next cycle, and if I revisit here, then I look forward to your input again. If not, know that you've changed my brain in ways nobody else could that I would have otherwise come across in life.

Pretend I met you, slapped you on the back and bought you a pint.

#legend

Take care of yourselves. Sincerely.

N

Learning macro strategy was the most liberating thing i have ever done.It let me imagine past the here and now.Direction of travel with a lag is what matters.Check back in around two years from now,we should be getting into the cycle by then and a lot of the smoke will of cleared.

A macro contrarian should be all smiles today,because Shell cutting the divi is the bell ringing on the end of the great dis-inflation.Most people are looking the wrong way,the end of oil,its structural etc.What it really means is we are at last at a key inflection point.Governments have created a welfare state debt fuelled nightmare economy.Inflation is now certain.Shell rang the bell.Good luck.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

All,

I've decided to stop visiting this site for a good few years.

My position is set. Aside from earn more and add to it there is nothing more that I can actively do. I understand the direction of travel. I can do no more. Continuing to beat myself over the head with multiple daily visits here is counter-productive.

I thank fortune to have stumbled upon tos and subsequently this site. I thank everybody's input. It's been part of my life for a decade.

Obvious thanks (which over the impersonal medium of t'internet is almost insulting given what I have learned) to DB. If you're still around toward the middle of the next cycle, and if I revisit here, then I look forward to your input again. If not, know that you've changed my brain in ways nobody else could that I would have otherwise come across in life.

Pretend I met you, slapped you on the back and bought you a pint.

#legend

Take care of yourselves. Sincerely.

N

Enjoy your break.

See you next April for your new ISA investments.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

All,

I've decided to stop visiting this site for a good few years.

My position is set. Aside from earn more and add to it there is nothing more that I can actively do. I understand the direction of travel. I can do no more. Continuing to beat myself over the head with multiple daily visits here is counter-productive.

I thank fortune to have stumbled upon tos and subsequently this site. I thank everybody's input. It's been part of my life for a decade.

Obvious thanks (which over the impersonal medium of t'internet is almost insulting given what I have learned) to DB. If you're still around toward the middle of the next cycle, and if I revisit here, then I look forward to your input again. If not, know that you've changed my brain in ways nobody else could that I would have otherwise come across in life.

Pretend I met you, slapped you on the back and bought you a pint.

#legend

Take care of yourselves. Sincerely.

N

All the best.  For me this ain't over and there's certainly no steady state.  A lot to come over the next year or so so this thread could be very useful as we deal with the consequences of the macro picture outlined herein.  But I would like to be in more of a "going in" position like you seem to be.  I wonder what that is.

[Errol]

For those watching the gold action today:

SGE (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is closed today through Monday. Re-opens Tues evening (Wed in Shanghai). It's not coincidental that the paper attack on gold started when the SGE night trading session was closed for 3 business days...