Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

....makes me realize even more how fortunate I am then!

See, this is the "narrative" which does my head in!  You are deemed "fortunate", "lucky", or "privileged" rather than we are deemed "unfortunate" (or more accurately "swindled" or "screwed") in having a (DB based!) Administrative Cartel which has held rates so low (for their own ends) we cannot buy an similar performing annuity.  DB types get slated while the true villains walk off scott free.  It's almost like they employ a load of bots (or willing fools) to promulgate this narrative to protect themselves.  At least such behaviour is becoming more obvious now what with CV, BLM, etc (except the fact that it becoming more obvious could be a worrying sign of their confidence).  When the size of a pie shrinks, those in it moronically start fighting over the scraps rather than challenge the baker as to why!

And chasing off the manipulative single issue victim hood identity politics a bit further, good on you for getting a DB scheme.  You may or not be better off than me but life is a kaleidoscope of fortune and I'm undoubtedly much more handsome than you! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
TheCountOfNowhere
7 hours ago, JMD said:

Count that sounds risky, particularly with the amount of cash to outlay to enable buying 3 houses, as I assume there would be no/little mortgage possible for purchases abroad? But houses in which countries are you planning? After all i'd think that there is big risk of foreign governments turning against non-dom assets, particularly property, which could only be a vote winner. So new taxes, etc. Especially with nationalist governments and poupulist sentiment on the rise.

There would be no mortgages required, I have much cash to lose hence why I am a worried man. I have thought about your points but and it's a fair point to think about.  We were thinking Italy/Spain and Ireland.  After this month I dont plan to live in the UK again.  We did think about a nice villa in Turkey at one point, even went to the bother of doing re reccy, they are giving them away and some of them are fantastic, but it was too risky for my liking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere
29 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Get thee some crypto.

Assuming DB's roadmap comes to pass and we enter systemic collapse in 10 years, *now* is the time to think about insurance.

I'm thinking in terms of: what replaces fiat when the Really Big Kahuna hits? A new global fiat, with global governance? Unlikely, looks like we're entering a period of sustained deglobalisation, and I doubt the international community will be capable of the level of cooperation required to pull it off. Besides, the credibility of the CB model will have taken a death blow by then.

PMs? Quite possible - you've got some, good.

Crypto? Possibly. A lot could go wrong for BTC between now and then. What if it turns out China controls more than 50% of hash rate in some mad Wizard of Oz moment? What if the usual suspects figure out how to manipulate spot BTC prices via derivatives?

*If* BTC is still standing after those trials, it's a strong candidate to have a central role in the post RBK system, IMO as a settlement layer i.e. reserve bank function - transaction throughput isn't sufficient for everyone to use it to pay for a tank of hydrogen on their flying car.

DYOR, but me personally I'm hodling approx 10% in BTC as a not-so-small bet at long odds for a big stake in what comes after.

I need to buy more PMs, I know that, I'll look at the VAT free silver today for sure.

I might have another look at crypto again but I am not convinced by them, buy them at the wrong time and you lose a fortune but a small holding wouldn't hurt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere
12 hours ago, Loki said:

Go to coininvest.com for VAT free silver Britannias, whether Brexit will affect it or not I don't know.

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jamtomorrow
1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

Is that BPP price "at the checkout"? IIRC when I checked last time, VAT on "for delivery" orders magically appeared at the last minute

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

That's the vaulted price, not for delivery. You then have vaulting fees on top. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jamtomorrow
14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I might have another look at crypto again but I am not convinced by them, buy them at the wrong time and you lose a fortune but a small holding wouldn't hurt.

Averaging in should smooth off some of the volatility - I bought an extra 5% Feb->Apr this year using weekly purchases. Average achieved was £6K on a range of £4.6K to £7.5K

Way I think about crypto: there will only ever be 20 million or so bitcoins mined, so with say 2 billion housholds in the world your "rightful share" is 0.01BTC. In other words, bag yourself 1BTC now and the payoff could be to put your household in 100x better position than average (*if* BTC pans out - *if*).

Using land as an analogy - 60 million acres in the UK, 20 million households. How does 300 acres sound?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

The cheapest way to buy Physical Silver is to go down to your local auction and buy Sterling Silver spoons,forks and trays for as close to spot as possible.

Bugger, I've been going to the wrong Spoons!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere
34 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

 

That's the vaulted price, not for delivery. You then have vaulting fees on top. 

Those are both delivery prices if I'm not mistaken.

I'm not so keen on the someone else pretending to hold you PMs thing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TheCountOfNowhere
54 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Is that BPP price "at the checkout"? IIRC when I checked last time, VAT on "for delivery" orders magically appeared at the last minute

A picture/1000 words

 

image.thumb.png.5e59eaadea48a12e71c10450fdee5f84.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

That's the vaulted price, not for delivery. You then have vaulting fees on top. 

I believe vaulted is VAT free until you remit them to the UK (not sure what you then pay the VAT on, the initial or current value) for that Irish supplier.  IMO vaulted is a bit better than an ETF but not the same as a personal holding, but then I would not like too large a physical holding and a UK safety deposit box is not as good as it was.  Vaulted also facilitates overseas storage FWIW.  Vault fees on small holdings seems a pain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I just had a look, their price for silver brits is

from £20.64 

Bullion by post is:

from £17.60

For 100 coins it's approx 2150 versus 2100  including delivery.

Am I missing something ?

Yes  the fact that is not a delivered price (VAT FREE for Storage - 1oz Silver Britannia Coin) and £17.60 is for 1000+ coins

Your silver will be vaulted on a dynamically allocated basis meaning your investment will always be legally yours, fully insured and professionally vaulted, but unlike our allocated storage your bullion is not individually packaged whilst in storage.

This is the link you want
 

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/silver-coins/britannia-silver-ounce/1oz-silver-britannia-best-value/
https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/britannia/1-oz-britannia-silver-coin-2020/

I'd contact CI and see what price they can do for 100+ coins.  I buy 25 at a time so the scale works for me

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Inigo said:

They may well be VAT free, but as far as I can tell, they just bump up their retail price to match other vendor's VAT included price.  End result for the purchaser appears to be the same.

Cool don't use them then

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Harley said:

See, this is the "narrative" which does my head in!  You are deemed "fortunate", "lucky", or "privileged" rather than we are deemed "unfortunate" (or more accurately "swindled" or "screwed") in having a (DB based!) Administrative Cartel which has held rates so low (for their own ends) we cannot buy an similar performing annuity.  DB types get slated while the true villains walk off scott free.  It's almost like they employ a load of bots (or willing fools) to promulgate this narrative to protect themselves.  At least such behaviour is becoming more obvious now what with CV, BLM, etc (except the fact that it becoming more obvious could be a worrying sign of their confidence).  When the size of a pie shrinks, those in it moronically start fighting over the scraps rather than challenge the baker as to why!

And chasing off the manipulative single issue victim hood identity politics a bit further, good on you for getting a DB scheme.  You may or not be better off than me but life is a kaleidoscope of fortune and I'm undoubtedly much more handsome than you! :)

I forgot to mention, this to me is an example of the new "Political Economy".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sancho panza
On 17/06/2020 at 11:27, Majorpain said:

No guns so far, Gentlemans rule to stop things escalating too much.

That doesn't mean that you cant do some real damage with bats and stones, some of which are starting to resemble WW1 trench melee weapons with nails etc.

Something's not being mentioned here.I read that the Indians got reinforcements from their base two miles away after their OC got whacked.There's no way they wouldn't have come back tooled up to the nines.Especially if the OC isn't there and it's looking like a survival fight.

I also doubt this whole patrolling without weapons.

I suspect there's a been a firefight and noone wants to admit it.

On 17/06/2020 at 11:35, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza he Fed wanted the dollar down and they still do.Fed has unlimited ability in disinflation to pump until the dollar falls.Fed works on the plumbing,the markets,the real economy in that order usually,but this time they are pumping into the plumbing AND monetizing government debt.The dollar isnt falling because of the monetary action,but because of the fiscal action being mostly monetized.The market is saying,oh you want inflation then?

It's intriguing to wathc.I was chatting to a friend this morning and we were talking about when the printing will stop/when will the rally peter out.My view and I maintian it is that the Fed will do as reasoned through on here,print until it can't ie inflation is running.When the Fed can't print any more then I think the Big K will be inbound.The solvency event.

thought provoking omment in bold. so basically you're saying the amount of printing isn't causing the wekness but rather the fact that the Fed and US insto's are the main buyers?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jamtomorrow
13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I like this reasoning. Liquidity injections are trumping all else, as DB has been smacking into our heads, much to the consternation of fintwit. People are marvelling aghast at the Robinhood traders bidding up US stocks, while failing to note that its just an expression of Fed lquidity, i.e. stimulus money to tens of millions of people looking to get rich quick. So the questions are (a) when will inflation start to show up, and (b) how much will cause the Fed to down tools? I'm thinking back to Carney and the like 'looking through' 5% inflation, and the Fed talking about inflation average over a number of years. Big K could be a while yet. Thoughts?

At what point does BK slip far enough into the future that it merges with RBK?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

.......I suspect there's a been a firefight and noone wants to admit it......

I'm now outing @DurhamBorn as Anthony who discussed the same thing here yesterday.....

My partner has taken a more lively interest in investing since watching Anthony.  He must be very good! :)

PS:  In other news, the radio today had a piece on the possible benefits of Vit D for CV.  Only 3 months late by DOSBODS standards!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anybody been reading Daniel Amermam's stuff? He sent out some very good stuff recently showing fairly conclusively (to my mind) the contracyclical nature of gold and stocks over secular cycles, i.e gold does much better than stocks over a whole cycle and then stocks much better than gold over a whole cycle. What's interesting is how predictable this is when looked at over the last fifty years and also the massive differences in gains over a cycle if you're invested correctly.

"With the first secular cycle, almost every two year comparison favors gold, meaning the trend was sustained for over a decade. So it isn’t just that gold strongly outperformed stocks (price only) over the 11 years from 1969 to 1980, but there was a very strong consistency to it.

The advantage shifted to stocks strongly outperforming gold with an almost equal degree of consistency from 1980 to 2000. Then from 2000 to 2012 there was a sustained and highly consistent rolling two year advantage of holding gold over stocks. And from 2012 through 2019, there was an almost completely consistent rolling two year advantage to holding stocks over gold."

Seems that gold outperformed stocks 46% of the time over the last 50 years.

Guess who's turn it is next? His analysis also shows that it's not too late if you miss the beginning of the cycle as the gains are usually spread throughout the cycle. I've got 46% of my portfolio in physical gold/silver and miners and I reckon I need more miners xD

He also thinks negative interest rates are a possibility in the US in which case bonds could go a lot further yet. Be interested in your thoughts on that DB? My understanding is that it's already the case in Europe.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago .

Bank pumps £100bn into UK economy to aid recovery

 

Bank policymakers voted 8-1 to increase the size of its bond-buying programme.

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

reformed nice guy
4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Get thee some crypto.

Assuming DB's roadmap comes to pass and we enter systemic collapse in 10 years, *now* is the time to think about insurance.

I'm thinking in terms of: what replaces fiat when the Really Big Kahuna hits? A new global fiat, with global governance? Unlikely, looks like we're entering a period of sustained deglobalisation, and I doubt the international community will be capable of the level of cooperation required to pull it off. Besides, the credibility of the CB model will have taken a death blow by then.

PMs? Quite possible - you've got some, good.

Crypto? Possibly. A lot could go wrong for BTC between now and then. What if it turns out China controls more than 50% of hash rate in some mad Wizard of Oz moment? What if the usual suspects figure out how to manipulate spot BTC prices via derivatives?

*If* BTC is still standing after those trials, it's a strong candidate to have a central role in the post RBK system, IMO as a settlement layer i.e. reserve bank function - transaction throughput isn't sufficient for everyone to use it to pay for a tank of hydrogen on their flying car.

DYOR, but me personally I'm hodling approx 10% in BTC as a not-so-small bet at long odds for a big stake in what comes after.

I agree with this evaluation. 

As we enter a multi polar world then there will be little desire to centralise currency. I think crypto will be similar to what the US dollar is in many countries, especially shitty ones, as a way to preserve wealth when trust in local currency is low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...