Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

DurhamBorn
32 minutes ago, JMD said:

Wow that looks real value for money (inside needs makeover though, so could probably get it for cheaper price), and near Robin Hood's bay eh?, so perhaps a real steal!

I guess that freehold flat is a 'flying' freehold, but what problems would that present practically speaking? I tend to think the pros/cons between leasehold/freehold is finely balanced. Of course happy to be educated if you have some horror stories? I think up north they tend to have more freehold flats and more leasehold houses than we do down south, go figure? 

I think id probably lean to leasehold for a flat as long as the service charge wasnt too much and the uplifts.Bang another 125 on the lease and good to go.Im not 100% sure on flying freeholds and would have to get an understanding before i decided if to avoid or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
41 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

From my understanding flying freehold has issues in terms of mortgage availability and maybe also for building insurance. Of course, a flat in a multi storey building is either this type or leasehold. Both have their issues. I would much prefer to have a simple freehold property. Maybe a little 2 bed terrace but of course the asking price goes up. Of course if silver goes up to $300+, durhamborn would probably be able to buy the entire Bridlington seafront including the beach.

These days those products are readily available for freehold flats, just slightly more expensive. Having said that, full ownership is always worth the premium, so personally, if I were operating as a business i'd only buy the entire building of say 3/4 flats. These types of property come up for sale usually requiring a full refurb, but if you also reconfigure them (e.g. make 1 bed into a 2 bed, older properties frequently waste space/bad design; with pp consent of course), you also benefit from a uplift in value and rents. And property up north does look good value. Anyway just my pennies worth.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No because for everything the Fed prints assets that other people own go up in price,

not true, the assets they buy go up in value....

this yield curve is a red herring now cos the shitty bonds are not being bought, hence the FED and other CBs need to buy the ponzi crap and that is why their balance sheets are going up!!!

Bernanke lied!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Systematic collapse is baked in, the don't give a shit about the poor.....

 

imageproxy.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Harley well done it's just dawned on you that the week after the FED said THEY WOULD BUY EVERYTHING the markets started to recover!!! xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BadAlchemy

Does anyone know what happened to Telefonica today? They've dropped 9%. I wondered if perhaps they've also cut their dividend but can't find any news on that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@BadAlchemy the russell 2000 futures were limit up before they'd even opened yesterday 6% up!!!

the markets are edgy/bonkers/drunk on cash, this is the new normal 9% is nowt.....

Right I'll try cold turkey again, wish me luck!! xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
16 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

not true, the assets they buy go up in value....

this yield curve is a red herring now cos the shitty bonds are not being bought, hence the FED and other CBs need to buy the ponzi crap and that is why their balance sheets are going up!!!

Bernanke lied!!!

Thats how the system works,they pump in the liquidity and that then leaks into the economy.Its always been so.Their balance sheets have only just started,Fed might do $15 trillion yet O.o

Who cares though, we have made 30%+ in a few days on our silver miners on this thread,as soon as they stamped on the long end of the curve silver was good to go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No because for everything the Fed prints assets that other people own go up in price,with a lag.I dont agree or like the system,but it is what it is.My unborn grandchildren wont say im really pleased  you hated that system grandfather and didnt take part in it,we like living in this rented hellhole.My job is to protect my family in every way i can.

The CBs are simply doing their job within the system we have.Its hyberbole that they only care about the rich.They dont actually give a toss about them.They actually care more about the poor because if we get systemic collapse its not the elite that suffer the most.Most of our problems are governments over spending on welfare,the CBs aided that by printing, but they only really did so during collapse events. In a way they were stuck. If you read the comments though, its obvious they are telling governments you are going to get one chance to invest here,dont come back with the bowl later because we will be fighting inflation.We will flatten the curve so you can borrow very cheaply,but its the last time we can on this scale.

Thanks DB, I didn't think the OCD post sounded right, and to be clear I was only 'linking' you to OCD's post because he was (inaccurately) paraphrasing you there. Anyway, sorry to get you to repeat yourself for the umpteenth time (probably why you didn't bother responding/correcting OCD in the first place). 

But could you answer a question for me? Am I right in thinking that our government borrowing would be at say approx. 1% fixed for 25+ years (UK borrowing historically tends to be very long dated compared to other governments).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Who cares though, we have made 30%+ in a few days on our silver miners on this thread,as soon as they stamped on the long end of the curve silver was good to go

yes respect very good call!! absolutely nothing to do with the 'long end of the curve' though :P...... @JMD is confused though, he needs educating and he doesn't want to listen to lunatics like me xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Lot of second home owners/landlords are 55+ according to govt.AS DB says,just wait till they're pensions start imploding.

I'd also question how many genuinely secure public sector jobs there are.Nurses,Ambulance staff,Dr's,teachers….lot of councils will get thinned out if @spygirl is right about balanced budgets,lot of back office will be gone.

Landlordism only works when you either get nice tenants that pay on time or less desirable tentants who pay you a 15% yield when they get round to it.Anything in the middle is a lot harder work than the propaganda on 118 would have you believe.

I've seen no end of these idiot local councillors who haven't got a scooby going around telling visitors to do one.Oblivious to the fact that they subsisdise their lifestyle.

Wales is in for a hard landing,jsut not as hard as Scotland.

Oh the irony! The reason why the over 55's have piled into property is partly because annuities have been on the floor for over a decade.

Balanced budgets? Good luck with that one. xD

You must have missed this thread itself has turned into a sub forum of 118?

The councillors in Wales are doing a grand job keeping potential house buyers out but the fines aren't high enough. I'd prefer snipers on rooftops at the border, when the housing market here re-opens. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Systematic collapse is baked in, the don't give a shit about the poor.....

 

imageproxy.jpeg

But that cartoon doesn't make sense even on its own terms... i.e. would you OCD feel relaxed laying beside that pool?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

would you OCD feel relaxed laying beside that pool?

No but I do feel relaxed laying beside MY pool cos it's in the middle of effing nowhere away from all the lunatics, both rich and poor :D

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

You must have missed this thread itself has turned into a sub forum of 118?

Good point I don't belong here......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Idiocrat
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats how the system works,they pump in the liquidity and that then leaks into the economy.Its always been so.Their balance sheets have only just started,Fed might do $15 trillion yet O.o

Who cares though, we have made 30%+ in a few days on our silver miners on this thread,as soon as they stamped on the long end of the curve silver was good to go.

I'd just like to sincerely thank you for that DB. I did invest in some of those on the list you put up. Cheers!:Beer:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
48 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

No but I do feel relaxed laying beside MY pool cos it's in the middle of effing nowhere away from all the lunatics, both rich and poor :D

Good point I don't belong here......

Of course you belong here,where else do we all belong xD,what do you see in silver,$23+ might be in range i reckon.Iv always hated silver miners even when they deliver,your never far away from the temptation to sell when they run hard.The crack cocaine of investing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Of course you belong here,where else do we all belong xD,what do you see in silver,$23+ might be in range i reckon.Iv always hated silver miners even when they deliver,your never far away from the temptation to sell when they run hard.The crack cocaine of investing.

I know what you mean. They’re hugely volatile (on another level to junior gold miners).

I note Great Panther’s being anything but great as usual :) If we do get 23 dollar silver then even that dog might join the party...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, BearyBear said:

I'm kind of the same, -20% would be back to 2010 nominal prices in the areas I like so I'll be buying. The only problem I see is the availability of 5/10 year fixes! :( 

They’ll come roaring back, they’ll do anything to prop up the housing market, won’t work of course in the short term.

EDIT: just noticed 15 year fix with YBS (75% LTV) has just dropped this week from 2.76% to 2.45%. Product fee of £495 remains the same.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alifelessbinary

For those people considering buying a house, experience has shown that property prices on the way down tend to be inelastic. The furlough scheme is clouding the real unemployment rate at the moment, although the fallout will lead to forced sellers. In a falling market people would rather wait to achieve their bottom range rather than complete a deal. It’s not until higher numbers of forced  forced sellers (divorce, moving, unemployment) enter the market that people realise that the maximum ‘house prices only go up’.

It will likely be 12-18 months until downward pressure on housing prices really starts to show, although the severity of some of the data might make this get messy sooner.

As mentioned by many people on here successive government are obsessed with propping up house price, but although high up on the agenda they will be busy elsewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20-30% in London and the SE, but you just don’t know what crazy scheme will be invented to disrupt the market. 

For those looking to buy now is the time to understand the local market and look for distressed sales. Probate will also be interesting (Sadly most the good stuff requires being friendly with agents, but a big cash deposit will probably allow you to treat them with disdain if the shtf). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn
34 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

For those people considering buying a house, experience has shown that property prices on the way down tend to be inelastic. The furlough scheme is clouding the real unemployment rate at the moment, although the fallout will lead to forced sellers. In a falling market people would rather wait to achieve their bottom range rather than complete a deal. It’s not until higher numbers of forced  forced sellers (divorce, moving, unemployment) enter the market that people realise that the maximum ‘house prices only go up’.

It will likely be 12-18 months until downward pressure on housing prices really starts to show, although the severity of some of the data might make this get messy sooner.

As mentioned by many people on here successive government are obsessed with propping up house price, but although high up on the agenda they will be busy elsewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20-30% in London and the SE, but you just don’t know what crazy scheme will be invented to disrupt the market. 

For those looking to buy now is the time to understand the local market and look for distressed sales. Probate will also be interesting (Sadly most the good stuff requires being friendly with agents, but a big cash deposit will probably allow you to treat them with disdain if the shtf). 

South might go down 60% or more inflation adjusted over the cycle.I think the cycle will play out by deleting a lot of equity,then holding steady while inflation and rates increase.The market will do two things before the next cycle ends.First it will destroy the idea of equity release because rates will be too high to justify it.2nd bonds will lose value over the cycle after another year or so and that will see pension pots close to and in drawdown go down to nothing over the decade.In a 60% and 80% bond weighting pension i expect -3% a year returns + 2% fees + draw down amounts say 5%,so down and out over 9ish years.Thats at best.

Very few portfolios these days lean to inflation because nobody expects it.Highly likely they still wont until late in the cycle when they push things parabolic.

The government has created a massive problem since the Blair/Brown government.Benefits and government salaries have swamped the economy.The BOE will monetize,but they only have an 18 month window before the pressure of inflation starts to show,then they will have to release the curve and step back.Massive investment is coming,but not in private housing.The cycles have ended and i dont see southern house prices being back to where they were in anyone lifetime alive now inflation adjusted.

HTB last year anyone?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Alifelessbinary said:

For those looking to buy now is the time to understand the local market and look for distressed sales. Probate will also be interesting (Sadly most the good stuff requires being friendly with agents, but a big cash deposit will probably allow you to treat them with disdain if the shtf). 

I know the local market pretty well but have no clue how to look for distressed sellers - any tips/ideas?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DurhamBorn

Looking at silver on the long term roadmap i think the cycle high could be when around 1000oz buys the median house if we see the liquidity injection carry on.So if house prices stayed the same silver should 17 x in price from here.

If we take a minimum 25% off house prices then silver would need to 12x in price,so we should be looking at around $214 oz,i think that is a very good target for the cycle,likely it will go over,but perhaps a target to at least hold some silver miners to.

Cross market work to watch that could signal the road map turns earlier could be a Dow/gold ratio of 1.5,Positive real interest rates over a sustained period,gold/silver ratio under 20.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agent ZigZag

It’s pleasing to read the value of assets being discussed not in sterling terms but in how many gold or silver ounces.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

For those people considering buying a house, experience has shown that property prices on the way down tend to be inelastic. The furlough scheme is clouding the real unemployment rate at the moment, although the fallout will lead to forced sellers. In a falling market people would rather wait to achieve their bottom range rather than complete a deal. It’s not until higher numbers of forced  forced sellers (divorce, moving, unemployment) enter the market that people realise that the maximum ‘house prices only go up’.

It will likely be 12-18 months until downward pressure on housing prices really starts to show, although the severity of some of the data might make this get messy sooner.

As mentioned by many people on here successive government are obsessed with propping up house price, but although high up on the agenda they will be busy elsewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20-30% in London and the SE, but you just don’t know what crazy scheme will be invented to disrupt the market. 

For those looking to buy now is the time to understand the local market and look for distressed sales. Probate will also be interesting (Sadly most the good stuff requires being friendly with agents, but a big cash deposit will probably allow you to treat them with disdain if the shtf). 

All I would add is that the unemployment rate has taken just 3 months to rise to levels which took 18 months during the GFC (excluding furloughed), this is anything but gradual, so I’d expect things to liven up after the first 3 month mortgage holidays expire in June and July.

https://www.centreforcities.org/blog/where-has-seen-the-biggest-increase-in-unemployment-since-lockdown-began/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...