Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

6 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Tell me how I robbed you? I'm a boomer!

I grew up in a council house and I didn't get a FREE UNIVERSITY DEGREE! 

Admittedly the council house I grew up in wasn't in the North East, could explain why I'm not an arrogant wanker socialist who works on a building site and thinks he's not rich because its someone elses fault!

I'm not having a go at you personally so relax and I didn't call anybody an arrogant wanker*......the system is fucked, it's called neoliberalism, neofeudalism, neo/extreme whatever you want.....

The point is you could have had a free degree, like me.....my offspring have no choice in the matter....the education system is a con now

You probably got a very juicy 'defined benefits' pension? where the onus was on the employer to pay money in but the greedy corporates got rid of them....do decent pensions exist for the youth now? 

*I did jokingly call @spygirl something not nice but only cos he called me a bullshitter 

OK back to money and the coming system collapse.......do you know how much the CBs printed last month?? 

[sleepwello'nights]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Nice! Gold or silver?

Mostly Brittanias for me.  A few (total) gold 1/10, 1/4 and 1/2 sovs/brits for me just as gold is so much smaller 

I went for silver, I'm a bit of a skinflint, but I think the gold silver ratio is so extreme that it looks to give a higher potential to increase. Plus at a lower unit price they should be easier for lower value transactions in the event that things get extreme.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I went for silver, I'm a bit of a skinflint, but I think the gold silver ratio is so extreme that it looks to give a higher potential to increase. Plus at a lower unit price they should be easier for lower value transactions in the event that things get extreme.

Yes, they were both factors pushing me towards mainly silver too.  I wonder how long the price can be manipulated for...

[sancho panza]

Barclays currently back at the price I paid on my first trade back in 1990.......Went into the bank on my Grandads instructions and invested moeny I'd earned asa a security guard.....golden days.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/01/dismal-earnings-outlook-by-european-banks-reveal-scale-complexity-of-crisis-shares-hammered-back-to-1987-level/

The Stoxx 600 Banks index, which covers major European banks, fell 4.5% on Thursday. On April 21, the Stoxx 600 Banks Index had closed at 79.8, down 83% since its peak in May 2007, and the lowest since 1987.

 

 

I only hope Barclays have enoguh moolah to be able to pay top wages and retain all the talent that's perofmred so well for them.

 

separate matter.Gold :XAU ratio

 

 

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

I wonder how long the price can be manipulated for...

Forever! Sorry I'm a cynical cunt  Silver is actually lower than it was at the start of the year..........don't shoot the messenger! 

[nirvana]

David Hunter latest tweet, rally next week 

So many pundits are extrapolating today's weakness & predicting the market goes a lot lower. I disagree. I think we will see the market at new rally highs next week. I continue to like AMZN & would be a buyer here. Also semis, miners, industrials, oil stocks & even regional banks

[sleepwello'nights]

5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I'm not having a go at you personally so relax and I didn't call anybody an arrogant wanker*......the system is fucked, it's called neoliberalism, neofeudalism, neo/extreme whatever you want.....

The point is you could have had a free degree, like me.....my offspring have no choice in the matter....the education system is a con now

You probably got a very juicy 'defined benefits' pension? where the onus was on the employer to pay money in but the greedy corporates got rid of them....do decent pensions exist for the youth now? 

*I did jokingly call @spygirl something not nice but only cos he called me a bullshitter 

OK back to money and the coming system collapse.......do you know how much the CBs printed last month?? 

Apologies, It is a bug bear of mine that me and my generation have the blame laid on us for how life in the UK is working out. Each generation has its own challenges and we can all lay the blame on those who came before us. I grew up in a time when life in the UK was in a lot of respects harder than it is now.

There were opportunities because we had to rebuild after the ravages of WW2 and the population boom created its own opportunities. However the UK was pretty much a socialist society, albeit without the restrictions of surveillance by secret police. 

I don't think the system is fucked, its going through a cyclical change but it will come through and improve. Despite the current difficulties life is easier for most, we are lucky to have been born in a wealthy western country. When I look around the people I see are well dressed (sort off), well fed (some obviously too well fed), and relatively healthy. I was in China in 2017 and the number of older folks who walked badly, bow legged hunched up was far greater than you see in the UK. In the country side in Japan it was almost as bad. These were older folk, from mid 50's upwards I guess. Clearly health care in the UK has been much better. 

Sure there are problems, there always will be. BTW I don't have a defined benefit pension, I worked as a freelancer and managed to save and invest. I'm following this thread with a view to capital preservation and income. Income isn't mentioned much though most of you guys are still in the saving mode. 

As regards education neither of my two children went to university, they were more than bright enough, but they decided individually that it wasn't worth it. Both qualified professionally in their own time while working. 

 

[sleepwello'nights]

18 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

  Silver is actually lower than it was at the start of the year..........don't shoot the messenger! 

Yes its on sale. I like a bargain. 

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I like a bargain

yes I like a bargain too! One can tell if an object ie a house, a car is good value relatively easily methinks

Valuing a commodity or a 'stock market' is a lot more difficult for us minnows, particularly when the market is full of sharks!

'Price discovery' is a fascinating subject.......it always makes me smile when 'experts' say, why is this stock at $10 when it's worth at least $20! Well, price is price, that's what the value is at the moment.....

This is why most folk can't invest short term, they can't accept being wrong about the 'value' of something.......

I bid you good luck and good health sir!

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, Loki said:

Yes, they were both factors pushing me towards mainly silver too.  I wonder how long the price can be manipulated for...

$200 to $300 an ounce by 2028.I dont care how it gets there,but iv got my eye on a holiday home on the Yorkshire coast.Il buy it when my silver value goes past the cost price.At the moment my silver is 11% of the house prices im looking at.I cant get out of it if it happens,my partner keeps checking the prices 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

$200 to $300 an ounce by 2028

Mental note: Patience, discipline, dedication!

This here ain't a sprint this is a marathon

[AWW]

Those of you buying physical silver at the moment, does the premium over spot not bother you? It looks to be well over 40%.

[Loki]

Just now, AWW said:

Those of you buying physical silver at the moment, does the premium over spot not bother you? It looks to be well over 40%.

No, if you can even get hold of physical (I struggled for a bit) no one else is going to get physical for spot either.

The paper price is a manipulated abstract

[AWW]

I get that Loki, but I worry that when physical supply returns to something resembling normal and the premium falls away, I'll be sitting on an instant 30% loss (I realise that none of us are buying physical to trade on next week...)

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

I get that Loki, but I worry that when physical supply returns to something resembling normal and the premium falls away, I'll be sitting on an instant 30% loss (I realise that none of us are buying physical to trade on next week...)

The thought did cross my mind this week as 90% of my ISA went red and PMs fell.  

However silver is mostly a by-product of base metal and gold mining mostly, and with COVID shutting stuff down everywhere and a lack of demand for those industrial base metals, chances are it will make up the losses.

[AWW]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

silver is mostly a by-product of base metal and gold mining mostly

Interesting. You learn something new every day.

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, AWW said:

Interesting. You learn something new every day.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-group-secures-7-billion-credit-facility-to-protect-against-a-clearing-member-default-2020-04-30
 

Reality has to catch up with paper, one day.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Apologies, It is a bug bear of mine that me and my generation have the blame laid on us for how life in the UK is working out

I presume you're a boomer?  It's just, the generation that seems to get everything thrown at them.
Recommend the link to the movie of 'Bless This House'.   A 1972 movie in the Carry-On vein, someone posted, yesterday, or the day-before, they all run into one just now.  Was it YRS?
Anyway.  Watch the first 4 minutes, skip the first 2-and-a-half if you're time pressed, and consider the teenagers in the movie ARE the boomer generation.  Greta would be proud.
 

 

[sancho panza]

On 01/05/2020 at 13:10, Loki said:

https://www.macrovoices.com/838-macrovoices-217-dr-lacy-hunt-the-road-through-deflation-toward-eventual-hyperinflation

This looks like it could be a great listen.  Only just seen it myself.

Really superb.Covers too much for one lsiten as @MrXxxx says.......love that guy and I msut say,Erik Townsend lets him tlak which interviewers normally don't.Even addresses issue of deceling velocity amidst moeny printing.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

The simple indisputable mathematics of the U.K. Covid19 timeline is that deaths peaked on April 8th, lockdown occurred on March 23rd. 

 

Average time to death from infection is around 3.5 weeks. 
 

it’s literally an impossibility for lockdown to have “flattened the curve”. In fact, the non Covid excess deaths and the cancer tsunami over the next few years are going to show that lockdown will kill tens of thousands more than Covid19 did. 
 

Offtopic but I thought it important to say. 

[JMD]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Technocratic scientists, sigh.

I have to agree with what you're saying. I completely ignore them and get my news directly on twitter from individuals who are working scientists, where I can.

In my field of science, a small number of active, working at the coalface scientists drift into government from time to time. They are always aversge to poor in skill who tend to bullshit. The best scientists don't end up in government. They mostly don't end up in academia either (no offence to anyone here, it's just my experience), except for the few who have altruistic motives.

I don't know if this is the case in epidemiology, but I'm not impressed. I would only trust a government advisor who has been at the coalface of their field for a long time, and are just doing a short stint in government to 'give back' or whatever.

I agree but I suppose only utopias have the best people occupying the top jobs. Actually they did have a working epidemiologist on TV during this 'plandemic' (excuse my 'sick joke'!!...) and he was very good. However people forget that science in general is pretty zany, with climate science - of course - being top of the peculiar tree. But i guess we shouldn't really be surprised because science is just the latest installment in the continuam of human knowledge and can in many ways be compared to other more ancient belief systems such as religion... I won't derail thread any further but it is important i think to scrutinise how politicians are subverting this health crises, currently preping us for perhaps another two years of a 'new normal' whatever that means. Maybe it's all for the best and it is better to have a supplicant citisenry in order to steer the population more easily into accepting the financial/social actions required during the coming years of the next cycle. However as I don't believe that an economic shutdown was required to contain the virus I am left shell-shocked at how compliant we in the West have been. 

[MrXxxx]

15 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

love to chat away with specialists, especially those working with stone, lead and timber on historic buildings.

Love to chat with Tradesmen?...how disgusting, I hope you washed yourself fully with Carbolic soap afterwards?...whatever next, you will be telling us that you like to shake hands with politicians!

[Castlevania]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes there might be a lot more to this.The one left behind will be in a poor position.5G is much easier and more profitable if you own a fixed network.

Vodafone already have a fixed UK network after they bought Cable & Wireless a few years ago. They mainly supply businesses with broadband.

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, Loki said:

 

Is this from the Macrovoices site Loki?...listened to a couple of these and the Eric fella appears to have an agenda/book to promote, and uses every opportunity to garner support for this from his guests.

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes there might be a lot more to this.The one left behind will be in a poor position.5G is much easier and more profitable if you own a fixed network.

Do we have anyone on the forum that has a working knowledge of the telecoms industry who would be able to give a brief overview, very much in the same way CP has done with oil?..as a novice I would find this/found this really useful.