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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Castlevania

Does anyone understand how Phillips 66 Partners works? It seems to be some sort of tax dodge where Phillips 66 have placed all their pipelines in a separately listed company. Yet they share the same website as Phillips 66?

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Hi all. Asking for some views on the following... I am sometimes asked this but find i'm at a bit of a loss when it comes to where to recommend.    

Ok, if a non-expert layman (not me, as after much effort have proudly graduated to investment imbecile!) wanted a gentle intro/explanation to the financial/economic problems we are facing, the theory and possible solutions - i.e. the essence of this forum, in terms of coming debt deflation and next cycle inflation - where might you 'send' such an enquiring person?... Hoping for a recommendation of perhaps a UK based website that explains things in a straightforward but meaningful way? 

(btw, prefer a UK site, nothing against American bloggers, etc. Just that they tend to hype things and that can make their central argument sound less convincing, unless of course you already 'get' the concerns/theory they are expounding.)

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3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I think at present (and maybe for the rest of the deflation cycle) when buying you have to `think like an American` and pretend the divi doesn't exist..that way you won't be relying on it.

Is that like my small holding of Premier Foods?

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Transistor Man
6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.BTs divi cut is more political,they want a good deal from the regulator and will get one.Government is desperate for investment.

The Huawei cap is a good excuse too.

, only 35% of the full fiber and 5G networks can use the cheaper Huawei equipment, changing BT’s plans ........ I guess that fraction may go to zero. 

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leonardratso

BTC certainly is on a bull run now, hows your etf doing, its hit 3 of my sell points just today, looks like its going to take out the last 4 as well, then ill be totally cash again in there,  probably jinxed it now, it often turns on a dime and dives like a jap ww2 plane.

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leonardratso

heheh, 7950 just blew out as well, wow 4 in a day, time to cash that out and blow it on crap.

8021 now, wonder whats going on, pump n dump? ah well, ill leave it now, moved all the sell points up, nice to get some free money off the chinese for a change.

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DurhamBorn
41 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

The Huawei cap is a good excuse too.

, only 35% of the full fiber and 5G networks can use the cheaper Huawei equipment, changing BT’s plans ........ I guess that fraction may go to zero. 

Yes it might.Lots of politics involved at the moment.BT need a good deal from the regulator and government for the roll out.They will get a far better one being able to say we have stopped divi etc.I think the divi might be 24p a share by the end of the cycle and maybe some special divis etc.Telcos have big depreciation and capital spending,but that should fall later in the cycle.I think they will bring the divi back earlier than they are saying.

Anyone living on divis must be really worried now though because they are going to have to start selling assets,distribution cycle in action.

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Ellandback
On 06/05/2020 at 10:58, DurhamBorn said:

The silver stocks i see with the biggest beta to the silver price (so most likely to outperform in a rising silver price,but bend you over and roger you in a falling one).This is not based on fundamentals quality,reserves or anything ,just beta to silver price.

Endeavour Silver 2.46 beta

American Silver Corp 2.32

Fortuna Silver 2.30

First majestic 2.17

Avino Silver 2.09

Great Panther 1.72

Coeur Mining 1.70

 

I own them in that order.I would add they are very very risky,and if silver falls they will inflict great pain.I could take an entire wipe out from them all without worrying much, and thats the way to view silver miners.However i think at least one of the above will 20x or even 50x in the cycle ahead and a couple probably fail.If i was young and only had a small amount of capital,but was prepared to lose it all,then thats where id put it for the cycle.

Not advice DYOR etc,

What's the ticker for the above endeavour DB? I've bought EDR last September and was just going to buy a few more today but noticed there is also EDV Endeavour on HL, which is up today where as EDR is down. Got a horrible feeling I've made a rookie error here. :D

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1 hour ago, JMD said:

Hi all. Asking for some views on the following... I am sometimes asked this but find i'm at a bit of a loss when it comes to where to recommend.    

Ok, if a non-expert layman (not me, as after much effort have proudly graduated to investment imbecile!) wanted a gentle intro/explanation to the financial/economic problems we are facing, the theory and possible solutions - i.e. the essence of this forum, in terms of coming debt deflation and next cycle inflation - where might you 'send' such an enquiring person?... Hoping for a recommendation of perhaps a UK based website that explains things in a straightforward but meaningful way? 

(btw, prefer a UK site, nothing against American bloggers, etc. Just that they tend to hype things and that can make their central argument sound less convincing, unless of course you already 'get' the concerns/theory they are expounding.)

The beginning of this thread. It’s like the last episode of The Sopranos - “ It’s all there.” Failing that, any one of David Icke’s tomes.

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Castlevania
1 hour ago, Ellandback said:

What's the ticker for the above endeavour DB? I've bought EDR last September and was just going to buy a few more today but noticed there is also EDV Endeavour on HL, which is up today where as EDR is down. Got a horrible feeling I've made a rookie error here. :D

EDR is Endeavour Silver

EDV is Endeavour Mining - they’re predominantly a gold miner

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The Idiocrat
3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

heheh, 7950 just blew out as well, wow 4 in a day, time to cash that out and blow it on crap.

8021 now, wonder whats going on, pump n dump? ah well, ill leave it now, moved all the sell points up, nice to get some free money off the chinese for a change.

I think it's all to do with the halving next week.

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Eventually Right
8 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

I think it's all to do with the halving next week.

I think the spike today is because Paul Tudor Jones has “endorsed” it and said he sees it as a hedge against inflation. 
Gives it a credibility boost.

i do wonder if the halvening might be a “sell the news” event.

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leonardratso
5 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

I think the spike today is because Paul Tudor Jones has “endorsed” it and said he sees it as a hedge against inflation. 
Gives it a credibility boost.

i do wonder if the halvening might be a “sell the news” event.

i hope so, i wouldnt mind selling out now, been in since £5400, if that falls and the LTC-BTC/BCH-BTC ratios improve ill swap em all out back into BTC for a take off again in the future. its like 2018 all over again, but on a much smaller scale.

 

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Does anyone understand how Phillips 66 Partners works? It seems to be some sort of tax dodge where Phillips 66 have placed all their pipelines in a separately listed company. Yet they share the same website as Phillips 66?

You have to be careful with these CV. @Viceroy knows a lot more if they're aorund. I considered buying a small holding in a US based share that was a partnership,as part of my XES/OIH purchases.These partnerships could involve a different type of tax return that needs to be filed in the US. Stick to the equity if I was you unless it's a big moeny punt.

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes it might.Lots of politics involved at the moment.BT need a good deal from the regulator and government for the roll out.They will get a far better one being able to say we have stopped divi etc.I think the divi might be 24p a share by the end of the cycle and maybe some special divis etc.Telcos have big depreciation and capital spending,but that should fall later in the cycle.I think they will bring the divi back earlier than they are saying.

Anyone living on divis must be really worried now though because they are going to have to start selling assets,distribution cycle in action.

I had a quick buthcer's at a few Telecoms today and I msut sya some of the balance sheets are reminiscent of teh Scottish play ie the whole sector carries a lot of debt,some carry a lot more than others,eg BT/Telefonica vs Singtel/vod

'"If you can look into the seeds of time,
And say which grain will grow and which will not."
- William Shakespeare,'

Decl-got a few Vod

image.png.8ba65ff3d1ee5e3810518c761ef4ac29.png

image.png.02f3140807e7a8e4107eba7bcb95a2b0.png

image.png.77db71782a0e570f5ac53b92a2b73b5a.png

image.png.b22fde01522e989860c995d8ffab94af.png

 

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Hi all. Asking for some views on the following... I am sometimes asked this but find i'm at a bit of a loss when it comes to where to recommend.    

Ok, if a non-expert layman (not me, as after much effort have proudly graduated to investment imbecile!) wanted a gentle intro/explanation to the financial/economic problems we are facing, the theory and possible solutions - i.e. the essence of this forum, in terms of coming debt deflation and next cycle inflation - where might you 'send' such an enquiring person?... Hoping for a recommendation of perhaps a UK based website that explains things in a straightforward but meaningful way? 

(btw, prefer a UK site, nothing against American bloggers, etc. Just that they tend to hype things and that can make their central argument sound less convincing, unless of course you already 'get' the concerns/theory they are expounding.)

Wolf St/Mish SHedlock are a great place to start

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3 hours ago, Shamone said:

The beginning of this thread. It’s like the last episode of The Sopranos - “ It’s all there.” Failing that, any one of David Icke’s tomes.

Thanks for responding, but re. a site to recommend to beginners, I was thinking more along the lines that to fully engage someone's interest who's not necesarily familiar with investment terminology, etc, I think I was hoping to refer such a person to a more consolidated reference. DBs and many others posts here are excellent but this forum is more a stream of discussion points, and I think a newbie would need the fundamentals presented in a more easily digestible way. If such a site (or book; btw, even disregarding his feudal lizard overlord theory, were you really serious about David Ike?) doesn't exist that's a shame because more people should be introduced to this subject - they could then migrate onto here if they wanted, but do consider this forum as more 'investment focused' and so might be a bit of a turnoff for the casual/beginner reader.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I had a quick buthcer's at a few Telecoms today and I msut sya some of the balance sheets are reminiscent of teh Scottish play ie the whole sector carries a lot of debt,some carry a lot more than others,eg BT/Telefonica vs Singtel/vod

'"If you can look into the seeds of time,
And say which grain will grow and which will not."
- William Shakespeare,'

Decl-got a few Vod

image.png.8ba65ff3d1ee5e3810518c761ef4ac29.png

image.png.02f3140807e7a8e4107eba7bcb95a2b0.png

image.png.77db71782a0e570f5ac53b92a2b73b5a.png

image.png.b22fde01522e989860c995d8ffab94af.png

 

Wolf St/Mish SHedlock are a great place to start

Thanks SP. I'll take another look at a Wollf/Sherlock them. Was hoping for a UK site. Was also thinking of more content explaining fundamentals like how we got here, likely outcomes. Bit mundane but would put events into context. Perhaps a book is better suited for providing all this.

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On 06/05/2020 at 23:37, sancho panza said:

hought on Japan and why they haven't experienced price inflaiton despite the printing-they're export driven economy,any price rises get passed on.Difference is for the West we're mainly runnign trade deficits,so repatriating jobs will necessarily raise prices/weakening currencies will weaken currenceis

It's snippets like this that for me make this forum so worthwhile, the final piece of the `jigsaw` (that I didn't even realize was in the box) that helps me `see the picture`

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22 hours ago, Harley said:

Given this messy end of cycle stuff, I'm looking for non-investment things to do with my cash to diversify a bit.  Currently buying (investing in) stuff which will make my life cheaper in the longer run.  I had also looked at my pension forecast and although I had missing years, the lady I spoke to said there was little point paying for more.  But then I thought, suppose they change the rules and your contribution history does matter more in some new way (e.g. UBI)?  OK, may not and who knows about the future state pension but relatively cheap insurance (especially versus bank bail-ins and/or a wealth tax, etc).  Any other diversification ideas?

I know what you mean, the additional £700ish for each additional year looks incredible value for money BUT looking at the way governments have behaved in the last 10 years (& especially with Covid) it doesn't install confidence, and could/is a very risky bet where the additional funds could be confiscated over night and there would be nothing you could do.

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DurhamBorn

Very interesting from the CEO of BAE.The government havent has an industrial strategy since the 1970s.I think the government might decide to use whats left of our base to start things off.Very easy to order a couple of extra ships and state how much must be made in the UK.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8297841/Manufacturing-key-recovery-says-UKs-biggest-defense-firm.html

'We're engaged in discussions with the Government around the development of a revitalised industrial strategy to reinforce Britain's place as a world leader in manufacturing and innovation,' he says, speaking from his home in Surrey. 

His view is that we need to row back on the hollowing out of the UK's industrial manufacturing base that has taken place over many years. The virus has thrown into sharp relief the issue of how much of our manufacturing has shifted overseas, including to China.

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DurhamBorn
3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I know what you mean, the additional £700ish for each additional year looks incredible value for money BUT looking at the way governments have behaved in the last 10 years (& especially with Covid) it doesn't install confidence, and could/is a very risky bet where the additional funds could be confiscated over night and there would be nothing you could do.

You can get a year for £130,just claim sole trader and pay the class 2 stamp,put profit at £1 you sold a pair of shoes on Gumtree.Im claiming free years from the "specified adult childcare credit" if you have grandchildren and the mother pays NI from work you can claim the credit attached to the child benefit,you have to put a form in every october for each year,but it takes about 2 minutes to fill in.Im only 2 years short now but will keep claiming those until im at 40 years in case the swine change the years rule again.

I have a feeling they are going to merge NI and income tax because it would mean a small saving for working people ,but big increase for pensioners.

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21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

You can get a year for £130,just claim sole trader and pay the class 2 stamp,put profit at £1 you sold a pair of shoes on Gumtree.Im claiming free years from the "specified adult childcare credit" if you have grandchildren and the mother pays NI from work you can claim the credit attached to the child benefit,you have to put a form in every october for each year,but it takes about 2 minutes to fill in.Im only 2 years short now but will keep claiming those until im at 40 years in case the swine change the years rule again.

I have a feeling they are going to merge NI and income tax because it would mean a small saving for working people ,but big increase for pensioners.

Blimey, well worth knowing about that one...stored in my memory bank for future use, thanks.

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34 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very easy to order a couple of extra ships and state how much must be made in the UK.

INFA may yet come good...NGD up today too

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