Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, Castlevania said:

How does working in a mine lead to HIV?

The oldest profession, prozzies, but the BBC probably can't report that.

Africans love using prozzies and so do NGO aid workers, but they like children as well which is why they work for NGOs.

[Castlevania]

4 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

The oldest profession, prozzies, but the BBC probably can't report that.

Africans love using prozzies and so do NGO aid workers, but they like children as well which is why they work for NGOs.

Yes, but the way the article is written suggests that you catch HIV underground as opposed to in the village/camp nearby.

[leonardratso]

maybe SA miners like minors and undergound bumming.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza 13.20 in the vid "injected into the veins of the economy"  has she been reading this thread 

I watched that video wondered that . it was like the debatess we've been having on here regarding so many things eg deflationistas/staglfation,CB OMO's,where the QE neds to go/where it actually goes etc etc,............there was loads in there that pretty much chimes with this thread but throws in a lot of detail.

I think what DDM does well is fill in the gaps in terms of the subtle nuances perticualrly with how the Fed uses models and how it'll be thinking ref negative rates ,QE, the problems it'll face on a technical level etc.

DDM has about as mainstream a following as you get whilst still being a little bit 'Alt' but in genereal,it's weird watching the themes discussed on thsi thread get a much wider audience.She's also a PM fan...

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I recommend watching it, I've referenced Art Berman on here before when folks have asked me for a primer on oil/oil markets. I've followed him for sbout 4 years and can attest he has a verifiable track record of being mostly right. Not always (and he's being particularly miserable about the future post virus) but his comparitive inventory curve works. Short answer, and I say this to pique folks interest enough to watch it, is that WTI is still 15-20 dollars undervalued at current inventory levels. Remember I said there was no glut going onto this, well inventories have not actually gone up that much (recall all the tank top nonsense 2 months ago). 

CP,I've jsut been looking at WTI and it looks firmly back above $30.....dropped below it for two months,now looks headed north for my mind..Like an inverted Bell curve if you will.

How are we looking supply wise at the minute?

I'm looking at how much US shale got destroyed,then looking at the Fed's $3 trillion and I'm thinking things are looking up for the black suttf....

 

7 hours ago, BearyBear said:

"Buy the dip" mantra in practice...

 

That's ana amzing chart.Saw an American Airlines the otehr day that looked very similar.

To be fair,they've lsot less than msot pension funds.

 

 

[JMD]

22 hours ago, Harley said:

Justetf.com also details any securities lending for specific ETFs.

Thanks again Harley, do you know if it's just ETFs that do security lending, or do investment funds/trusts also do same thing?

[Castlevania]

Just now, JMD said:

Thanks again Harley, do you know if it's just ETFs that do security lending, or do investment funds/trusts also do same thing?

Most do. You get additional yield.

[BearyBear]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

That's ana amzing chart.Saw an American Airlines the otehr day that looked very similar.

To be fair,they've lsot less than msot pension funds.

The way they trade via Robinhood is shocking to me, most of them are destined to a financial disaster. Anyways, as soon as I start seeing YT videos in recommended section titled: "How I've lost my house on Robinhood" I am going full in!

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thats pretty much all middle class people i know, all property leveraged up with more and more debt over the last 20 years, some interest only and still believe in the magic money tree.

Runs along my experience of people viewing hosuing equity as money in the bank

3 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Painful day incoming tomorrow?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-52791780

In a rare bout of good timing last week I sold all but our bottom ladder in HMY,top 25% GFI as well,more than happy to pick them back up fi the orice drops.COuld be a decent buying opportuntiy here.

Interesting that it's an Anglogold mine that they're jsut about to sell and exit SA long term......

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

People up here arent happy.He was seen by several people in Barnard Castle and also wandering around in Houghall Woods with his wife (thats in Durham itself).Boris is wasting all his political capital.I dont want Cummings to go because he will help fuel money for the north and also help deal with the civil service,but his choices and lies and Boris backing him will do the Tories a lot of damage.It might even cost them seats they won up here.

As we're doign politics I'd venture that thsoe seats were gone the day Boris got in.Farage stood his people down and handed Boris the majority.CUmmings genius was in heading off Farage.

A lot of thiose voters weren't natural Troies I  an analysed alot of those swing seats, it showed that in mnay it wasn't a rise in the Tory vote that won it,but Labour staying home in droves.For my sins,I have some form on political gambling and never felt it was a big Boris win but rather a Farage surrender of hardline Brexit voters(of which I'm one).

UK politics is in flux.We know from hsitory that debt deflations create huge political changes eg the rise of Hitler/the establishment of Labour as the second party of British politics.

Cummings really needed a better muse than Boris.

Intersting that from what you say,CUmmings made some schoolboy errors.

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

The way they trade via Robinhood is shocking to me, most of them are destined to a financial disaster. Anyways, as soon as I start seeing YT videos in recommended section titled: "How I've lost my house on Robinhood" I am going full in!

I only found it the other day but it made such an impression I favourited it.Need to study more but it could be a really good indicator,have you seen nay other good leads?

MSFT interesting

[BearyBear]

Speaking of Youtube, this is one of the best video about improving your trading edge that I know... have actually attended this webinar over 6 years ago, time flies!

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

PAGING: @Harley @DurhamBorn @Cattle Prod @sancho panza ...AND anyone I've forgotten!

 

Came across this VERY INTERESTING video about "Living Off Grid" and wanted to share with YOU guys, its by a chap that moved from London to woodland in Wales, built his own house for CHEAP...blimey hes even got his own hydroelectric!

 

Check it OUT...You'll LOVE It!

[MvR]

17 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I only found it the other day but it made such an impression I favourited it.Need to study more but it could be a really good indicator,have you seen nay other good leads?

MSFT interesting

What's the link to find these charts, SP?

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

My biggest take from that article is "Most of those who tested positive were not showing any symptoms."

My gut feeling is that the response to CV has been massively out of proportion. There will be unrest in countries with millions of newly jobless people. Imagine how bad that unrest will be if it turns out that some of the world's governments trashed their economies for naught.

When it dawns on people how many have died needlessly(think shuffling covid positive patients back to care homes where staff have no training or PPE),how many cancer patients have forgone diagnosis/treatment opportunities,how few staff treating vulnerable patients weren't tested for covid and on and on.

I've worked in the NHS for a few years A&E admittedly,but I've never seen the hopsitals so quiet.

And then we begin reading the analysis of the code Neil Ferguson used to create the panic and it really starts to create a hollow ringing in your ears.Was it really all worth it? As the coder who reviewed the Imperial model says

'the average of wrong is wrong'.

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The finger pointing for the lockdown debacle has already begun. 

 

Danish PM has been caught lying that the countries public health agency backed lockdown when they actually OPPOSED it. 
 

Swedish all cause mortality is 2nd lowest in last five years. 
 

Fatality rate is going to be same as flu and we’ve smashed the world economy over a model from a Bill Gates employee with a track record of bullshit and wild inaccuracy. 
 

Off topic, so apologies, but the whole debacle has me beyond pissed off.

 

In a year ,when the dust has settled,there will be a lot of very unhappy people.Not just with Professor Magoo and bumbling Bojo but also the MSM/Labour and the way they stood by and let it all happen.

Just my views.

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, MvR said:

What's the link to find these charts?

https://robintrack.net/leaderboard

let us know if you find anyhting of interest M.

[BearyBear]

47 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I only found it the other day but it made such an impression I favourited it.Need to study more but it could be a really good indicator,have you seen nay other good leads?

MSFT interesting

Yep, M$ looks interesting indeed! The problem with these big names is that it's almost impossible to buy them cheap.

A good lead would be any investment forum, I remember even this place turned into whinge mode when the stock market has bottomed out back in March...

[Hardhat]

41 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

I remember even this place turned into whinge mode when the stock market has bottomed out back in March...

My only whinge was not having more capital to deploy. Would have liked more cheap stocks.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Runs along my experience of people viewing hosuing equity as money in the bank

In a rare bout of good timing last week I sold all but our bottom ladder in HMY,top 25% GFI as well,more than happy to pick them back up fi the orice drops.COuld be a decent buying opportuntiy here.

Interesting that it's an Anglogold mine that they're jsut about to sell and exit SA long term......

As we're doign politics I'd venture that thsoe seats were gone the day Boris got in.Farage stood his people down and handed Boris the majority.CUmmings genius was in heading off Farage.

A lot of thiose voters weren't natural Troies I  an analysed alot of those swing seats, it showed that in mnay it wasn't a rise in the Tory vote that won it,but Labour staying home in droves.For my sins,I have some form on political gambling and never felt it was a big Boris win but rather a Farage surrender of hardline Brexit voters(of which I'm one).

UK politics is in flux.We know from hsitory that debt deflations create huge political changes eg the rise of Hitler/the establishment of Labour as the second party of British politics.

Cummings really needed a better muse than Boris.

Intersting that from what you say,CUmmings made some schoolboy errors.

I think Cummings may yet get that 'better muse' you speak of... You also mention your previous political gambling - well how about taking a punt on Cummings joining the 'Brexit party', or whatever that parties next incarnation is?                                                                                                  I don't mean this to be political as it's not the place - rather this is how I think the political landscape might change - giving hope perhaps that the UK won't necessarily be forced into taking far left/right stance - a non radical politics, that British people have aversion to in any case. Anyway I think it's interesting that the only political leader to speak out against the massive government over reaction to the C(hina)V(iris) is Farage. Although I am very critical of all main party leaderships, I am not a total cynic and was for example impressed by the cross political spectrum support for the Brexit party. That support was unfortunately/tragically not tested. Anyway my thinking is that a 'renamed' Brexit party, (along with new 'populist' policies) would do very well at next election. And how about a new successor to Farage, perhaps someone like the elected Brexit party MEP Clair Fox, a female, working class, northern, ex-trotskyisk(like Hitchens, so not automatically a scary concept!)... I think if things turn as economically crazy as expected such a breath of fresh political thinking would do very well at the polls.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Most do. You get additional yield.

Oh that is disappointing to hear!!, because I had made the incorrect assumption that ETFs were 'distnctly' unsafe in regard to lending out securities, but if funds/ITs do the same thing (not all, but most of them) then I will have to rethink how to evaluate/compare risk. I suppose the securities 'borrowed', in return for those 'lent out', for say any given index tracker or ETF would be from its same index universe - although even if this were true, not sure how useful this would be in limiting/or at least understanding what type(quality) of stocks could be temporarily swopped and held?

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

When it dawns on people how many have died needlessly(think shuffling covid positive patients back to care homes where staff have no training or PPE),how many cancer patients have forgone diagnosis/treatment opportunities,how few staff treating vulnerable patients weren't tested for covid and on and

All so that Boris could feed his ego by having his Churchillian moment and the political classes could hide their economical incompetence by `sweeping it under the carpet` of coronavirus...but just as the wartime government (and Churchill) had their `moment of glory` it was very short lived in the following election...in this instance, let's hope history repeats itself.

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

then we begin reading the analysis of the code Neil Ferguson used to create the panic and it really starts to create a hollow ringing in your ears.Was it really all worth it? As the coder who reviewed the Imperial model says

'the average of wrong is wrong'

I have known many academics, with the majority believing that intelligence equates to being clever...unfortunately you can only learn the latter.

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Oh that is disappointing to hear!!, because I had made the incorrect assumption that ETFs were 'distnctly' unsafe in regard to lending out securities, but if funds/ITs do the same thing (not all, but most of them) then I will have to rethink how to evaluate/compare risk. I suppose the securities 'borrowed', in return for those 'lent out', for say any given index tracker or ETF would be from its same index universe - although even if this were true, not sure how useful this would be in limiting/or at least understanding what type(quality) of stocks could be temporarily swopped and held?

What you have to remember is that generally the lower the OCF the more likely securities are lent out to do so...the difference is that unlike you having control by paying the higher OCF, when an ETF makes from lending you only get a small percentage of the benefits but take all the risk...`there is no such thing as a free lunch` as they say!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

....you only get a small percentage of the benefits but take all the risk....

And so was it always so!  I can't recommend any provider but I believe at least one does not lend out securities, at least apparently and on the funds I looked at.

[MvR]

I know this is mostly an investing rather than trading thread, but here's a useful indicator to help identify better entries.. I know I have mentioned it occasionally before, but W%R, with a 45 day period ( not the default 13 or 14), is great for signalling swing highs and lows by looking for price/oscillator divergencies.

I was marking the last few week's signals on the hourly for Gold ( IG charts, based on one of the smaller futures contracts I think.), and was surprised myself how accurate they were, so I thought I'd share it with you guys.

Strong signals are in white, and weak signals in grey. It's not perfect, and doesn't catch all the tops and bottoms, but those it does identify are good 80% of the time at least.  This could be improved further when used alongside other TA.

The rules are simple  :-

1. A strong topping signal occurs when price puts in a higher high then turns down for 1 period, whilst W%R(45) puts in a lower high.

2. A weak topping single is when price puts in second high the same level as the previous peak, whilst W%R puts in a significantly lower high.

3. A strong bottoming signal occurs when price puts in a lower low then turns up for 1 period, whilst W%R(45) puts in a higher low.

4. A weak bottoming single is when price puts in second low the same level as the previous low, whilst W%R puts in a significantly higher low.

The W%R highs and lows must be in the overbought/oversold zones of the oscillator ( above -20 or below -80 ) for the signal to be valid.

It works great for swing trading on the hourly, giving signals every few days, or on the 15m for day-trading, or on the daily ( or rarely, weekly ) for longer term signals.  I go mostly with the hourly, and maybe zoom in to the 15m to fine tune an entry.

A close-up of recent signals.

edit : fixed glaring error in the rules

[MrXxxx]

On 23/05/2020 at 08:04, CVG said:

Have to be careful here because derisking as you approach retirement is sensible to ensure that your can crystalise the gains you have hopefully made with high risk equity investments throughout your work life. No one would have wanted to have their pension 100% FTSE 100 invested at the beginning of March with an April retirement due!

So cash is "safe" for a year or two as are short term bonds. Tapering is absolutely right. Just select the right assets!

This got me thinking again; the true value of this thread/website, so lets consider a scenario and pose two questions. Person in DC scheme and can take early retirement now (or next 2-3 years) or stay invested in scheme,

In short-term are they better:

1. Moving accumulated funds from shares into a cash part of scheme now, crystallizing/retiring when shares crash, and then buying in?

2. As for 1. above but just move to a diversified share option in scheme when shares crash and don't officially retire?

3. Staying invested in a diversified share only option over next cycle until equities recover?

4. As for 3. but share/bond mix.

 

I can see advantages/disadvantages in all as follows:

1/2. No management costs whilst in scheme (could equate to 0.,-1.5% so important in current/future low returns environment), preserving already accumulated gains, but time risk of being out of market.

3. No costs in scheme, no timing the market worries, no picking the winners worries due to diversity, but could be waiting some time for equities to recover.

4. As for 3. above but bonds/gilts MAY give some capital preservation.

 

Obviously all of the above depends on timings I.e when deflation ends/inflation begins, shares crash/recover...what are people's current thoughts on this regarding timescales?