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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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TheCountOfNowhere
11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Raise interest rates

There's always a contrarian....I think the bankers would rather see systematic collapse than do this.

They have a new paradigm they think will offer up prosperity for all (them), they will own all the assets, therefore all the power and people.

Power is getting in the way of the markets.  This is not a normal cycle IMHO.

I hope I am wrong. I  usually am.  

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Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

There's always a contrarian....I think the bankers would rather see systematic collapse than do this.

They have a new paradigm they think will offer up prosperity for all (them), they will own all the assets, therefore all the power and people.

Power is getting in the way of the markets.  This is not a normal cycle IMHO.

I hope I am wrong. I  usually am.  

My understanding of these threads is that they will raise, but never catch up with inflation 

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TheCountOfNowhere
15 minutes ago, Loki said:

My understanding of these threads is that they will raise, but never catch up with inflation 

Inflation's good for the asset owners, bad for the poor...Who runs the system.

 

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5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Inflation's good for the asset owners, bad for the poor...Who runs the system.

 

[Redacted]

Anyway, here is True Contrarian's latest piece

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2020/06/buy-on-sound-of-cannons-sell-on-sound.html

Quote

From my largest to my smallest position I currently am long GDXJ, the TIAA-CREF Traditional Annuity Fund, SIL, bank CDs, money-market funds, GDX, I-Bonds, GOEX, BGEIX, RGLD, WPM, SAND, and SILJ. I am completely sold out of Brazilian shares, energy shares, shipping, other emerging markets, and numerous other equity funds which I had been aggressively accumulating in March through mid-May 2020.

 

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Bobthebuilder
12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Inflation's good for the asset owners, bad for the poor...Who runs the system.

 

I quote, The System Maintains.

"Law & order, throughout the land, on which our future's already planned, to
Serve the leaders quest for power, to remember our position, to respect that
Shower, who decide the masses the rich v the poor, the left and the right
They create civil war, This is forced upon us from birth until death, we've
Heard of freedom, but it Just don't exist Systematic force rules right
Across the land, and if you don't want their future then you've got to make
A stand, everday we support the shower, the office boy, the dole girl, gets
Taxed by the hour. There ain't no possession, no need for pride, you're
Just a human being, so punch that shit aside Position and status Is the trick
They use on you and If you try to be yourself, they'll beat you black and
Blue, divide and rule is their method of attack, a clever f**king trick to
Hold the people back, fight one another and you f**k yourself fool, so If
You're looking for the answer then the answer is you"

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53084853

The UK's biggest building society has tripled the minimum deposit it will ask for from first-time buyers.

The Nationwide will lower its ceiling for mortgage lending to new customers in response to the coronavirus crisis.

It said the change, from Thursday, was due to "these unprecedented times and an uncertain mortgage market".

First-time buyers are likely to be the most significantly affected because they often have smaller amounts saved to get on the property ladder.

Nationwide has reduced the proportion of a home's value that is willing to lend from 95% to 85%.

So for example, if a property costs £100,000, a new buyer would now need a £15,000 deposit rather than a £5,000 deposit.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's all well and good DB.  You can celebrate if you like but we all know the Bankers are robbing the people and every penny you or I make is coming off some people bastards back.

Nothing to celebrate there for me.

P.S. I've currently made -£500 :P:P on my investments.

PPS. Just check on my physical hold holding, I keep it tucked away like Papillion.  I hold small amount now, in case of emergencies, up 50%, should have gone balls deep before the Brexit vote.  My silver holidays, down 10%.  The VATs the killer but at least I'll have some coinage to throw to peasants as a ride my horse through the countryside after melt down.

 

 

Yep,its coming off every person who works for their money,or/and has saved their past labour.However such is life.My problem is to protect my own family,and hopefully help others to at least try to navigate a bit better.Iv noticed the government is chucking more and more at "the poor" now sending them free money for food on top of their massive benefits.Them and the bankers are robbing the workers,but they arent robbing me anymore,im not working and paying pretty much zero to them.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

should have gone balls deep before the Brexit vote.  My silver holidays, down 10%.  The VATs the killer

Go to coininvest.com for VAT free silver Britannias, whether Brexit will affect it or not I don't know.

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5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My problem is to protect my own family,and hopefully help others to at least try to navigate a bit better.

You have done more than your fair share of helping spread the knowledge to prepare.  I am running out of sympathy for other people, frankly.  When I try and discuss this I've never had anyone show any further interest.  Utterly bovine.

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TheCountOfNowhere
19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,its coming off every person who works for their money,or/and has saved their past labour.However such is life.My problem is to protect my own family,and hopefully help others to at least try to navigate a bit better.Iv noticed the government is chucking more and more at "the poor" now sending them free money for food on top of their massive benefits.Them and the bankers are robbing the workers,but they arent robbing me anymore,im not working and paying pretty much zero to them.

I 100% agree DB, I just dont think it's worth celebrating.

I mostly buy into what you say now ( though everyone should have waited for the crash before buying ) and I can see it playing out how you say barring the fact the squealing establishment will do whatever they can to avoid it so I would like to ask everyone what they think of my position ( no trolls please, this is a serious matter and I can't help the fact you piled into BTL )

I've knocked up a pie chart of all my families financial holdings, this was as of last year and I hold more shares now and the cash just keeps going up ( did anyone explain compound interest to the BTLsters ? )

image.png.cdd0b886ae3acab6ff24fc87a53359f2.png

Some of this is tied up going to my children and it ignores a sizable inheritance we might collect one day but I'd rather that wasn't for a couple of decades at least so have discounted that.

The big green wedge is cash though you could argue some of the NS&I bonds ( i only found out recently that they roll them over when they expire which is handy ) /Premium bonds are cash too, so maybe 60% cash all told.  I was lucky to be able to collect on the NS and I index linked certs when they were available which I think is a life saver for me.

The big green wedges is not a small amount of cash and needs to go somewhere at some point fairly soon, mostly likely into a 3 houses in 3 different countries, that's the plan at least.  I've opened a SIPP this year and am trying to time moving £40K into that. I'll most likely do that for the next 4 years.  I've avoided paying much into pensions over the years as a) It's a ponzi and b) I was never going to get to collect on that ponzi and c) it's a ponzi

Any comments ?

What would you change ?

Would you do anything differently right now ?

This is for real, no bullshitting.  Genuinely concerned, like most of us here, for the future, especially that of out families.

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TheCountOfNowhere
16 minutes ago, Loki said:

Go to coininvest.com for VAT free silver Britannias, whether Brexit will affect it or not I don't know.

Is that help for you or in your hand ?

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's all well and good DB.  You can celebrate if you like but we all know the Bankers are robbing the people and every penny you or I make is coming off some people bastards back.

Nothing to celebrate there for me.

P.S. I've currently made -£500 :P:P on my investments.

PPS. Just check on my physical hold holding, I keep it tucked away like Papillion.  I hold small amount now, in case of emergencies, up 50%, should have gone balls deep before the Brexit vote.  My silver holidays, down 10%.  The VATs the killer but at least I'll have some coinage to throw to peasants as a ride my horse through the countryside after melt down.

 

 

 

ARR...Papillon, My all time FAVOURITE film, @TheCountOfNowhere check this clip out it will cheer ya up!!!xD

 

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The Idiocrat
2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

This is where I wonder if a transfer out of a DB pension is such a good idea..ok the transfer values can be good, and it looks as though this guy didn't diversify, but the DB acts like an insurance/annuity giving you a safe-ish guaranteed income You can then play the stock market knowing that whatever happens you have a safety net...or perhaps it just reflects my personality?!

This is exactly the conclusion I came to. The transfer value was great, but if I got it wrong I'd be in deep shit. And I don't trust politians/CBs not to come up with some cuntish scheme that prevents what should happen happening. So best hedge and leave the pension there.

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20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Thanks ill have a look 

Watch the premium, physical is incredibly expensive at the minute.

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TheCountOfNowhere
4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Watch the premium, physical is incredibly expensive at the minute.

Without the vat its what i paid 2 years ago 

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7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Watch the premium, physical is incredibly expensive at the minute.

Reassuringly expensive.  And reassuringly available. xD

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3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Now for fear of `poking a sleeping lion with a stick` :-), its interesting that you cite The Monevator as he is of the opinion that passive rather than active investing is more effective , although The Accumulator on the same site gives a nice counterpoint....

No problem.  I quoted Monevator in relation to something completely different from the to-me age old boring topic of active versus passive investing.  I merely cited something (floor v upside) that made sense for me which I personally appreciated.  I'm not slightly interested in trying to convince anyone of anything. Apart from my separate trading activities, I've clearly stated I personally do not follow an active approach.  More importantly to me is I've tried to highlight the idea that there maybe many other possibly more important considerations.  For example, DB's recent post on that guy's portfolio haircut maybe highlights sequence risk.  The forum to me is just an exchange of ideas for open minds to consider in their personal quests to improve performance. 

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3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I remember @DurhamBorn making the prediction that more companies would start to raise equity rather than issue bonds.  

The current Hertz stock price madness, especially given the new stock issue approved by the judge, makes me wonder if this a good way for bond holders to cash out at 100 cents on the dollar.

Your post also reminded me of Keiser's warning about the privatisation of the stock market - who says new dilutive stock issues need to go to all stock holders?  Happened already, justified on the grounds of expediency.

Impoverishment and serfdom await?

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10 minutes ago, Harley said:

The current Hertz stock price madness, especially given the new stock issue approved by the judge, makes me wonder if this a good way for bond holders to cash out at 100 cents on the dollar.

That is a very good point! 

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2 hours ago, Loki said:

When I try and discuss this I've never had anyone show any further interest.  Utterly bovine.

It seems easy to leave this room and get into trouble in the real world!  Case in point was a relative who took exception to me discussing her recent investment with her husband over a pint.  I was focussed on practical risk mitigation (e.g. a likely change of tax rules) whereas she was focussed on a perceived slur to her investing prowess.  I don't often poke my head above the parapet (thank heavens for this relief valve) for good reason!  It often pays at times of despair to reflect on how far you've come in somewhat controlling your investing demons.  No place for emotion, hence the need for pizza talk!  And bargains, where is the man?

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