Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bobthebuilder]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

As in my diver days when things got a bit hairy, just hug yourself! 

Ive been 30+ meters down and had to deal with a couple of problems, like zero viz due to silt, i found holding hands helped.

[MrXxxx]

15 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Ive been 30+ meters down and had to deal with a couple of problems, like zero viz due to silt, i found holding hands helped.

This reminds me of that Chuck Berry song for some strange reason:

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Ive been 30+ meters down and had to deal with a couple of problems, like zero viz due to silt, i found holding hands helped.

Excuse me, foocking Navy mate, not the puffy Arty Farce!

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Indeed.  They still have an unfinished war!

Exactly Harley.You always hear the narrative about nobody could war with China on the ground when India could with Western arms.Western companies moving production to India from China would serve a dual purpose.The US could easily grease the way with tariffs.In return the US would expect India to import farm products etc.

They are already having the odd scrap on the borders

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/iaf-had-to-scramble-fighter-jets-to-india-china-lac-in-ladakh-report-11589267490692.html

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly Harley.You always hear the narrative about nobody could war with China on the ground when India could with Western arms.Western companies moving production to India from China would serve a dual purpose.The US could easily grease the way with tariffs.In return the US would expect India to import farm products etc.

They are already having the odd scrap on the borders

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/iaf-had-to-scramble-fighter-jets-to-india-china-lac-in-ladakh-report-11589267490692.html

1962.  Still simmering along then

[Shamone]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

I wasn't limiting myself to the oilies, by a long way.  I once had cause to trace an ownership chain as part of an acquisition and ended up with a secretive private equity company resident in the Caribbean.  All sorts could be going on, including secretive shares for favours.  Great if you are on the inside proper (i.e. not a patsy just thinking you are).  There's also a TED talk on the matter by a biologist(?) who leveraged their trace techniques to look into who owns what in the financial world.  Ultimately came down to a handful, like 60 or 600 odd people/organisations/families.  Max Keiser has been all over this subject.  

‘Moneyland’ is worth a read.

[sancho panza]

 

8 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

I am quite concerned at the moment of staying in cash. 

I was very interested to catch up with David Hunter's latest macro blog and his prediction of a final melt up to labor day and then the big slide downwards for stocks (

I'd keep your cash at the systemic banks if you're anxious about the £85k.

If you're anxious you can shovel it into Gilts for a period in a Crest account.

I think Labor Day is a key date historically in trading US stocks as usually ,any nervousness for October shows then.Personally,I think we'll get through this year before the big kahuna but Labor Day is big on my horizon.

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

 America doesn't need Chinese trade if it can still print the worlds reserve currency. And China badly needs the dollars. The China hawks in Washington will now be pushing for a proper 'realignment' with them. I expect to see massive onshoring announcements in the run up to the election, and it may well get Trump re-elected. The US can effectively force companies to bring manufacturing back to the US by shutting off dollars to China. Supply chains there will break down quickly, no one wants to be paid in Yuan. And I have to admit, as a guy from a humble working class backround, I think onshoring is the right thing to do. Being able to support his family with a good, secure job is all a working class guy really wants. Well some beer and a truck too, of course! I would love to see those opiate devastated rust belt communities celebrating the opening of a new factory. What goes for the US, goes for the UK a little bit later. 

The calculus has shifted. If you're not on the list of swap line countries, you are going to suffer.

What that means for us here is for example I have been very happy with discounted Mexican miners like Fresnillo, when others see risk there. There is no risk of nationalisation in Mexico as long as they still want to get dollars at the Fed.

This whole notion of suppy lines getting shorter/onshoring is very compelling and could be the basis of some serious cost push inflation.

I have to agree on onshoring working out for Main St.I voted for Ukip for years on that basis for my sins.

I think your point re swap lines is bang on.I think the Chinese are in deep trouble and when their shadow banking system implodes it will be an epic watch.

7 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, did you see the recent BBC series DEVS? I thought it was great btw, but anyway if you did see it, then surely you realise already that everything is/has been written in our 'stars'  - or in our 'simulation'!... makes your head hurt if you dwell to long on this kind of stuff (if you didn't watch it, please excuse my strange interjection).

No idea JMD…….I read this forum in the evenings while Mrs P watches TV.She doesn't do sci fi.:-)

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yeah,i think its certain big shareholders have warned them.I think the divi should of been cut at Shell,but 30% cut not 66%.I expect it will go back to what will be a 30% to 40% cut.

Im really pleased that Trump is now putting it out there about China,a key part of the inflation road map is that this would happen and force both blocks to put the pedal to the metal.Uk should be able to supply lots of arms to the Aussie's they will want ships for certain.

I think a lot will come back west,but the easy stuff will go to India.Expect moves soon where the US and the UK really start to big up India.They hate the chinks and a strong India is a nightmare for China.

If they shut China down then it's game on and we don't have to worry about us going Japanese.

India will be a beneficiary but could see China starting to take over Pakistan.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I read something recently that India have an area the size of Luxembourg pertmitted, cleared and ready for factories etc.

I think this is very likely, both brownouts and modular nuclear. RR will never be allowed go bust IMO, it's strategically impor

My only issue with RR is entry price.I don't think we're near the bottom yet.

 

Meanwhile in the US,pictures paint 1000's words

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/14/week-8-of-the-collapse-of-the-u-s-labor-market-nearing-a-previously-unthinkably-deep-bottom/

This number of “insured unemployed” rose by 456,000 to 22.83 million for the week ending April 25. The sad record of the pre-Covid-19 era was 6.63 million in May of 2009. This chart shows the spike in historic context:

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Good lad!  As in my diver days when things got a bit hairy, just hug yourself!  This could be one freaky ride.  And as DB says, the main (maybe most realistic) objective is to just to manage to do less bad.  I've suffered paralysis for too long and am now royally sick of it.  This stuff is really hard mentally but I've got better support and recognition this time round and maybe more (slowly accumulated) critical mass to build on.  I've banked too many good (non-material) things in life to be scared anymore so "whatever".  Bring it on, if the cowardly bullies dare!   I may crudely go on about such "off topic" shite but getting in the right head space is paramount.  Too many castles have been in built in the sand.   Resilience.

Very true Harley. I think i've gotten over my shock/awe ref recent 'political mischief and market corrections' - so much so that I'm downplaying it already! My main focus now is to not become a helpless victim for whats about to unfold and be inflicted upon most over the coming decade. And yes, I certainly would consider it a win just to get through the next cycle with my wealth intact, so long as this included being well positioned investment wise (whatever that may require I'm not sure) for the 2028? main-event. Just hope this forum is still going strong  then as sure to need the wisdom of the forum members even more so then, as DB has stated that 2028 will likely be very very bad and we ain't seen nothing yet!

[Barnsey]

I wonder if it might finally be the time for me to start making some calculated low ball offers on closely watched houses in my area? 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I read something recently that India have an area the size of Luxembourg pertmitted, cleared and ready for factories etc.

That's interesting. I think I'll look out for a India fund that is focused to capitalise on increased Indian exports to the West. Of course evan better if had inside knowledge of the new tenants (and their export licences!) of that new business park, then would buy those co's directly.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Is the problem not that the compensation scheme limit is per bank and the providers are sharing the same banks (but good luck getting that level of detail from them)?  I'm actively researching drawdown.   Take out 25% tax free, shove in NS&I, etc and then filter back into ISAs, etc.  And that includes a normal trading account (overseas?).  People forget the first £12,300 or whatever of gains per person per year is CGT free which would be enough for me to live on, should I be lucky enough to make that much (even more if I include up to another £12,500 income).  So a couple could take out £24,600 capital gains plus £25,000 tax free income a year.  Far more than we need.

Yes same here my plan was to take the 25% tax free amount and put into ISAs. 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

It's impossible to be sure of making the right decision but decisions ultimately need to be made. I think the majority view amongst the dosbods lot and similar minded people outside is that cash will be a very poor choice long term as inflation takes hold. I want to get our personal money into the right long term home (we are trying to move at the moment!) and bring this new house up to a high spec level in terms of repair and fit out. Second to this is buying all of the useful gear one would aspire to owning (garden equipment and tools, trailer for car etc, DIY equipment, ) and then leisure equipment (ie bicycles, walking gear and the like). At that point any spare cash needs to be kept somewhere - maybe in premium bonds or a decent interest bearing account with the best bank/surety you can find. Business money may end up being used to buy property and partly drawn down on an annual basis. We may help our children buy their first homes and it's also possible we could buy our aged parents a house which they could rent back from our business. Again, we need to get the business money out of cash as a medium term goal (3 to 5 years). We are aiming to be fully retired within the next 5 years.

Finally I have a SIPP which I took into my 100% total control last year (it was previously a SIPP being partly handled by an IFA). It's with James Hay. 65% is in gold (via bullionvault), 20% in reflation stocks, 15% currently in cash. I may put the remaining cash into gold but will see if there is a pull back later in the summer before doing this. The SIPP is above the £85,000 FSCS compensation level but I'm reasonably relaxed as more than half of the SIPP money is sat in bullionvault. Worst case scenario would be the SIPP provider going bust and the inevitable delay as my SIPP got transferred to a new provider. The bullionvault account and Selftrade accounts would presumably simply transfer across. I haven't dug deep into the consequences of a SIPP provider going bust but unless someone can tell me otherwise, I would think the only risk would be monies held in the cash above the £85,000 level.

Can't fault your plan, you appear to have things well sorted out. I will be relocating north and buying a larger property with the intention to earn income 'from part of property' in the form of holiday let/annex/etc, haven't really decided on what exactly, as am hoping that the new deflation cycle will throw up some new/exciting? opportunities. But it does need to involve capitol expenditure because my main objective is to invest some of my cash.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

11 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

@YRS bought them in the morning before they dropped and then after a good lunch changed his mind and sold them in the afternoon? :-) :-) :-)

 

Boy can you read my mind!

 

In other news

 

as per DB thread:

The UK government has announced a £2bn programme of road and rail repairs:

won't be long before our SGC rocket!

 

AND whats this?

 

"Coronavirus: UK house prices could take a year *40 YEARS* to recover as mortgage arrears edge higher"

 

This reporter Tom Belger is full of SH*T!

 

Just checked the area where i was looking to buy 18 months ago, this bungalow in Yateley would of gone for £325K (i know this road) ...AND there would of been a queue of SUCKERS!

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-68308050.html

 

ITS just sold for £275K that's a 50K REDUCTION, I see more of this, as @spygirl says ...let the SE burn!

 

...meanwhile the village in the Cotswolds where i live, the lady opposite has been trying to sell her house for a year, its just gone STC, SHE HADN'T reduced the price anymore, makes me wonder if folks are more likely to buy in the countryside because of the CV? (AND of course its a LOT CHEAPER!)

 

@Harley love ya new avatar pic, a "Déjà Vu" moment for me escaping that shitHoleTown near heathrow last October on a heli!

 

BTW, our SBRY.L looks like hitting a double bottom on the 1 year chart (£1.79) ? so I'll be buying MORE ... so ya know what that means!

 

"Hargreaves Lansdown lands £4bn of cash inflows from customers during pandemic!"

Is that @Democorruptcy piling in?

 

Blimey, HL should give us good folks here BETTER DISCOUNT dealing rates in that case!

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

"Hargreaves Lansdown lands £4bn of cash inflows from customers during pandemic!"

Is that @Democorruptcy piling in?

 

Blimey, HL should give us good folks here BETTER DISCOUNT dealing rates in that case!

 

 

 

I wish some of my share purchases were still in cash!

RMG CEO thrown the towel in today

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-mail-plc-ordinary-gbp0.01

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

@Harley love ya new avatar pic, a "Déjà Vu" moment for me escaping that shitHoleTown near heathrow last October on a heli!

Why thank you!  I like to stay current!  Methinks the gin like credit phase is now over!

So you moved from Heathrow area (I know quite well) to the Cotswolds?  Top stuff.  You got a cunning plan too or just like Japanese tourists?!

 

[geordie_lurch]

21 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Any dip buyers today?

I know I said I'd buy BT at 99p but I'm having second thoughts now 

Seems like they are doing ok today @5min OCD speculator  (115p at typing this) based on rumours they might be about to sell stake in Openreach after dropping to 98.5p at one stage I think yesterday but I'm aware it's all noise based on long term laddering etc.

[Harley]

I've read that IG Index provides free access to Real Vision.  Does anyone know if this applies only to their US customers or can UK ones get it too?  Ta.

[Sasquatch]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Can't fault your plan, you appear to have things well sorted out. I will be relocating north and buying a larger property with the intention to earn income 'from part of property' in the form of holiday let/annex/etc, haven't really decided on what exactly, as am hoping that the new deflation cycle will throw up some new/exciting? opportunities. But it does need to involve capitol expenditure because my main objective is to invest some of my cash.

Let's make sure we don't end up both trying to buy the same house!

We are planning a series of trips/short breaks over the next few months to help pinpoint our preferred area. At the end of the day, the location is the most important factor (for us at least). 

[Castlevania]

40 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've read that IG Index provides free access to Real Vision.  Does anyone know if this applies only to their US customers or can UK ones get it too?  Ta.

U.K. too

[DoINeedOne]

19 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I read something recently that India have an area the size of Luxembourg pertmitted, cleared and ready for factories etc.

 

10 hours ago, JMD said:

That's interesting. I think I'll look out for a India fund that is focused to capitalise on increased Indian exports to the West. Of course evan better if had inside knowledge of the new tenants (and their export licences!) of that new business park, then would buy those co's directly.

Maybe interesting to look at some REITS read recently that India has only in the last year or so got its laws or guidelines in order for REITS as they only seem to just starting to become a thing there - how true that is im not sure

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I wish some of my share purchases were still in cash!

RMG CEO thrown the towel in today

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-mail-plc-ordinary-gbp0.01

Not the best news, he seemed to have an idea of the direction he wanted to take them  - i don't know i don't work for them think @M S E Refugee does wonder what he's/her view is 

[M S E Refugee]

44 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

Maybe interesting to look at some REITS read recently that India has only in the last year or so got its laws or guidelines in order for REITS as they only seem to just starting to become a thing there - how true that is im not sure

Not the best news, he seemed to have an idea of the direction he wanted to take them  - i don't know i don't work for them think @M S E Refugee does wonder what he's/her view is 

It's good news that he has gone.

He was very greedy and arrogant and managed Royal Mail on a part time basis from his home in Switzerland.

Also he was unwilling to engage with the Union and was obstructive when the Union wanted to do a deal on pay and new ways of working, he also ignored previous agreements.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

U.K. too

Ta.  Sounds like it might be cheaper to reopen my account than just take out a basic sub.

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

It's good news that he has gone.

He was very greedy and arrogant and managed Royal Mail on a part time basis from his home in Switzerland.

Also he was unwilling to engage with the Union and was obstructive when the Union wanted to do a deal on pay and new ways of working, he also ignored previous agreements.

My postie was wearing fancy dress today.  Connected?

[janch]

40 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta.  Sounds like it might be cheaper to reopen my account than just take out a basic sub.

My postie was wearing fancy dress today.  Connected?

Mine was wearing a letter-box costume!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52673690

"Keith Williams, the former boss of BA, will take over as executive chairman.

Royal Mail said that Mr Williams said will lead discussions "about an accelerated pace of change across the business".