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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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TheCountOfNowhere
21 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

hey @TheCountOfNowhere have you watched 'The Spiders Web' yet? It's right up your street xD

:Jumping:

edit, this one to save you searching

At the twilight of the British Empire, bankers, lawyers and accountants from the City of London set up a spider's web of offshore secrecy jurisdictions that captured wealth from across the globe and funnelled it to London

makes one proud to be a British tax payer :P

 

Thanks, not seen it will watch.

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Thanks, not seen it will watch.

you'll not sleep well afterwards xD

I'm off to watch my fitness videos :ph34r:

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TheCountOfNowhere
5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

you'll not sleep well afterwards xD

I'm off to watch my fitness videos :ph34r:

10 mins in and it all sounds about right.  The landed gentry lost control for a while and they are well and truly back now.

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TheCountOfNowhere

It's worth recycling a Clement Attlee quote:  "Over and over again we have seen that there is in this country another power than that which has its seat at Westminster. The City of London, a convenient term for a collection of financial interests, is able to assert itself against the Government of the country. Those who control money can pursue a policy at home and abroad contrary to that which has been decided by the people."

 

We are being robbed by these c**ts and people think it's great.

When their ponzi comes down they wont suffer

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jamtomorrow
54 minutes ago, JMD said:

JamTomorrow, in terms of developing more green energy, isn't the economics really driven by whether the green energy produced can be stored efficiently? Isn't it true that storage technology lags way behind the production technology? Ie in terms of overnight supply to the UK national grid there is no solution at present. It seems to me that large scale battery storage isn't anywhere near where it needs to be, with 'oldy-worldy' kinetic/potential energy schemes not really able to be supply industrial demand for example.                                                                                                I ask because these types of issues do make me think that hydrogen will be used to replace most current gas use including much (haulage) transport, and nuclear will replace substantial current electricity use, with green doing the remainder - perhaps an equal 3-way split for next 30 years. This information also informs investment strategy, so crucial to know, or if can't be certain at least have a macro view. Be interested to know your thoughts, and those of TransistorMan perhaps, as I am no expert but think this topic very interesting and also probability some decent returns (jam!) to be had if a decent inv. strategy can be taken.

That's a good summary of why I'm interested in energy economics. I do think DB's macro roadmapping captures the lion's share of factors that will shape the next decade, and so in terms of crystal-ball gazing one of the most interesting questions (to me) is: what might be different this time?

My working assumption is any such "secondary" factors are going to have a marginal effect on outcomes, but in the back of my mind is the degree to which the economic system might be especially sensitive to critical parameters, and which can be hard to spot a priori . Funnily enough (topical!) even simple epidemiological models are known to exhibit "bifurcations" where the system suddenly flips into a completely different equilibrium state for a small parameter change.

To your specific point: nuclear looks nailed-on for a comeback. In EROI terms, we've been sliding towards that net energy cliff for the best part of 50 years, partly as a result of mix effects (rise of renewables, decline of nuclear), partly as a result of high-EORI resource depletion (per @Cattle Prod's "shale too early" lament). Nuclear is a *really* obvious way we could move back from the cliff, if not globally then at least at a national level to begin with. The rest just doesn't seem obviously cut & dried to me at all though (hence why I'm reading up).

I do hope the energy analyst boffins get their EROI house in order. There's just no getting away from the laws of physics, and seems like we're in dire need of a "ground truth" for understanding energy policy choices.

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TheCountOfNowhere

Some comedy for a Sunday night

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002372.html

AFTER THE BAILOUT, BAILEY PLOTS THE BANK'S EXIT STRATEGY

Now, however, Bailey is looking for a way to reverse it. He, and presumably other members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) are starting to feel uncomfortable with the size of the Bank’s balance sheet.

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Transistor Man
31 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

To your specific point: nuclear looks nailed-on for a comeback.

 Nuclear is a *really* obvious way we could move back from the cliff, if not globally then at least at a national level to begin with.

 There's just no getting away from the laws of physics,

Talking of leads and lags, unless we reconstitute the CEGB, UK nuclear new build will not happen at sufficient scale, and anywhere near fast enough.

11 years ago, I came to the same conclusion as @jamtomorrow

I left my job, joined the then UKs largest energy consultancy, responsible for building Sizewell B and many AGRs. After loads of training (reactor physics, reactor materials, fuel cycle, control,), New-build ground to a halt, and I was sent to France to work on fusion. Complete waste of time. 

In the 70s, after the first oil shock, France built 50+(!) PWR reactors, based on a Westinghouse design. 

It can be done, but not the way the UK has gone about it. 

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47 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

It can be done, but not the way the UK has gone about it. 

You mean borrowing from the market at 8% vs UK Government at less than 1%?

A scary amount of Hinkley Point C was debt interest.

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Transistor Man
10 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

You mean borrowing from the market at 8% vs UK Government at less than 1%?

A scary amount of Hinkley Point C was debt interest.

Yes, I mean exactly that. 

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11 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

Fracking hell. That's £750 I'll never get back.

You win some, lose some. I should have sold when I was 20% up :$

 

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re Chesapeake, there'll be a bounce tomorrow as all the Robintards shout 'let's go' and pile in xD

 

avengers.gif

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47 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Fracking hell. That's £750 I'll never get back.

You win some, lose some. I should have sold when I was 20% up :$

 

I nearly took a punt on them...only luck  I didn't

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Some comedy for a Sunday night

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002372.html

AFTER THE BAILOUT, BAILEY PLOTS THE BANK'S EXIT STRATEGY

Now, however, Bailey is looking for a way to reverse it. He, and presumably other members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) are starting to feel uncomfortable with the size of the Bank’s balance sheet.

I agree with them,im uncomfortable with the size of the balance sheet,,,,,,its needs  to be another £400 billion higher. :P

 

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On 27/06/2020 at 21:40, Castlevania said:

Does it matter? It’s the same share just listed on different exchanges. Or is there a bigger bid offer spread or something?

Not really,i just wondered why HL only offers one.I guess they would buy the other on the phone.

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TheCountOfNowhere
4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I agree with them,im uncomfortable with the size of the balance sheet,,,,,,its needs  to be another £400 billion higher. :P

 

It will be. They're lying bastards 

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47 minutes ago, Errol said:

Raoul Pal on Twitter:

 

Gold in inflation adjusted terms is 15% away from the biggest cup and handle break out you can imagine...

Image

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1277247782613639168

Keep up at the back!  Posted here by me months and months ago.  And he wants me to subscribe!

PS:  Presumably means in USD as well past that in GBP!

PPS:  Ah in inflation terms, quelle surprise!

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2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Fracking hell. That's £750 I'll never get back.

You win some, lose some. I should have sold when I was 20% up :$

 

Lost one or two hundred. Honestly, no idea exactly as I was buying few pounds at a time. Trading 212 managed to mess up their consolidation few months ago too: I should have ended up with a couple of shares but I just had zero in the end. Was going to try to work it out and complain but there is no point now I guess

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4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

That's a good summary of why I'm interested in energy economics. I do think DB's macro roadmapping captures the lion's share of factors that will shape the next decade, and so in terms of crystal-ball gazing one of the most interesting questions (to me) is: what might be different this time?

My working assumption is any such "secondary" factors are going to have a marginal effect on outcomes, but in the back of my mind is the degree to which the economic system might be especially sensitive to critical parameters, and which can be hard to spot a priori . Funnily enough (topical!) even simple epidemiological models are known to exhibit "bifurcations" where the system suddenly flips into a completely different equilibrium state for a small parameter change.

To your specific point: nuclear looks nailed-on for a comeback. In EROI terms, we've been sliding towards that net energy cliff for the best part of 50 years, partly as a result of mix effects (rise of renewables, decline of nuclear), partly as a result of high-EORI resource depletion (per @Cattle Prod's "shale too early" lament). Nuclear is a *really* obvious way we could move back from the cliff, if not globally then at least at a national level to begin with. The rest just doesn't seem obviously cut & dried to me at all though (hence why I'm reading up).

I do hope the energy analyst boffins get their EROI house in order. There's just no getting away from the laws of physics, and seems like we're in dire need of a "ground truth" for understanding energy policy choices.

Thanks JT. An energy policy might be part of the grand infrastructure plan from government that's expected this week. We might then get mention of that 'ground truth' you mention, or maybe just political murmurings about being guided by the (energy) science. I suspect something similar to the latter, so in the meantime I will hold my oil companies and commodities such as yellow cake - But it's the 'technology/engineering bit' lying between these two that I find difficult to settle on. Eg AFC energy has dropped in price so might be a potential conviction  buy but I think I need to also find a good fund to spread risk for this specialist investment sector. Any suggestions/alternate suggestions would be welcome to hear.

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33 minutes ago, Harley said:

Their cash flow statements said it all.  Wanna see a few others?

Its incredible really how we said debts become huge once you have no profits.They couldnt even pay a few million coupon.The Fed has being buying corporate debt,but i guess once you cant get an issue away its curtains.

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4 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Talking of leads and lags, unless we reconstitute the CEGB, UK nuclear new build will not happen at sufficient scale, and anywhere near fast enough.

11 years ago, I came to the same conclusion as @jamtomorrow

I left my job, joined the then UKs largest energy consultancy, responsible for building Sizewell B and many AGRs. After loads of training (reactor physics, reactor materials, fuel cycle, control,), New-build ground to a halt, and I was sent to France to work on fusion. Complete waste of time. 

In the 70s, after the first oil shock, France built 50+(!) PWR reactors, based on a Westinghouse design. 

It can be done, but not the way the UK has gone about it. 

TransistorMan, I agree and think the CEGB will return in a new, even more expanded, quango guise. Strategically it will be needed, and the last few months of government economic intervention shows I think the direction of travell. I wonder though which companies will be the biggest beneficiaries of a potential national and/or global nuclear big-build? I'm thinking in terms of the West, and where China will now be shut out, so will a raft of proven French firms be ready to take advantage (if they still exist?). I guess each nation will do their own different thing, but are there some good engineering company prospects to look out for... or will it be mainly Siemens as per usual!

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