Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

54 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

For me they're not meeting the offgrid requirement which is a prerequisite for my wanting to hold gold.

Sure my limited and widely spaced purchases could be tracked but I can say that I gave them away to family as presents who then sold them in pawnbrokers.  Prove me wrong.

The benefit of their being offgrid was brought home to only in the last few weeks because an elderly relative had to go into a nursing home and his wife mentioned how much she was having to write as monthly cheques to pay for it.  It was a lot and as they weren't wealthy their savings will soon be exhausted down to the limit they're allowed before the council steps in, about £20k IIRC.

They, or rather now she, will have gone from life savings of maybe £100k (might be a lot less - £50k maybe) down to £20k making everything saved over £20k worthless because if they hadn't bothered to save it then the council would have had to start paying earlier.

If however everything they had saved above £20k was in the form of offgrid PMs then they would still have had that full £100k (£50k whatever).

To me that suggests that the less you have in savings the more that you want them to be offgrid in the form of PMs; especially if you have episodic unemployment because then you get your benefits.  Plus a house as that doesn't form part of most means testing either for reasons best known to the government.

Wasn't there talk a few years ago about putting a charge peoples home, and reclaiming the fees after deceased estate was sold?  

But that's a powerful story you tell of why protecting your wealth from government interference is so important. Something I have been thinking about much more recently.

[Don Coglione]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

Wasn't there talk a few years ago about putting a charge peoples home, and reclaiming the fees after deceased estate was sold?  

But that's a powerful story you tell of why protecting your wealth from government interference is so important. Something I have been thinking about much more recently.

I think inheritances are toast as of now (with protection for the right people, of course).

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Over £10K pa per supplier in UK?  Same as cash transfers?  But have access to your bank account transactions anyway?  Recent big reduction in the reporting limit in Germany?

Buy via an Irish company. Ireland don’t have any such reporting rules.

[Frank Hovis]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

Wasn't there talk a few years ago about putting a charge peoples home, and reclaiming the fees after deceased estate was sold?  

But that's a powerful story you tell of why protecting your wealth from government interference is so important. Something I have been thinking about much more recently.

I thought that was Treason May's idea that got nowhere.

Certainly it's an area that is likely to change.

I thought that with my aunt and uncle; they were comfortable but never more than that and probably saved about £5k a year after they had paid off their house (total guess) but that could have gone on holidays, new car whatever.  As it is they have just lost it.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I think inheritances are toast as of now (with protection for the right people, of course).

I made damn sure i ended up with a nurse and got my daughter through uni as a nurse (plus bursary from NHS and zero student debts).If my dad needs care he will come and live with me and my partner will jack in work and look after him,my dad would replace her wage out of his pension and investment income easily.My daughter would do the same with me.If it looked like it might be long term we would probably move and buy a bigger house,just use mine and some of my dads to get it.As long as he has his food,drink and sport on a big tv and his bets put on he would be fine.

[Loki]

David Hunter is forecasting a drop in oil to $20 after a big run up, would you expect that to be reflected in the oilies, or are they stable enough after the big one in March to keep a stable price?

[TNS]

17 minutes ago, Loki said:

David Hunter is forecasting a drop in oil to $20 after a big run up, would you expect that to be reflected in the oilies, or are they stable enough after the big one in March to keep a stable price?

good question given I fancy loading up on more RDSB!

[PaulParanoia]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv made more since March than at any time since i started investing,much more.

Well done DB.  Greatly deserved after all the work you've put in.  I wasn't brave enough to go all in at the lows.  Only invested about 20% of my cash to date.  I'm hoping for another buying opportunity when the Q2 GDP figures come out.  Not that I think prices will go as low as March again.

[AWW]

On 05/05/2020 at 17:51, DurhamBorn said:

Endeavour Silver,Fortuna Silver Mines,Great Panther Mining,International Tower Hill Mines,Coeur Mining,BUENAVENTURA-ADR ,

Thanks for the list @DurhamBorn . Against my better instincts, I didn't DMOR on these firms, but wanted some exposure to silver, so chucked a bit at this little lot. Now 30% up after a month and considering taking a profit. Cheers.

[Don Coglione]

14 minutes ago, PaulParanoia said:

Well done DB.  Greatly deserved after all the work you've put in.  I wasn't brave enough to go all in at the lows.  Only invested about 20% of my cash to date.  I'm hoping for another buying opportunity when the Q2 GDP figures come out.  Not that I think prices will go as low as March again.

I think they will go lower, it's just a question of when...

Q4?

[nirvana]

Wow look where Gold just bounced YET AGAIN

we're being played 

 

[Don Coglione]

29 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Anything is possible, but I'm curious as to your reasoning: why do you think they will go lower at $20 than they were at $6 WTI (ignoring the negative prices as a one off issue with the futures market liquidity)?

Cattle Prod,

If I understand your question correctly, I was referring to the broad market, not exclusively to the oilies (for which I respect hugely your insider knowledge!).

[SillyBilly]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I think they will go lower, it's just a question of when...

Q4?

I think the market is drunk on a v-shaped recovery that ain't happening. Ultimately we can see money printing inflates stock prices (so I buy into this thread fully) but I see at least 1 more round of panic and fear. As I don't think we've seen the "dislocation" aspect of this economic event hit as yet - even Joe Bloggs is currently supported by schemes like furlough. Retail, travel and hospitality is about to dip back in and inspect the damage. To get from here to there (whatever "there" may be) it will clearly be very painful to the wider public, most of this pain has been deferred so far as I see it. Doesn't matter how much gov print it won't create 3 million jobs in 6 months once furlough stops so awful headlines are coming. And so I see sentiment taking the markets down heavily and below March to reflect the disaster of Q2 and also the probability that Jan 20 economic levels are 24 months+ away. Money printing bringing them back up to crazy levels once more but into 2021. Fundamentals don't matter anymore and current prices aren't a "bargain" based on current earnings stocks are firmly back in the hyper bubble, 10% off highs or not.

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I think the market is drunk on a v-shaped recovery that ain't happening. Ultimately we can see money printing inflates stock prices (so I buy into this thread fully) but I see at least 1 more round of panic and fear. As I don't think we've seen the "dislocation" aspect of this economic event hit as yet - even Joe Bloggs is currently supported by schemes like furlough. Retail, travel and hospitality is about to dip back in and inspect the damage. To get from here to there (whatever "there" may be) it will clearly be very painful to the wider public, most of this pain has been deferred so far as I see it. Doesn't matter how much gov print it won't create 3 million jobs in 6 months once furlough stops so awful headlines are coming. And so I see sentiment taking the markets down heavily and below March to reflect the disaster of Q2 and also the probability that Jan 20 economic levels are 24 months+ away. Money printing bringing them back up to crazy levels once more but into 2021. Fundamentals don't matter anymore and current prices aren't a "bargain" based on current earnings stocks are firmly back in the hyper bubble, 10% off highs or not.

Thanks, SillyBilly, you said it all.

 

[Barnsey]

10 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I think the market is drunk on a v-shaped recovery that ain't happening. Ultimately we can see money printing inflates stock prices (so I buy into this thread fully) but I see at least 1 more round of panic and fear. As I don't think we've seen the "dislocation" aspect of this economic event hit as yet - even Joe Bloggs is currently supported by schemes like furlough. Retail, travel and hospitality is about to dip back in and inspect the damage. To get from here to there (whatever "there" may be) it will clearly be very painful to the wider public, most of this pain has been deferred so far as I see it. Doesn't matter how much gov print it won't create 3 million jobs in 6 months once furlough stops so awful headlines are coming. And so I see sentiment taking the markets down heavily and below March to reflect the disaster of Q2 and also the probability that Jan 20 economic levels are 24 months+ away. Money printing bringing them back up to crazy levels once more but into 2021. Fundamentals don't matter anymore and current prices aren't a "bargain" based on current earnings stocks are firmly back in the hyper bubble, 10% off highs or not.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

Thanks for the list @DurhamBorn . Against my better instincts, I didn't DMOR on these firms, but wanted some exposure to silver, so chucked a bit at this little lot. Now 30% up after a month and considering taking a profit. Cheers.

Yes they have done very nicely,they had a good beta to silver even if horrid managers/reserves etc in many cases.If the silver call had been wrong they would of bent us over and rogered us .Luckily it wasnt.

[SillyBilly]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

One thing I am very interested about is how Joe Public will react if markets do completely distort relative to the pain on Main Street. It won't be a good look, at all. We had Occupy Wall Street last time out, what is to come this time around? 

You can't print an economy over night, the thrust of this thread so far as I understand it is a gradual transition and a move from disinflation to inflation. That doesn't account for the sharp effect this will have on jobs and living standards in the immediate term. I think we could see interesting headlines if twice within 15 years the "rich" are seen to escape unscathed from a major economic shock while reports of stocks surging to new highs each month under a back drop of record lay offs. It would be interesting to discuss this because how do the government control the narrative here? They can't print an arc furnace tomorrow, furloughing will have to end not least because those non-furloughed will not tolerate it. Interesting times. 

[Chewing Grass]

If you want to see the burd start from the beginning, however she is a unnecessary distraction.

 

[Barnsey]

Interestingly the NS&I website is having issues due to “much heavier traffic than normal”, lots of complaints on Twitter from customers trying to pull their money out...

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Interestingly the NS&I website is having issues due to “much heavier traffic than normal”, lots of complaints on Twitter from customers trying to pull their money out...

And our Premium Bonds winnings being much lower than average this month - coincidence?

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"Coronavirus sparks Biggest monthly Fall in UK house prices since 2009"

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-property-prices-coronavirus-impact-housing-trends-down-fall-how-much-nationwide-072339863.html

 

@Barnsey @sancho panza AND other folks, Here's what you've been waiting for...MUSIC to ya hear-holes!

 

AND this is from a Tom Belger W***** WHO goes on and on about FOREVER HPI property ONLY ever goes UP!

 

So THINGS MUST be Dire in the housing market!

 

SH*T... I  better get me skates on and rent me room out QUICK!

Ah but what is Miles Shipside (Rightmove) saying, thats what matters...probably the inverse of their shares! :-)

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This thread really helps me focus thoughts and learn from others.I think at the very least its been useful for people.

Well in all my time trading the lowest profit my portfolio has been is plus 25%, so I am happy to share my `Pearls of Wisdom` with you and others if you wish?...But as always DYOR!

NOTE I have been trading since 16 Mar 2020 and only have five stocks in my portfolio so far :-)

[Barnsey]

8 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"Coronavirus sparks Biggest monthly Fall in UK house prices since 2009"

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-house-property-prices-coronavirus-impact-housing-trends-down-fall-how-much-nationwide-072339863.html

 

@Barnsey @sancho panza AND other folks, Here's what you've been waiting for...MUSIC to ya hear-holes!

 

AND this is from a Tom Belger W***** WHO goes on and on about FOREVER HPI property ONLY ever goes UP!

 

So THINGS MUST be Dire in the housing market!

 

SH*T... I  better get me skates on and rent me room out QUICK!

Knight Frank seem to be doing most of the firefighting at the moment.

The house I was interested in was a no go, owner would only take £3k off instead of the £30k I was after, definitely for the best, it’s still on for sale of course.

Have made enquires about a couple others stating our strong position but apprehension of economic downturn, both replies from the estate agents have said that the market is buzzing and no price drops yet.

What I am seeing now is a flood of properties to the market, many of which went sold STC late last year or early this year. I’m following the market closely but taking a step back now until after the end of the furlough scheme and further 3 month mortgage holiday extension, so end of October.

[Popuplights]

6 hours ago, Hardhat said:

and RDSB (-16%). Both just timing errors.

Snap. 

[Popuplights]

36 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Interestingly the NS&I website is having issues due to “much heavier traffic than normal”, lots of complaints on Twitter from customers trying to pull their money out...

Hardly surprising with their fucking derisory rates