Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Wheeler]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got quite a few collections of things from Victorian times that arent legal these days  Maybe we should set up a Ltd and buy a silver mine ,are there any in the UK?,gold in the lake district in places.

 

At their conquest of England in 1066, and the subsequent occupation of parts of Wales, the Normans inherited a dispersed, small scale silver mining industry exploiting silver bearing lead ores. The mines were to be found on the Carboniferous limestone uplands like the Derbyshire Peak, Mendip, the Welsh borders and the northern Pennines where shallow enriched ore deposits had escaped the effects of glaciation. Deeper seated deposits in the pre-Carboniferous rocks, particularly in the South-West of England which escaped the full effect of glaciation, were not exploited until the latter part of the 13th century and it was the mines of Tynedale and upper Weardale in the northern Pennines which provided the peak of English silver production in the mid 12th century.

From http://people.exeter.ac.uk/pfclaugh/mhinf/synopsis.htm

 

You wouldn't have far to commute.

[M S E Refugee]

Francis is very bullish on Silver,I quite like him but he's as mad as a box of frogs.

[DurhamBorn]

20 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

 

At their conquest of England in 1066, and the subsequent occupation of parts of Wales, the Normans inherited a dispersed, small scale silver mining industry exploiting silver bearing lead ores. The mines were to be found on the Carboniferous limestone uplands like the Derbyshire Peak, Mendip, the Welsh borders and the northern Pennines where shallow enriched ore deposits had escaped the effects of glaciation. Deeper seated deposits in the pre-Carboniferous rocks, particularly in the South-West of England which escaped the full effect of glaciation, were not exploited until the latter part of the 13th century and it was the mines of Tynedale and upper Weardale in the northern Pennines which provided the peak of English silver production in the mid 12th century.

From http://people.exeter.ac.uk/pfclaugh/mhinf/synopsis.htm

 

You wouldn't have far to commute.

My godfathers brothers worked in the Weardale mines for Flurospar,i think it was used in iron/steel making.They used to be lead mines,i guess they got the silver at the same time,there are quite a few streams in Westgate that run through the old mines maybe i should go and pan a few.We will have to get @Cattle Prod to look at the geology ,crikey im only 20 minutes away from old silver mines 

[sancho panza]

20 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I wonder if it might finally be the time for me to start making some calculated low ball offers on closely watched houses in my area? 

I'd wait out.Things haven't even begun to get bad.But then it might be best to ignore me,I thought HPI in the UK was insane in 2003

11 hours ago, Harley said:

I've read that IG Index provides free access to Real Vision.  Does anyone know if this applies only to their US customers or can UK ones get it too?  Ta.

I've an IG accoutn.I had a quick look today but couldn't find it.If you or @Castlevania let me know how to find it I'll elt you know if it's there.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver and the silver miners getting a bid.Working mans gold coming to life as people sniff currency destruction.Government is sending me freshly printed furlough money and i exchange it for silver.

By 2028 i think people will want at least 10x the amount of this printed stuff to exchange me an oz.

If the miners really run hard  its going to be crucial to try to understand if we will are entering a reflation with a sector re-allocation from here or if there is one last hammer down.

 

Like that phrase btw.Impressive effort.IKN killed it with his YRS style 'forget silver in 2020' call from a week or two back.Must say, @Majorpain, Hochchild look remarkably cheap for where we are. Still,amazed Hecla and Couer are two of the lead recipients of the bid.Fres looks cheap too.

Been buying Osisko,NGD,NCM and BVN this week,jsut topping up.Looks like we're done for buying these if there's no pull backs.

 

Talking of catching bids.WTI ended at $29..........

7 hours ago, janch said:

A comment from another blog with a similar outlook to @DurhamBorn or is it someone from here?

Charlie said...

House prices in GBP: perhaps up to 20% falls, but the currency will be sacrificed (again) to keep nominal falls as small as possible. House prices to halve in gold.

I feel Mr Market is starting to wake up to the fact that it's end of cycle, and the next one will be a) industrial and b) inflationary. That's the coming macro environment that I'm positioned for and is, I think, the reason for FTSE knocking on the door of 6k. Some FTSE listed companies still look cheap, but there's at least half the index I wouldn't touch even if it halved from here.

Blog is :  http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/

City unslicker used ot psot on ToS iirc.I agree with his sentiments on half the index and mentioned a few to @Harley t'other night.This is why it annoys when people talk about the stock market being overpriced.Some parts of it are but huge chunks are cheap.

[sancho panza]

Interesting take from DiMartion Booth on negative rates,saying clear evidence they didn't work in Japan and EU,so Powell clearly stepping away.

 

 

Separate matter,Moenyweek published an amzing graph on US employment post covid.Has to be seen to be beleived.The drop in US employment is off the scale compared to 2008..............................

[Democorruptcy]

Fed Stability Report

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Separate matter,Moenyweek published an amzing graph on US employment post covid.Has to be seen to be beleived.The drop in US employment is off the scale compared to 2008.....................

You should see the Aussie one!

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

You should see the Aussie one!

Impressive.I wonder what'll happen to the hosue prices?

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unemployment-figures-will-be-bad-here-s-why-the-reality-is-worse-20200513-p54shw.html

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/15/boris-johnson-no-public-sector-pay-freeze-no-austerity-uk-emerges/

 

Prime Minister tells members of 1922 committee Government is looking at spending heavily on infrastructure as Britain exits lockdown 

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/15/boris-johnson-no-public-sector-pay-freeze-no-austerity-uk-emerges/

 

Prime Minister tells members of 1922 committee Government is looking at spending heavily on infrastructure as Britain exits lockdown 

If our UB figures are anything like teh USA/Oz then I can see why.Holy smoly........

[Castlevania]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

If the miners really run hard  its going to be crucial to try to understand if we will are entering a reflation with a sector re-allocation from here or if there is one last hammer down.

 

This is the difficult part. I can see the logic behind both scenarios.

[Castlevania]

10 hours ago, Wheeler said:

 

At their conquest of England in 1066, and the subsequent occupation of parts of Wales, the Normans inherited a dispersed, small scale silver mining industry exploiting silver bearing lead ores. The mines were to be found on the Carboniferous limestone uplands like the Derbyshire Peak, Mendip, the Welsh borders and the northern Pennines where shallow enriched ore deposits had escaped the effects of glaciation. Deeper seated deposits in the pre-Carboniferous rocks, particularly in the South-West of England which escaped the full effect of glaciation, were not exploited until the latter part of the 13th century and it was the mines of Tynedale and upper Weardale in the northern Pennines which provided the peak of English silver production in the mid 12th century.

From http://people.exeter.ac.uk/pfclaugh/mhinf/synopsis.htm

 

You wouldn't have far to commute.

The downside is that it’s in lead ore. Nasty stuff. My forefathers were silver lead miners. I looked into it and in the silver mining villages the average life expectancy for men was 35. Main cause of death - lead poisoning.

[Bricks & Mortar]

Which one of you works for the Fed Board of Governors and wrote a report based on the thread?

I think they do one of these every 6 months.  This one...  Wow! 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20200515.pdf

[Majorpain]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Like that phrase btw.Impressive effort.IKN killed it with his YRS style 'forget silver in 2020' call from a week or two back.Must say, @Majorpain, Hochchild look remarkably cheap for where we are. Still,amazed Hecla and Couer are two of the lead recipients of the bid.Fres looks cheap too.

Yeah, they are starting to come good, whilst both have issues with costs, i'm not quite sure fair value is down 1/3 for their 2016 peaks.  I picked up some more Fres in the low 600's which is looking like a good bit of business.

 

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

If our UB figures are anything like teh USA/Oz then I can see why.Holy smoly........

Majority of the damage is being hidden by furlough, we are keeping people on who would otherwise have been let go weeks ago.  25% of the workforce going kaput at once would have been "interesting".

 

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

The downside is that it’s in lead ore. Nasty stuff. My forefathers were silver lead miners. I looked into it and in the silver mining villages the average life expectancy for men was 35. Main cause of death - lead poisoning.

My family on one side were Weardale lead miners for 10 generations, definitely not the job for a long and healthy life!

[MrXxxx]

Interesting podcast on PM investment/market

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-hot-topic-podcasts/826-hot-topic-13-gold-for-grownups-jeff-christian-debunks-the-myths-of-the-market

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 15/05/2020 at 09:26, Democorruptcy said:

I wish some of my share purchases were still in cash!

RMG CEO thrown the towel in today

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-mail-plc-ordinary-gbp0.01

 

@Democorruptcy Yeah I'm fully loaded now with RMG as well, still not to bad as an average price of around £1.90

 

Reason i bought more i saw Rico Back buy 1/2 million £ worth of shares back in February , even though hes a multimillionaire ...his purchase £537,676.80  is hardly chump-change?!

 

https://postandparcel.info/118751/news/e-commerce/rico-back-buys-more-than-500000-in-royal-mail-shares/

 

looking at the chart it did a double-bottom at £1.25 recently and looks to be turning a corner, it even ended Friday UP 8.5% to £1.76!

 

On 15/05/2020 at 09:46, Harley said:

Why thank you!  I like to stay current!  Methinks the gin like credit phase is now over!

So you moved from Heathrow area (I know quite well) to the Cotswolds?  Top stuff.  You got a cunning plan too or just like Japanese tourists?!

 

 

@Harley HA- the cunning plan is to remove the fish-pond its so deep down i should be able to convert this ponds cavity depth into a bunker!

 

also just finishing the decorating in the spare room, ready to let it out as a Holiday let, to ...Japanese tourists - how did ya guess?!

 

however ONLY certain types are ALLOWED to stay, namely... must be female ...criteria is they MUST be FOXY!

 

They MUST look similar to the pic below, i bet if this fox turned up at @stokiescum gaff he'd be beside himself!

 

 

 

 

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

@Democorruptcy Yeah I'm fully loaded now with RMG as well, still not to bad as an average price of around £1.90

 

Reason i bought more i saw Rico Back buy 1/2 million £ worth of shares back in February , even though hes a multimillionaire ...his purchase £537,676.80  is hardly chump-change?!

 

https://postandparcel.info/118751/news/e-commerce/rico-back-buys-more-than-500000-in-royal-mail-shares/

 

looking at the chart it did a double-bottom at £1.25 recently and looks to be turning a corner, it even ended Friday UP 8.5% to £1.76!

 

 

 

@Harley HA- the cunning plan is to remove the fish-pond its so deep down i should be able to convert this ponds cavity depth into a bunker!

 

also just finishing the decorating in the spare room, ready to let it out as a Holiday let, to ...Japanese tourists - how did ya guess?!

 

however ONLY certain types are ALLOWED to stay, namely... must be female ...criteria is they MUST be FOXY!

 

They MUST look similar to the pic below, i bet if this fox turned up at @stokiescum gaff he'd be beside himself!

 

 

 

 

She's about 14! (And far too skinny).

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

@Democorruptcy Yeah I'm fully loaded now with RMG as well, still not to bad as an average price of around £1.90

When I said I wish I had cash instead of some shares I was more thinking of the unmentionable and DTY (I deserve my punishment for being so morbid with that one!). I was in profit on RMG as my holding was only bought this year, best price at 1.37. I sold yesterday. 

[DurhamBorn]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

If our UB figures are anything like teh USA/Oz then I can see why.Holy smoly........

My reflation cycle was based on things being around half as bad as they likely are.Boris isnt saying that and hoping.He will of already been told by the BOE they intend to monetize £500 billion+,but its the last time they will/can,and that if he uses it for consumption only there is no coming back.The Fed is pretty much saying the same thing.They are going to monetize $10 trillion,but the US needs to use the chance to invest etc.

In the UK now welfare and state consumption (wages/pensions) is about double what the country can afford.The only answers are to reflate hugely and try to hold down spending on the rest.

The prices of some reflation areas are going to end up in bubbles later in the cycle.I fully expect one of my silver miners to 50x in price and even some big companies to 5x.The cycle is in play.People close to or in retirement in 60 to 80 bond allocations are going to get destroyed.

 

[Red Debt Redemption]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I fully expect one of my silver miners to 50x in price

Got any names on ones to watch? I quite like the idea of miners rather than physical for silver with the size of storage space needed compared to gold.

[Loki]

36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My reflation cycle was based on things being around half as bad as they likely are

Bloody hell

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Got any names on ones to watch? I quite like the idea of miners rather than physical for silver with the size of storage space needed compared to gold.

Any of the smaller ones from the list SP put up a page back.In silver miners i own several and expect some might not make it.I dont own any of the bigger ones.In Endeavour Silver for instance they have low reserve life,highish costs etc so market has the rubber band pulled right back and they keep diluting shareholders by issuing shares.However they also have prospects like Aida in Chile that could hold massive amounts of silver.If we get in a silver bull and then they strike a 2 billion silver resource at Aida they could 10x or in a .com style bubble 50x .They could also keep diluting and end up worthless.

You want a good spread and the truth is you hoping that one of more do a 10x.Its not an area for anyone who isnt prepared to lose their capital.

[jamtomorrow]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My reflation cycle was based on things being around half as bad as they likely are.Boris isnt saying that and hoping.He will of already been told by the BOE they intend to monetize £500 billion+,but its the last time they will/can,and that if he uses it for consumption only there is no coming back.The Fed is pretty much saying the same thing.They are going to monetize $10 trillion,but the US needs to use the chance to invest etc.

In the UK now welfare and state consumption (wages/pensions) is about double what the country can afford.The only answers are to reflate hugely and try to hold down spending on the rest.

The prices of some reflation areas are going to end up in bubbles later in the cycle.I fully expect one of my silver miners to 50x in price and even some big companies to 5x.The cycle is in play.People close to or in retirement in 60 to 80 bond allocations are going to get destroyed.

 

Saw this float by: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/goldman-warns-central-bank-qe-not-enough-for-avalanche-of-bonds-1.1436941

(Or if you want the ZH phew-what-a-scorcher version: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-spots-huge-problem-fed)

DB, how does this jive with your roadmap? Are you expecting the fed to "find a way" to monetize the free float mentioned in the article(s)? Hunter's "second shoe" dropping come autumn might be the excuse?

[Dave Bloke]

4 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

She's about 14! (And far too skinny).

And a boy!