Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Question...how are Chards and the like for buying large amounts of coin? Say £30 grand hypothetically ?

Phone them and go over to Blackpool,they will show you into the back  ,plus you can buy a kiss me quick hat at the same time and mingle with a few hen parties.

[Bricormortis]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very good actually.We are in a great position for hydrogen etc.Nissan staying here is a good indicator.UK is small and although planning etc and faffing about wastes a lot energy etc should get going fine.The key is all these countries are moving from the consumer consuming with the debt to industry consuming.Its subtle,but makes a massive difference.We could/should be looking at a cycle where commods outpace everything else,and the companies leveraged to commods do even better.

I had to laugh when I heard this last night, after all the threats to leave not only are they staying but they are considering producing Renaults as well at Sunderland. Ohh la la. 

[Bricormortis]

37 minutes ago, AWW said:

Gold or silver? I've used Atkinsons for reasonably large orders of gold coins before (although your hypothetical £30k will only get you two tubes of gold Brits at the moment!).

I don't see why silver would be a problem - but £30k is three monster boxes, or 40-odd kg of the stuff - make sure you don't put your back out ;-)

My silver is with BV , I have a small amount of gold, but I have to consider my options going forward as regards purchasing more physical probably gold, I have always wondered what my chances would be of selling, I would rather not have to be ebay ing the stuff. So I wondered if  the dealers can be a bit sniffy about buying large from Joe Public.

[AWW]

33 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

My silver is with BV , I have a small amount of gold, but I have to consider my options going forward as regards purchasing more physical probably gold, I have always wondered what my chances would be of selling, I would rather not have to be ebay ing the stuff. So I wondered if  the dealers can be a bit sniffy about buying large from Joe Public.

Quickest way to find out would be to phone a dealer and ask them for a bid on the 30k of metal you don't yet (or perhaps do) own.

[BearyBear]

As seen on ToS... WTF???

 For loans of up to 200% of the valuation of the property

 

3.24% fixed until 31 August 2025

Standard Variable Rate (SVR) / Loyalty SVR

http://www.whistletree.co.uk/mortgages/switching-your-mortgage-to-a-new-rate 

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

As seen on ToS... WTF???

 For loans of up to 200% of the valuation of the property

3.24% fixed until 31 August 2025

Standard Variable Rate (SVR) / Loyalty SVR

http://www.whistletree.co.uk/mortgages/switching-your-mortgage-to-a-new-rate 

That's an advertising puff piece to get attention, and links etc.

It says 'up to 200%', doesn't mean anybody gets it.

[Loki]

5 hours ago, Craig said:

Absolutely. It's a holiday from the current low rates for the banks!

 

6 hours ago, AWW said:

What many fail to realise is that payment holidays are actually a double benefit to the banks - they mean that the borrower ends up paying more interest, and by ensuring no forced selling, they support the value of the asset on which the loan is secured.

They're not doing this out of the goodness of their hearts.

I'd never thought of it like that.  I love this thread. Sometimes even extreme cynicism can't beat wisdom.

[BoSon]

35 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

That's an advertising puff piece to get attention, and links etc.

It says 'up to 200%', doesn't mean anybody gets it.

200% of a valuation that is 50% of the current mortgage loaned at a rate that is 3240% higher than BOE base rate.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 hours ago, AWW said:

We already have vast swathes of the population who are dependent upon near-zero interest rates to stay afloat. We are now in the process of creating a cohort of people who will end up being dependent on not having to pay their mortgage.

Work back from this...why are they doing this.

They're all bankrupt would be my answer.

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

As seen on ToS... WTF???

 For loans of up to 200% of the valuation of the property

 

3.24% fixed until 31 August 2025

Standard Variable Rate (SVR) / Loyalty SVR

http://www.whistletree.co.uk/mortgages/switching-your-mortgage-to-a-new-rate 

Fuck me that's expensive. HSBC do a 5 year fix for 1.49%

Fixed

HSBC via broker: Premier Acc Fixed till 30-09-25

Rate 1.46%For 64 months, then SVR for 19 years and 8 months. SVR = 3.54%

Set-up Fees

?

£1,516

Monthly Payment

?

£597For 64 months
Then £721 for 19 years and 8 months

[M S E Refugee]

3 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

My silver is with BV , I have a small amount of gold, but I have to consider my options going forward as regards purchasing more physical probably gold, I have always wondered what my chances would be of selling, I would rather not have to be ebay ing the stuff. So I wondered if  the dealers can be a bit sniffy about buying large from Joe Public.

Don't buy Silver Bullion in the UK unless you want to resell on eBay as that is the only place you will get a decent profit and a load of hassle.

A UK Bullion dealer will give you under spot for your Silver so after you have paid VAT and the Bullion dealers premium it will have to go a lot before you are in the money.

[sleepwello'nights]

4 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Question...how are Chards and the like for buying large amounts of coin? Say £30 grand hypothetically ?

Yay the silver Brittanias I ordered from Baird arrived today. The package was heavy enough for postie to mention, there weren't that many he had to struggle with it though

[Craig]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Here's an anecdotal. I bought some 20kg weight plates in Jan 2016 off the cheapest retailer on Amazon for £26.99. Nothing fancy, just spray painted iron. I need another pair now, and much to my shock the cheapest I can see is £79.99, with the vast majority of retailers sold out. This says two things:

- The price of iron has risen

- There is a run on home gym equipment right now. 

This made me think about inflation. People are currently re-learning how to be independent at the moment. Home gym, cutting your own hair, baking your own bread, grinding your own coffee. So instead of one set of gym equipment, one coffee machine, one hair clippers, one breadmaker, there is a sudden demand for x times the usual amount. This is, to me profoundly inflationary. Flipping it around, the just in time convenience culture of the last decade or two was part of the great disinflation. That is clearly over now.

I've just checked iron ore prices, little did I know I bought my current plates at multi year lows! If only I could trade that well. As you said, iron ore has risen substantially since then, almost 2.5x, and is currently rocketing. Liquidity and stimulus really does trump all else.

Yeah, it's the latter. Lots of gym members trying to source weights to keep pumping during lockdown. There's many examples of manky, rusty weights being sold on Gumtree etc for ludicrous prices. 

[Bobthebuilder]

33 minutes ago, Craig said:

Yeah, it's the latter. Lots of gym members trying to source weights to keep pumping during lockdown. There's many examples of manky, rusty weights being sold on Gumtree etc for ludicrous prices. 

Rush for assets and inflation as discussed here in action right there. Not saying go long on rusty weights, but you get my point.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Don't buy Silver Bullion in the UK unless you want to resell on eBay as that is the only place you will get a decent profit and a load of hassle.

A UK Bullion dealer will give you under spot for your Silver so after you have paid VAT and the Bullion dealers premium it will have to go a lot before you are in the money.

Eventually it will be $200 an ounce +. So buying now shouldn't be a concern.

[Lightscribe]

My PM ratio falls into 4 categories. ETFs for trading (alongside the stock market volatility). Miners for longer term for the highs. Physical silver collector series (like the queens beasts 10oz) which go for much more when out of production anyway for the collection aspect on top of spot price which I’ll sell on EBay. Then silver pre-1920 coins three, six, florins, shillings, half and full crowns for my daughter for whatever state the world is in when she grows up.

I don’t plan to sell anything to dealers for below spot. If PMs shoot to the moon I doubt the dealers would agree to buy physical at crazy highs.

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

Eventually it will be $200 an ounce +. So buying now shouldn't be a concern.

That's as maybe but buying coins way over their intrinsic value doesn't look to be a good investment.

VAT puts me off buying Silver in the UK it makes it a crap investment.

If you were to buy 500x1oz Silver Britannias off Chard it would cost you £10850+£48.20 shipping and if you were to sell them back to Chard they would give you £7225 so your investment would have to rise just over 50% to break even.

[Bobthebuilder]

Just got off the phone to a mate who runs a ltd company down here in London, tells me guys with shit companys doing £500 a week have all got the £50k loans and i kid you not,, are looking at buying BTLs in Durham. I laughed, but you couldnt make it up.

[Lightscribe]

16 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Just got off the phone to a mate who runs a ltd company down here in London, tells me guys with shit companys doing £500 a week have all got the £50k loans and i kid you not,, are looking at buying BTLs in Durham. I laughed, but you couldnt make it up.

Maybe some members of the BTL forums have been lurking on here and heard us discussing how cheap Durham is with DB’s supermarket reduced bargains.

I fear they’ll be many £50k loans that will be burning holes in lots irresponsible pockets.

“Ear mate, that £50k loan bruv, theres ouses up norf that are £25k bruv, buy two innit! Bricks and mortar only go up bruv. Licence to print money son!!“

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

My PM ratio falls into 4 categories. ETFs for trading (alongside the stock market volatility). Miners for longer term for the highs. Physical silver collector series (like the queens beasts 10oz) which go for much more when out of production anyway for the collection aspect on top of spot price which I’ll sell on EBay. Then silver pre-1920 coins three, six, florins, shillings, half and full crowns for my daughter for whatever state the world is in when she grows up.

I don’t plan to sell anything to dealers for below spot. If PMs shoot to the moon I doubt the dealers would agree to buy physical at crazy highs.

I love those Queens Beasts,my next lot of self employed furlough might find its way into a load

[Harley]

James Ferguson: the virus, the lockdown, and what comes next

https://moneyweek.com/economy/global-economy/601420/james-ferguson-the-virus-the-lockdown-and-what-comes-next

Eff me, I put this podcast on for some company and then nearly fell off me tractor!  Now that's one clever person.  Goes over the non-financial, financial, and investment implications of Covid.  

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

my next lot of self employed furlough

Made my Friday after a shitty week wor- erm visiting another part of the country. 

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

Maybe some members of the BTL forums have been lurking on here and heard us discussing how cheap Durham is with DB’s supermarket reduced bargains.

I fear they’ll be many £50k loans that will be burning holes in lots irresponsible pockets.

“Ear mate, that £50k loan bruv, theres ouses up norf that are £25k bruv, buy two innit! Bricks and mortar only go up bruv. Licence to print money son!!“

The locals here will unload to the idiots like they did last time,then mostly went back and took the boilers and copper out as they kept a spare key.

This £50k loan for Ltds is nuts.Disgusting actually.A factory worker could take half a lifetime to save £50k,yet a Ltd can have it for free then go under.

Government dont care though,its all about liquidity and getting money into the economy.

 

[Lightscribe]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I love those Queens Beasts,my next lot of self employed furlough might find its way into a load

Yes problem being is to convince my daughter to sell her ‘unicorn’ 10oz ones when silver reaches $200 an ounce. She’s quite adamant that she’s never selling. 

I quite like old crowns too. Like this one from 200 years ago. I find it fascinating the amount of hands it must have been through. Survived wars, recessions, depressions, pandemics, kind of ironic with what we’re facing now.

[Chewing Grass]

2 hours ago, Craig said:

Yeah, it's the latter. Lots of gym members trying to source weights to keep pumping during lockdown. There's many examples of manky, rusty weights being sold on Gumtree etc for ludicrous prices. 

My lad was after a heavy duty weight stand, couldn't find one good enough for home use so the steel fabricator at his works knocked him up an absolutely bitchin one and got it powder coated to boot.